Australia’s post-2020 target for greenhouse gas
emission reduction
Submission by the University of Tasmania Student Environmental Law Society
Recommended target
We recommend that Australia commit to a target of 40% reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emissions by 2030 based on 1990 levels.
The seven recommended GHGs to be targeted are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and
nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). This is because these gases are not already controlled by the Montreal
Protocol, which was negotiated under the framework of the Vienna Convention for the Protection
of the Ozone Layer (1985).1 This same reasoning for targeting these specific gases is intended
to be adopted by the European Union and Norway. Additionally, many states are also targeting
these seven gases, such as Switzerland, the United States of America, Gabon, Russia and
Liechtenstein. This is indicated by their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).2
Why 40% by 2030 is the preferred target
This target is in line with emissions targets which have been submitted by other developed
countries. This shows that a target of a 40% reduction in GHG emission by 2030 is both realistic
and accords with international consensus. The EU has committed to a reduction of at least 40%
of GHG emissions based on 1990 levels by 2030.3 Norway has committed to the same target.4
The US has committed to a reduction of 26-28% of GHG emissions based on 2005 levels by
2025.5 US emissions in 2005 were just over 7 billion metric tonnes of GHGs, while emission in
1
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, signed 16 January 1987, 1522
UNTS 3 (entered into force 1 January 1989) Annex A.
2 INDCs (n.d) United Nations Framework on Climate Change
<http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx>.
3 Submission by Latvia and the European Commission on behalf of the European Union and its Member
States, accessed from UNFCCC ‘INDC as communicated by parties’
<http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx>.
4 Submission by Norway, accessed from above n 3.
5 Submission by the US, accessed from above n 3.
1990 were just over 6 billion. The US’s target is therefore equivalent to 30-33% of 1990 levels by
2025, which will put the US on a trajectory to reduce GHG emissions by around 40% by 2030.
Switzerland has committed to the higher target of reducing GHG emissions by 50% by 2030 based
on 1990 levels.6
A target of 40% reduction in GHG emissions based on 1990 levels by 2030 will also help to meet
the internationally agreed upon goal of preventing average temperatures from rising above 2
degrees celcius.7 The IPCC in its 5th assessment report found that in order to prevent warming
greater than 2 degrees celsius it will be necessary to prevent GHGs rising above atmospheric
levels of 450ppm.8 This will require emissions to be reduced by 40-70% based on 2010 levels by
2050.9 Australia’s 1990 GHG emissions were not significantly different from its emissions in 2010.
Assuming all countries agreed to the same reductions target, this would therefore require
Australia to reduce its GHG emissions by approximately a 40-70% based on 1990 levels.
However, given the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ agreed to by all parties
to the UNFCCC,10 developed countries are required to take on greater emissions reduction
targets as compared to developing countries. This is likely to be represented in the Paris
Agreement. As with previous international environmental treaties, including the Kyoto Protocol
and the Montreal Protocol, developing countries will most likely not be expected to commit to
emissions reductions targets of the same scale as developed countries, at least in the initial
commitment period. This means that in order for global emissions of GHGs to be reduced by 4070%, Australia will need to reduce its emissions by more than 40-70% of 1990 levels by 2050.
Reducing emissions by 40% by 2030 puts us on a path to achieving this. There are also economic
advantages to reducing emissions significantly in the near future instead of continuing with a
business-as-usual approach and then being forced to reduce emissions at a much faster rate in
the more distant future. These will be discussed below.
The climate change problem and why we want to avoid warming greater than
2 degrees
There is international consensus that we should not allow the earth’s temperature to rise more
than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. By reducing the emissions of these gases and
preventing temperature rises greater than 2 degrees, the main threats of climate change can be
mitigated. Such reductions would satisfy Article 2 of the UNFCCC, which states the objective of
the convention as achieving ‘stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.’11
6
Submission by Switzerland, accessed from above n 3.
Report of the Conference of the Parties on its seventeenth session, held in Durban from 28 November
to 11 December 2011 2/CP.17, FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1 (11 December 2011) 5.
