Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Scarcity Zone of Maharashtra by
Mann-Kendall Test
Shivkumar Manikrao Kareppa1 and Atul Arvind Atre2
Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth , Rahuri : 413722
District: Ahemadnagar (Maharashtra)
ABSTRACT
The non parametric Mann- Kendall test was performed to evaluate the trend of
rainfall, evaporation, temperature (minimum and maximum) at Solapur and rainfall at
Rahuri station in the Scarcity zone of Maharashtra by using data at Solapur from 1970
to 2014) and at Rahuri from. 1975 to 2014. Out of several elements of weather,
rainfall has a key role to play in the success of dry farming, occurrence of dry spells
during rainy season is a common feature in dry land situation. Hence management of
kharif crops during drought situation is serious concern.
It is observed from the analysis of the rainfall data of Solapur that there is
probability of 27% of receiving rainfall in the range of 601-700 mm rainfall, which is
maximum; followed by 20% probability in the range of 701-801 mm rainfall. Out of
45 years, 20 years are no drought years, 15 years are mild drought years, 9 years are
moderate drought years and 1 year is severe drought year. There is increasing trend in
rainfall from January to May. The evaporation shows increasing trend only in the
month of February and in other months it no trend. The minimum temperature shows
increasing trend during the month from December to
March, whereas maximum
temperature shows increasing trend in the month of August and November to March.
It is observed from analysis of rainfall data at Rahuri that the rainfall series
shows a rising trend in 36th week only. There was a decreasing trend during 1st to 21st,
23rd, 28th, 29th, and 42nd to 52nd week. Most of the weeks during monsoon season i.e.
22nd, 24th to 27th, 30th to 35th and 37th to 41st weeks have shown no trend. Thus it can
be said that the monsoon rainfall at Rahuri in Scarcity zone of Maharashtra has no
trend.
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Key Words : Rainfall, Probability, Temperature, Kharif weekly rainfall trend,
Mann-Kendall test, scarcity zone
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1.Professor and Head of Statistics, Department of Statistics, Post Graduate Institute
2. Associate Professor of SWCE, Dr.ASCAE.
Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth , Rahuri : 413722
District: Ahemadnagar (Maharashtra)
E-mail:shivkumarmk@rediffmail.com, shivkumarmk@gmail.com, cell No.: 09860291259