SNC 2P - PICKERING CLIMATE CHANGE STUDY ASSIGNMENT  HOW WILL IT
AFFECT YOU?
One way to get an idea of how climate change will affect you directly is to look at current climate data
and projected climate data. The Region of Durham has completed a study whereby each city within
the region was studied and projections were created. Below, the City of Pickering data has been
used to complete a climate change data analysis study.
This data is taken from the SENES Study on Durham Region’s Future Climate. The summary repot
can be found here:
http://www.durham.ca/default.asp?nr=/community/climate_change/adaptation.htm&setFooter=/includ
es/climateFooter.inc
For a full copy of the report email the Region of Durham at climatechange@durham.ca.
Your task is to complete a thorough analysis of climate will change over the two ten-year blocks of
time that span forty years with this assignment. Think about how old you will be in 2040 and where
you may be living, and how you may have to mitigate and adapt to any climate change in the future.
This assignment will cover the following main aspects of climate: temperature, precipitation, severe
weather, heat waves, occurrence of heavy rain, and days with high potential for lightning.
TEMPERATURE
This table shows the number of temperature days for the years: 2000-2009
This table shows the number of temperature days for the years: 2040-2049
Looking at the temperature data above, answer the following questions:
1. In the table showing 2000-2009(max temp), how many months have days where temperatures
are greater than 35 (>35)?
2. In the table showing 2040-2049 (max temp), how many months have days where temperatures
are greater than 35 (>35)? Which months are they?
3. What does this tell you about future summer month temperatures? How will that have a
negative/and positive impact on us in the City of Pickering? Think about impacts on human
health with higher temperatures (and which segment of the population [age] will be affected the
greatest.
4. In the table showing 2000-2009 (min temp), look at the winter months (Dec-Mar) where
temperatures are greater than 0 (>0)? Now comment on how many days per month there
are compared to the next table showing 2040-2049 (min temp) for those same months which
are greater than 0 (>0). What was the total for Dec-Mar for 2000-2009________________
and for 2040-2049 ________________
5. What does this tell you about winters in the future for Pickering? Think about how this may
affect things like the ski resorts just north of us (Lakeridge, Dagmar etc…). How might they be
impacted if the temperature is like this? On the other side of this argument, how might summer
recreational activities benefit, like golf etc.?
6. How do you feel about this?
7. What other areas of the economy or society might be affected by these changes to
temperature? (This can be positive or negative).
PRECIPITATION
This table shows the amount of precipitation for the years 2000 - 2009
This table shows the amount of precipitation for the years 2040 -2049
8. Compare the amount of snowfall (use the > = 0.2 cm row of data) in the months Dec-Mar for
2000-2009 and the 2040-2049 tables. What do you notice? Will we have more or less
snowfall? Link this answer to the temperature charts you just looked at on the previous page.
9. Is more or less snowfall a positive or negative? Think about how snow recharges streams in
the spring, saturates soil for agriculture in the summer and can prevent soil erosion by high
winds in the winter months. Are there any other ‘positives or negatives’ to having less snow in
the future?
10. Now look at high rainfall events (use the > = 25 mm row of data) in June and July for both
2000-2009 and the 2040-2049 tables. What do you notice has changed? What is the total for
both June and July for 2000-2009________________ and for 2040-2049
________________?
11. What are these high rainfall events in the summer months probably associated with?
SEVERE WEATHER
Tornado Precursors  The Energy Helicity Index (EHI) is a
EHI
combination of two indices. By itself, it is the best index available for
> 1 Supercell potential
1 – 5 Up to F2, F3 tornadoes
storm and tornado prediction since it combines both CAPE
possible
(CONVECTIVE ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL ENERGY) and
5 + Up to F4, F5 tornadoes
Helicity. The CAPE is the amount of pure instability present in a
possible
parcel of air and Helicity is the product of low level shear and inflow
directly into the storm. The significance of the EHI is given in the table to the right:
The table below shows the number of calendar days with EHI greater than 1 (> 1) for 2000-2009 and
2040-2049
12. Looking at the number of days with the potential for a
tornado to form in for 2000-2009 and 2040-2049 for
the Pickering area, what do you notice about the
change?
