Meeting Notes Committee Leader: Jamie Austin Committee: Data Work Group From Date 10:30 – 10:35 10:35 – 10:45 September 15, 2015 To Date September 29, 2015 Welcome and Introductions WECC Anti – Trust Policy Summary Review of “Thermal Plant” Data and Assumptions Generator Cost Parameters Guidance from Intertek-APTECH o Startup and Cycling Cost o Variable O&M o Ramping Penalty o Final assumptions for forced outage rates How to apply Ramp Rate Penalty in GridView? Better alignment with historic Operation Adjourn 10:45 – 11:00 11:00 – 11:30 11:30 – 11:45 11:45 – 12:00 Meeting Objectives Develop thermal plant data and assumptions for the TEPPC 2026 Common Case, starting with baseline values from the TEPPC 2024 Common Case. Welcome and Introductions Dan covered the WECC anti-trust policy. Jamie welcomed participants, reviewed the agenda and explained that WECC and NREL contracted with Intertek-APTECH Engineering in response to stakeholders concerns about thermal plant cycling caused by greater penetration of renewable resources in in their respective studies. At the request of NREL and WECC, Intertek APTECH conducted a comprehensive analysis to aggregate power plant cycling costs inputs with high and low bounds for the eight distinct groups of generator types: Hot, Warm, and Cold Start Costs o Load follow/ramping cost impacts o Base-load Variable operation and maintenance (VOM) o Base Load and Cycling Costs Then APTECH agreed that TEPPC uses the low-end cost data in public domain with some exception given “typical” values for large coal plants. The reason for just low-end data is a hedge for APTECH to protect their business. 1 Microsoft PowerPoint Presentation Jamie learned from a recent conversation with Greg Brinkman that NREL is planning on using low-end cost data in upcoming work as it is in public domain and is refraining from repeated use of both high and low values as was done previously. Guidance from Intertek-APTECH Stan explained that his presentation was a resurrection of old slides from 2011 used to provide high level summary of work by Intertek-APTECH. Microsoft PowerPoint Presentation Stan added Intertek-APTECH is a company that tracks generator maintenance costs. The need stemmed from higher wind at night resulting in base units ramping down. The APTECH work instructed on how to model associated costs. The non-fuel costs (capital & maintenance) used were representative of median – cold start costs (see slide 5, enclosed). The ramping costs from APTECH were omitted from both the TEPPC 2022 and 2024 databases due to timing issues as it relates to model capability. How to apply Ramp Rate Penalty in GridView? Jin Zhu from ABB explained, thermal unit modeling defines the operating ranges (Pmain, Pmax and associated costs). The ramping rate, Up\Down defines the unit capability to move within the hour; ramping penalty, however, controls the unit ability to respond to changes. It is modeled in Gridview as piece-wise linear function with up to 7 sections. GridView on Generation Ramping Penalty.pdf Jan asked if the penalty in terms of dollars is reported as part of O&M costs. Jin responded that it is not part of O&M; it is separate. 2 Steven asked, does ramping penalty impact the operating price? Jin responded it will affect the LMP. It is priced at the next MW (e.g., $20 LMP plus $3 ramping penalty). Steven countered; LMP is a bid price and agreed, this is the way to do it. Basically there is a layer for consideration for why to move up or down, leading to the Ramping Penalty Curve. The charge is a relatively small amount and it increases as it moves up to the higher range (as block size increases). The reverse also applies based on the same concept. Gridview allow defining seven blocks. The ramp penalty has to cover the full spectrum of dispatch range. Jin used the TEPPC 2024CC, version 