Risk Management

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Risk Management
What is risk?
• You have some expected outcome
– Of some event in the future
• Risk is the deviation of the actual future
outcome from the expected outcome
• Other definitions:
– Hazard: something negative that can happen
in the future
– Risk is the probability of the hazard
Why risk analysis?
• What does knowing the risk of some hazard
buy you?
– We know we can only care about future activities
– We know (or hope) that our risk analysis provides
some actionable outcomes
– What are we really trying to decide?
• Is the following statement be useful?
– The estimated damage by hazard X would be 2
million dollars
– The risk of hazard X is 1%
Risk Examples
• Let’s say you know the risk of permanent
injury/death of a <insert you own “very fun
activity” here> is 1/1000 instances.
– Would you perform the activity? Why? Why not?
– This activity was “optional”. What about:
• Let’s say you have a disease and there is a
treatment that works 25% of the time, does
nothing 50% of the time, and results in
immediate death 25% of the time
– Would you perform this activity? Why? Why not?
– The consequence of not performing this activity is
death within five years. You must do it now, you
can’t do it five years from now.
Why identify risks?
• Decide if it is “worth” doing something
– What is to be gained vs what could be lost
• Avoid risks when possible
• Control risks when necessary
• Like metrics, the outcome of risk analysis
should be something actionable
– Focus on future events
Software Risks
• Project risks
– Schedule slips
– Cost increases
• Technical risks
– The problem is harder to solve than you thought it
would be
– Threaten quality and timeliness
• Business risks
– Market risk, strategic risk, sales risk,
management risk, budget risks
Again, why analyze risk? Four
treatments exist:
• Do nothing
– i.e. if you don’t try, you can never fail
• Risk sharing
– spending a little now to reduce impact later
• Risk retention
– the real “do nothing” – just accept the risk
• Risk reduction
– reduce the probability or impact
Risk Management Paradigm
control
track
RISK
plan
analyze
identify
Step 1: identification
• Generic risks every project faces
– Lots of checklists for these
– over time, over budget, etc.
• Product-specific risks
– The server on a website goes down
– The touch-screen on this self-checkout is slow
– etc
Step 2: Analysis
• Estimate potential likelihood
– 100% of a risk means it is a constraint
• Estimate potential impact
– Low to High
– A monetary amount
– Consider the nature, scope, and timing; examples?
• Determine the risk exposure
– Expose = probability x impact
• Sort/prioritize risks
– Decide which ones you will deal with
Risk Exposure Example
• Risk identification. Only 70 percent of the software
components scheduled for reuse will, in fact, be integrated
into the application. The remaining functionality will have
to be custom developed.
• Risk probability. 80% (likely).
• Risk impact. 60 reusable software components were
planned. If only 70 percent can be used, 18 components
would have to be developed from scratch (in addition to
other custom software that has been scheduled for
development). Since the average component is 100 LOC
and local data indicate that the software engineering cost
for each LOC is $14.00, the overall cost (impact) to develop
the components would be 18 x 100 x 14 = $25,200.
• Risk exposure. RE = 0.80 x 25,200 ~ $20,200.
Step 3: Risk planning
• Risk Mitigation
– How to avoid the risk
• Risk Monitoring
– What factors indicate the risk “is happening”
• Risk Management
– What are our contingency plans?
Quiz review
•
•
•
•
•
What is risk? (formal definition)
Give two examples of project risks
Give two examples of technical risks
Give two examples of business risks
Explain the four treatments for risk:
–
–
–
–
do nothing
risk sharing
risk reduction
risk retention
• How do you calculate risk exposure?
In-class Exercise
• Calculate the risk of failing your class because
you slept through the final
– apply the four risk treatments to this risk
• Identify ten risks for your term projects
– Calculate the risk exposure for each risk
– Decide whether to, and how to, handle each of
the risks you identified using one or more of the
four risk treatments we dicussed
• Due next class
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