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CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS
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(CONOPS)
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FOR
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INTERNATIONAL
SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION
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IN
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SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL AIR
NAVIGATION
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September 2012
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Version 2.0
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Revision
Date
Description
0.1
2-15-2011
Initial International Oriented Draft
0.2
2-25-2011
Initial Internal FAA Comments
0.3
3-7-2011
Operational & Functional Matrix added & Outline adjustments made
0.4
3-18-2011
2nd round of internal FAA comments, added Figure 6 and 4 references
in Appendix B, adjustments made to Figure 7, wording adjustments in
many sections throughout document
0.5
3-23-2011
Merged content from Sections 2 and 3 were appropriate. Changed
Section 4.2 Title, moved content at end of section to end of Forward
0.6
4-15-2011
Incorporated 314 Comments and significantly restructured the
document, especially in for the Foreword, Introduction, first three
sections, content structure for the Functional Requirements and added
Appendices A-E
0.7
4-19-2011
Final Mature Draft – Added three additional Operational and
Functional Requirements along with format spacing and some tweaks
to the verbiage of several other Functional Requirements in section 5.2
0.8
5-17-2011
Incorporated comments of international task ad hoc group Member
States & Organizations to meet Conclusion 5/19 from IAVWOPSG/5.
Updated Figures 4 and 7 and Table 4a.
0.9
6-13-2011
Incorporated additional comments from international community
received in late May and June
1.0
6-22-2011
Updated Figure 1, added a “Note” below Figure 7, 2nd round of
document formatting and editing
2.0
9-28-2012
Adjudicated and thoroughly addressed over 800 global comments.
Incorporated at least part of each of the overwhelming majority of
comments. There was a recent new requirement to follow a new
outline for all Concept of Operations documents and therefore, the
format and infrastructure of the document was overhauled.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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1
Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1
27
1.1
Background ...................................................................................................................... 1
28
1.2
Problem Statement ........................................................................................................... 3
29
1.3
Identification .................................................................................................................... 3
30
1.3.1
Operational User Need for Space Weather Aviation Services ................................. 3
31
1.3.2
User Need for Aviation-Specific Space Weather Information ................................. 4
32
1.3.3
Impacts of Space Weather on Aircraft Operations ................................................... 4
33
1.3.3.1
Communications ................................................................................................ 4
34
1.3.3.2
Navigation .......................................................................................................... 5
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1.4
2
37
Concept Overview ............................................................................................................ 7
Current Operations and Capabilities ................................................................... 9
2.1
Description of Current Operations ................................................................................... 9
38
2.1.1
Observations ............................................................................................................. 9
39
2.1.2
Analysis................................................................................................................... 10
40
2.1.3
Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 11
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2.2
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Current Supporting Infrastructure for Space Weather Products and Services ................ 11
2.2.1
Current Supporting Infrastructure from International Organizations ..................... 13
43
2.2.1.1
International Civil Aviation Organization ........................................................ 13
44
2.2.1.2
World Meteorological Organization ................................................................ 13
45
2.2.1.3
International Space Environment Service ....................................................... 13
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2.2.1.3.1 Regional Warning Centers ............................................................................. 13
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2.2.1.3.2 The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center ............................................... 14
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2.2.1.3.3 Australian Space Weather Information Services ........................................... 15
49
3
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Description of Changes ..................................................................................... 15
3.1
Proposed Service Description ........................................................................................ 17
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3.1.1
Standardizing Aviation Space Weather Information .............................................. 17
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3.1.2
Integration and Delivery of Space Weather Meteorological Services .................... 22
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Proposed Concept.............................................................................................. 23
4.1
Assumptions and Constraints ......................................................................................... 23
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4.1.1
Assumptions for Airline Industry Operations ......................................................... 23
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4.1.2
Constraints to Providing Robust Space Weather Products and Services ................ 23
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4.2
Operational Environment ............................................................................................... 23
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4.3
Operations ...................................................................................................................... 27
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4.3.1
Existing and Future Space Weather Information .................................................... 27
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4.3.2
Future Targets for Outlook Information ................................................................. 28
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4.4
Operational Requirements .............................................................................................. 30
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4.5
Supporting Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 31
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4.6
Science Benefits to Be Realized .................................................................................... 34
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4.7
Cost Benefits Associated with Polar Routes .................................................................. 34
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Space Weather Requirements for Aviation....................................................... 35
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5.1
Functional Requirements ............................................................................................... 35
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5.2
Performance Requirements ............................................................................................ 35
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5.2.1
Existing Performance Requirements....................................................................... 35
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5.2.2
New Performance Requirements ............................................................................ 35
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Operational Scenario ......................................................................................... 36
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Summary of Impacts ......................................................................................... 38
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APPENDIX A: Material List of References ............................................................................... A-1
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APPENDIX B: Definitions ......................................................................................................... B-1
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APPENDIX C: Functional and Performance Requirements ...................................................... C-1
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APPENDIX D: Space Weather Impacts on Aviation ................................................................. D-1
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APPENDIX E: Space Weather Alert and Forecast Products.......................................................E-1
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APPENDIX F: Delineating Regions of Space Weather Impact .................................................. F-1
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APPENDIX G: Bi-Lateral Agreements ...................................................................................... G-1
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APPENDIX H: Introduction to Space Weather .......................................................................... H-1
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LIST OF FIGURES
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Figure 1: Polar Routes Necessitate HF Radio Communications at High Latitudes. ...................... 6
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Figure 2: Total Traffic Density for Northern Cross-polar Routes 2000-2011 Sources:
NAVCANADA and United Airlines .............................................................................................. 7
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Figure 3: Global Space Weather Service Perform These Functions............................................... 8
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Figure 4: The RWC in Boulder has a Special Role in the “World Warning Agency,”
Acting as a Hub for Data Exchange and Forecasts. ...................................................................... 14
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Figure 5: Future Production and Communications Concept......................................................... 26
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Figure 6: Phases of Flight ............................................................................................................. 36
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Figure 7: Ladder Sequence Diagram Showing How Operational Scenarios are Depicted........... 37
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Figure 8: Convective Weather Impact Mitigation Process ......................................................... B-1
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Figure 9: The Time Scales of Solar Effects (Source: NOAA SWPC) ........................................ D-7
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Figure 10: Magnetic Latitudes Already Established for Magnetic Observatories
Around the World ........................................................................................................................ F-2
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LIST OF TABLES
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Table 1: NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackout Events .............................................. 19
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Table 2: NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale for Radiation Storm Events .................................. 20
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Table 3: NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale for Geomagnetic Storm Events............................. 21
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Table 4: User Needs to Better Understand and Mitigate SWx Impacts on Aviation Operations . 24
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Table 5: Summary of General (%) Confidence Levels in Future Forecast Products.................... 29
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Table 6: Aviation User Need Statements ...................................................................................... 31
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Table 7: SWx Information versus Decision-maker Matrices ....................................................... 33
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Table 8: Reference List ............................................................................................................... A-1
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Scope
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This Concept of Operations (ConOps) document describes the potential impact of Space Weather
(SWx) on aviation operations, the current provision of SWx information to support aviation
decision-makers, and the future concept and environment for the use of SWx information. SWx
information includes observations, analyses, and forecasts. Aviation decision-makers use SWx
information for flight planning and en route deviations. This requires knowledge, guidelines, and
information to support risk management processes within the aviation industry. This document
provides a global approach to the provision of SWx information. It conveys how SWx
information can be globally-harmonized and integrated into aviation decision-making processes.
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This ConOps communicates the overall requirements for SWx information to meet the
operational needs of various aviation decision-makers. This document describes the operational,
functional, and performance requirements for SWx information to support international air
navigation. The expectation is that the ConOps will evolve as scientific improvements in
forecasting events improve and the effects of SWx on communications, navigation, and
surveillance systems are better understood.
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This document addresses the impacts of elevated radiation levels on avionics equipment. It does
not address the possible adverse effects of exposure to elevated radiation levels on human health.
Establishing requirements for cumulative dosage rates is beyond the purview of the International
Airways Volcanic Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG).
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1.1
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INTRODUCTION
Background
Purpose
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The purpose of the ConOps is to define the requirements for the provision of SWx information
based on the intended use of that information to support air navigation. It identifies the types of
SWx information needed to mitigate hazards caused by solar events. These hazards can include
degraded avionics, degraded or disrupted communications, and navigation, and increased
radiation exposure. Although SWx impacts are global in nature, the impacts are most prevalent
in the Polar Regions. This document presents an initial set of operational, functional, and
performance requirements for acceptance by the International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO). The intent is to achieve global harmonization through a set of global standards for SWx
information.
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The ionosphere is made up of a rarified plasma zone that begins at an altitude of approximately
50 km above the Earth, is a critical medium for aviation High Frequency (HF) communications.
When its total electron density is perturbed by effects from space due to energy inputs from the
active Sun, or when intense convective terrestrial weather from the troposphere below perturbs
the ionosphere, the HF signal can be attenuated or absorbed. This can cause the signal to
disappear entirely, or diminish to an unusable, faded signal. Depending on the amount of
ionization present, radio signals interacting with the ionosphere may suffer losses (weaken) in a
process called absorption. Imagine the ionosphere to be a set of louvers. Degradation of HF
communications due to absorption is most significant when the lower ionosphere composition is
effected by solar weather events, closing the louvers. If the ionosphere is “quiet,” the louvers are
fully-open and the signal pass through easily.
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Future Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems will be based primarily on the space-based Global
Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Satellite technology is a foundation for both the US Next
Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and Europe’s Single European Sky Air Traffic
Management Research (SESAR). Therefore, any limitations or outages of the satellite systems
must be considered during flight planning and en route operations. Solar events can affect flight
operations by disrupting communications, navigation, and positioning capabilities and
endangering human health. The SWx events of greatest concern to aviation operations are those
that disrupt the operational systems and increase the radiation environment: Galactic Cosmic
Rays (GCR), Solar Energetic Particles (SEP), Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and Geomagnetic
Storms (and more directly, the ionospheric disturbances). The impacts are most acute in the Polar
Regions. Aviation decision-makers need timely and accurate forecasts for these SWx events.
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SWx already adversely affects aircraft communication, navigation, and positioning systems,
across many parts of the globe. Satellite-based navigation using GPS receivers operating on the
dayside of the Earth can be impacted over the mid-latitudes. Radio blackouts primarily affecting
HF communication frequencies are a consequence of enhanced electron densities caused by
emissions from solar flares that ionize the sunlit side of the Earth.1 Radiation exposure risk is
greatest over the poles, and lessens at lower latitudes. Observing, forecasting, and disseminating
information about the space environment is critical to aviation operations today, and it will be
even more important as the use of Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLV) in suborbital altitudes
increases in the near term (~2013).
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Objective
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The following summary reinforces the objectives of this ConOps:
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Why? Most SWx effects are global in nature. SWx phenomena affect aviation operations
(especially polar flights), degrading efficiency and elevating safety concerns for crew and
passengers. ICAO does not currently include requirements for SWx in its recommended
meteorological information. SWx impacts on aviation operations, particularly long-haul polar
routes, are increasingly a recognized part of the overall industry operating costs. As the number
of these types of flights continues to increase, the fiscal consequences of delays or diversions
grows.
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Who? The operator is the user of SWx products (The operator is a person, organization
or enterprise engaged in or offering to engage in an aircraft operation.). The avoidance of SWx
event situations en route is the responsibility of the flight crew and those responsible for
operational control of a flight. Flight Operations Centers (FOCs) try to minimize the effects of
solar events through pre-flight planning. Air Traffic Services assist flight crew members in
avoiding/reducing the impacts of SWx events on flight operations.
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How? This document describes the operational concepts to mitigate impacts of SWx on
aviation operations. This will be accomplished through the establishment of global standards for
the provision and use of SWx information. The SWx information includes the following:
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Remote Sensing helping to analyze and determine the severity of the impact on various
operational services.
1
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Manual on Space Weather Effects in Regard to International
Air Navigation (January 2011).
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In Situ Observations from many space-based and some ground-based monitoring systems
to determined when solar flares occur.
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Nowcasts/Forecasts predict when eruptions from the Sun will interact with the Earth’s
atmosphere.
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Lastly but certainly not least important, an operator’s internal Safety Management System
(SMS), Safety Risk Assessment (SRA) processes take precedence over all other processes and
will be described.
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SWx impact on aviation needs more reliable forecasting with greater lead-times and higher
confidence levels in order to increase global harmonization of information dissemination
processes and operations. This document looks at concepts attempting to mitigate aviation
operational impacts caused by various SWx phenomena on communications and navigation.
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Communications
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Problem 1: SWx can negatively affect aircraft communications.
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Impact: Lost or significantly degraded quality of continuous communications.
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Navigation
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Problem 2: SWx can negatively affect satellite-based navigation systems.
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Impact: The Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and the European Geostationary
Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) and the other ground-based augmentation systems can be
degraded to the point that its vertical guidance approach protection limit can be compromised,
and en route avionic equipage readings can become erroneous. In addition, some aspects of or all
of GNSS may be affected to some degree if the ionosphere is perturbed.
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Radiation
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Problem 3: SWx can negatively affect the performance of avionics systems.
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Impact: Radiation exposure can affect installed and handheld avionics equipage. A summary of
conceptual steps will be defined in the following sections, which identify user needs, to include
the unallocated operational functional requirements. This process allows for the analysis of SWx
observational data to be utilized more effectively through Decision Support Tools (DST) then
perhaps information retrieved at face-value by SWx service providers refining planned or
ongoing operational scenarios.
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1.3
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1.3.1 Operational User Need for Space Weather Aviation Services
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Use of polar flight routes creates efficiencies in air travel by vastly reducing travel distances and
required fuel (Figure 1). As Figure 2 shows, airlines are increasingly relying on those polar
routes, necessitating accurate and timely observation and forecasting of SWx to mitigate impacts
on aviation industry operations, on which global economies depend. SWx adversely affects
aviation operations through the loss of communication and navigation, and negative health
effects on passengers and crew. Though these impacts are more prevalent over the Polar
Regions, their impacts on communications, navigation, and radiation exposure extend in various
degrees to other parts of the globe and to other applications.
1.2
Problem Statement
Identification
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1.3.2 User Need for Aviation-Specific Space Weather Information
Specific SWx information was gathered from a number of sources by various means, including
recommendations, guidance material, and workshops/working groups led by subject matter
experts. An initial consensus was reached at the last joint World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and ICAO Divisional Meeting in 2002, which stated the need to consider SWx a
hazardous impact to aviation operations.
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As part of a Policy Program Study, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and
SolarMetrics through the ad hoc The Cross Polar Trans East Air Traffic Management Providers
Working Group (referred to as the CPWG), published a policy workshop report in March 2007
on “Integrating Space Weather Observations and Forecasts into Aviation Operations.” This
report recommended that “the aviation industry needs to clearly define its requirements for
space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making
process.” A sub-group of the CPWG was selected to lead the process for defining these user
service needs. The CPWG provides a forum for Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) and
operators to meet and explore solutions for improving air traffic services to aircraft that operate
between North America and Asia via Cross Polar and Russian Trans East routes. The CPWG
established a SWx sub-group to focus on aviation SWx user service needs, and the
aforementioned task force focused on SWx issues.2
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The IAVWOPSG noted at its fourth meeting in Paris in September 2008 that there was not yet a
complete understanding among the user community of SWx products and information that could
be helpful in support to them of their operational decisions. The IAVWOPSG agreed to
formulate Conclusion 4/29, a directive to develop SWx training guidance material before
formally introducing aviation requirements related to SWx.
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1.3.3 Impacts of Space Weather on Aircraft Operations
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The operator’s responsibility for safe and economical operations depends on accurate and timely
forecasting for effective decision making. Critical to this process is the efficient information
transfer from the forecaster to the decision-makers: operators, flight crew members, air traffic
services, and government agencies. The variability of SWx event duration, frequency, and
severity makes forecast accuracy and its timing information critical.
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1.3.3.1 Communications
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SWx events can impair communication systems by perturbing the ionosphere, which is a key
part to HF communications for aviation. HF frequencies need the ionosphere to reflect the signal
back to the Earth. All communications with en route aircraft poleward of 78No and 60So latitude
can be lost during a disruptive SWx event. The hemispheric latitudes are different is because
60So is based on the vast open distances in the southern hemisphere, over which aircraft fly that
have other issues beyond being able to see geostationary satellites. It was a purely a practical
operational choice. For satellite communications, the higher frequencies that must pass through
the ionosphere in order to allow for satellite communications may suffer loss of power or
frequency stability.
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As flight paths venture poleward, they lose their communication link with the geosynchronous
communication satellites due to the Earth’s curvature, and conventional HF radio communication
must be employed. Solar storms can render HF communications inoperable for periods of
minutes, hours or even several days at a time. These disruptions in the ionosphere’s electron
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Space Weather Sub-Group of the Cross Polar Working Group, “Integrating Space Weather Observations &
Forecasts into Aviation Operations, Aviation Space Weather User Requirements,” Version 3.02 (November 2010).
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density can occur to the point that radio signals can no longer be bounced back to the aircraft,
and are driven by the size and location of the disturbance on the Sun that triggers these events.
When communication disruptions at high latitudes occur along the limited polar routes,
additional cost or delay can be introduced as air traffic controllers reduce air traffic flow rates by
increasing the separation distances between aircraft flying at similar altitudes. This necessary
safety precaution often reduces the overall aviation industry efficiency and capacity along polar
routes, affecting profit margins for the airlines. There are polar orbiting Iridium spacecraft that
offer L-band communication frequencies for additional cost, and that partially fill this
communication gap. But as of today, most airlines are not currently equipped to take advantage
of that capability.
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Furthermore, there are both international recommendations and civil aviation authority
requirements (see below) that communication be of good quality and take place continuously.
Therefore, it is imperative that observations, forecasts, and SWx alerts and warnings be provided
to the crew in order to mitigate potential problems with radio HF and satellite communications.
Reliable communications are a vital component of safe and efficient air travel.
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The following recommendation (not a requirement) from ICAO Annex 11 describes the
importance of international flight communications:3
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Whenever practicable, air-ground communication facilities for flight information service
should permit direct, rapid, continuous and static-free two-way communications.