1.5 case to run tests applying the “V” curve – ramping penalty costs, see diagrams showing impacts on power plants (e.g., the higher penalty the penalty is the greater swing is). Jin tried applying a $35 penalty on all large coal plants; this resulted in the cycling from Pmin to Pmax moving monthly. Steven asked if the test included look ahead to control monthly. Jin responded no, has not yet tested with look-ahead logic. Jin noted that the ramping penalty depends on first block settings--giving the program a range to slow down. We need to collect operating data and document how much the plant owner is willing to move up and down. We can develop a cost/block that can be used in the simulation. Xiaobo asked if the one block application is limiting. Jin responded that it allows for small movement. Kevin asked if multiple shapes for any time of the day are possible. He suggested that there are two types to mimic: Base loaded Base to ramp up morning and ramp down as needed Jin responded that hourly changes are temporary and can change over time…the data can be temporal as well. Ben added the following comment and question: In the APTECH report lower bound $/MW is a multiplying factor that would help to develop the “V” curve. What does the “*” under the multiply factor stand for? Jamie responded if not noted, we may need to go back to APTECH for an answer. 3 Better Alignment with Historic Operation Kevin began his presentation by explaining what the production cost model is: It economically commits and dispatches supply to serve load. There are no hard constraints. Everything is evaluated as a cost. The objective is to mimic utility operation. The rules of Production Cost Modeling: Single owner dispatch Everything is evaluated as a cost ($) WECC is composed of 38 BAAs, and each optimizes their supply to economically serve their load and contractual obligations. A modeler can only layer in constraints to mimic a desired behavior. Back-casting provides a known behavior; what inaccuracies are you willing to accept? Jamie commented that the past cannot be totally predictive of future operation. System operation is dependent on developing markets, and as such many developments (e.g., EIM, CA-SB 350 calling for 50% RPS) plus other factors will definitely impact future dispatching. Ben added that we need to be sensitive to this at this time. I appreciate your knowledge and experience but we need to use data in the public domain. What would you give the staff to work with? Kevin responded everything is evaluated based on Heat Rate and Start-up costs. The modeled start cost can be fine-tuned by running a near term year and iterating on the start cost to mimic general historic behavior. Steven noted the decision to commit a unit to meet area reserve requirement is made at the BA level. We need to have data to populate the model, to model the future dispatch. Kevin responded that BA supply commitment to serve the reserves requirement only meets that requirement while the remaining BA supply economically commits/dispatches to serve the modeled footprint (WECC). Ben added that he was not sure what data to recommend that would substitute for knowledge and experience. Jamie commented we’ve always validated consistent with number of starts typical to buckets, based on data collected from plant owners. 