March 2012 Investment Research - PROIN Investment and Consulting

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Cement Industry

By Rendy Stephanus rendys13@proinindonesia.com

1.

Industry in Brief

Indonesia Domestic cement sales for 2011 reached 48m tons (+17.7% y-o-y), on the back of strong sales in Java Island, which hit 26.5m tons (+20.9% y-o-y). The areas in Banten,

Jakarta and West Java chalked up the highest sales growth, driven by brisk housing development and also the rapid rollout of infrastructure projects, such as the construction of fly-overs and roads in Jakarta.

Notably, sales outside Java was also strong, hitting 21.5m tons (+13.9% y-o-y) on the back of high sales growth in Riau, Lampung, South Sulawesi and West Kalimantan.

In 2012, cement consumption is estimated to reach 51m tons (+7% y-o-y).

Cement Sales Volume by Region

Market Share

Market Share

(Based on 9m11 Sales Volume)

Semen Gresik Indocement Holcim Other

12%

40%

16%

32%

The market share in Indonesia is still dominated by 3 biggest listed cement companies, such as Semen Gresik (19,718,448 tons), Indocement Tunggal (13,945,244 tons), and

Holcim Indonesia (7,354,846 tons).

National Production and consumption

National production near maximum capacity. The utilized production capacity rate for

2011 stood at 86%, which increased from 77% in the previous year.

This year, two new cement plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons per annum will come on stream, thereby increasing the national production capacity to 61m tons (+9% yo-y) in 2012.

Even with this additional capacity, government expect the utilized production rate to remain high in anticipation of strong 2012 cement consumption, which is estimated to reach 51m tons (+7% y-o-y).

Low interest rate stimulates cement consumption. It will be promising housing sales growth for 2012, given that the benchmark interest rate is now at the lowest level. The

Indonesian Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 5.75% in 2012.

This is likely to increase property sales, thereby maintaining the overall property sector’s highgrowth rate that, in turn, is expected to drive cement consumption growth in 2012.

Based on the Central Bank’s data, residential unit sales in 14 major Indonesian cities continued to register healthy growth in the past two years. Total unit sales in 2010 jumped 14.0% y-o-y, while the unit sales for 9M11 increased by 16% y-o-y.

Moreover, the new policy on land acquisition for public use could help accelerate the rollout of infrastructure projects.

2.

Cement Producers:

Listed Company

-Semen Gresik (SMGR)

-Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP)

-Holcim Indonesia (SMCB)

Unlisted Company

-Lafarge Cement Indonesia

-Semen Kupang

-Semen Bosowa

-Semen Baturaja

Listed Company

Semen Gresik (SMGR)

1. Company in brief:

The company was established in 1957. Shareholder of this company are:

-Government: 51.01%

-Blue Valley Holdings Pte: 24.9%

-Public: 24.09

Semen Gresik is the largest cement group in Indonesia. The group of Semen Gresik are:

-Semen Gresik ( plant location: Gresik and Tuban)

-Semen Padang ( plant location: Indarung )

-Semen Tonasa ( plant location: Pangkep )

It has the largest marketshare in sales volume, backed up by 20.5 million tons per year of the factories’s total capacity. In 2012, the company targeted to incerease the production to 22.5 million tons per year.

2.Corporate news :

Semen Gresik built packing plant with capacity 300.000 ton / year in Banyuwangi. The purpose is to minimize distribution cost to East Java and Bali. The investment cost Rp 120 billion.

The company targeted to have 30 packing plants in 2015, until now it has 21 packing plans.

Semen Gresik will build cement factorry in Manokwari. The project cost Rp 1.2 trillion and will start in 2014. The capacity of the plants is 600,000 tons / year

2009

17,780,881

3.Financial data and Stock

Semen Gresik Sales Volume

2010

17,930,237

2011

19,718,448

2012F

21,690,293

Semen Gresik Financial Statement

Year

Last Price

Share Out.