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It is clear from excerpts within the ICAO Annex 2, that reliable communication is required at all
times for aircraft on controlled flights:4
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For two-way communication either possible according to paragraph 3.6.5.1, or
communications failure rules according to paragraph 3.6.5.2 have to be followed.
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There are current FAA requirements for domestic airline flight communications (crucial for
passing weather information).5
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§ 121.99 Requires reliable and rapid communication over the entire route between
the airplane and the appropriate dispatch office and between each airplane and the
appropriate air traffic control unit.
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1.3.3.2 Navigation
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Satellite-based navigation can be affected at all latitudes, but occurs with more frequency at or
near the poles and equator. SWx activity has disrupted the FAA’s WAAS by degrading its ability
to provide vertical guidance protection limit for time periods of many hours to more than half a
day.6 Satellite-based navigation is a key element in performance-based navigation as part of the
global Air Traffic Management (ATM) concept. The implementation planned for NextGen and
SESAR is in support of global ATM. Thus the need to monitor and predict SWx is more
important than ever.
3
ICAO Annex 11, Chapter 6, Air Traffic Services Requirements for Communications, paragraph 6.1.2.2.
ICAO Annex 2, Rules of the Air, To the Convention on International Civil Aviation, Chapter 3, Ninth Edition
(July 1990).
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5
Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 14 (Aeronautics and Space).
Report of the Assessment Committee for the National Space Weather Program, FCM-R24-2006, Office of the
Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) (June 2006).
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5
UAL POLAR ROUTES
WASHINGTON
82 N
PIRE
L
CHICAGO
MAGUN
ABERI
NALIM
DEVID
RAMEL
NIKIN
ORVIT
BEIJING
HONG KONG
SHANGHAI
TOKYO
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Figure 1: Polar Routes Necessitate HF Radio Communications at High Latitudes.7
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Using polar routes necessitates HF radio communications at high latitudes (circular area in
Figure 1). However, they are frequently disrupted by SWx events.
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Figure 2 depicts the dramatic growth in cross-polar flights leading to increased aviation industry
vulnerabilities.
7
Michael Stills, United Airlines, “Polar Operations and Space Weather,” presentation to the space weather
enterprise forum, (June 21, 2011).
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2000
7999
6357
5308
3731
2053
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884
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0
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1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Figure 2: Total Traffic Density for Northern Cross-polar Routes 2000-20118
Sources: NAVCANADA and United Airlines
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1.4
Concept Overview
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A SWx service provides SWx information and/or products to the user. This service would
include acquired or input data and interfaces across any existing or new implemented system.
Services are defined in terms of the information they present. A SWx system, on the other hand,
produces or generates SWx information or products, to be disseminated to the user, or another
system. Global Space Weather Service requirements will be allocated to provider services, who
then allocate requirements to weather systems.
8
Michael Stills, United Airlines, in support of FAA Concept of Operations for International SWx Information,
presentation at the AMS 9th Symposium on SWx (January 2012).
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7 000
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The objective of a SWx service is to provide information to the global community relating to
SWx conditions that may adversely affect communications, navigation, equipment, or humans.
This information is of the following types:
a. Space Weather Observation Information
Information
c. Space Weather Forecast Information
b. Space Weather Climatology
d. Space Weather Analysis Information
Hierarchy
Global Space Weather
Service
Observation Service
Climatology Service
Sample Requirement
Operational
What Must Be
Done
Global Space Weather
Service
Operational
What Must Be
Done
Space
Weather Service
Space Weather Service
shall provide forecasts
for space weather
Functional
What Data Is
Produced
Space Weather System
Space Weather Service
shall generate space
weather forecasts
The GSWS shall provide
space weather forecasts
Forecast Service
Analysis Service
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Figure 3: Global Space Weather Service Perform These Functions
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It is important to establish a distinction between operational and functional requirements.
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The operational requirements are high-level requirements that define what must be done, are
written from the operator’s perspective, and constitute what operations must do to provide the
SWx service.
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The high-level functional requirements describe the information to be produced or generated/
integrated by a generic, implementation-independent SWx system.
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A proposed SWx Service would present the following standardized SWx information:
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1. Standardized Index Thresholds
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2. Standardized Space Weather Impact Indicator
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3. Standardized Space Weather Information
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Areas of the world experiencing similar SWx effects can be much larger than those of any
Meteorological Watch Office (MWO). In order to avoid duplication of effort and possible
confusion and conflicting information, it will be advantageous to consolidate the responsibilities
of the MWOs, with regard to SWx, into a to-be-determined number of Space Weather Watch
Offices, similar to the the International Space Environmental Service’s (ISES) 14 Regional
Warning Centers (RWC). Whatever the number of centers chosen, there is a clear need for
standards in geographic and technical aspects of SWx information and warnings for aviation
with global scope. ISES and the RWCs would need to coordinate closely on the issuance of SWx
information impact aviation. It’s also important to keep in mind that it could be some time before
products with the level of details requiring graphical and gridded presentation are available to
meet user needs. Therefore, consideration should be given to include textual/non-graphical
8
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products as an official product in Annex 3 for the near term.9 That notwithstanding, the
information should be disseminated along the lines of the present tropical cyclone and other
unique terrestrial weather event warnings to meteorological authorities for dissemination locally
to airlines under regional agreements. The means of communication might be similar to the
World Area Forecast Satellite Broadcast System (WAFS) or the Aeronautical Message Handling
System (AMHS),10 written in normal meteorological terminology and formatted for users for
inclusion in flight plan packages and briefings. ICAO and WMO will need to continue to work
together in order to achieve these fundamental principles that the provision of SWx information
is an operational requirement.
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2.1
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The following types of SWx information are required for aircraft operations: observations,
analyses, and forecasts. As with terrestrial weather, SWx data are obtained via both ground and
space-based instruments. These instruments give forecasters the best assessment of current SWx
conditions to help better understand and predict potential impacts from SWx activities. These
measurements provide insight into the spatial and temporal complexity of the magnetic field
lines of the magnetosphere and electron densities of the ionosphere that impact aviation
operations in various ways. The data are then output as alerts, warnings, and forecasts for given
SWx elements known to impact satellite and aviation operations. The intent of this ConOps is to
convey how SWx alerts and warnings need to become a mainstay of global harmonization in
airline operations. The SWx specification and forecast services require four strategic elements:
observations, data access and display, predictions, and product dissemination.
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2.1.1 Observations
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Observations are classified as data measured by sensors. The suite of instruments that monitor
SWx data collects ground-based, airborne, and/or space-based observations. These SWx
observations allow the characterization of the spherical space region (Sun-Earth, also known as
the heliosphere, see Appendix B for details), that is 1016 times greater than the spherical shell of
the troposphere around the Earth. An example observation platform would be the U.S.
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) satellite, whose X-ray peak
brightness is aligned by class and by energy flux to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) SWx Radio Blackout Scales. GOES also makes high-energy particle
flux measurements averaged in five-minute increments to define the NOAA Space Weather
Radiation Storm Scale intensities (S-scale). The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
(STEREO) satellite is another observation platform that detects the Sun’s eruptions, and enables
a full 3-D analysis of the eruption. The goal of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is to
understand the Sun's influence on Earth and near-Earth space. SDO will investigate how
the Sun’s magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is
converted and released in the form of solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar
irradiance. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, positioned along the Sun-Earth
line at the equilibrium gravitational point, the so-called L1 point, one and one-half million miles
kilometers from the Earth, is the only deep SWx monitor station (similar to a terrestrial surface
weather observation station) providing in situ measurements of highly-charged particles in the
CURRENT OPERATIONS AND CAPABILITIES
Description of Current Operations
9
ICAO Annex 3, “World Area International Air Navigation,” Chapter 3, Meteorological Watch Offices, 16th
Edition (July 2007).
10
ICAO Annex 10, Aeronautical Telecommunications, Chapter 4, Aeronautical Fixed Services, 6 th Edition (October 2001).
9
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solar wind moving directly at the Earth’s magnetosphere. In the U.S., data is gathered through a
suite of observation platforms that include a network of ground-based magnetometers, spacebased solar telescopes, satellites, ionosondes, radio telescopes and GPS receivers. GPS receivers
collect ionospheric data. The ionosphere is perturbed by effects of the solar wind that often
degrades aviation radio communications. These are just a sample of capabilities used today, and
those needed to support the airline service requirements.
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Collating this array of SWx data can provide additional insight to the spatial and temporal
electron density structure in the ionosphere that can cause scintillation on the L-band (GPS) radio
frequency communications. At the same time, there has been the prospect of flying radiationmeasuring instruments (dosimeters) on aircraft or RLVs to routinely quantify the radiation dose
impacts to better understand the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes. In fact, dosimeters
are currently located on the International Space Station. This will help quantify the radiation in a
given area, and can lead to improved understanding of the radiation environment at aircraft, suborbital, and low-Earth orbit altitudes. In addition, these measurements help validate some
radiation models and tools, like Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety
(NAIRAS) (See Appendix B).11 Aircraft observations from pilots (i.e., AIREPs or PIREPs) could
improve the understanding of SWx event nuances related to onboard impacts by reporting
communication difficulties (including presence or Northern/Southern lights) and suspicious or
erroneous avionics measurements (navigation).
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Observations from space assets provide data which supports substantially improved forecasts.
Both the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and the ACE spacecraft are
located at an L1 orbit. ACE provides crucial short-term warnings with very high confidence for
the onset of major geomagnetic and radiation storms. SOHO provides observations of CMEs that
provide a 1-3 day advanced warning of geomagnetic storms. The pair of STEREO spacecraft (A
and B, leading and trailing Earth in its orbit) provided CME measurements in 3-D visual stereo
images that lend much insight into the physical properties of coronal eruptions.
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2.1.2 Analysis
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A SWx analysis capability analyzes the potential, severity, or other aspects of a solar storm
event. Analysis of SWx information can be difficult because of its scarcity. Proper interpretation
of observed SWx data is the necessary precursor to reliable and enhanced forecast products. But
unlike most hazardous terrestrial weather, SWx events occur on a time scale comparable to
tornado warnings and micro-bursts. On average, lead-times are 30 minutes or less. Extending
these lead-times is paramount to mitigate the severity of impact to safety, operations, and cost.
Unfortunately, there are no ground-truth measurements that can be used to initialize a forecast
until the elements of a solar storm are already 99 percent of the way toward Earth. The WMO
Statement of Guidance on Space Weather Observation12 states the “vastness of space and the
wide range of physical scales that control the dynamics of SWx demand that numerical models
be employed to characterize the conditions in space to predict the occurrence and consequences
of disturbances. Data assimilation techniques must be utilized to obtain the maximum benefit
from more coarse measurements, SWx observations are therefore used through data assimilation
into empirical or physic-based models.”
11
Prototype operational model that will provide a tool for commercial airlines and aircrew to monitor current and
accumulated radiation exposure, under development at NASA Langley Research Center.
12
WMO Space Programme SP-5, The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather (April 2008).
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2.1.3 Forecasts
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SWx forecasts give probabilistic estimates of the eruptive conditions at the Sun, as well as
geophysical conditions nearer earth, that impact aviation operations. Characterization and/or
predictions of the space environment from the Sun to the Earth’s surface are based upon
observational data that monitor the Sun, and its sunspots. When a solar flare and/or CME occur,
this data is input into the space-physics mathematical and empirical models to determine the
impacts to orbiting spacecraft, communication, navigation, and other Earth-related impacts to
those users operating in the near-Earth environment and dependent on space-based technology.
These multi-dimensional forecast problems must meet current aviation operator needs (Table 6).
Some samples of forecast products available from the SPWC website are shown in Appendix F.
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Photons projected from the Sun’s surface as a result of magnetic field eruptions travel at the
speed of light and cause HF dayside aviation communications blackouts with no lead time.
Similar to the analysis challenges of forecasting terrestrial weather events related to tornadoes or
micro-bursts, it is a challenge to disseminate information on this SWx hazard to aviation
operations in a timely manner. Even solar winds associated with solar storms carry highlycharged particles traveling at million(s) of miles per hour (much slower than speed of light)
through deep space, which, at times, slam into the Earth’s magnetosphere, doing so with little
advance notice in some cases. CME events generally occur on timescales more typical of
synoptic scale terrestrial forecasting (20 hours to four days). In one aspect, the timescales for
geomagnetic-type storm forecasting SWx impacts generally compared to some terrestrial
hazardous weather event movements, though the impacts are usually quite different. Interference
and disruption of telecommunication frequencies necessary to maintain aviation communication
and navigation integrity occur in rapid fashion across the scale of hemispheric regions and a
multitude of Flight Information Regions (FIR), lasting from minutes to hours, sometimes
stretching days in duration. Therefore, unlike terrestrial weather in-flight advisories, the format
used for displaying impact information of SWx on aviation may or may not be an appropriate
means of dissemination.
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timescales generally for forecasting SWx impacts compared to terrestrial hazardous weather
event movements are quite similar
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Therefore, the goal is to improve the reliability and confidence levels with in-flight SWx
advisories. This can be accomplished through better methods of monitoring and sensing
observational measurements that feed into improved physics-based and/or empirical-based
models supporting SWx forecast products.
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SWx products and services are primarily available from state-sponsored international
organizations as a part of the global effort for harmonization of SWx information into a single
standard. Products and services being considered must be adequate for use in both the northern
and southern polar region. If a case exists where this uniformity cannot be extended to both
regions, regardless of the reason, a different level of service or product must be provided.
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As in the case of terrestrial weather, reliable SWx information and forecasts are available from
commercial providers in addition to state-sponsored services. These commercial services would
render beneficial support in the form of tailored-made, value-added, rapid, and continuous SWx
information and forecasts. These services would be critical for pre-flight pilot briefings, enroute
updates, and for appropriate dispatch offices, etc., in accordance with established standards. The
Current Supporting Infrastructure for Space Weather Products and Services
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commercial providers could also provide their customized products as adjunct to near-real time
SWx warnings, alerts, update messages, and post-event analysis.
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Since SWx information services for aviation are still at the conceptual stage the current SWx
providers will be a major source of SWx products for the aviation community. New SWx
products can be tailored to better serve the operator needs in various scenarios and areas around
the globe, based upon an already-established global standard.
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2.2.1 Current Supporting Infrastructure from International Organizations
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It is recommended that there be collaboration between ICAO, WMO, ISES, RWCs, and other
meteorological authorities using their specific areas of expertise to develop an internationallyconsistent set of SWx products. To achieve this, it would be advantageous to form a small group
of experts, perhaps from the existing IAVWOPSG ad hoc group working this ConOps, to mature
these concepts into products (including a Space Weather Advisory); conduct ongoing
verification; hone performance metrics; include collaborative decision-making processes,
standards, and recommended practices; and develop additional guidance material.
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2.2.1.1
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ICAO defines the requirements for SWx warnings to aviation through relevant amendments to its
Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation. ICAO will provide oversight
of new requirements and derivative products/services and procedures with the approval of the
new Standard and Recommended Practice (SARP) for SWx Information for implementation in
2016.
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2.2.1.2 World Meteorological Organization
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The WMO is an integral part of the interoperability between the major stakeholders. The WMO
Commission of Aeronautical Meteorology and the Commission for Basic Systems established
the International Coordination Team for Space Weather (ICTSW) to support the IAVWOPSG
efforts to integrate SWx services to terrestrial weather information delivery. The WMO will take
ownership of and manage the requirements when tasked by ICAO once they are implemented.
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2.2.1.3 International Space Environment Service
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ISES is the primary international entity responsible for SWx services. Its mission is to encourage
and facilitate near real-time global monitoring and prediction of the space environment, and to
provide services to users that reduce the impact of SWx on activities of human interest to include
aviation operations. The suite of SWx products and services are accessible to all domestic and
international airline dispatchers and pilots, controllers, flight briefers, and planners, through 14
RWCs.
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2.2.1.3.1 Regional Warning Centers
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At present, there are 14 RWCs around the globe (Figure 4). The primary reason for the existence
of the RWCs is to provide services to the scientific and user communities within their regions, as
well as to provide guidance and training material. Perhaps a concept to establish regional centers
for training should be considered. RWCs would be encouraged to provide SWx information in
the form of observations, forecast, and climatology. Each RWC will tailor the SWx information
it receives and integrate it into SWx products and services as warranted for its region of
responsibility into standardized formats and content.
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These services can consist of aviation-specific forecasts or warnings of disturbances to the solar
terrestrial environment. The range of the locations of RWCs results in a very diverse set of users
for these forecasts. An important feature of the ISES system is that each RWC is able to
construct and direct its services to the specific needs of its own customers. There should be some
consideration for expanding the providing service to include decision-makers involved
concerning impacts on SWx communication and on the severity of impacts on GNSS subsystems in generic terms in time and region. This could include general information on the
potential radiation that could affect avionics, passengers, and crews. Details of ISES and the
RWCs can be found at http://www.ises-spaceweather.org/.
13
International Civil Aviation Organization
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Each RWC must intra-connect its usual user community services within its own region, while
working to harmonize and standardize product content, format, and procedural services, in order
to promote seamless operational procedures for improved aviation efficiency.
S. Korea
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Figure 4: The RWC in Boulder has a Special Role in the “World Warning Agency,”
Acting as a Hub for Data Exchange and Forecasts.
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2.2.1.3.2 The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
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The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), in Boulder, Colorado, USA provides an end-toend process that collects and analyzes SWx observations to produce forecasts, warnings, and
alerts for its customers—including airlines.
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The SWPC plays a special role as the ISES “World Warning Agency,” acting as a hub for data
exchange and forecasts.13 The data exchange is standardized in nature and format, ranging from
simple forecasts or coded information, to more complicated content, such as imagery that the
RWCs can utilize to provide services to the scientific and user communities within their regions.
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The SWPC website provides a variety of SWx products that describe expected SWx conditions,
including the following elements:
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(a) SWPC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical
events.
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(b) SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic indices, and
solar event reports.
