Preliminary Agenda for Workshop on Update of Pacific Northwest Portion of the U.S. National Seismic
Hazard Maps (NSHMs)
March 21-22, University of Washington, Seattle
Room 316, South Campus Center
March 21: Earthquake Source Inputs to Maps
8:30 A.M. Welcome, brief review of current methodology for NSHMs.
8:45-11: Discussion of recurrence rates and magnitudes of great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ)
Evidence from turbidites (submarine deposits): Chris Goldfinger
Discussion of turbidite evidence: Brian Atwater
Evidence from onshore data: Harvey Kelsey or Alan Nelson
Approach used for Canadian national seismic hazard maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
Effects of trial CSZ recurrence models on the hazard maps and review of November 2010 workshop on CSZ recurrence from turbidite evidence: Art Frankel
11-noon: Discussion of models for the eastern edge of rupture zones of great Cascadia earthquakes
Evidence from GPS and uplift data: Robert McCaffrey, David Schmidt
Review of other approaches (speakers to be announced)
Implications of Episodic Tremor and Slip to location of eastern edge (speaker to be announced)
Approach used for Canadian maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
Review of December 2011 workshop on eastern edge of CSZ and evaluation of trial models: Art
Frankel noon-1 P.M. lunch
1-1:30: Continuation of discussion on Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
1:30-2: Discussion of new information on deep, in-slab earthquakes. How to characterize hazard from deep earthquakes south of Puget Sound area?
2-5: Discussion of new findings on crustal faults: Brian Sherrod
Crustal deformation determined from GPS: Robert McCaffrey

New model linking eastern WA and western WA faults: Richard Blakely
Faults in western Washington: Harvey Kelsey
Faults in eastern Washington: Brian Sherrod
Faults in Oregon: Ian Madin
Discussion of Quaternary Fault Database: Kathy Haller
Approach used for Canadian maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
March 22: Ground-Motion Prediction Equations and Engineering Issues for the Pacific Northwest
9 A.M.-noon Discussion of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE's; also known as attenuation relations) used in the national seismic hazard maps (subduction-zone interface events, deep in-slab events, and crustal events)
Description of subduction-zone GMPE's used in BC Hydro hazard study: Norm Abrahamson
Latest results on subduction- zone GMPE's: Gail Atkinson
Effects of different subduction-zone GMPE's on seismic hazard maps: Mark Petersen and Morgan
Moschetti
Plans for NGA (Next Generation Attenuation relations) for subduction-zone GMPE's: Yousef Bozorgnia
What have we learned about ground shaking of great subduction-zone earthquakes from the recordings of the Tohoku, Japan and Maule, Chile earthquakes? Art Frankel and others noon- 1 PM. lunch
1-3: Discussion of engineering needs and concerns in the Pacific Northwest. Topics: Long-period ground motions (1-10 sec period), urban seismic hazard mapping, effect of duration of shaking. We will be inviting local engineers to speak.
Design map procedures and USGS design-map products: Nicolas Luco
3 PM: adjourn