2012F 2011F 9m11

11,150

5.9 B

2010

9,450

5.9 B

2009

7,550

5.9 B

2008

4,175

5.9 B

Market Cap. 66,136.4 B 56,052.9 B 44,783.0 B 24,764.1 B

Balance Sheet

Cash

Total Asset

S.T. Borrowing

L.T. Borrowing

Total Equity

2760.0 B

31.7 B

1388.4 B

3664.3 B 3410.3 B 3746.7 B

17804.3 B 15563.0 B 12951.3 B 10603.0 B

86.6 B

599.6 B

0

107.4 B

0

156.8 B

13450.8 B 12006.4 B 10197.7 B 8069.6 B

Income Statement

Revenue 18,979 B 16,625 B 11,610.8 B 14,344.2 B 14,387.9 B 12,209.8 B

Gross Profit 9,777 B 8,033 B 5,282.7 B

Operating Profit 6,537 B 5,278 B 3,402.1 B

6,810.1 B

4,489.0 B

6,774.1 B

4,342.6 B

5,354.6 B

3,387.2 B

Net. Profit

EBITDA

Interest Expense

5,081 B

7,653 B

4,118 B

6,243 B

2,761.0 B

3,402.1 B

20.2 B

Ratio

3,633.2 B

4,868.8 B

26.1 B

3,326.5 B

4,717.2 B

290.7 B

2,523.5 B

4,006.1 B

199.6 B

EPS

PER

BVPS

PBV

ROA

ROE

EV/EBITDA

Debt/Equity

Debt/TotalCap

Debt/EBITDA

EBITDA/IntExps

465

23.98x

2,267.68

4.92x

15.51%

20.53%

19.05

0.11

0.1

0.42

168.6

612.53 560.82 430.29

15.43x 13.46x 9.70x

2,024.18 1,719.24 1,360.46

4.67x

23.35%

30.26%

10.9

4.39x

25.68%

32.62%

8.79

3.07x

23.80%

31.27%

5.29

0.06

0.05

0.14

186.53

0.01

0.01

0.02

16.22

0.02

0.02

0.04

20.07

SMGR

14 000

12 000

10 000

8 000

6 000

4 000

2 000

-

07.08.2007

07.08.2008

07.08.2009

07.08.2010

07.08.2011

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP)

1. Company in Brief

The company was established in 1975. The company was established in 1957. Shareholder of this company are:

- Birchwood Omnia Limited: 51%

- PT. Mekar Perkasa: 13.03%

- Public & creditors: 35.97%

Indocement has integrated cement operations with a total annual capacity of 18.6 million tons of cement. Currently operates 12 plants, nine of which are located in Citeureup,

Bogor, West Java; two in Palimanan, Cirebon, West Java; and one in Tarjun, Kotabaru, and

South Kalimantan.

The Company's main products are Portland Composite Cement (PCC) and Ordinary

Portland Cement (OPC). It also produces other types of cement such as Portland Cement

Type I and Type V, as well as Oil Well Cement. Indocement is the only White Cement producer in Indonesia.

LOCATION PLANT

Annual Cement

Capacity

(million tons)

Citeureup, Bogor, West Java

Palimanan, Cirebon, West Java

Tarjun, Kotabaru, South Kalimantan

9 Plants

2 Plants

1 Plant

11.9 tons

4.1 tons

2.6 tons

Total 12 Plants 18.6 tons

2. Corporate news:

In 2013, the production will increase 2.5 million tons more, due to the completion of construction of new plants in Pati.

Indocement Sales Volume

2009

11,588,484

2010

12,582,611

2011

13,945,244

2012F

15,456,844

3. Financial data and stock

Year

Last Price

Share Out.

Market Cap.

2012F

Indocement Financial Statement

2011F 9M11

17,550

3.7 B

2010

15,950

3.7 B

2009

13,700

3.7 B

2008

4,600

3.7 B

64,605.6B 58,715.6B 50,432.9B 16,933.7B

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

5 000

-

Balance Sheet

Cash

Total Asset

S.T. Borrowing

L.T. Borrowing

Total Equity

5,832.2 B 4,684.9 B 2,623.5 B 793.2 B

21,244 B 18,637 B 16,995.1 B 15,346.1 B 13,276.3 B 11,286.7 B

65.0 B 257.2 B 235.0 B 273.8 B

133.8 B 112.5 B 38.1 B 99.5 B

14,723.2B 13,077.4B 10,680.7B 8,500.2B

Income Statement

Revenue 14,321B 12,599B 9,779.6 B 11,137.8B 10,576.5B 9,780.5 B

Gross Profit 7,939 B 6,499 B 1,585.6 B 5,540.8 B 5108.4 B 4,024.6 B

Operating Profit 6,036 B 4,686 B 3,195.6 B 420.0 B 3693.3 B 2,459.9 B

Net. Profit 4,686 B 3,643B 2,585.8 B 3,224.9 B 2,746.7 B 1,745.5 B

EBITDA

Interest Expense

6,950 B 5,475 B 3,195.6 B 4,618.9 B 4241.2 B 3,073.1 B

17.4 B 16.1 B 41.4 B 156.0 B

Ratio

EPS

PER

BVPS

PBV

ROA

ROE

EV/EBITDA

Debt/Equity

Debt/TotalCap

Debt/EBITDA

EBITDA/IntExps

702.44

24.98x

3999.52

4.39x

15.22%

17.56%

18.45

0.01

0.01

0.06

184.09

876.05

18.21x

3552.45

4.49x

21.01%

24.66%

11.78

0.03

0.03

0.08

287.17

746.12

18.36x

2901.4

4.72x

20.69%

25.72%

11.34

0.03

0.02

0.06

102.35

474.16

9.70x

2309.06

1.99x

15.47%

20.53%

5.37

0.04

0.04

0.12

19.7

INTP

Holcim Indonesia

1. Company in brief

Founded as PT Semen Cibinong in 1971, the first company listed on the Indonesia Stock

Exchange in 1977. Because it has promising business, Holcim bought the company share in

2006, and then it became Holcim Indonesia.

Shareholder of this company are:

-Holcim: 77.33%

-Public & creditors: 22.67%

Holcim Indonesia is a provider of cement-based building materials and services with operations in Indonesia and Malaysia. It supplies homebuilding products, as well as products for commercial and infrastructure projects. It is the 3 rd largest cement company in Indonesia.