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SWx and meteorological services are two aspects of environmental information that are jointly
needed in support of safety and sustainability of the airline industry. The SWPC website
provides alert messages for SWx activities as follows:
13
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Manual on Space Weather Effects in Regard to International
Air Navigation, (January 2011).
14
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
Watch messages are issued for long lead times for all SWx activity predictions.
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
Warning messages are issued when some condition is expected. The messages contain a
warning period and other information of interest.
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
Alert messages are issued when an event threshold is crossed and contain information
that is available at the time of issue.
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
Summary messages are issued after the event ends, and contains additional information
that was not available at the time of issue.
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The following assumptions are made, relative to the SWx forecasts:
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SWPC will continue to produce these alerts and forecasts. New SWx products in object-oriented
graphical or gridded formats will be designed and proposed to ICAO for consideration and
publication in Annex 3.14
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2.2.1.3.3 Australian Space Weather Information Services
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The Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS), a service of the Australian Department of Industry,
Science and Resources, has been producing air route HF prediction charts based on real-time and
forecast ionospheric models for many years. The IPS is a specialist SWx unit of the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology and provides a range of services to the Aviation Industry.
These services include an auroral oval activity HF prediction product using Polar-Orbiting
Environmental Satellites (POES) satellite data but could be augmented to use GOES data in
Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) events. In addition, IPS has been producing Sudden Ionospheric
Disturbance (SID)/Short-wave Fadeout Chart (SWF) charts based on GOES X-ray flux
measurements for many years. Alerts are issued for HF fades based on solar X-ray flux.
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In recent years, IPS has been working in consultation with the Australian aviation industry on the
impacts of SWx on some sub-systems of the GNSS. The Australian research team is believed to
be at the forefront in this area, and the team has investigated the impacts of SWx on Ground
Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) and the possibility of tolerance levels being exceeded
during large geomagnetic storms. GBAS offers the ability to support multiple runway ends;
reduced flight inspections and maintenance requirements compared to Instrument Landing
System (ILS); a more stable signal; and less interference with preceding aircraft. GBAS/WAAS
is a safety-critical system that augments the GPS Standard Positioning Service (SPS) and
provides enhanced levels of service.
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Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events are typically monitored using high-energy proton data from
the GOES satellites. IPS also monitors PCA events using a ground-based array of Relative
Ionospheric Opacity Meters (riometers – see Appendix B), which can be used as an alternative to
satellite data. For an industry such as aviation, perhaps ground-based alternatives should also be
considered to satellite data wherever available.
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IPS has been working with Qantas Airlines on improving the Australian aviation industry
understanding of radiation hazards from SWx.
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Unlike other known weather hazards that are usually linked to specific FIRs, SWx is typically a
global-scale phenomenon. Despite the evolving constellation of SWx monitoring satellites, space
DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES
14
Space Weather Sub-Group of the Cross Polar Working Group, “Integrating Space Weather Observations &
Forecasts into Aviation Operations, Aviation Space Weather User Requirements,” Version 3.02, (November 2010).
15
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and ionospheric observational data is sparse and the current models are unable to predict with
reasonable confidence, the pertinent eruptive activity that will significantly impact the Earth’s
magnetosphere. The forecast depicts the intensity of the solar event and other important aspects
involving the time of onset and expected duration of this SWx hazard.
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An additional change that has been requested by some aviation users pertains to the
characterization of solar radiation events. The SWx science and aviation community is
encouraged to collaborate on developing and providing an appropriate SWx scale that would be
based upon the relevant part of the corresponding energy spectrum of the impinging protons, and
be assessed with appropriate reliable space-borne measuring instruments.
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SWx forecast products, although produced back to the Apollo missions in the 1960s, are in a
formative phase for the purposes of aviation. The initial lists of objectives below will be targeted
to meet accuracy and dependability requirements as prescribed in more detail in Appendix D.
But this list is by no means exhaustive. Objectives include:
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
Continued provision of real-time solar wind data for the models and their output to
forecasters from the replacement spacecraft for the ACE, NASA’s Deep Space
Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft vehicle, along with other space-based
observing platforms to foster better numerical model output and forecaster input
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
Refinement of probabilities both from a user and a ATM standpoint as presented in
Table 5. Improved forecast accuracy and reliability as heliospheric space physics
models evolve
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
Improved forecast to accurately identify and predict the time, duration, and intensity of
SWx events for aviation users as defined in the functional requirements in Appendix C
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
Ability to forecast solar eruptive activity prior to initial event
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
Improved identification of affected area from impacts (i.e., HF outage)
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
Probability output disseminated in gridded format
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
Standard SWx forecasts by all advisory centers with respective procedures that
precipitate from such information coming from various sources, for example,
something similar to the NOAA Space Weather Scale
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The communication gap between providers of SWx information and the airline industry will
need to be streamlined. SWx advisories are often Nowcast-type forecasts that err on the side of
caution, issuing potential solar storm-scale intensity indices greater than what actually transpires.
This typically shifts flight maneuvers to lower altitudes, reducing potential radiation exposure—
but adding time and duration to the flight path, and in the worst cases, leads to costly en route
diversions and delays. Insufficient detection and unnecessarily coarse modeling of SWx are two
of the major shortfalls toward developing reliable forecasts of the SWx hazards for the specific
duration and intensity thresholds affecting communications, navigation, and radiation exposure.
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Prior to the implementation of this initial set of requirements, it would be advantageous to hold
another Space Weather Workshop (similar to AMS policy conference held in Washington, DC,
November 2006) for core end users specifically addressing the uncertainties confronting
meteorological product format and service delivery, and including clarification of
communication links, the roles and responsibilities of various organizations within the
international echelon structure, and regional training and education.
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3.1
Proposed Service Description
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3.1.1
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The need for new and improved SWx information becomes more apparent with the continued
growth in polar air routes, near-term commercial spaceflight (suborbital space tourism), and
advances in nano-technology (microelectronics). Before SWx data are provided to the users, it
must be determined what type of data is needed, what thresholds are needed, and when the data
should be disseminated. Similarly, SWx information and service providers need guidance on
standardizing the information for the aviation industry.
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SWx information needs to be standardized by classification type and sourced in a manner that
parallels methods used for terrestrial weather, and is familiar to the users of SWx. For example,
the NOAA Space Weather Scales (Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3) currently provide standardized
formats of impacts classified by storm type and intensity. The scales list the intensity and
frequency of occurrence for radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, and geomagnetic storms.
SWPC uses these scales to categorize the severity of impact.15 Development and delivery of
SWx information and services in this format should be considered for acceptance as the global
standard to ensure the data will be available on a global scale and that the display of data will be
similar to what is already in place.
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Either the NOAA Space Weather Scale or another internationally-approved standard of index
thresholds must be adopted and uniformly used in the forecast on the flight deck and in Traffic
Flow Management (TFM) DSTs. Whatever the approved Space Weather Scales end up being,
they should be incorporated into flight planning tools for characterizing duration, the type of
SWx hazard and its severity. The SWx information and format should be a single global standard
for aviation operations.
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The current threshold values or indices related to particular SWx parameters are shown below.
Note that some of these threshold values might be improved and better tailored for current
operational needs.16
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In recent Solar Cycles (1976-2008), the rate of occurrence of Solar Radiation Storms has
increased over those referenced in the NOAA Space Weather Scales. The recent cycles reveal
average updated numbers as follows: S1 Minor = ~ 75 per cycle, S2 Moderate = ~33 per cycle,
and S3 Strong = ~12 per cycle. After some comprehensive analysis for geomagnetic storms, the
number of days per cycle for G-scale events shows: G1-950 days/cycle, G2=390 days/cycle,
G3=140 days/cycle, G4=50 days/cycle, and G5 = 3 days/cycle.
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The current threshold values or indices related to particular SWx parameters are shown below:17
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Radio Blackouts: Fluxes in X-ray and Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) photons burst from solar
flare arriving in eight minutes (speed of light) measured in the 0.1-0.8nm range. But other
physical measures are also considered.
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Solar Radiation Storms: The index for high energy proton particle fluxes are five minute
averaged measurements derived from energies >10MeV proton flux. However, protons
>100MeV are better indicators of radiation to passengers and crew but the expansion through the
Standardizing Aviation Space Weather Information
15
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (NOAAScales).
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings).
17
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings).
16
17
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development of an S-scale may become more apparent as expertise is gained with NAIRAS and
the event driven radiation dose level.
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Geomagnetic Storms: The K-index is used to determine this SWx element and its intensity is
displayed as K-1 – K9, with 9 being the most intense. Currently, messages are automatically
generated from real-time measurements of a distributed magnetometer network.
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See Appendix E for more details on specific thresholds that trigger the various SWx alert
messages that are in concert with the NOAA Space Weather Scales presented in Table 1, Table 2,
and Table 3 below.
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See Appendix H for more details on the effort for SWx information to be globally standardized
for geomagnetic field intensity and expected impacts in a temporal and spatial sense.
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Table 1: NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackout Events
Radio Blackouts
HF Radio: Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout on the
entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This
results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in
this sector.
R5
Extreme
Strong
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699
(2x10-3)
X10
8 per cycle
(10-3)
(8 days per
cycle)
X1
175 per cycle
(10-4)
(140 days per
cycle)
M5
350 per cycle
(5x10-5)
(300 days per
cycle)
M1
2000 per
cycle
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an
hour.
Moderate
Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens
of minutes.
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on
sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
R1
Fewer than 1
per cycle
Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause
increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions
of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.
HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit
side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.
R2
X20
Severe
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of
radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.
R3
Number of
events when
flux level was
met; (number
of storm days)
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and
general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the
Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite
navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of
Earth, which may spread into the night side.
HF Radio: HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit
side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this
time.
R4
GOES X-ray
peak
brightness
by class and
by flux*
Minor
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief
intervals.
(10-5)
(950 days per
cycle)
* Flux, measured in the 0.1-0.8 nm range, in W·m-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also
considered.
** Other frequencies may also be affected by these conditions.
19
700
Table 2: NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale for Radiation Storm Events
Solar Radiation Storms
Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA
(extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at
high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk. ***
S5
Extreme
Flux level of
> 10 MeV
particles
(ions)*
Number of
events when
flux level was
met**
105
Fewer than 1
per cycle
104
3 per cycle
103
10 per cycle
102
25 per cycle
10
50 per cycle
Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts
can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, startrackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar
panels possible.
Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency)
communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors
make navigation operations extremely difficult.
Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA;
passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be
exposed to radiation risk.***
S4
Severe
Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise
on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation
problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded.
Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar
regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.
Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on
EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may
be exposed to radiation risk.***
S3
Strong
Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and
slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.
Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions
and navigation position errors likely.
Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes
may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***
S2
Moderate
Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.
Other systems: effects on HF propagation through the polar regions, and
navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.
Biological: none.
S1
Minor
Satellite operations: none.
Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.
701
702
703
704
705
* Flux levels are 5-minute averages. Flux in particles·s-1·ster-1·cm-2. Based on this measure, but other physical
measures are also considered.
** These events can last more than one day.
*** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews.
Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.
706
707
20
708
Table 3: NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale for Geomagnetic Storm Events
Geomagnetic Storms
G5
Extreme
Power systems: widespread voltage control problems and protective
system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete
collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
Kp values*
determined
every 3
hours
Number of
storm events
when Kp level
was met;
(number of
storm days)
Kp=9
4 per cycle
(4 days per
cycle)
Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging,
problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high
frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one
to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, lowfrequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been
seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic
lat.).**
Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some
protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
G4
Severe
Kp=8,
including a
9-
100 per cycle
Kp=7
200 per cycle
Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking
problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
(60 days per
cycle)
Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF
radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, lowfrequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as
Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).**
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms
triggered on some protection devices.
G3
Strong
(130 days per
cycle)
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite
components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and
corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio
navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and
aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50°
geomagnetic lat.).**
Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage
alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
G2
Moderate
Kp=6
600 per cycle
(360 days per
cycle)
Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required
by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and
aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55°
geomagnetic lat.).**
Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.
G1
709
710
711
712
713
Minor
Kp=5
1700 per cycle
(900 days per
cycle)
Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels;
aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and
Maine).**
* The K-index used to generate these messages is derived in real-time from the Boulder NOAA Magnetometer. The
Boulder K-index, in most cases, approximates the Planetary Kp-index referenced in the NOAA Space Weather
Scales. The Planetary Kp-index is not yet available in real-time.
** For specific locations around the globe, use geomagnetic latitude to determine likely sightings
21
714
3.1.2 Integration and Delivery of Space Weather Meteorological Services
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
Sensing, understanding, forecasting, and applying information relating to conditions in the nearEarth space environment are key components of monitoring SWx. In order to provide accurate
and reliable warnings for pending hazardous solar activity events, observations of
electromagnetic energy and energetic particles are crucial.18 SWx forecast attempt to predict
conditions that occur near the Earth, when the Sun erupts with enhanced photons, high energy
charged particles and magnetic field. It is recommended a conceptual simplified SWx
information user display or text product should be developed, perhaps in some gridded data
format integrating the potential intensities referenced from the NOAA Space Weather Scales in
polygons considering the latitude, time of day, etc.
724
725
726
727
728
729
While the NOAA Space Weather Scales are very useful for generalizing SWx events and
providing some indication of latitudinal dependence, the effects of the associated SWx events at
various latitudes can vary quite significantly on various technologies such as the GBAS/WAAS,
power networks, aircraft radiation levels, short-waves fadeout, HF communication frequencies,
etc.
18
OFCM/OSTP, Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification and Potential Loss of ACE Spacecraft Solar
Wind Data on National Space Environmental Monitoring Capabilities (January 2008).
22
730
4
PROPOSED CONCEPT
731
4.1
732
4.1.1 Assumptions for Airline Industry Operations
733
734
735
736
737
The economic impact of SWx is significant and continues to grow. The airline industry’s
vulnerability increases with the growing number of daily trans-polar commercial flights and their
reliance on satellite technologies and communication frequencies vulnerable to effects of SWx.
GNSS allows every country to develop positioning, location, and timing services for its own
constituency. The largest potential for failure or degraded service is imposed by SWx.
738
4.1.2 Constraints to Providing Robust Space Weather Products and Services
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
There are recommendations to ensure the SWx products and service formats are universally
accepted and efficiently disseminated in a time-sensitive manner to be relevant for user needs:
752
753
754
755
756
757
A common theme would help focus and maintain the international community effort toward
global harmonization of SWx information in a single standard. Global aviation operations
generally execute using some sort of a daily (or cyclic) schedule of collaborative decisionmaking that reaches consensus in mapping out a sensible, cost-effective air traffic strategy. The
science and human-in-the-loop elements utilize a multitude of communicative and tracking
systems to create and disseminate standard and/or tailored SWx information products.
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
A virtual exercise, which is a low-cost and effective method to evaluate how this process could
evolve into a single global standard for products and services, should be conducted. This virtual
exercise could serve to validate the requirements (Appendix C) and would articulate the causes
of SWx impacts along the polar airline routes open to commercial traffic. This exercise could
utilize ongoing operations and conduct virtual simulations in a non-intrusive manner to evaluate
real-world situations of all the potentially hazardous effects, without the real-world
consequences. Analysis and its derivative impact assessment can be conducted in a less stressful
environment. The assessment would focus on safety, time, and operating cost aspects over longhaul flights as a result of en route modifications or flight plan changes from observed or
forecasted incoming highly charged energy particles (solar storms) traveling along the Earth’s
magnetic field lines downward through aviation altitudes toward the magnetic—not
geographical—pole. These ionized particles cross through the normal aviation altitudes en route
across the polar region, impacting navigation, communications, and radiation exposure to crew
and passengers. The concept of conducting such an exercise was driven by documented operator
needs for aviation SWx.
Assumptions and Constraints
1. ICAO does not currently provide standards and recommended practices for the provision
of SWx information in Annex 3 or provide specific guidance in any other manual or
publication.
2. To support Global ATM, SWx information must be accessible and usable by a variety of
aviation decision-makers, including flight crew members.
3. Bandwidth limitations, particularly on oceanic and polar routes, may limit the types of
SWx information that can be efficiently transmitted to the aircraft to support en route
decisions by flight crew members.
4.2
Operational Environment
23
773
774
775
776
777
778
Meeting the criteria of the confidence levels in Table 5 provides the ability for operators and air
traffic services to mitigate the impact of adverse SWx along long-haul polar routes shown in
Figure 1. Improving the monitoring and sensing of the spatial and temporal elements of SWx
will improve the reliability and confidence levels of SWx forecast products. These would help
mitigate communication and avionics’ equipment degradations, and human health threats, while
increasing the socio-economic benefit, efficiency, and safety for the aviation industry.
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources IPS is developing an extreme
SWx service that will be based on a count-down style warning system from the initiation of the
event on the Sun, through the solar wind to Earth and the subsequent impact on national
infrastructures. The count-down scale runs from a Level 5 (initialization of event) to a Level 0
(storm in progress or significant impact on a particular technology based on relevant thresholds).
Perhaps this count-down method should be considered as an alternative or modified, worthy of
further investigation, to the current “watch,” “warning,” and “alert” levels and message format
utilized in some portions of the globe.
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
794
The proposed set of SWx requirements (Appendix C) considers a modified message format, time
frequency issued, and intervals updates. An example is a theoretical scenario warranting the need
to amend the 30-hour forecast cycle product (shown in Table 5 and Appendix C) during some
demonstration period. This exercise would help assess whether the frequency and type of product
is adequate in serving all phases of aviation operations effectively and reliably. Additionally,
conducting regional exercises might be a way to evaluate the send and receive mode of SWx
information from the global centers and meteorological facilities and to ensure effectiveness and
speed of response, in a manner similar to IAVWOPSG warnings from volcanic eruptions.