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
PICK.
12
12
36
11
9
18
16
19
16
7
YEAR
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
PICK.
4
12
8
19
15
35
6
20
28
20
13. In the first table 2000-2009 what was the total
number of days in the 10 year period for tornadoes?
_____________________ What about in 20402049? _______________________What is the average for the 2000-2009 period? (total
/number of years) _____________________ and for the 2040-2049 period?
__________________________.
14. Knowing there is an increase in tornadoes in the future, what does this mean for you and other
Pickering residents? How will you have to plan for such things? (think about emergency kits,
water…)
15. How might homes have to be ‘retrofitted’ or better designed/built for the future?
16. Think about how insurance companies may need to respond if there are now more severe
storms and tornadoes. How might that change your future insurance for your house?
HEAT WAVES
The table below shows heat wave days with temp greater than
30C 2000-2009 and 2040-2049.
17. Looking at the tables of number of heat wave days with
temperatures greater than 30 C for 2000-2009, which
year on record had the greatest number of days?
__________________________ Do you think this an
anomaly or a regular occurrence? What seems to be the
range for 2000-2009 for days hotter than 30 C?
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10-year
period
PICK.
2
5
7
2
1
11
3
4
2
0
37
YEAR
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
10-year
period
PICK.
9
8
7
20
9
20
3
19
20
22
138
18. Looking at the tables of number of heat wave days with temperatures greater than 30C for
2040-2049, which year(s) on record had the greatest number of days? What seems to be the
range for 2000-2009 for days hotter than 30 C?
19. What impact positive/negative will more hotter days have on society?
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN
This is defined as number of events with total precipitation greater than 50 millimetres over a 6-hour
time period while the temperature is above 1 degree C. The table below shows the occurrence of
heavy rain 2000-2009 and 2040-2049
20. Look at the tables showing the number of days of heavy
rain for both 2000-2009 and 2040-2049. What do you
notice about the number? Calculate the percentage of
increase for the difference from the two time periods.
21. How could heavy rain be a negative impact on society
and the environment?
22. How could heavy rain be viewed as a positive?
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10-year
period
PICK.
3
0
0
0
0
4
3
0
0
3
13
YEAR
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
10-year
period
PICK.
0
5
0
23
5
5
0
8
0
0
46
23. What would heavy rain do to local streams and creeks that recharge larger lakes in the area
(Lake Ontario)? Think about runoff and turbidity of the water in these streams. How might
‘cloudy/muddy’ water affect fish populations?
24. How might heavy rain effects increase the amount of surface runoff from roads and major
highways? What might this runoff carry with it, and drain into other waterways or wetlands?
Describe how this can be a negative impact on the environment.
25. What might you have to do to protect your own home from these heavy rain events? (think
about basement flooding).
DAYS WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
This is defined as the number of days with a high potential for lightning strikes. It was characterized
by looking at the vertical development of clouds because the model does not simulate lightning
occurrence. From a research approach, it was found that if the modeled cloud depth was greater than
approximately 11 kilometres, this corresponded well with observed lightning on a daily basis. The
modeled parameter used was hourly cloud depth greater than or equal to 11300 metres.
The table below shows the number of days with high potential
for lightning in the decades 2000-2009 and 2040-2049
26. Look at the tables showing the number of days of high
potential for lightning for both 2000-2009 and 2040-2049.
What do you notice about the number? Calculate the
percentage of increase for the difference from the two
time periods.
27. How could more lightning be a negative impact on
society and the environment?
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10-year
period
PICK.
15
28
42
21
36
24
27
25
40
28
286
YEAR
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
10-year
period
PICK.
29
47
50
41
64
38
56
47
47
25
444
28. How might this affect power outages across the region? Think about how Hydro One will have
to have crew ready to send to all these areas around Pickering to fix transformer stations. How
will this affect you the consumer?
29. Which year is predicted to be the worst for lightning strikes? Calculate what percentage of that
total ten year period it equates to be?
30. What was the maximum ___________ and minimum ______________ number of days with
high potential for lightning strikes in 2000-2009?
31. What was the maximum ___________ and minimum ______________ number of days with
high potential for lightning strikes in 2040-2049?