8 Thomas F Stocker et al (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (2013, Cambridge
University Press) 12.
9 Ibid.
10 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 art 3(2).
11 Ibid art 2.
7
In Australia, 95% of energy consumption comes from fossil fuel sources, forming a major
component of CO2 emissions.12 Many greenhouse gases have long lifetimes in the atmosphere,
sometimes lasting decades or even centuries, which results in the accumulation of these gases
and increasing concentrations.13 General circulation models predict increased global warming,
and there is a correlation between this and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such
as CO2 in the atmosphere.14 Therefore, if these emissions are not reduced, the Average Global
Temperature will increase. The ‘Burning Embers Diagram,’ illustrated in the IPCC third
assessment report, shows the different levels of risk in certain aspects of society with incremental
increases in temperature (Figure 1).15
Figure 1: Burning Embers Diagram16
Australia has already experienced changes in climatic conditions, with the 2014 State of the
Climate report showing that Australia’s average temperature has risen by 0.9 degrees since
1910.17 Along with this rise in temperature, Australia has experienced an increase in rainfall in the
northwest of the country, while rainfall has been declining in the southwest since 1970 and the
southeast since 1990. Further, Australia has experienced more extreme heat events and fewer
Thomas R Karl ‘Modern Global Climate Change’ (2003) 302 Science 1719.
Ibid.
14 F A Bazzaz, ‘The Response of Natural Ecosystems to to the Rising Global CO2 Levels’ (1990) 21
Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 167.
15 Michael E Mann, ‘Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference. (2009) 10611) Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 4065.
16 Catherine Brahic, Earth May be Entering Climate Danger Zone (2009) New Scientist
<http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16729-earth-may-be-entering-climate-change-dangerzone.html#.VTm2yCGeDGc>.
17 CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorlogy (2014) ‘State of the Climate 2014’ 3
12
13
extreme cold events, with extreme fire weather increasing and the fire season becoming longer
across much of Australia since 1970.18 As well as the climatic changes on the Australian
landmass, sea levels have risen globally by 6 cm since 1990 due both to thermal expansion and
melting glaciers.19 As temperatures continue to rise into the future Australia will experience a
further decline in average rainfall across the south of the country, but an increase in extreme
rainfall events. The number of extreme fire weather days is forecast to increase. The sea level is
also forecast to rise a further 28-61cm over the next 85 years, in a low-emissions scenario (which
assumes a significant reduction in GHG emissions in the coming decades) or 52-98cm in a highemissions scenario (which assumes a continued increase in CO2 emissions as seen in the past
decade).20
Changing weather conditions will have numerous effects on the environment. Adaptability to
changing environmental conditions is an inherent property of all living things.21 However, if
environmental changes are too great the physiological, behavioural and genetic mechanisms of
adaptation will not be able to respond quick enough for populations to survive, resulting in altered
community composition and ecosystem functioning. Predicted changes in temperature, CO2
levels, water supplies and increasing frequencies of extreme weather events are expected to
exceed the physiological capabilities of many species. The extinction or relocation of species in
a given area will have ramifications throughout the ecosystem. Ecosystems are networks of
interacting species so a change in any one component will have flow on effects throughout the
ecological community.
The impacts of climate change can already be seen at iconic Australian sites such as the Great
Barrier Reef.22 Climate change is considered the most serious threat to the reef, with rising sea
temperatures causing coral bleaching and ocean acidification restricting the growth of coral. The
threat of climate change will need to be addressed if Australia is to meet its obligations under the
World Heritage Convention.23 Without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it is
predicted the Great Barrier Reef will experience temperature increases of 2-6 degrees Celsius,
which would have detrimental effects on the ecosystem.24
Changing weather patterns will also have severe economic impacts. A key effect of climate
change is reduced water supply due to decreased rainfall in the south of the country. According
18
Ibid.
Ibid 12.