795
Table 4: User Needs to Better Understand and Mitigate SWx Impacts on Aviation Operations
Needs for Global Harmonization of SWx Information in a Single Standard for Aviation
1
2
3
4
796
797
798
Improved detection of solar, interplanetary, ionospheric and atmospheric variables related to SWx
Improved forecasting SWx models
Improved current and forecast SWx products
Better dissemination of the products to users
Understanding how terrestrial weather is standardized for aviation will help SWx and ANSP
configure information and services for efficient delivery. The capabilities to do this are presented
as follows:
799
800
801
a) Remote Sensing: Evolving Heliophysics System Observatory–Spacecraft Constellation
looking at the Sun in total in four-dimensions (e.g., STEREO, Two Wide-Angle Imaging
Neutral-Atom Spectrometers [TWINS-2], etc.)
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
b) In Situ Observations: A multitude of space-based satellites are monitoring and sensing
SWx phenomena. But the only SWx station to provide ground truth similar to a groundbased Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) station on Earth for terrestrial
weather is the ACE spacecraft. The ACE directly measures charged protons and electrons
traveling on the associated solar wind at speeds in the millions of miles per hour, and
from various types of solar events. This is an aging research satellite, well beyond its life
expectancy. Its replacement is the DSCOVR spacecraft, projected to be launched in 2014.
A fleet of other deep space satellites including SOHO, STEREO, SDO and other
24
810
811
observational spacecraft platforms are monitoring on a continuous basis the properties of
solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and SEP.
812
813
814
815
816
817
818
c) Nowcasts/Forecasts: The result of a multitude of complex SWx models coming-of-age
over the last decade. Two examples of SWx models supporting aviation operations are
the D-Region Absorption Product (D-RAP) and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) Enlil
(named for the Sumerian god of wind). These models are defined further in section 4.3.1
under #5. Another example for future widespread availability is the advanced space
physics- and/or empirical-based models (e.g., Global Assimilation of Ionospheric
Measurements [GAIM], etc.).
819
820
821
822
Figure 5 shows how SWx information providers who produce forecasts, analyses, and other SWx
products will receive and disseminate pertinent and reliable streamlined services in near real time
that will help improve all phases of flight planning and execution. This should include, but is not
limited to:
823

Currency of the product (product issue and valid times)
824

Relevance of the product
825

Cause of the hazard
25
M
a
nu
r e c t i ves
/ /
Pilot
Pilot
Aircraft
Aircraft
Research
Observations
Community
Space Weather
iD
d
o
Pr
u
c
2002
2001
10993
i
gn
o
to
r
S
W
PC
Data for model
improvement
/I
nt
e
s
a
l
n
o
E
S
i
S
Crosslink ofevent
avionic
information
equipment
between
malfunction
aircraft
M
827
826
Figure 5: Future Production and Communications Concept
828
829
830
831
832
833
834
835
In addition, the new concept of a cross-link between en route aircraft for passing real-time
avionic equipment malfunctions (single and multiple-bit upset information shown at the top of
figure) should be considered. It is recommended that some type of possible pilot actions should
be listed at the ready within the cockpit, when expected conditions warrant such information to
be provided rather than pilots performing their own freelance SWPC monitoring in the form of
an alerting service. One such option this could be done would be through an Aircraft
Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) accessible to high-level
Significant Meteorological (SIGMET)-like forecast information.19 But this option is not the most
19
ICAO Annex 3, World Area International Air Navigation, Chapter 3, Meteorological Watch Offices, Appendix 2,
WAFS, 17th Edition (July 2010).
26
Traffic Density of Polar Routes
a
Downl i nk
t
Flow of Space Weather Information
a
d
836
837
838
839
desirable, as some solar events have a rapid onset of high radiation levels. Timeliness of the
information is critical, and off-time ACARS requests do not seem to guarantee the required,
short information-transmission line.
4.3 Operations
840
4.3.1 Existing and Future Space Weather Information
841
842
843
844
845
A required component of all flight operations is the pre-flight weather briefing. Prior to every
flight, pilots and airline dispatchers must gather all information vital to the flight. Meteorological
information is necessary to ensure a safe and efficient flight. This should include appropriate
SWx information applicable for the operation, and that is obtained from recognized official
reference sources (see Table 8Table 8).
846
847
848
The SWx information for use by airline pilots and dispatchers while planning and dispatching a
flight should provide as complete a SWx picture as possible, focusing on any anticipated impacts
on communications, navigation, and radiation exposure risk.
849
850
Examples of the types of existing and future SWx information to include in a standard briefing
prior to the departure of any flight include the following:
851
852
853
854
855
1.
Adverse Conditions: Conditions resulting from a SWx event, including adverse
conditions that may influence a decision to cancel or alter the flight route. Adverse
conditions include significant SWx, such as loss or disruption of communications,
increased levels of radiation at planned altitudes, and NOAA Space Weather Scales
intensities related to GNSS affecting navigation.
856
857
858
859
2.
Synopsis: The synopsis along or near the intended route of flight should be an overview
of the weather picture including SWx and any resulting impact effects from the solar
activity (i.e., flares, geomagnetic storms and its associated activity, ionospheric
variations, and aurora borealis/australis).
860
861
862
3.
Current Conditions: Current SWx observations affecting communications, radiation,
and navigation along the route of flight. Nil activity, effects, and degradation should be
stated.
863
864
4.
En Route Forecast: A summary of the SWx forecast affecting communications,
radiation, and navigation for the proposed route of flight.
865
866
867
868
869
870
871
872
873
874
875
876
5.
Communication Frequency Forecast: Where applicable, detailed information on the
best (max) useable HF frequencies, within a time period, in each ATC FIR. An example
of a forecast output is the D-Region Absorption Product (D-RAP) provided to airlines
and dispatchers with a map indicating where HF communications are compromised by
SWx phenomena. D-RAP is driven by GOES X-Ray data, energetic particle data, and
ground magnetometer data, and is undergoing verification through cooperation of
Canada’s Space Weather Forecast Centre. It is constructing a network of HF
transmitters/receivers to mimic airline communication in real time against the pilot
reports logging radio frequency and contacts, and broken contacts. The WSA Enlil model
provides the latest forecast of conditions in the solar wind, improving NOAA’s forecast
skill. The solar wind is a fast moving stream of charged particles emanating from the sun
and moving outward towards the Earth and planets.
877
878
879
6.
Integrity Reduction of GNSS and Satcom: A provision to monitor associated level of
services to warn of reduction with GNSS and satellite communications in real time.
Discussions are ongoing to make this a requirement of airlines after further consideration.
27
880
881
7.
Radiation Aloft: A forecast of the atmospheric radiation dose rates expected to be
encountered at specific altitudes and latitudes along the route of flight.
882
883
8.
ATC Delays: An advisory of any known or anticipated ATC delays or spacing
variations, due to SWx activity, that may affect the flight.
884
885
9.
Other Information: Contact information, or the telephone number of the National ISES
RWC. Any additional information requested should also be provided in this section.
886
4.3.2 Future Targets for Outlook Information
887
888
889
890
891
892
893
894
895
896
The reliability and confidence levels or probability (%) of a forecast event is crucial, not only for
increasing operational efficiency and safety, but also for mitigating unnecessary costs. SWx
events can affect large volumes of airspace over long timescales, leading to large commercial
impacts. Therefore, it is imperative that operational decision-makers have better confidence in
the accuracy of observations obtained and the SWx Probability of Detection (POD) forecasts.
Each SWx product the percentage confidence level will vary depending on the POD. Table 5
provides the breakdown by product type of the confidence levels at different forecast timeframes
expected for the future. However, the percentage confidence levels will vary depending on the
Probability of Detection.
28
897
Forecast
7 days
7days
3 days
3 days
30-hrs
30-hrs
2025
2016
2025
2016
2025
2016
65-85%
35-55%
65-85%
45-65%
75-95%
55-75%
Warning
Alert
0 hrs
Dispatcher
Issued
as Warranted
Audio-visual
2016: 6-hr 75%
“Attentiongetter” icons
2025: 6-hr 95%
Parameter Changes
2016: 6-hr 75%
2025: 6-hr 95%
Update
Parameter Changes
2016: 6-hr 75%
2025: 6-hr 95%
Post-Event
Analysis
898
99%
As Required by
End User
Table 5: Summary of General (%) Confidence Levels in Future Forecast Products
899
900
29
901
4.4
902
903
904
905
Improving the integration of SWx with terrestrial weather information now falls under the
established purview of ICAO with assistance from the WMO as part of its charter. This
integration is expected to improve efficiency and safety of air traffic management through
established procedures and communication tools.20
906
907
908
909
910
911
This ConOps identifies and summarizes the high-level operational requirements and the
supporting incremental, more detailed functional requirements. These requirements were gleaned
from the “Aviation Space Weather User Service Needs” document developed by the CPWG
Space Weather (SWx) Sub-Group. The 20 Aviation User Needs (AUN) statements were defined
and reached by consensus with participating member air navigation service providers in
December 2010.
912
913
914
A functional analysis was performed on these AUNs, incorporating critical content from the
document, and allowing for responsible, accountable requirements to be written. The definition
of these operational and functional requirements has been defined in Appendix C.
915
916
917
918
919
The initial set of AUNs (Table 6) are the back-drop of an associated set of operational and
unallocated functional requirements drafted in Appendix C, and proposed for international
acceptance. These requirements were developed from the following 20 AUN-defined consensus
statements from the CPWG SWx Sub-Group:
20
Operational Requirements
WMO Space Programme SP-5, “The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather” (April 2008).
30
Derived Statement of Need for Space Weather
AUN-1
Define the impacts of space weather
AUN-2
Provide the following types of information: observations, forecasts, and
climatology
AUN-3
Provide information in text and graphical format
AUN-4
Present information using standardized format and content
AUN-5
Describe/display the severity of impact in standardized text and graphical
reports
AUN-6
Provide text and graphical reports using specified timelines and durations
AUN-7
Provide an estimate of the accuracy of the information
AUN-8
State the regions affected
AUN-9
Utilize stated transmission methods for space weather reports
AUN-10
Provide information on disruptions to HF communications
AUN-11
Provide information on disruptions to VHF communications
AUN-12
Provide information on disruptions to UHF communications
AUN-13
Provide information on fading and loss of lock to SATCOM
AUN-14
Provide information on the radiation environment that will affect avionics
AUN-15
Provide information on the radiation environment that will affect humans
AUN-16
Provide Information that will affect GNSS
AUN-17
Define space weather information and decision-maker matrices
not included
AUN-18
Define communication and integration of space weather information
not included
AUN-19
Provide space weather education and training
not included
AUN-20
Use global standards for space weather information
not included
920
Table 6: Aviation User Need Statements
921
922
923
924
925
When the operators reach a consensus on what service needs are warranted, a functional analysis
will be performed. A functional analysis translates operators’ needs and human performances
(capabilities and limitations) into a sequence of top-level functions deconstructed to lower-level
building block-type functions. These collective functions define and depict the needed service or
operational capability that will become the primary foundation for framing requirements.
926
927
4.5
928
929
930
SWx information needs to be integrated with the flight planning process and disseminated for the
end user alongside terrestrial weather for the end users, in a manner similar to terrestrial weather,
and presented in an understandable format actionable for even the novice aviation industry user.
Supporting Infrastructure
31
931
932
933
The method of delivery of SWx products and reports should be seamless and conform to existing
protocol so it can be ingested by DSTs and easily displayed and understood at the lowest
common denominator.
934
935
In addition, SWx products and services should be made available to maintenance and
engineering personnel for post-event analysis in the event of avionic upsets or GNSS outages.
936
937
SWx information can be either “pushed” or “pulled,” and if required, integrated with the
operations/dispatcher work area as follows:
938
939
940
941
942
943

Pushed: Authorized service provider delivers international meteorological
terminology products that may or may not parallel the content format described earlier
in this document for the SWPC Warnings, Alerts, Updates, Text, and Alert graphics.
But the SWPC graphics themselves do not use the normal international meteorological
vocabulary. Terminology usage and format will have to be determined. The current
rules are prescribed within ICAO Annex 11 governing the Alert Service.
944
945
946

Pulled: “Flagged Icons” (format and terminology, TBD) to immediately notify
operators/dispatchers of Warnings, Alerts, Updates, Text product messages and/or
Alert graphics.
947
948
949
Focus should be on significantly increasing the safety, security, and capacity of air transportation
operations. The key capabilities will rely on network-enabled information sharing that will
ensure information is available, secure, and usable in real time across air transportation domains.
950
951
952
SWx information is needed to support operational decisions for the polar routes by airline
operations centers, flight crews, and ANSPs. Table 7 identifies the various users and the
information needed for decision making.
953
954
955
956
957
Table 7 is based upon similar decision areas and criteria taken from the latest draft document for
the Preliminary Performance Requirements (Version 0.2c, September 10, 2008).21 The additional
“Xs” (in red) indicate recommendations the operators see as necessary for them to operate in a
responsible and safe manner. These additional “Xs” are not operational requirements at this
juncture, but critical user needs considered for adoption and implementation down the road.
958
The tables cross-reference the SWx information with the decision-makers.
959
960
Note: Black “Xs” indicates the user requires this information for decisions. These users include
the following:
21
JPDO Weather Functional Requirements Study Group, “Four-Dimensional Wx Functional Requirements for
NextGen Air Traffic Management, Version 0.2” (February 15, 2008).
32
x
x
x
x
X
x
X
X
x
x
X
x
x
x
x
x
X
X
X
x
X
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
X
X
x
x
x
x
x
X
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Metering/Spacing Decision
x
Local
Controllers
Arrival/Departure Route
Selection
x
x
Route/Altitude Selection
x
x
Approach/Departure
Controllers
Metering/Spacing Decision
X
x
Approach/Departure
Clearance
X
x
Approach/Departure Route
Selection
X
Route/Altitude Selection
X
Landing Decision
x
Metering/Spacing Decision
Approach Commencement
x
Hazardous Weather
Deviation
x
In-flight Route/Altitude
Change
x
Route/Altitude Selection
x
x
Go/No Go Decision
x
Oceanic
Controllers
En Route Controllers
Metering/Spacing Decision
Airport/Spaceport
SW Reports
Airport/Spaceport
Terminal SW
Forecasts
En Route SW
Forecasts
SW Alerts and
Warnings
x
Pilots
Route/Altitude Selection
Disruption/loss of HF
Comms
Interruption of VHF
Comms
Reduced UHF
Performance
Interruption of
SatCom
Radiation
Environmental levels
and variability
GNSS integrity,
accuracy and outages
In-flight Route/Altitude
Change
Information Types
Go/No Go Decision
Decisions
Airline Dispatchers
or Support
Route/Altitude Selection
Decision-makers
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
961
Airport/Spaceport
SW Reports
Airport/Spaceport
Terminal SW
Forecasts
En Route SW
Forecasts
SW Alerts and
Warnings
962
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
X
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Spaceport, Runway
Utilization
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Table 7: SWx Information versus Decision-maker Matrices
33
x
Launch
Operator
or Pilot
In-Flight Trajectory
Change
x
Abort Decision
x
Go/No-Go Launch
Decision
x
Departure
Location/Trajectory
Decision
Metering/Spacing Decision
x
SWAP Implementation
x
Route Change
x
Ground-Stop/Delay
Decision
x
Airport Acceptance Rate
Determination
Metering/Spacing Decision
x
SWAP Implementation
x
Aerospace Operators/
Controllers (Space
Operations Centers)
Air Route Traffic Managers
Route Change
x
Ground-Stop/Delay
Decision
x
Airport Acceptance Rate
Determination
Metering/Spacing Decision
x
SWAP Implementation
Disruption/loss of
HF Comms
Interruption of VHF
Comms
Reduced UHF
Performance
Interruption of
SatCom
Radiation
Environmental levels
and variability
GNSS integrity,
accuracy and outages
Route Change
Information Types
Ground-Stop/Delay
Decision
Decisions
Approach/Departure Traffic
Managers
Traffic Managers
Airport Acceptance Rate
Determination
Decision-makers
x
x
x
x
x
963
4.6
Science Benefits to Be Realized
964
965
966
967
968
969
1. Improved SWx monitoring platforms and their respective measuring capabilities of space
phenomena will result in a greater number of observations, better quality of such, and
thereby, improved forecasts. The SWx information responsible for this will be
harmonized, which implies its interpretation be uniform and the procedures be carried
through in a seamless manner (single standard) that would mitigate operational cost to the
airlines.
970
971
972
2. This establishment of methodologies from reference document sources, existing
infrastructure, and products to help align the presentation of SWx information to include
standardized information, format, and impacts (e.g., NOAA Space Weather Scales).
973
974
975
976
977
978
979
3. Some company policies discourage using current NOAA Space Weather Solar Radiation
Storm Scales to provide information of radiation exposure to passengers and crews, since
the information is based upon the integral flux of protons with energies above 10 MeV
(proven inappropriate as an outcome from the 2012 Space Weather Aviation Workshop).
Measurements > 100MeV are needed, and > 300Mev preferred as more appropriate.
Future observation capabilities will eventually be able to provide those measurements on
a routine basis.
980
981
4.7
Cost Benefits Associated with Polar Routes
982
983
984
985
986
987
1. During times of disturbed SWx activity, polar airline routes are often diverted to lower
latitudes in order to prevent loss of radio communications and avoid human exposure in
case of increased radiation from SEPs. Such flight diversions can cost airlines as much as
$100,000 per flight for additional fuel, extra flight crew, and additional landing fees.22
This does not include indirect expenses or unquantifiable losses to passengers, like
missed connections.
988
2. Benefits expected from the addition of SWx capabilities include:
989
990
991
a. More accurate and timely information for flight planning and determination of SWx
impacts, including degraded or lost communications, erroneous navigation readings,
and radiation exposure to flight crews and passengers.
992
993
994
b. Improved flight route optimization by flight dispatchers and pilots through more
accurate and higher confidence forecast outputs with lead times required to meet
industry needs.
c.
995
996
997
998
999
1000
22
Diversions to mid-latitudinal routes that avoid the polar cap absorption effects on
airline communications with ATM cost additional time, require more fuel, and reduce
passengers and cargo carried per flight. Aircraft cost hundreds of dollars per minute
to operate, so saving just minutes over a long-haul flight can save significant
operating resources. As an example, a flight leaving Vancouver for Delhi takes 18
hours by traditional air traffic routes, but only 13.5 hours over the polar cap with fuel
WMO Space Programme SP-5, The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather (April 2008).