Holcim Indonesia operates two plants, at Narogong, West Java, and Cilacap, Central Java, and a cement grinding station at Ciwandan, Banten. Cement production annual capacity is currently at 8.3 million tons.

2. Corporate news:

A third cement plant in Tuban, East Java, is scheduled to begin operations in 2013. Tuban

Plant in East Java will increase the production to 10 million tons in 2013.

2009

5,305,696

3. Financial data & stock

Holcim Indonesia Sales Volume

2010 2011

5,564,459 7,354,846

2012F

7,545,451

Year

Last Price

Share Out.

Market Cap.

Holcim Indonesia Financial Statement

2012F 2011 2010 2009 2008

2,425 2,250 1,550 630

7.7 B 7.7 B 7.7 B 7.7 B

18,582.5 B 17,241.5 B 11,877.5 B 4,827.6 B

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

-

Cash

Total Asset

S.T. Borrowing

L.T. Borrowing

Total Equity

Revenue

Gross Profit

Operating Profit

Net. Profit

EBITDA

Interest Expense

EPS

PER

BVPS

PBV

ROA

ROE

EV/EBITDA

Debt/Equity

Debt/TotalCap

Debt/EBITDA

EBITDA/IntExps

13482 B

7,771 B

3,009 B

1,774 B

1,163 B

2,407 B

Balance Sheet

1127.5 B

10950.5 B

341.0 B

1175.7 B

7524.8 B

1070.4 B

10437.2 B

393.7 B

1730.4 B

6822.6 B

Income Statement

7,524.0 B

2,851.5 B

1,680.0 B

1,063.2 B

2,301.6 B

192.4 B

Ratio

5,960.6 B

2,249.4 B

1,333.3 B

828.4 B

1,472.9 B

232.8 B

139

17.45x

981.97

2.47x

9.71%

14.13%

8.24

0.2

0.17

0.66

11.96

108.11

20.81x

890.34

2.53x

7.94%

12.14%

12.42

0.31

0.24

1.44

6.33

SMCB

380.2 B

7265.4 B

169.2 B

1940.1 B

3314.9 B

5,943.9 B

2,249.7 B

1,398.2 B

895.8 B

1,991.5 B

48.1 B

116.89

13.26x

432.59

3.58x

12.33%

27.02%

6.83

0.64

0.39

1.06

41.37

852.9 B

7675.0 B

243.0 B

3518.1 B

2537.9 B

4,803.4 B

1,870.3 B

9,86.2 B

282.2 B

1,363.3 B

669.5 B

36.83

17.11x

331.2

1.90x

3.68%

11.12%

5.67

1.48

0.6

2.76

2.04

Unlisted Company:

Lafarge Cement Indonesia

Lafarge Indonesia was founded in 1983. The factory is located in Lhoknga, Banda Aceh, and 4 packing terminals in Belawan, Dumai, Batam dan Lhokseumawe.

Its brand is Semen Andalas. The distribution coverage is around Sumatera Island, especially North Sumatera.

The factory annual output is 1.6 million tons per year.

Company news: Lafarge tried to penetrate Java Island, but the government gave an incentive for Lafarge to build the factory in Langkat (Sumatera).

Semen Kupang

Semen Kupang is the only cement factory in NTT. The company founded in 14th August

1983, with the capacity 120.000 tons per year. This company is 100% government owned company.

In 2008, this company stopped the production due to financial crisis.

In 2009, the company is controlled by new management, which is PT Sarana Agra

Gemilang. In 2011, the production started again with the production capacity is 600.000 tons per year.

Semen Bosowa

The company was founded in 1999 by Muhammad Aksa Mahmud. In 2011, PT Nusantara

Infrastruktur bought 23% of the share.

Semen Bosowa is the largest unlisted cement company in Indonesia. Its target market is including Sulawesi and Kalimantan (outside Java Island).

The factories are located in Maros (South Sulawesi) and Batam (Riau Island). Total production is targeted to be 3.7 million tons per year in 2012.

Semen Bosowa will build 3 cement factories in Rembang (Central Java), Cilegon (Banten), and Dumai (Riau Island)

Semen Baturaja

Semen Baturaja is government owned cement company.

The factories are located in Baturaja, Palembang, and Panjang.

The production capacity is 1.25 million tons per year.

The target market of Semen Baturaja is South Sumatera and surrounding area.

3.

Indonesia cement industry news:

Siam Cement Thailand planned to build cement factory in Sukabumi, with total investment worth $ 300 million. In this project, Siam will cooperate with local partner,

Candra Asri Group.

China’s largest cement maker, Anhui Conch Cement, planned to begin construction of a cement plant in South Kalimantan later this year with an anticipated investment of

US$400 million. The planned plant in South Kalimantan will be able to produce 2.5 tons of cement annually.

Anhui Conch Cement is currently awaiting the completion of its land acquisition process and a license to be issued by the South Kalimantan administration so that the plant can be built in Tanjung, Tabalong.

Anhui Conch Cement was also preparing to acquire land in Manokwari, West Papua, next year for another cement plant that would require another $400 million, with capacity 2.5 million tons per year.

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