20 Ibid’ 15.
21 Steffen W, Burbidge AA, Hughes L, Kitching R, Lindenmayer D, Musgrave W, Stafford Smith M and
Werner PA (2009) Australia’s biodiversity and climate change: a strategic assessments of the vulnerability
of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change. A report to the Natural Resource Management Ministerial
Council commissioned by the Australian Government. CSIRO Publishing.
22 Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority 2014, Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2014, GBRMPA,
Townsville.
23 Sydney Centre for International and Global Law Faculty of Law (2004) ‘Global Climate Change and the
Great Barrier Reef: Australia’s Obligations under the World Heritage Convention. A report to the
Environmental Defender’s Office (NSW).
24 Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority 2014, Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2014, GBRMPA,
Townsville.
19
to the Garnaut review, this is already resulting in many cities being forced develop expensive
infrastructure to protect water supply to urban areas.25 Reduced water supply is also likely to have
significant impacts on the agricultural sector, particularly in the Murray Darling Basin where,
without strong mitigation policies, production is forecast to fall by half by 2050. The effects of
climate change on temperature, pest and disease distribution, and the frequency of extreme
weather events will also continue to decrease the productivity of agriculture industries.26 Australia
will not be able to maintain sustainable and productive agriculture industries unless greenhouse
gas emissions are reduced to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. If these impacts
are not addressed Australia’s food security will be compromised, resulting in a declining food
export profits and a increased reliance on food imports.27
Loss of coastal infrastructure and increased extreme weather events such as fires will also place
a great strain on the insurance industry. Climate-change related risks are likely to affect all
insurance types, including property, health, life and liability insurance.28 The uncertainties
associated with climate change pose a significant threat to the insurance industry.29 Should the
industry not be able to adapt to this threat, this could lead to a serious financial crisis both within
Australia and globally.30
Australia’s legal obligations
As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (‘UNFCCC’)
Australia has agreed to the objective of achieving ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.’ Article 3(1) of the UNFCCC requires that developed countries should take the
lead in reducing GHG emissions, encapsulating the principle of common but differentiated
responsibilities. As a developed country, which has both contributed significantly to historic GHG
emissions and has the economic means to research, produce and implement GHG emissionreducing technologies and policies Australia is therefore under an obligation to be one of the
leaders in reducing GHG emissions. As outlined above, other developed countries are adopting
targets either the same or similar to our recommended target, being 40% below 1990 levels by
2030. In order to fulfil its obligations and be a leader in cutting GHG emissions Australia should
therefore adopt a target of this magnitude.
Article 3(3) of the UNFCCC encapsulated the precautionary principle by providing that: ‘The
Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of
climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible
damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such
25
Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008, Cambridge University Press) 125.
PMSEIC (2010) Australia and Food Security in a Changing World, The Prime Minister’s Science,
Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra, Australia.
27 Ibid.
28 Sean B Hecht, ‘Climate Change and the Transformation of Risk: Insurance Matters’ 2008 55(6) UCLA
Law Review 1559, 1574.
29 Ibid 1561.
30 Ibid.
26
measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be
cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.’ Australia therefore has
a responsibility to implement a range of policies to prevent serious and irreversible damage to the
Earth as a result of climate change and the lack of full scientific certainty about climate change
itself or the potential effectiveness of certain policies or technologies cannot be a reason not to
take precautionary action.
The likely impact of this target on
Australia
By reducing Australia’s GHG emissions by 40% by 2030, many of the negative impacts stated
above could be limited. By reducing GHG emissions, global warming should not increase beyond
2 degrees. There is international scientific consensus that this will limit further consequences of
climate change, and will limit the changes that do still occur, so that it is still at a safe level for the
environment.