34
1001
1002
savings in the hundreds of thousands of dollars per flight. Flights from New York to
Hong Kong save nearly five hours.23
1003
5
1004
1005
1006
1007
This ConOps document and the following functional and performance requirements are intended
to be solution-independent.
1008
1009
1010
1011
The functional requirements are incremental tasks, or the building blocks necessary, to meet the
higher level operational requirements. These requirements identify what must be done to meet
the operator service needs, and format, and contents and are based upon the Space Weather
Functional Analysis performed on those needs.
1012
1013
1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
This ConOps provides a common vision of what operator needs are required for a SWx system
of support services to function from an operational perspective in the timeframe of 2016 and
beyond. A description of what is expected from a SWx support service, including its various
modes of operations and time-critical parameters collaborated within the recognized ICAO
working committee and ad hoc group, are provided in Appendix C. These ConOps requirements
were developed by performing a functional analysis on the criticality of these needs. A ConOps
is essentially a top-level narrative functional analysis.
1019
The complete set of functional requirements is presented in Appendix D for reference.
1020
5.2
1021
5.2.1 Existing Performance Requirements
1022
1023
1024
1025
No previous performance requirements exist for SWx information. These SWx information
performance requirements are the first of their kind. This inaugural set of requirements is
breaking new ground in an attempt to bring some continuity and standardization to operators,
support personnel and management, and end users in executing global operations.
1026
5.2.2 New Performance Requirements
1027
1028
1029
1030
1031
1032
1033
1034
The goal of these threshold values was to improve the efficiency of the airline flight planning
process and en route support in the case of dynamically changing SWx conditions and potential
impacts to crew and passengers in maintaining safety and efficiency. The goal was to strike a
balance between the right amount of pertinent SWx information, provided in a timely manner
most useful to the airlines, and support for operators. This balance mitigates information
overload during periods of very active SWx and dynamic changes in the weather criteria
thresholds. End users need real-time information in useable format to make informed, creditable
decisions to maintain safe and cost-effective operations for themselves and the customer.
1035
1036
Appendix C contains the threshold values and the necessary details from which more formal and
extensive performance requirements can be developed in the future.
5.1
SPACE WEATHER REQUIREMENTS FOR AVIATION
Functional Requirements
Performance Requirements
23
OFCM/OSTP, Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification and Potential Loss of ACE Spacecraft Solar
Wind Data on National Space Environmental Monitoring Capabilities (January 2008).
35
1037
6
OPERATIONAL SCENARIO
1038
1039
1040
1041
1042
It is envisioned that globally-harmonized SWx data and the categorization of SWx aviation
sources follow a path similar to that of terrestrial weather, and that the decision on the data and
categorization be agreed upon at the ICAO- and WMO-level. This work on aviation operations is
being undertaken by the FAA (for ICAO), ISES, and the WMO and is proposed for wider
consideration.
1043
1044
This section defines how SWx analysis capabilities can be used operationally. The usage
scenarios are derived from the User Needs document, as well as the existing general ConOps.
1045
1046
1047
The CPWG sub-group used Chicago-to-Hong Kong polar route operations to consider what SWx
information, observations, and forecasts are required for each of the impacted areas of the
operation as shown in Figure 6.
In Situ
1048
1049
1050
Figure 6: Phases of Flight
1051
1052
The SWx forecast will populate a consistent four-dimensional (4-D) grid of SWx information,
covering the entire airspace traversed by the depicted trajectory.
1053
1054
1055
1056
1057
1058
1059
1060
1061
1062
Flight planning DSTs that are not an ICAO requirement can retrieve relevant information from
this grid along the planned and alternative flight paths. This includes takeoff, through departure
climb, cruising altitude, and the descent to landing. If any type of SWx hazard exceeds
established risk tolerance levels anywhere along the flight path, the risk will be flagged by
the DST. In some of the more sophisticated DSTs, not only will operators be notified of the
SWx imposed hazard along a planned trajectory, but the DST will also generate alternate or
optimized trajectories to minimize the operators’ risk. The challenge is that not all airlines have
access to such tools, but the proportion of accessibility from airlines to utilize these safetyrelevant tools will continue to grow as shown in Figure 7. Scenarios are best-depicted with some
form of graphical sequence ladder diagram to show a conceptual decision-making process.
36
Flight Planner
Decision Support Tool
Space Weather Sensor
(Observations)
4-D Weather Grid
Continuous
Space Weather Model
Data
A
Continuous
B
C
D
E
G
F
H
I
1063
1064
1065
Adverse Space
Weather Event
Occurs
A
4-D SWx Grid Is Dynamically Updated With SWx Data
G
Adverse Space Weather Event Is Observed
B
4-D SWx Grid Is Dynamically Updated With Model Data
H
Grid is populated with Adverse SWx Info
C
Planner Requests Weather Information
I
DST receives adverse SWx information
D
DST Queries 4-D Weather Grid
E
DST Returns SWx Information
F
Planner Receives SWx Information from 4-D Grid
Figure 7: Ladder Sequence Diagram Showing How Operational Scenarios are Depicted
1066
1067
1068
1069
1070
1071
The following could become recommended actions if communications are forecast to be poor in
some area for a period. The Airport Authority should: (1) reduce traffic flow, as appropriate, in
response to the problem; (2) if the GNSS is going to be affected, issue a Notice to Airmen
(NOTAM) to that effect (the aircraft operator’s Mandatory Minimum Equipment List will show
whether flight is permitted without reliable GNSS); and (3) if a GNSS approach is planned at a
destination or alternate, a NOTAM should be issued to raise the approach/landing minima.
1072
1073
1074
1075
1076
1077
1078
Because the 4-D grid is updated dynamically, these risk mitigation decisions are reassessed
continuously, and the operator is only notified when established thresholds are reached during
any of the flight segments shown in Figure 6. While these tolerance levels have not yet been
established, a small group of subject matter experts are working to baseline these standards.
There is discussion that the NOAA Space Weather Scales serve as the starting point for
classifying the radio frequencies impacted by the solar event. DST mechanisms for flight
planning will need a consistent, appropriately-scaled, and dynamically-updated 4-D grid of SWx
37
1079
1080
1081
1082
1083
1084
1085
1086
hazard probabilities from which to draw information. More details on risk levels will be matured
once the operational and functional requirements have been established and the scientific
capabilities are in place to enable threshold-specific performance requirements to be further
matured when technological capabilities can routinely be achieved (sometime after
implementation into the ICAO Weather Annex 3). If the derivative products from some
authorized provider (MWO, RWC, etc.; and yet to be determined) are to be included as an
official product in Annex 3, proper arrangement should be made for dissemination of such
information to the appropriate authorized provider.
1087
7
1088
1089
There are several benefits to implementing global standards for the provision and use of SWx
information. These positive impacts include:
1090
1091
1092
1093
1094
1095
1096
1097
1098
1099
1100
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS




Improved SWx event analysis and forecast information
Improved dissemination of information about SWx events affecting international air
navigation
Improved flight planning to avoid the impacts of SWx events
Improved en route avoidance of SWx events by flight crews
This will result in maximum utilization of polar routes which improves the efficiency of
international flight operations and provides cost savings to the airline industry. In addition, safety
of flight will be improved through a reduction in potential encounters with SWx phenomena that
can degrade the performance of aircraft communications and navigation systems.
1101
1102
38
APPENDIX A: MATERIAL LIST OF REFERENCES
The footnote references throughout this document that describe SWx impacts on aviation
operations are listed by number in the table below.
Table 8: Reference List
#
ABBR
1
NSWP
2
ISWOF
3
JPDO
4
OFCM
Phase I
5
WMO
6
CPWG
7
FAA
8
SWPC
9
10
SWPC
SWPC
11
UAL
12
USGS
13
ICAO
14
ICAO
15
ICAO
16
ICAO
17
18
ICAO
ICAO
19
NASA
20
21
22
DOT
CFR
Website
23
MIT/LL
DOCUMENT TITLE
Report of the Assessment Committee for the National Space Weather Program, FCM-R242006, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological (OFCM) Services and Supporting
Research (June 2006).
Integrating Space Weather Observations& Forecasts into Aviation Operations,
American Meteorological Society (AMS) & SolarMetrics, Policy Workshop Report (March
2007) www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy.
Four-Dimensional Wx Functional Requirements for NextGen Air Traffic Management, JPDO
Weather Functional Requirements Study Group, Version 0.2 (15 February 2008).
OFCM/OSTP. Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification and Potential Loss of ACE
Spacecraft Solar Wind Data on National Space Environmental Monitoring Capabilities
(January 2008).
WMO Space Programme SP-5, The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather (April 2008).
Space Weather Sub-Group of the Cross Polar Working Group, Integrating Space Weather
Observations & Forecasts into Aviation Operations, Aviation Space Weather User
Requirements, Version 3.02 (November 2010).
Michael Stills, United Airlines, in support of FAA Concept of Operations for International
SWx Information, presentation at the AMS 9th Symposium on SWx (January 2012).
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Manual on Space Weather Effects in
Regard to International Air Navigation (January 2011).
SWPC Website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings).
SWPC Website: www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAScales.
Michael Stills, United Airlines, Polar Operations and Space Weather, presentation to the
Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF) (21 June 2011).
Dr. Jeffrey J Love, USGS, 91st Annual AMS Conference, 8th Symposium on Space Weather,
(January 2011).
ICAO Annex 2, Rules of the Air, To the Convention on International Civil Aviation,
Chapter 3, Ninth Edition (July 1990).
ICAO Annex 3, World Area International Air Navigation, Chapter 3, Meteorological Watch
Offices, Appendix 2, WAFS, 17th Edition (July 2010).
ICAO Annex 6, Chapters 6 and 12.
ICAO Annex 10, Aeronautical Telecommunications, Chapter 4, Aeronautical Fixed Services,
6th Edition (October 2001).
Annex 11, Chapter 6, Air Traffic Services Requirements for Communications, para 6.1.2.2.
Document 4444, Chapter 15, paragraph 15. 5.4, for Descents due to Solar Cosmic Radiation.
Dr. Christopher J. Mertens, Principal Investigator, NAIRAS 2009 Annual Report, NASA
Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA.
Office of Aerospace Medicine, Washington, DC, DOT/FAA/AM-03/16 (October 2003).
Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 14 (Aeronautics and Space).
http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Heliosphere
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory website
http://www.ll.mit.edu/mission/aviation/wxatmintegration/usedecisionsupport.html
A-1
APPENDIX B: DEFINITIONS
4-D Grid
A virtual, four-dimensional geographical coordinated grid of weather data information not
located in one single physical location linked to real-time enabling network for simultaneous,
reliable and secured connectivity.
ACE
NASA research satellite monitoring the space environment (solar wind) beyond the Earth’s
magnetic field along the Sun-Earth angle, one and one-half million kilometers out in space at a
point of equal gravitational equilibrium.
DST24
Use of Integrated Weather-ATM Decision Support Systems provides some interesting challenges
in development and benefits assessment because there is a mixture of aviation weather product
development and explicit modeling of some aspects of the aviation system itself.
Conventional Approach to Aviation Decision Making
In the “conventional” approach to aviation decision making, the human users must determine the
impact of the weather on the ATC system before a decision can be made. If DSTs (see Figure 8),
such as the Cooperative Route Coordination Tool (CRCT) in the Enhanced Traffic Management
System (ETMS), are used to aid in the execution of the conventional operational decision loop,
the user must provide results from the impact assessment phase (e.g., Flow Constrained Areas) to
the tools in order to take advantage of the decision guidance they provide. Although this
approach has been successful in a number of specific applications, it is becoming clear that it is
not adequate overall, since often the task of determining the weather impact manually can be
extremely difficult.
24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory website
http://www.ll.mit.edu/mission/aviation/wxatmintegration/usedecisionsupport.html
B-1
Overall convective weather impact mitigation process. The TMU workload associated with convective weather management
includes all five elements shown in the “operational decision loop.”
event reports
GBAS
It supports all phases of approach, landing, departure, and surface operations within its area of
coverage. The current ILS suffers from a number of technical limitations such as VHF
interference, multipath effects (for example, due to new building works at and around airports),
as well as ILS channel limitations. GBAS is expected to play a key role in maintaining existing
all-weather operations capabilities at different flight supporting airports. GBAS is seen as a
necessary step toward the more stringent operations required at airports supporting precision
approach and landing.
HELIOSPHERE25
The heliosphere is a bubble in space “blown" into the instellar medium (the hydrogen and
helium gas that permeates the galaxy) by the solar wind. Although electrically neutral atoms
from interstellar volume can penetrate this bubble, virtually all of the material in the heliosphere
emanates from the Sun itself.
For the first ten billion kilometers of its radius, the solar wind travels at over a million km per
25
http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Heliosphere
B-2
hour. As it begins to drop out with the instellar medium, it slows down before finally ceasing
altogether. The point where the solar wind slows down is the termination shock; the point
where the interstellar medium and solar wind pressures balance is called the heliopause; the
point where the interstellar medium, traveling in the opposite direction, slows down as it collides
with the heliosphere is the bow shock.
The solar wind consists of particles, ionized atoms from the solar corona, and fields, in
particular magnetic fields. As the Sun rotates once in approximately 27 days, the magnetic field
transported by the solar wind gets wrapped into a spiral. Variations in the Sun's magnetic field
are carried outward by the solar wind and can produce magnetic storms in the Earth's
own magnetosphere.
The heliospheric current sheet is a ripple in the heliosphere created by the Sun's rotating
magnetic field. Extending throughout the heliosphere, it is considered the largest structure in the
B-3
Solar System and is said to resemble a "ballerina's skirt" produce magnetic storms in the Earth's
own magnetosphere.
The heliosphere's outer structure is determined by the interactions between the solar wind and
the winds of interstellar space. The solar wind streams away from the Sun in all directions at
speeds of several hundred km/s (about 1,000,000 mph) in the Earth's vicinity. At some distance
from the Sun, well beyond the orbit of Neptune, this supersonic wind must slow down to meet
the gases in the instellar medium.
B-4
B-5
L1
A location on the Sun-Earth line where gravitational forces can be balanced to maintain a stable
orbit. Approximately 1.5 million miles upstream of the Earth. Solar wind monitors located there
allow a 20-60 minute (depending on solar wind velocity) warning of geomagnetic disturbances at
Earth.
NAIRAS26
The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is a
prototype operational model currently under development in the United States at the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Langley Research Center. The NAIRAS model
provides global, real-time, data-driven predictions of atmospheric ionizing radiation exposure for
archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation levels at commercial airline altitudes.
The sources of ionizing radiation are Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and Solar Energetic Particle
(SEP) events, which can accompany disturbances on the Sun’s surface. The composition and
energy spectra of atmospheric ionizing radiation originate from and are subject to variability in
SWx phenomena. As such, the NAIRAS model provides a SWx DST related to radiation impacts
on crew and passengers of long-haul aircraft, an area of national priority for NASA’s Applied
Science Program. The key NAIRAS data products are global distributions of vertical profiles of
radiation exposure rates, computed from the Earth’s surface to approximately 100 km in real
time. NAIRAS output will be made available at NOAA’s National Weather Service’s, Aviation
Digital Data Service (ADDS). NOAA/ADDS is a decision support system whereby NAIRAS
results can provide a tool for commercial airlines and aircrew to monitor current and
accumulated radiation exposure. The long-term goal is to transition the prototype NAIRAS
model into an operational system that will be adopted by NOAA/SWPC.
26
Dr. Christopher J. Mertens, Principal Investigator, NAIRAS 2009 Annual Report, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va.
B-6
PCA
An anomalous condition of the polar ionosphere where HF and VHF (3-300 MHz) radiowaves
are absorbed, and LF and VLF (3-300 kHz) radiowaves are reflected at lower altitudes than
normal. PCAs generally originate with major solar flares, beginning within a few hours of the
event and maximizing within a day or two of onset. As measured by a riometer, the PCA event
threshold is 2 dB of absorption at 30MIlz for daytime and 0.5 dB at night. In practice, the
absorption is inferred from the proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV, so that PCAs and
proton events are simultaneous. However, the transpolar radio paths may be disturbed for days,
up to weeks, following the end of a proton event.
RIOMETERS
The word riometer stands for Relative Ionospheric Opacity Meter. Riometers measure the
strength of radio noise originating from stars or galaxies and arriving at the earth after passing
through the ionosphere. A riometer is a passive scientific instrument used to observe ionospheric
absorption, particularly absorption at altitudes less than 110 km caused by electron precipitation.
The sky is filled with stars and galaxies that emit a broad spectrum of radio noise and the noise is
strong enough to be picked up using sensitive receiving equipment. Because some regions of the
sky are noisier than others, this noise varies on a predictable basis as the Earth rotates. Although
noise due to stars or galaxies may change over very long time frames, it is constant enough to be
considered a repeatable function of Local Sidereal Time.
RNP
Required Navigation Performance is a type of Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) that allows
an aircraft to fly a specific path between two three-dimensionally defined points in space. A
navigation specification that includes a requirement for on-board navigation performance
monitoring and alerting is referred to as an RNP specification. An RNP of .3 means the aircraft
navigation system calculates its position to within a circle radius of 3/10 of a nautical mile.
SOHO
A joint NASA/ESA (European Space Agency) research satellite with instrumentation to measure
the Sun to predict solar flare activity.
TEC
The Solar EUV and Lyman alpha emissions create the ionosphere by photo-ionization, which
ionizes neutral atoms and molecules producing free ions and electrons. The Total Electron
Content (TEC) of these positively and negatively charged particles embedded in the neutral
atmosphere form weak plasma that interacts with radio waves of various frequencies in different
ways.
B-7
APPENDIX C: FUNCTIONAL AND PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS
Functional Set of Space Weather Information Requirements
Operational Requirement
Space Weather conditions
information shall be provided to all
Stakeholders.
Space Weather conditions
information shall be delivered to all
Stakeholders.
