Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Proposed Project Scoping
Introduction
From 2010 through 2013, WECC’s Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) developed four
future scenarios for the Western Interconnection. These scenarios became the basis for four
long-term study cases included in the 2013 WECC Interconnection-wide Transmission Plan.
Each scenario followed the overall structure of evaluating uncertainties in the most significant
drivers to create four futures for the Western Interconnection which the SPSG determined to be
plausible as well as quite different from one another. The goal for developing these scenarios
was to identify strategic choices regarding transmission expansion needs that WECC and its
stakeholders may need to address in the 20-year planning horizon.
The WECC scenarios considered water availability as a constraint for resource planning in the
long-term study cases. However, in reviewing the many factors affecting water availability and
its impacts on transmission expansion planning, several stakeholders have suggested that there
could be significant value to the planning process in examining water-energy issues more
deeply. Specifically, several stakeholders have suggested that developing a scenario that
explores the relationship between energy and water could provide valuable insights for
transmission expansion planning, water distribution efficiency, planning for extreme droughts
and other issues. And, despite differing views among WECC’s broad stakeholder community on
the extent and potential causes of climate change, recent extreme weather events and the
climate projections from NOAA support the value of planning for such events and the ways in
which they could affect electric and water utility operations and bulk electric grid reliability.
Scenario Development
This document proposes that stakeholders in the Western Interconnection develop a future
scenario for the Western Interconnection that explores the nexus between water, energy and
climate change. To develop the scenario, stakeholders would:
1.) Identify a focus question. Questions that will contribute to a focus question will likely
include:

Could climate change lead to changes in water availability patterns (amount,
location, timing and costs) in the Western Interconnection?
Water-Energy-Climate Change Scenario

How might changes to temperatures, water availability and water cost in the Western
Interconnection affect electricity grid reliability, demand, generation availability, and
the need for additional transmission?

What threats might extreme wildfires pose to the existing transmission grid?

Can the risks of drought, extreme wildfires, and inaction be assessed?
2.) Identify drivers affecting the focus question. These would likely include:

Uncertainties in the extent, timing and location of precipitation and extreme wildfires;

Adequacy of the water capture, storage, treatment and transportation infrastructure;

Demand for water for agriculture, energy production, municipal uses and
commercial, industrial and residential uses;

How implementation of electric system plans, water management plans and related
policies might impact future water use and availability;

Interrelated energy and water uses for applications such as water treatment, energy
development and energy production;

Demographic shifts associated with changing climate and extreme weather events;
and

Anticipated and future carbon reduction policies such as EPA’s 111(d) rules.
3.) Develop and describe the scenario.
4.) Recommend ways that the scenario might be modelled to provide insight on electric
reliability, grid resiliency, and transmission expansion needs as well as on water
infrastructure needs;
5.) Conduct a risk assessment of the individual threats to grid reliability and water
availability (temperature and water changes), the interactive impact of those threats, and
the risks associated with inaction; and
6.) Suggest policy considerations that merit further analysis and development in the coming
years.
Collaborative Approach
While WECC (through the SPSG) has led the process for creating future scenarios for the
Western Interconnection, it is clear that other regional organizations have interests of a similar
magnitude in understanding the interrelationships between energy, water and climate change.
This proposal recommends that stakeholders develop this scenario under the joint leadership of:
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Water-Energy-Climate Change Scenario

WECC, with a particular emphasis on transmission expansion needs and grid reliability;
and

Western States Water Council (WSWC), with a particular emphasis on the conservation,
development and management of water resources.
Many other organizations also would collaborate to develop a water-energy-climate change
scenario, notably, the organizations represented by SPSG and TEPPC members, individual
states and provinces within the Western Interconnection and their energy and water staffs.
Benefits of Developing Water-Energy-Climate Change Scenario
Developing this scenario would be expected to provide a significant benefit in increased
understanding of several issues related to the water-energy-climate change nexus:
1.) Grid reliability and resiliency issues resulting from climate change impacts on water,
temperature and extreme weather events.
2.) Needs for new transmission stemming from water and climate drivers.
3.) Efficiencies from integrated water and energy planning.
4.) Cost reductions from operational coordination between water and energy systems.
5.) Water and climate-driven electric generation challenges that could affect reliability.
6.) Policies that could mitigate undesired effects of climate change.
Schedule
Stakeholders would follow the following approximate schedule for developing the water-energyclimate change scenario:
Date
Activity
June 30, 2014
Confirm leadership commitment from WECC and WSWC
July 31, 2014
Develop preparatory materials including:
September 4, 2014

Review of work completed to date by other organizations

Pre-read materials for stakeholders

Stakeholder contact list
Data gathering, stakeholder coordination, and scenario planning
workshop
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Water-Energy-Climate Change Scenario
Date
Activity
October 3, 2014
First draft of water-energy-climate change scenario
October – December, 2014
Review and revise scenario
First Quarter, 2015
Define modeling inputs for scenario
Second Quarter, 2015
Run study cases for scenario
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