Pursuing an emissions reduction target of 40% by 2030 based on 1990 levels may lead to decline
in certain high emissions industries and job-losses in the short run. However, in the long term the
economic benefits of adopting a strong emissions reduction target supported by effective policies
will outweigh the costs. Limitation of GHG emissions to 450 ppm, as recommended by the IPCC
in order to limit warming to 2 degrees, is predicted to lead to a 6% reduction in agricultural
production in the Murray-Darling basin, compared to a 92% reduction in production in a nomitigation scenario.31 Similarly, the price of supplying water in urban areas is predicted to rise 4%
if GHG emissions are limited to 450 ppm, as compared to 34% in a no-mitigation scenario, and
buildings in coastal areas will also see significantly less risk under a 450 ppm scenario than with
no mitigation.32
The Australian economy’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels poses risks given the move amongst
major financial institutions away from investing in carbon-intensive assets, which could see a fall
in investments in Australian fossil fuels.33 Australia also cannot continue to rely on revenue from
exports of fossil fuels as major economies around the world, such as the US, Europe and China
(which is the world’s largest consumer and importer of coal34) are seeing declining demand for
coal.35
Australia has a topography uniquely suited to the use of renewable energy. Australia is the
windiest and sunniest continent, with an estimated potential for renewable energy generation
31
Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008, Cambridge University Press) 127.
Ibid 128.
33 Committee for Economic Development of Australia, The Economics of Climate Change (2014) 23-24.
34 Mineral Council of Australia, ‘The Asian Century is an Age of Coal’
<http://www.minerals.org.au/resources/coal/the_asian_century_is_an_age_of_coal>.
35 Committee for Economic Development of Australia, The Economics of Climate Change (2014) 26.
32
which is 500 times greater than its current energy generation capacity.36 Australia could benefit
greatly from becoming a key developer of renewable energy technology while the renewable
market is still relatively young. With robust intellectual property laws and wide acceptance of the
TRIPS agreement worldwide Australia could benefit significantly from developing and marketing
renewable energy technology, particularly with the assistance of short-term incentive packages
such as the Renewable Energy Target legislation.37 With the development of new battery storage
technology, Australia may even be able to become a net exporter of renewable-energy-generated
power.38
Policy recommendations
Climate change is the result of market failure, in that the cost of GHG emissions is not adequately
reflected in the market price for goods and services. A carbon pricing mechanism helps to correct
this failure by placing a price on the emission of GHGs. Numerous countries around the world
now have emissions trading schemes, including most of Europe, a number of provinces in China,
Khazakstan, Switzerland and New Zealand.39 A carbon pricing mechanism, or emissions trading
scheme, is one of the most effective and economically efficient ways of reducing GHG emissions.
Australia had the framework for moving to an emissions trading scheme in place and we
recommend that this framework be re-implemented as an effective tool to assist with Australia
reaching the target of 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.
As outlined above, Australia’s natural resources give it a great capacity for renewable energy
generation. Australia not only has gate energy using wind and solar technology, but also wave
and geothermal technology as well as generating power from biomass from agricultural residue
and plantations.40 A recent report by the World Wildlife Fund which draws on research by
ClimateWorks and the Australian National University suggests that Australia could move to a
carbon neutral economy by 2050 through transitioning to a model of energy generation wholly or
mostly through renewable sources without great cost to the economy. Further, the report suggests
there could be economic benefits to pursuing a zero-carbon electricity system.41 It is therefore
recommended that initiatives such as the Renewable Energy Target be expanded to promote
greater development and adoption of renewable energy technology, which would both aid and
complement the implementation of an emissions trading scheme.
36
F Jotzo and L Kemp, Australia can cut emissions deeply and the cost is low (2015,Centre for Climate
Economics and Policy for WWF Australia) 6.
37 Department of the Environment, The Renewable Energy Target Scheme
<http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy-target-scheme>.
38 Chip Register, The Battery Revolution: A Technology Disruption, Economics and
Grid Level Application Discussion with Eos Energy Storage (1 March 2015) Forbes
<http://www.forbes.com/sites/chipregister1/2015/01/13/the-battery-revolution-atechnology-disruption-economics-and-grid-level-application-discussion-with-eosenergy-storage/>
39 Committee for Economic Development of Australia, The Economics of Climate Change (2014) 19.
40 Jotzo, F. and Kemp, L. (2015), Australia can cut emissions deeply and the cost is low, Centre for
Climate Economics and Policy for WWF-Australia 8.
41 Ibid 3.