Functional Requirement
Space Weather Information shall be provided by an ANSP:
1. The infrastructure to deliver observed space weather information.
2. The infrastructure to deliver solar radiation storm observations and forecasts.
3. The infrastructure to deliver geomagnetic storm observations and forecasts.
4. The infrastructure to deliver radio blackout event (solar flare) observations and
forecasts.
5. The infrastructure to deliver galactic cosmic ray observations and forecasts.
6. The infrastructure to deliver ionospheric activity observations.
Operational Requirement
To provide knowledgeable
understanding of current and space
weather conditions.
To provide information on current and
space weather conditions.
Space Weather conditions shall be observed:
Space Weather conditions shall be
observed.
1. Shall observe geomagnetic storms.2. Shall observe solar radiation storms.
2. Shall observe radio blackout (solar flare) events.
3. Shall observe galactic cosmic rays
4. Shall observe ionospheric activity.
To provide knowledgeable understanding
of current space weather conditions.
Space Weather conditions shall be forecast:
Space Weather conditions shall be
forecast.
1. Shall forecast geomagnetic storms.
2. Shall forecast solar radiation storms.
3. Shall forecast radio blackout (solar flare) events.
4. Shall forecast galactic cosmic rays
C-1
To provide knowledgeable understanding
of forecast space weather conditions.
1. Space weather information required from all available sources by the end users
shall be acquired for a Post-event Analysis (PEA).
Post-Event Analysis shall be
performed.
Space weather impacts shall be
defined.
a. Space weather information shall be collect by service-providing
organizations.
b. Operational response information shall be collect by the airlines.
c. The space weather related impact shall be analyzed through some postevent analysis.
d. Analysis results shall be use to improve space weather situational
awareness.
1. Space weather impacts on aviation operations will be defined.
2. Aviation operators shall define space weather impacts.
C-2
To improve knowledge of space weather
cause and effect.
To improve knowledge of space weather
impacts on aviation.
Operational Requirement
Space Weather Impacts resulting in
the disruption to or loss of HighFrequency (HF) communications
shall be defined.
Space Weather Impacts resulting in
the disruption to or loss of Very
High-Frequency (VHF)
communications shall be defined.
Space Weather Impacts resulting in
the disruption to or loss of Ultra
High-Frequency (UHF)
communications shall be defined.
Space weather impacts resulting in
the disruption to or loss of satellite
communications shall be defined.
Functional Requirement
Space weather impacts shall be defined for the disruption to or loss of HighFrequency (HF) communications.
Space weather impacts shall be defined for the disruption to or loss of Very HighFrequency (VHF) communications.
Space weather impacts shall be defined for the disruption to or loss of Utra HighFrequency (UHF) communications.
Space weather impacts shall be defined for the disruption to or loss of satellite
communications.
C-3
Reason for Requirements
Ability to make position reports and remain
compliant within the confines of ICAO
Annex 11 paragraph 6.1.2.2 and CFR 14, §
121.99 in the mid and low latitudes
(dayside), polar regions, and auroral
latitudes from geo-magnetic storms related
severe weather events: Solar Extreme
Ultra-Violet (EUV) or Solar X-rays during
flares, Solar Particle Events (SPE), and
Geomagnetic Storms.
Ability to make accurate position reports
and remain compliant within the confines
of ICAO Annex 11 paragraph 6.1.2.2 and
CFR 14, § 121.99 on the sunlight side due
solar radio noise.
Ability to make position reports and remain
compliant globally within the confines of
ICAO Annex 11 paragraph 6.1.2.2 and
CFR 14, § 121.99 due to geomagnetic
storms.
Ability to make position reports and remain
compliant globally within the confines of
ICAO Annex 11 paragraph 6.1.2.2 and
CFR 14, § 121.99 due to geomagnetic
storms.
Operational Requirement
Space weather impacts resulting in
variations on radiation that produce:
a. erroneous measurements on
onboard avionics
b. limit effects on humans
(accumulative exposure
amounts over time)
The impacts of space weather
affecting the reliance of GNSS are
defined.
Space weather warnings shall be
generated.
Space weather alerts shall be
generated.
Space weather updates shall be
generated.
Functional Requirement
1. The impacts of variations in radiation that produce erroneous measurements from
onboard avionics shall be defined.
2. Take action to adjust altitude to limit radiation exposure dosage potential to
aircrew and passenger.
The impact of space weather on the reliability of the GNSS (percentage of interruption
time) availability shall be defined from appropriate satellite navigation authorities as
already performed in some regions (i.e.; the FAA Satellite Navigation Services in the
United States) via a NOTAM.
1. Space weather warnings shall be generated containing a lead time of six hours and
essentially determined by a parameter forecast value to exceeding the next userspecified threshold level.
2. Space weather alerts shall be generated when the activity is forecast to remain
above the parameter actionable level, essentially determined by a forecast value
that continues to exceed the user-specified operational threshold and forecast time
of cessation.
3. Space weather updates shall be generated when the parameter value is forecast to
decrease below the parameter actionable level or operational threshold.
C-4
Reason for Requirements
Ability to measure radiation doses of
ionizing radiation energy > 100 MeV for
flights routes in Polar/High latitude regions
at high altitudes for aircraft, Reusable
Launch Vehicles (RLVs) and Expendable
Launch Vehicles (ELVs) effected by
Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), Solar Cycle,
and Solar Proton Events (SPE).
Ability to accurately determine and predict
occurrences of ionospheric scintillation and
solar radio burst to analysis the liability of
the positioning information used for
navigation, approach and landing due to
signal loss and allow for the utilization of
alternative methods in the equatorial and
auroral regions for solar EUV during flares,
Geomagnetic Storms, and SPEs.
To provide more clear description of space
weather information regarding its expected
severity to improve aviation operational
efficiency.
Space Weather Information for
observations define the current space
weather conditions, not just of the Sun but
its activity source, and the cause and effect
where the impact takes place.
Operational Requirement
Functional Requirement
Reason for Requirements
The future space weather conditions shall be described by specifying the time of the
condition in minutes, hours, or days in advance of the space weather impact aviation
industry-specified.
To provide future operations impacts along
flight route with confident accuracy and
allow cost effective tactical and strategic
flight planning to maximize efficiency
while maintaining safety.
Space weather conditions shall be
forecast with a user-specified update
rate.
Space weather conditions shall be
forecast with a user-specified latency.
Space weather conditions shall be
forecast with a user-specified
temporal increment.
Space weather climatology shall be
generated.
Space weather observations and
forecasts shall be reported in a
standardized user-specified text
format.
Space weather information graphical
analysis charts shall depict significant
Space weather across all defined
flight boundary regions.
Space weather information shall be
delivered using all available delivery
methods.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Scintillation climatology shall be generated.
Solar cycle climatology shall be generated.
Geomagnetic storm climatology shall be generated.
Solar radiation intensity climatology shall be generated.
High energy charged particle climatology for magnetic latitude regions shall be
generated.
Space weather reports shall be standardized in user-specified formats:
1. Space Weather information formats shall include graphical analysis charts of space
weather observations.
2. Space Weather information formats shall include textual space weather
observations.
3. Space Weather information shall be translated from standard formats into local
dialects.
1. All space weather information graphical analysis charts shall depict significant
Space weather across all defined flight boundary regions.
2. Space weather information shall be delivered by adequate available delivery
methods to reach end user in timely manner for effective risk avoidance.
3. Flight magnetic latitude regions shall be identified with expected durations of
impact from space weather hazards in corresponding reports.
4. Graphical analysis charts shall use standardize color schemes or shadings in
graphical reports similar to traffic light scheme used to define the distribution of
the space weather event severity based on performances by a nominal airframe
with typical flight deck equipage and instrumentation.
C-5
Used to interpret the type of phenomena
over time in support of post event analysis
of commercial, operational, safety and
technological impacts.
To mitigate cost of redundant infrastructure
and establishing a global standard for
global harmonization in format and content
consistency.
To mitigate cost of redundant infrastructure
and establishing a global standard for
global harmonization in format and content
consistency.
Operational Requirement
Space weather information shall be
standardized in format and content
within the reports and in line with
ICAO Annex 3 templates and
requirements.
The severity of space weather
impacts contained in the reports for
text and graphical displays to be
described in ICAO Annex 3.
The severity of space weather
impacts contained in the reports for
text and graphical displays shall
follow ICAO Annex 3 templates and
requirements.
Functional Requirement
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
All space weather reports shall be specified the station identifiers.
All space weather reports shall specify the affected airspace or solar regions.
All space weather reports shall follow standardized formats.
All space weather reports shall use defined boundaries of the solar regions.
All space weather reports shall specify the date and time of the report in
coordinated universal time (UTC).
6. All space weather reports shall comply with the ICAO Annex 3 templates.
7. All space weather reports shall comply with the ICAO Annex 3 requirements.
1. Space weather terminology shall be defined.
2. Standardize space weather terminology shall be defined.
3. Severity of impact in a standardized format in the space weather reports for text
and graphical displays shall be included.
4. The cause of the space weather hazard in space weather reports shall be specified.
5. The altitudes or flight levels of the hazard in space weather reports shall be
specified.
6. A standardized international severity storm index scale such as the NOAA Space
Weather Storm Scale shall be established and be used in describing the severity
index of the event and related impact.
7. The color schemes or shading (i.e.; traffic light system – red, yellow, green) in
graphical reports that are used to define the distribution of the space weather event
severity shall be standardized.
8. The standardized international severity storm scale index shall be in-line with
ICAO Annex 3 templates.
9. The standardized international severity storm scale index shall be in-line with
ICAO Annex 3 requirements.
C-6
Reason for Requirements
Developing a consistency in the content of
message that embraces global
harmonization in a global standard.
Developing a consistency in the content of
message that embraces global
harmonization in a global standard.
Operational Requirement
Space weather information
timelines and durations shall be
described for both text reports and
graphical charts (i.e.; forecast,
warning, alert, and update).
Space weather timelines and duration
shall be similar to terrestrial weather.
Space weather information accuracy
estimates shall be provided.
Functional Requirement
Reason for Requirements
The following information as warranted in all Forecast, Warnings, Alerts and Update
type messages shall include:
1. The applicable impact shall be defined.
2. The “from” validation time to include day of month shall be specified.
3. The “duration” of event or valid “to” time shall be specified.
4. Ongoing changes during the event shall be provided.
5. A space weather forecast shall be provided at the 4-synoptic times daily out to the
30-hour timeframe.
6. A space weather 30-hour forecast shall be provided every 6-hours.
7. For text message reports only, 30-hour Space Weather forecast shall be provided
every six hours unless conditions more warrant frequent updates.
8. Space weather forecast shall be provided daily for 3-Day and 7-Day time frames.
9. “Warnings” for space weather impacts shall be provided with six-hour lead time.
10. “Text” message reports for six-hour warning shall be provided describing any
Severe weather element forecast that increases the hazard index severity in
accordance to NOAA Space Weather Scale or another established international
severity index scale.
11. “Alert” messages shall be immediately delivered.
11a. “Alert” messages shall be valid for a specific time period where the activity is
forecast to remain above a specified threshold or will increase further based upon
the NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale or another established international
severity index scale.
12. “Update” messages as warranted shall be delivered in a manner described for
“Alert” messages but for the parameter changes where the space weather event
activity decreases below actionable levels.
These messages establish global
harmonization of space weather
information in a standardized manner that
reduces ambiguities while enhancing
operator efficiency over long-haul routes.
The space weather information with the accuracy shall be delivered as follows:
1. The space weather information shall state the reliability, percentage (%)
confidence levels or probability of information (alert/event/parameter, change,
etc.) occurring within the defined time frame of the report/graphic.
2. The accuracy or % confidence levels established for various hazards (not
standardized) is defined with current condition remarks supporting reliability
targets.
3. The space weather information provider shall use simple, plain language similar to
terrestrial reporting to describe familiar terminology for space weather events in
any of the current and accepted message format to include duration of the
phenomena in hours as changes warranted in space weather conditions causing or
lifting operational impacts.
Advocates global harmonization of space
weather information in single global
standard.
C-7
Operational Requirement
Functional Requirement
Reason for Requirements
The geomagnetic latitudes
corresponding to geographical
delineated regions affected by space
weather shall be defined across
aviation global airspace tied to
latitudinal geographical regions:
Polar Cap, Auroral Electrojet,
Middle-Latitude, Ring Current, and
Equatorial Electrojet.
The geomagnetic geographic latitude boundaries (Appendix G) and volumes affected
by the hazards within the report shall be defined:
1. The latitude and longitude shall be defined.
2. The Flight Information Regions (FIRs) shall be defined.
3. The ISE Regional Warning Centers (RWCs) regions shall be defined.
4. The altitudes/flight levels shall be defined.
Space weather events are generally global
in nature but depending on the type of solar
storm its severity index impact vary within
defined banded aviation airspaces around
the world requiring various mitigating
operational actions to maintain maximum
efficiency.
Space weather information, reports,
and charts shall be transmitted via all
currently available regulatoryapproved transmission methods.
Current aviation weather information transmission methods shall be utilized and
integrate with aviation operations in a similar manner to terrestrial weather whenever
possible:
1. Space weather information shall be transmitted via a qualified internet
communications Provider.
2. The text and chart reports shall be integrated with dispatch for forecast, warnings,
alerts and updates.
3. Audio-visual or “attention getters” reports associated with warnings, alerts and
updates for dispatchers shall be provided.
Using available and already established
infrastructure that is already familiar to the
operator will mitigate cost to the industry
and confusion when integrating this new
type of information into the system for
coordinated en route avoidance maneuvers
and more efficient flight planning.
C-8
Operational Requirement
The observed effects on disruptions
to HF communications and forecast
shall be provided to all stakeholders.
Functional Requirement
1. The severity of the solar event to HF disruption shall be quantified as set forth in
the NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale or an established international severity
index scale.
2. The related information based upon the severity on signal strength/loss, clarity and
available or best useable frequencies shall be provided.
3. The timelines and durations of HF disruption with the following information shall
be defined:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided
b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided
c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report
d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided
e. Current condition reports shall be provided
4. The forecast accuracy for HF disruption in a text or graphic report shall be
defined.
a. In 2016, space weather forecast conditions shall meet the defined
reliability percentage (%) confidence levels for these timeframes and
types of reports:
1. 7 days – 45%
2. 3 days – 55%
3. 30 hours – 65%
4. Warnings – 75%
5. Alerts – 75%
6. Updates – 75%
7. PEA – 99%
5. The geomagnetic geographic latitude region(s) defined in Appendix G (Figure 9)
for the HF disruption shall be recognized in regard to their products and service
messages.
C-9
Reason for Requirements
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of space
weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
Operational Requirement
The observations of disruptions to
VHF communications from space
weather events (from Sudden
Ionospheric Disturbance [SID] of
radio signals) occurring on the sunlit
side of the Earth shall be provided.
SID duration shall be forecast in
minutes and hours.
Functional Requirement
1. The severity of the solar event to VHF disruption shall be quantified as set forth in
the NOAA Space Weather Storm Scale or an established international severity
index scale.
2. The related information based upon the severity on signal strength/loss, clarity and
available or best useable frequencies shall be provided.
3. The timelines and durations of VHF disruption shall be defined with the following
information:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided
b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided
c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report
d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided
e. Current condition reports shall be provided
4. The forecast accuracy for VHF disruption shall be defined in a text or graphic
report.
a. In 2016, space weather forecast conditions shall meet the defined
reliability percentage (%) confidence levels for these timeframes and
types of reports:
1. 30 hours - 65%
2. Warnings – 75%
3. Alerts – 75%
4. Updates – 75%
5. PEA – 99%
5. The geomagnetic geographic latitude region(s) defined in Appendix G (Figure 9)
for the VHF disruption shall be recognized in regard to their products and service
messages.
C-10
Reason for Requirements
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of Space
Weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
Operational Requirement
The observations, forecasts and
descriptions of impact on a line-ofsight signal loss to UHF
communications shall be provided to
all stakeholders.
The line-of-sight signal loss to UHF
communications duration shall be
forecast in minutes and hours.
Functional Requirement
1. The severity of the solar event to UHF disruption shall be quantified as set forth in
the NOAA SWx Storm Scale or an established international severity index scale.
2. The related information based upon the severity on signal strength/loss, clarity and
available or best useable frequencies shall be provided.
3. The timelines and durations of UHF disruption shall be defined with the following
information:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided
b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided
c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report
d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided
e. Current condition reports shall be provided
4. The forecast accuracy for UHF disruption shall be defined in a text or graphic
report.
a. In 2016, space weather forecast conditions shall meet the defined
reliability percentage (%) confidence levels for these timeframes and
types of reports:
1. 7 days - 45%
2. 3 days - 55%
3. 30 hours - 65%
4. Warnings – 75%
5. Alerts – 75%
6. Updates – 75%
7. PEA – 99%
5. The geomagnetic geographic latitude region(s) defined in Appendix G (Figure 9)
for the UHF disruption shall be recognized in regard to their products and service
messages.
C-11
Reason for Requirements
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of Space
Weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
Operational Requirement
The observations and a description of
impact of the observed effects on a
line-of-sight signal loss to VHF/UHF
communications to the satellite
(classified as satellite
communications) shall be provided.
The line-of-sight signal loss to UHF
communications duration shall be
forecast in minutes and hours.
Functional Requirement
1. The severity of the solar event to satellite communication disruption shall be
quantified as set forth in the NOAA Storm Scale or an established international
severity index scale.
2. The related information based upon the severity on signal strength/loss, clarity and
available or best useable frequencies shall be provided.
3. The timelines and durations of satellite communication disruption shall be defined
with the following information:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided
b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided
c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report
d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided
e. Current condition reports shall be provided
4. The forecast accuracy for satellite communication disruption shall be defined in a
text or graphic report.
a. In 2016, space weather forecast conditions shall meet the defined
reliability percentage (%) confidence levels for these timeframes and
types of reports:
1. 30 hours - 65%
2. Warnings – 75%
3. Alerts – 75%
4. Updates – 75%
5. PEA – 99%
5. The geomagnetic geographic latitude region(s) defined in Appendix G (Figure 9)
for the satellite communication disruption shall be recognized in regard to their
products and service messages.