4 Kevin noted – the APTECH data does not make sense. Most often the contract covers for a number of starts (e.g., min per week, month, and year). The TEPPC case penalizes for every start. Kevin offered the following idea in a subsequent conversation: “If you had to select an APTECH value, moving from the cold median to the cold start/25th percentile would lower the start cost more in line with judgment, assuming the start on many of the CC will go up therefore a warm start/25th percentile would be better, if we expect daily cycling we could move to a hot start/25th percentile.” Ben concluded this can be treated as a process: 1. Start with APTECH data 2. Review the number of starts 3. Adjust going forward to individual plant; this can be done by using CEMS data Using startup cost is like using “hurdle rate”, analogues with using switches to tune the answer to a predictable outcome. Perhaps we need to run sensitivities to control some of the uncertainties as in the Kevin’s recommendation to also use costs for warm starts. APTECH started from actual physical costs, assumed to reflect known operation, leaving us with the question, what did that cover? The best approach is the hedge by adding sensitivities, rather than just using one value to predict future operation. The main question becomes how to bridge the gap between the future and today’s operation? Brathwaite, Leon In attendance at the 092915 Meeting: Company Name PAC x Lau, Elaine Larsen, Peter Le, David CEC Lee, Peter CEC Lehr, Ron VoteSolar Lindsay, Jimmy WECC Linvill, Carl LBNL Mao, Megan CEC Brownlee, Ben Beckstead, Dan Belval, Ron Energy Strategies WECC TEP Name Austin, Jamie Amjadi, Amir Alvarado, Al Anderson, Grace Baack, Jim Bailey, Michael Barbose, Galen Maracas, Kate x x Marrs, Richard McLean, Christopher Company CPUC LBNL CAISO BPA AWEA RAP SCE WWND CEC 5 McCann, Richard Broad, Diane Brathwaite, Leon Brinkman, Gregory Brooks, Donald Brown, Elise Brush, Ray Burner, Bob Carr, Tom Carvallo, Juan Pablo Charles, Gillian Chhajed, Pushkar Chisholm, Tom Colburn, Mitch Coe, Scott Cole, Brian Corum, Ken Davis, Enoch Deaver, Paul Decker, Megan Denker, Brendan Depenbrock, Fred Delleney, Mike Donnohoo, Pearl Didsayabutra, Paul Drennan, Ted Eaton, Pam Evans, Mike Ezequiel Filippi, Jim Fisher, Emily Freeman, Bryce Gazewood, Jim Green, Irina Griffin, Karen CEC NREL CPUC SPSG Western Duke Energy WIEB IID x NPCC LCG Consulting BPA IPC x NWPCC WECC CEC SRP Nevada Hydro CAISO NREL COGRID PAC SPSG Shell Energy IID First Solar NREL WYOC BLM CAISO x x x CEC Grau, Judy Gutierrez, Noe Hamilton, Roger Haenichen, Jack Hands, Betsey Harris, Gerald Harris, Kevin Harwood, Patrick Hein, Jeff Heutte, Fred Hodge, Bri-Mathias Holland, Stan Hosie, Bill IID WECC Duke Energy x x x SDG&E SCE CAISO PG&E NREL E3 SDG&E WECC Newman, Raymond Nail, George PN&M Nothstein, Greg O’Neill, Ean Pacheco, Ezquiel Pacini, Heidi Papic, Milorad Pascoe, Bill Perez, Army Piper, David CEC IID ICF IPC TREL WECC SCE Prochnik, Julia Pryor, Mark Puglia, Peter Quick, Kirha Raub, Jenika NRDC CEC CEC WECC SRP Richard, J Rowe, Sarah Rucker, Magdalena Sapp, Shawn Satchwell, Andy Schlag, Nick Schanahan, Patrick Schellberg, Ron Schilmoeller, Michael CEC OPUC IPC NWPCC Xcel Energy Simmons, Steve NWPCC Spears, Michael Satyal, Vijay Starck, Jan Stefan Stokes, Mark Tanghetti, Angela Trinh, Lan Tilghman, Henry Voisin, Nathalie Von Reis Baron, Kate x Ventyx LBNL E3 Schmidt, Jason Singh, Harliv WWND MT Reos COGRID WAPA Xcel NWEC NREL McIntosh, Henry Mejia, Roni Misca, Catalin Miller, Tom Milligan, Michael Moore, Jack Moussa, Effat Moyer, Keegan Xcel Energy WECC SDG&E OPUC x x CEC ABB Tilghman Associates NWNL PGE x x 6 Huang, Wenxiong Ibanez, Eduardo Jenka, Raub Jensen, Richard Johnson, Anders Johnson, Colby Jourabchi, Massoud Kates, David Kelly, Nancy Kennedy, Robert Ketabi, Noushin Kim, Songtae Klapka, Paul Klein, Joel Knudsen, Steve Kujala, Ben Kravchuk, Luba PLEX NREL SRP CEC BPA WECC NWPCC Nevada Hydro CEC Energy Division PAC SCE CEC BPA NWPCC CAISO x x Wang, Xiaobo Wallace, Steve Wheeler, Dan Williams, Stan White, Keith White, Stephen Weiss, Steve Woertz, Byron Wong, Lana Xiong, Lei CAISO CPS Gaelectric BPA CPUC BPA BPA WECC CEC Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) x x CAISO ABB x x x Young, Patrick Zewe, Janice Zhang, Yi Zhu, Jin Zhang, Hui Zichella, Carl NRDC 7