C-12
Reason for Requirements
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of space
weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
Operational Requirement
Observations and forecasts of
radiation environment that affect
avionics shall be provided to all
stakeholders.
Space weather shall be delivered to
all appropriate operational and Air
Traffic Management (ATM)
decision-makers using a decisionmaker matrix based upon similar
criteria for Preliminary Performance
Requirements formulated for the
United State’s NextGen arena
Functional Requirement
Reason for Requirements
1. The related information of Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) rates shall be provided
that will affect the aircraft avionics.
2. The solar radiation rates shall be provided that will affect the aircraft avionics.
3. The rate of change of the radiation environment rates (up or down) shall be
provided that will affect the aircraft avionics.
4. The peak radiation rates shall be provided that will affect the aircraft avionics.
5. The risk factor shall be provided on the aircraft avionics.
6. The high energy (ionized) particle spectra shall be provided for Post-Event
Analysis affecting aircraft avionics.
7. The timelines and durations of the radiation effects shall be provided with the
following information:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided
b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided
c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report
d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided
e. Current condition reports shall be provided
8. The forecast accuracy of the radiation effects shall be provided in a reliability
percentage (%) confidence levels for future text or graphic reports:
1. 7 days - 45%
2. 3 days - 55%
3. 30 hours - 65%
4. Warnings – 75%
5. Alerts – 75%
6. Updates – 75%
8. PEA – 99%
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of space
weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
1. The a matrix of space information types to all aviation decision-makers shall be
provided as recognized in Section 4.5 (Table 7).
2. The international aviation operators to develop a decision-maker matrix similar to
Section 4.5 (Table 7) shall be coordinated for future aviation operations.
To maximize operational efficiency and
cost benefit for the aviation industry
through global harmonization of space
weather information delivered in a global
standard framework.
C-13
Operational Requirement
Functional Requirement
Reason for Requirements
The method and delivery path of
well-defined regulated, and clearly
understood daily space weather pilot
briefing packs shall be provided
using similar practices and protocol
already established for terrestrial
weather information.
1. The seamless integration of space weather pilot briefing packs shall be advocated
into the operational routine.
1a. The space weather information availability shall be ensured to all decisionmakers at all management/user levels throughout the aviation industry.
2. The current methods of communicating aviation-related terrestrial weather
information shall be used when possible to ensure the information is timely,
standardized and consistent with aviation operational processes.
3. The space weather aviation information shall be integrated into the normal flight
planning and the terrestrial briefing weather packs for all pilots, dispatchers and
Air Traffic Control (ATC) personnel.
To assist in educating the pilots on blending
space weather impacts with terrestrial
hazardous and help improve their strategic
and tactical flight planning in maximizing
operational efficiency and cost benefit for
the aviation industry through global
harmonization of space weather
information delivered in a global standard
framework.
Space weather information education
and training shall be integrated into
operators, agencies and unions,
education and training programs.
1. An educational and training program shall be developed for a basic understanding
of the science and the terminology of space weather.
2. The space weather scientific education materials shall be developed on the impacts
of space weather on aviation operations.
3. The institutionalization of training programs at all levels to dispatchers, aircrews,
ATC personnel and meteorologists shall be advocated.
4. The materials in these programs shall be ensured they are standardized by
operation.
5. The standardization of space weather education and training material implemented
in training programs shall be ensured by aviation operators.
To ensure pilots, and all air traffic
management receive the necessary
education and uniform training required to
better understand space weather impacts on
aviation operations, which will improve all
phases of the operations from flight
planning to coordinating seamless
alternative maneuvers, in maximizing
operational efficiency and cost benefit for
the aviation industry through global
harmonization of space weather
information delivered in a global standard
framework.
The aviation community shall
coordinate globally to standardize
space weather information is delivery
and use for operations.
1. Space weather information shall be standardized.
2. The new and improved space weather information shall be standardized.
3. The aviation industry on space weather information shall be coordinated to ensure
data providers receive effective guidance on global standards.
4. The current terrestrial weather providers to support configuring space weather
information and services shall be coordinated in a similar standardized fashion for
delivery.
5. The space weather information and services shall be ensured to follow similar
standardization protocols regulated by classification, type and source.
Ensure space weather information and data
providers work with current terrestrial
weather providers to seamlessly configure
new space weather information and service
in a similar standardized manner for
delivery as part of global harmonization in
a single global standard.
C-14
APPENDIX C (continued)
Draft Performance Criteria Tables for Space Weather Obs and Forecast Products
(See Notes Below)
Accuracy,
Thresholds for
Observations
and Forecasts
Periods and Rates
for Forecast
Products
(Note 1, 2)
(Note 2)
Geomagnetic
Storms
NOAA Space
Weather Scale
for Geomagnetic
Storms
G1 through G5
30 hr fcst 4X day
plus amendments
3/7 day fcst
1Xday
Solar Radiation
Storms
NOAA Space
Weather Scale
for Solar
Radiation Storms
S1 through S5
30 hr fcst 4X day
plus amendments
3/7 day fcst
1Xday
Galactic Cosmic
Rays
Particles greater
than or equal
to100 MeV;
10% above
background
30 hr fcst 4X day
plus amendments
3/7 day fcst
1Xday
Radio Blackouts
(Solar Flares)
NOAA Space
Weather Scale
for Radio
Blackouts
R1 through R5
30 hr fcst 4X day
plus amendments
3/7 day fcst
1Xday
Element
Verification,
Confidence
Level
Latency
(Note 4)
Notes (includes data values
associated with space weather scale
thresholds, as applicable)
(Note 3)
Ionospheric
Activity
Total Electron
Content
Auroral Activity
Estimate
Baseline
TBD
2025 values:
FCSTS
7 days - 65%
3 days - 75%
30 hrs - 85%
6 hrs - 95%
OBS
Alerts - 95%
2016 values:
FCSTS
7 days - 45%
3 days - 55%
30 hrs - 65%
6 hrs - 75%
OBS
Alerts - 75%
K-index of 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
≤ 1 min for
Alert/Obs
≤ 15 minutes
for forecasts
This is not currently covered by a
Space Weather Scale. Character
of the alert/update/warning TBD.
X-Ray Flux exceeded 10-5 ,5x10-5
, 10-4, 10-3, 2x10-3 W·m-2
Analysis
15 minute update
interval
+/- 6 TEC
units
≤ 15 min
Analysis
90 minute update
interval
+/- 50 km
≤ 15 min
C-15
Proton Event 10 MeV Integral
Flux exceeded 10pfu, 100pfu,
1000pfu, 10000pfu, 100000pfu
Vertical TEC product
NA
Global D-Region
Absorption
Prediction
Analysis based
upon proton and
X-ray flux
5 minute update
interval
(D-RAP)
Proton Flux
Estimated
Planetary
(proton and
X-Ray flux
accuracies
1 min
D-RAP2 product
apply)
Flux .≥10, ≥100
MeV,
10 minute update
interval
+/-25%
1 min
solar radiation storm data
Analysis
3-hourly update
interval
TBD
5 min
geomagnetic storm data
5 min averages
in Watts/m2
5 minute update
interval
+/- 10%
5 min
radio blackout event data
K-Index
X-Ray Flux
C-16
Note1. Currently, an Alert is a special observation when a space weather element or scale number has passed above a threshold level.
It currently includes a duration which states the time remaining at or above that level. Currently, a summary message indicates that the
space weather element or scale number has passed below a threshold level.
Note 2. Thresholds are generally the space weather scale numerical values (except in the case of galactic cosmic rays). Thresholds
apply to both observations and forecast-type products, including forecasts that will be amended. The thresholds, in effect, become the
amendment criteria.
Note 3. Confidence percentages (referred to as verification percentages in performance requirements) are currently referenced as
either 2016 or 2025. Baseline confidence/verification is currently being developed. User Needs document specified a 6-hour lead time
on forecast threshold passage, 6-hour forecast is also referred to as a "warning."
Note 4. Latency values are currently being defined. Current definition for latency as used in this table: elapsed time from data
acquisition until delivery of data to the user (Latest time by which an element can be delivered and still useful to the customer).
C-17
Space Weather Functional Requirements (FR) Tied to Specific Performance Requirements (PR) for Observation and Forecast
Observations
Forecasts
1.0
Space weather conditions shall be observed.
FR
2.0
Space weather conditions shall be forecasted.
1.1
Geomagnetic storms shall be observed.
FR
2.1
Geomagnetic storms shall be forecasted.
1.1.1
The 3-hour Interplanetary K Index shall be estimated in Kp units.
FR
1.1.1-1
The 3-hour Interplanetary K Index shall be estimated with an update
interval of less than or equal to 3 hours.
PR
1.1.1-2
The 3-hour Interplanetary K Index shall be estimated with a latency
of less than or equal to 5 minutes.
Geomagnetic storms shall be determined at Space Weather Scale
levels G1 through G5.
1.1.2
N/A
N/A
PR
FR
1.1.2-1
An alert observation shall be generated when any geomagnetic
storm Space Weather Scale value is reached.
PR
1.1.2-2
A forecast duration shall be generated when a geomagnetic storm
alert observation is provided.
PR
1.1.2-3
An event summary message for a prior alert observation shall be
generated when the geomagnetic storm Space Weather Scale value
decreases below the alert value.
Space weather alert observations shall be generated for geomagnetic
storms with a latency of less than or equal to 1 minute
1.1.2-4
N/A
2.1.1
Geomagnetic storms shall be forecasted at Space Weather Scale levels
G1 through G5.
N/A
N/A
N/A
PR
PR
1.2
Solar radiation storms shall be observed.
FR
1.2.1
Solar proton flux shall be measured in particle flux units.
FR
1.2.1-1
Solar proton flux, from 10-² particle flux units to 10⁶ particle flux
units, shall be measured with an accuracy of plus or minus 25
percent.
PR
1.2.1-2
Five-minute integrated proton flux shall be measured for particles
greater than or equal to 10 megaelectronvolts.
PR
1.2.1-3
Five-minute integrated proton flux shall be measured for particles
greater than or equal to 100 megaelectronvolts.
PR
1.2.1-4
Solar proton flux shall be measured with a sampling interval of less
than or equal to 10 minutes.
PR
2.1.1-1
Forecasts for geomagnetic storms shall be generated with a latency of
less than or equal to 15 minutes.
2.2
Solar radiation storms shall be forecasted.
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
C-18
1.2.1-5
1.2.2
Solar proton flux shall be measured with a latency of less than or
equal to 1 minute.
Solar radiation storms shall be determined at Space Weather Scale
levels R1 through R5.
FR
1.2.2-1
An alert observation shall be generated when any solar radiation
storm Space Weather Scale value is reached.
PR
1.2.2-2
A forecast duration shall be generated when a solar radiation storm
alert observation is provided.
PR
1.2.2-3
An event summary message shall be generated for a prior alert
observation when the solar radiation storm Space Weather Scale
value decreases below the alert value.
Space weather alerts (observations) shall be generated for solar
radiation storms with a latency of less than or equal to1 minute.
1.2.2-4
2.2.1
Solar radiation storms shall be forecasted at Space Weather Scale levels
R1 through R5.
N/A
N/A
N/A
PR
PR
1.3
Galactic cosmic rays shall be observed in megaelectronvolts.
FR
1.3-1
Galactic cosmic rays shall be observed from 100 megaelectronvolts
to 2,000 megaelectronvolts with an accuracy of 5 percent.
PR
1.3-2
N/A
PR
An alert observation shall be provided when galactic cosmic rays
greater than or equal to 100 megaelectronvolts are observed when
greater than 10 percent above median background.
PR
1.3-3
A forecast duration shall be provided when a galactic cosmic ray
alert observation is provided.
PR
1.3-4
An event summary message for a prior alert observation shall be
provided when galactic cosmic rays decrease below 10 percent
above median background.
PR
1.3.5
Space weather alerts (observations) for galactic cosmic rays shall be
provided with a latency of less than or equal to1 minute.
PR
1.4
Solar flares shall be observed.
FR
1.4.1
Solar X-Ray flux shall be measured in Watts per meter squared.
FR
1.4.1-1
Solar X-Ray flux shall be measured in the 1-8 Angstrom passband.
PR
1.4.1-2
Solar X-Ray flux shall be generated in 5 minute averages.
PR
1.4.1-3
Solar X-Ray flux shall be generated with an update interval of less
or equal to 5 minutes.
PR
2.2.1-1
Solar radiation storms shall be forecasted with a latency of less than
or equal to 15 minutes.
2.3
Galactic cosmic rays shall be forecasted in megaelectronvolts.
2.3-1
Galactic cosmic rays from 100 megaelectronvolts to 2,000
megaelectronvolts shall be forecast when greater than 10 percent above
median background.
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.3-2
Forecasts for galactic cosmic rays shall be provided with a latency of less
than or equal to 15 minutes.
2.4
Solar flares shall be forecasted.
C-19
1.4.1-4
Solar X-Ray flux shall be measured with an accuracy of plus or
minus 10 percent.
1.4.1-5
Solar X-Ray flux shall be provided with a latency of less than or
equal to 5 minutes.
Radio blackouts shall be determined at Space Weather Scale levels
R1 through R5.
1.4.2
PR
PR
FR
2.4.1
Radio blackouts shall be forecast at Space Weather Scale levels
R1 through R5.
1.4.2-1
An alert observation shall be generated when any radio blackout
Space Weather Scale value is reached.
PR
N/A
1.4.2-2
A forecast duration shall be generated when a radio blackout alert
observation is provided.
PR
1.4.2-3
An event summary message for a prior alert observation shall be
generated when the radio blackout Space Weather Scale value
decreases below the alert value.
PR
1.4.2-4
Space weather alerts (observations) for radio blackouts shall be
provided with a latency of less than or equal to 1 minute.
PR
1.5
The auroral boundary shall be observed.
FR
N/A
1.5.1
Power flux shall be measured in gigawatts.
FR
N/A
1.5.1-1
An auroral activity estimate for greater than 30 degrees north and
south latitude shall be generated with a horizontal resolution of 50
kilometers.
PR
1.5.1-2
An auroral activity estimate shall be generated with a measurement
accuracy of plus or minus 50 kilometers.
PR
1.5.1-3
An auroral activity estimate shall be generated with a update rate of
less than or equal to 90 minutes.
PR
1.5.1-4
An auroral activity estimate shall be provided with a latency of less
than or equal to 15 minutes.
PR
1.6
Ionospheric activity shall be observed.
FR
1.6.1
Total electron content shall be measured in total electron content
units.
FR
1.6.1-1
Total electron content shall be measured with a horizontal
resolution of 100 kilometers.
PR
N/A
N/A
2.4.1-1
Radio blackout Space Weather Scale Values shall be forecasted with a
latency of less than or equal to 15 minutes.
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
C-20
1.6.1-2
Total electron content shall be measured from 0 to 400 total electron
content units with an accuracy of plus or minus 6 total electron
content units.
PR
1.6.1-3
Total electron content shall be generated with an update interval of
less than or equal to 15 minutes.
PR
1.6.1-4
Total electron content shall be provided with a latency of less than
or equal to 15 minutes.
PR
1.7
D-region absorption prediction product shall be generated.
FR
1.7-1
D-region absorption prediction product shall be generated with a
horizontal resolution of 5 degrees latitude and 15 degrees longitude.
PR
1.7-2
D-region absorption prediction product shall be generated with an
update interval of less than or equal to 5 minutes.
PR
1.7-3
D-region absorption prediction product shall be provided with a
latency of less than or equal to 1 minute.
PR
N/A
FR
2.5
Space weather forecasts shall be provided.
N/A
PR
2.5-1
A 7-day space weather outlook forecast shall be provided once per day.
N/A
PR
2.5-2
A 3-day space weather forecast shall be provided once per day.
2.5-3
A 30-hour space weather forecast shall be provided less than or equal to
every 6 hours.
2.5-4
The 30-hour space weather forecast shall be amended when the observed
Space Weather Scale level varies from the forecast level.
2.5-5
The 30-hour space weather forecast shall be amended when the forecast
timing for an event changes by greater than or equal to one hour within 6
hours.
2.5-6
The 30-hour space weather forecast shall be amended when a previously
non-forecast space weather event is expected within 6 hours.
The 30-hour space weather forecast shall be amended when the current
forecast Space Weather Scale value needs to be changed to a different
level within 6 hours.
N/A
N/A
N/A
PR
PR
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
PR
N/A
PR
N/A
2.5-7
PR
N/A
N/A
FR
2.6
2.6-1
PR
C-21
Space weather forecasts shall be verified (confidence level).
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from 0 to
less than or equal to 6 hours, with an accuracy of greater than or equal to
75 percent by 2016.
N/A
2.6-2
PR
N/A
2.6-3
PR
N/A
2.6-4
PR
N/A
2.6-5
PR
N/A
2.6-6
PR
N/A
2.6-7
PR
N/A
2.6-8
PR
N/A
2.6-9
PR
N/A
2.6-10
PR
N/A
2.6-11
PR
N/A
2.6-12
PR
C-22
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from 0 to
less than or equal to 6 hours, with an accuracy of greater than or equal to
95 percent by 2025.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 6 hours to less than or equal to 30 hours, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 65 percent by 2016.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 6 hours to less than or equal to 30 hours, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 85 percent by 2025.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 30 hours to less than or equal to 3 days, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 55 percent by 2016.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 30 hours to less than or equal to 3 days, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 75 percent by 2025.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 3 days to less than or equal to 7 days, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 45 percent by 2016.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 3 days to less than or equal to 7 days, with an accuracy of
greater than or equal to 75 percent by 2025.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from 0 to
less than or equal to 12 hours, with a timing accuracy of plus or minus 1
hour.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 12 hours to less than or equal to 30 hours, with a timing
accuracy of plus or minus 3 hours.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 30 hours to less than or equal to 3 days, with a timing
accuracy of plus or minus 6 hours.
Space weather forecasts shall be verified, for forecast period(s) from
greater than 3 days to less than or equal to 7 days, with a timing accuracy
of plus or minus 12 hours.
Note: This PR will not be required if an outlook will be verified by
occurrence anytime within the 3 to 7 day period with no timing accuracy
requirements. If a 12 hr timing accuracy is desired, this PR will apply.
APPENDIX D: SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS ON AVIATION
Communications – Polar Cap Absorption Impact
A Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event results from the ionization of the D-layer of the polar
ionosphere by SEPs - high energy protons (see #5 under Section 4.3.1 for details). A PCA causes
a HF radio blackout for trans-polar circuits and can last up to several days. PCAs are almost
always preceded by a major solar flare with the time between the flare event and the onset of the
PCA ranging a few minutes to several hours. Consequently, air traffic cannot operate over the
polar cap during these conditions.
Radio blackouts: disturbances of the ionosphere caused by X-ray emissions from the Sun.
HF radio degradation or blackouts are possible.
Radio blackouts primarily affect HF communication frequencies (3-30MHz) although
detrimental effects may spill over to VHF (30-300MHz) and beyond in fading and diminished
ability for reception. The blackouts are a consequence of enhanced electron densities caused by
the emissions from solar flares that ionize the sunlit side of the Earth.
The duration of dayside solar flare radio blackouts closely follows the duration of the solar flares
that cause them beginning with the arrival of the X-ray and EUV photons, and abate with their
diminution. Usually the radio blackouts last for several minutes, but they can last for hours.
There is also a class of longer duration radio blackouts that occur in the polar and very highlatitude regions that are a result of entirely different physics and have characteristics very much
different from the radio blackouts in equatorial and mid-latitudes, caused by solar flares. These
polar radio blackouts will be described in the Solar Radiation Storm section of this appendix.
Satellite-based navigation, though most affected near the poles and the equator, can be impacted
at middle latitudes. The solar activity on GPS that occurred in December 2006 when a solar radio
burst in a solar flare was so strong that it overwhelmed the GPS signal at L-band, causing a
several-minute-long interruption to geodetic-grade GPS receivers operating on the dayside of
Earth.
Notwithstanding rules for controlled flights from ICAO Annex 2 and 11, which state that
aviation communications are either possible according to paragraph 3.6.5, or the ICAO
communication failure rule have to be followed:27
An aircraft operated as a controlled flight shall maintain continuous air-ground voice
communications watch on the appropriate communication channel of, and established
two-way communication as necessary with, the appropriate Air Traffic System (ATS)
authority in respect of aircraft forming part of aerodome traffic at a controlled
aerodome.
27
Annex 11, Chapter 6, Air Traffic Services Requirements for Communications, para 6.1.2.2
D-1
Note 1: Selective Calling (SELCAL) or similar automatic signaling devices satisfy the
requirement to maintain an air-ground voice communication watch.
Note 2: The requirement for an aircraft to maintain an air-ground communication watch remains
in effect after CPDLC has been established.
Consideration for future improvements may include definition of dimensions for affected areas
for trans-oceanic communications, on the sunlit side of the Earth.
Radiation – Communication and Human Impacts
The issue of unhealthy radiation exposure on humans was brought to light when polar flight
routes were opened over the last decade. This document purposely does not go into detail
defining requirements of capabilities/functions to be included on radiation effects on humans.
This challenge will be handled by individual entities within their respective operations for the
near-future with reference to the safety Management Systems concept and ICAO handbook 9859
as well as the ICRP guidance on radiological protection. Commercial aviation routine flights at
polar high latitudes operate in an environment that has the least protection from the Earth’s
atmosphere from highly charged ionized particles due to the configuration of the magnetic field
lines. Consideration of future improvements need to address communication HF outages over the
polar region. Current practice in the southern hemisphere excludes the entire polar region for
each event. But there were measurements made at higher flight altitudes over the Great Lakes at
lower latitudes that measured increased radiation exposure to warrant concern during the
Halloween 2003 solar storm event. The increased dosage in radiation also depends on the
spectrum of the solar radiation storm. The more intense the solar storm, the higher the energies
of the proton particles, the so-called “hard” spectrum, at the top of the atmosphere, causing
radiation dose increases that raise concern for human health. The measurements from aircraft on
high latitude routes have shown real increases in the radiation dose rate during solar radiation
storms. On April 15, 2001 a radiation storm with a hard spectrum occurred as a commercial
airline flight from Frankfurt to Dallas – Fort Worth carrying dosimeters caught the onset, peak,
and decay of the radiation increase during flight. SWx data from the Moscow Neutron Monitor
confirmed the solar eruption. The finding was the radiation dose increased by a factor 2 to 2.5
before returning to near background levels after approximately three hours. This is but one
example of data taken from aircraft showing the increased dose rate during solar radiation
storms.28
28
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Manual on Space Weather Effects in Regard to International
Air Navigation (January 2011).
D-2
Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of and
the energy levels of SEP increase. Typical effects from solar radiation storms include
degradation to satellite sensors, memory micro-chips, and power systems, radiation hazards
to humans in flight at high altitudes and/or high latitudes. HF radio blackouts and induced
positional errors to GPS are also possible.
Solar radiation storms occur when large quantities of charged particles, primarily protons, are
accelerated by processes at or near the Sun and then the near-Earth environment is bathed with
these charged particles. These particles cause an increase in the radiation dose to humans, and
create an increased possibility of single event upsets in electronics. Earth’s magnetic field and
atmosphere offer some protection from this radiation, but that shielding decreases with altitude,
latitude, and magnetic field strength and direction. The polar region on Earth are most vulnerable
to these charged particles, because the magnetic field lines at the poles extend vertically
downwards intersecting Earth’s surface, which allows the particles to spiral down the field lines
and penetrate into the atmosphere increasing the ionization.
A significant factor relating to the criticality of the radiation increase at Earth is the spectrum –
the energy distribution – of the solar protons. Earth will be bathed by protons of varying
energies, as a function of the eruption at the Sun and the magnetic connection between the Sun
and Earth. High-energy protons, the so-called “hard” spectrum, cause radiation dose increases
that are of concern to human beings. Lower energy protons, the “soft” spectrum, have little effect
on humans but have a severe impact on the polar ionosphere and high latitude HF propagation.
The duration of solar radiation storms is affected by the magnitude of the solar eruption as well
as the received spectrum. For events that are of a large magnitude but a soft spectrum, the
duration may last for one week. Events that are of large magnitude but a hard spectrum may last
for only a few hours. There is a great diversity in the duration of solar radiation storms, as there
are many factors that contribute to the acceleration and propagation of the charged particles near
Earth.
Some definition of contingency procedures should be considered for example descent to lower
altitude for all aircraft from safety of flight prospective. But additional consideration should be
given to applying updated provisions of the ICAO document 4444 governing the descent of any
futuristic routinely flying air vehicle being forced in unscheduled manner to descent into
altitudes with of traffic capacity due to solar radiation over those portions of the airspace, where
non-forecasted effects of solar events are now expected.29 These solar radiation storm effects
could be displayed in graphical text service product described in the FAA handbook on the Solar
Radiation Alert System below:
29
Document 4444, Chapter 15, paragraph 15.5.4, for Descents due to Solar Cosmic Radiation
D-3
Solar Radiation Alert System (Revised 30 May 2008) DOT/FAA/AM-09/6, Office of
Aerospace Medicine Washington, DC 20591
This document does not go into any detail on existing general rules describing human exposure
to ionizing radiation. The generally accepted principle of radiation protection being the
ALARA principle (As Low As Reasonably Achievable – taking into account economic and
social considerations), detailed rules are laid down in documents such as:
ICRP 103, International Commission on Radiological Protection, Publication 103, 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection
with an annual limit of 20 mSv for occupational exposure for airline flight crews and,
NEA Paper 6920 ICRP Recommendations/ EU BSS Draft 24.02.2010
according to which, for example, the recognition of flight personnel as Category A
occupationally exposed workers is necessary, as they are liable to receive an effective dose
D-4
greater than 6 mSv per year. Flight personnel with an effective dose of more than 1mSv/yr
should be recognized as occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation.30
30
Office of Aerospace Medicine, Washington, DC, DOT/FAA/AM-03/16 (October 2003).
D-5
Navigation - Avionic Error Impacts Resulting from Solar Activity
Aircraft en route poleward of 780N and 600S of latitude can experience large errors in tracking
aircraft position during a disruptive SWx event. The electronic components of aircraft avionic
systems are susceptible to damage from the highly ionizing interactions of cosmic rays, solar
particles and the secondary particles generated in the atmosphere. As the size of these component
chips become smaller, and therefore more susceptible to SWx, the risk of highly charged
particles from SWx activity corrupting micro-chips increases and can lead to erroneous outputs
during flight operations. These software errors are referred to as Single Event Upsets (SEU).
This problem is expected to increase as more, low-power, small feature size electronics are
deployed in “more electronically enabled” aircraft, which usually do not have redundant systems.
Data collected from satellites incorporating sensitive Random Access Memory (RAM) chips
have had upset rates from one per day without solar activity to several hundred per day during
solar radiation storm.31
Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar
wind that blows by Earth. Typical effects from geomagnetic storms include degradation of
HF radio transmissions, satellite navigation degradation, and disruption of low frequency
radio navigation systems. Geomagnetic storms can also disrupt ATC facilities and other
national airspace components are susceptible to these power outages.
The duration of geomagnetic storms is usually on the order of days. The strongest storms may
persist for almost one week, and a string of CMEs may cause prolonged disturbed periods related
to the additional energy being pumped into the system.
The intensity of geomagnetic storms is often given in terms of the K index. In general terms, the
K index captures the variance from the quiet day behavior of the geomagnetic field, and is
measured every three hours. The K index ranges from 0 (most quiet) to 9 (most disturbed). More
detailed description of the indices is given later in this section.
The NOAA G-Scales describe the most intense storms, the extreme G5 level events, as having at
least one K = 9 occurring, the highest K index attainable. A NOAA G-Scale minor (G1) K = 5
storm is thought to be the level of disturbance with the least noticeable impact.32
31
American Meteorological Society (AMS) and SolarMetrics, Policy Workshop Report, Integrating Space Weather
Observations and Forecasts into Aviation Operations (March 2007), www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy
32
NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Manual on Space Weather Effects in Regard to International
Air Navigation (January 2011).
D-6
Figure 8: The Time Scales of Solar Effects (Source: NOAA SWPC)
Eight minutes after a flare and/or a CME erupts from the Sun, the first blast of EUV and X-ray
light increases the ionospheric density, which can impact HF communication loss.
D-7
APPENDIX E: SPACE WEATHER ALERT AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
SWx alerts and warnings need to be integrated into the normal operations of commercial airlines
on a more frequent basis.
SWx alerts are issued for these categories. Alerting criteria and descriptions for the SWx
activities below would be provided in concert with the NOAA Space Weather Scales presented
in the Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3.33







33
X-ray Flux Alert and Event Summaries
Radio Burst Alerts and Summary
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Warning and Alert
Geomagnetic K-index Warnings and Alerts
Geomagnetic A-index Watches
Electron Flux Alert
Proton 10MeV and 100MeV Flux Warnings, Event Alerts and Summaries
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings)
E-1
NOAA’s SWPC is currently providing SWx alerts and forecasts and information to the user as
follows:34
Alerts and Forecasts
Title
Info
Update
Latest
Older
SWPC Space Weather Alerts; watches,
warnings, alerts, and summaries
Info
when issued
latest
Sept 2001
Space Weather Advisory Bulletin
Info
when issued
latest
6 months
3-hourly WWV Geophysical Alert Message
Info
3 hours
latest
75 days
Solar and Geophysical Activity Report and 3day Forecast
Info
2200 UT
web,
ftp file
last 75 or
warehouse
3-day Space Weather Predictions
Info
2200 UT
latest
75 days
45-day Ap and 10.7cm Forecast
--
2114 UT
latest
20 days
Weekly Highlights and 27-day Forecast
Info
Tuesday
latest
1997
27-day 10cm, Ap, and Max Kp Outlook
Info
Tuesday
latest
1997
Space Weather Advisory Outlook
Info
Tuesday
latest
6 months
Solar Cycle Progression
Info
Monthly
web
ftp ssn -flux
--
Predicted Monthly Sunspot Number & 10cm
Radio Flux
Info
Monthly
latest
--
As Conditions Warrant
Daily or less
Weekly
Monthly
34
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings)
E-2
Current Support Environment
Collective international efforts have resulted in the availability of SWx advisory products
displays, forecasts, and warning messages from the NOAA SWPC operationally supported 24
hours a day, seven days a week.35
SWPC Reports and Summaries
Title
Info
Update
Latest
Older
Archive
Info
5 min
updating
no
no
--
5 min
updating
no
no
SW for Aviation Service Providers
Info
1 min
updating
no
no
Solar and Geophysical Activity
Report and 3-day Forecast
Info 2200 UT
web,
ftp file
75 days
1996
Solar Region Summary
Info 0030 UT
latest
75 days
1996
Solar and Geophysical Activity
Summary
Info 0245 UT
latest
75 days
1996
Daily Summary of Space Weather
Observations
Info 0200 UT
latest
75 days
no
GEOALERT
Info 0330 UT
latest
75 days
1996
Weekly Highlights and 27-day
Forecast
Info Tuesday
latest
1997
SWPC
"The Weekly" - Preliminary Report
and Forecast of Solar Geophysical
Data
Info Tuesday
latest
1997
SWPC
Info monthly
latest
cycle
no
Daily or less
"Space Weather Now"
"Today's Space Weather"
Weekly
Monthly
Solar Cycle Progression
Longer
Solar Proton Events Affecting the
Earth Environment
SWPC Forecast Verification
--
as needed
2005
1976
SWPC
Info
yearly
2003
1986
SWPC
This ConOps will convey how SWx alerts and warnings can be integrated into DSTs.
35
SWPC website: www.swpc.noaa.gov (Alert/Warnings)
E-3
APPENDIX F: DELINEATING REGIONS OF SPACE WEATHER
IMPACT
The geomagnetic field is a continuum and therefore different SWx phenomena affect
geomagnetic latitudes in various ways. The geomagnetic science arena has delineated such with
regard to their geographic distribution of modern ground-based ionosphere observatories around
the world.
Part of the effort for global harmonization of SWx information in a single standard is to
encapsulate the intensity and expected impacts in a temporal and spatial sense. This geomagnetic
geographic latitude stratification may help frame a watch/warning/alert/update type message for
the aviation industry to better interpret and picture the solar event in flight planning or tactical
maneuvers while en route.
Perhaps SWx effects on global airspace could be delineated along these boundaries already
established as depicted in Figure 9.36 Depending on the type and severity of the solar event, its
impact can vary over different magnetic latitudes and be captured in a more understandable
display from a visual prospective of the user. The variety of users who can better grasp the
magnitude of the expected impact at the different magnetic latitudes along the long-haul route
would certainly help in the flight planning in various ways to mitigate the lost in operational
efficiency and cost.
36
Dr. Jeffrey J Love, USGS, 8th Conference on Space Weather, 91st Annual AMS Conference, Long-Term Change
in Geomagnetic Activity Presentation (January 2011).
F-1
Figure 9: Magnetic Latitudes Already Established for Magnetic Observatories Around the World
Note: The Auroral Electrojet does exist in the southern hemisphere but is not measured due to
the total lack of monitoring stations (notice no orange color dots similar to the northern
hemisphere) because of the absence of land areas to establish the necessary monitoring network
F-2
APPENDIX G: BI-LATERAL AGREEMENTS
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will work with European Aviation Safety Agency
(EASA) as the authority representing those European Union Member States and EASA
associated countries with who the U.S. currently has existing bi-lateral agreements. Additionally,
FAA Order 8100.14 describes the continuing working relationship between the FAA and EASA.
There was an international executive agreement and its two annexes (Airworthiness and
Maintenance) to the overall agreement signed on June 30, 2008. However, the new agreement
will not enter into force until resolution of pending Congressional legislative language regarding
inspection of foreign repair stations.
FAA approval of European products, parts, and appliances will continue for
those products covered under a bilateral agreement with an European Union
Member State. Until a new bilateral agreement is concluded with the Community
that would govern the acceptance of products between the U.S. and the entire
Community as a single entity, the FAA can only accept applications for validation
and import into the US of products, parts and appliances from European Union
Member States within the scope of the current bilateral agreements
G-1
APPENDIX H: INTRODUCTION TO SPACE WEATHER
Space weather (SWx) can be defined as the conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind,
magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability
of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health
of aviation flight crews and passengers.37 Unlike terrestrial weather, SWx effects can be global
with the onset of their impacts on the earth’s atmosphere. The time-scale comparison of impacts
on aviation altitudes is also much more rapid following the eruptive episode from either the
Sun’s surface and/or solar outer atmosphere. These events can occur independently or together.
Solar flares are the eruptions from the Sun’s surface and a CME is an eruption of a large volume
of the Sun’s atmosphere – the Corona. These magnetic energy events interact with the Earth’s
magnetosphere, which allows the highly charged particles from the Sun to travel along the
magnetic field that converges at the poles and penetrate into lower altitudes – aviation altitudes.
Ground-based instruments and space-based sensors measure the magnetic fields of highly
charged particles emitted from the Sun to help better understand and predict potential impacts
from SWx activities.
The electronic components of aircraft avionic systems are susceptible to damage or interference
from the highly ionizing interactions associated with cosmic rays, solar particles and the
secondary particles generated within the Earth’s atmosphere. Electromagnetic energy associated
with a single solar storm on the Sun’s surface is projected out into deep space traveling at the
speed of light, arriving at the Earth in about eight minutes. The transit time for energetic particles
associated with a CME from the Sun for the same solar event takes longer to reach the Earth’s
atmosphere, from tens of minutes to a few hours, depending on the characteristics and source
locations of the emitted particles. Since the Sun is a variable star, its output can vary over a wide
range of time-scales depending on the type of solar event (solar flares, solar protons from
Radiation Storms), as well as over the long-term eleven-year solar cycle, with Extreme Ultra
Violet (EUV) radiation, for example, dimming and brightening by a factor of four or five.
37
WMO Space Programme SP-5, The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather (April 2008).
H-1