Preliminary Agenda for Workshop on Update of Pacific Northwest Portion of the U.S. National Seismic
Hazard Maps (NSHMs)
March 21-22, University of Washington, Seattle
Room 316, South Campus Center
March 21: Earthquake Source Inputs to Maps
8:30 A.M. Welcome, brief review of current methodology for NSHMs.
8:45-11: Discussion of recurrence rates and magnitudes of great earthquakes on the Cascadia
subduction zone (CSZ)
Evidence from turbidites (submarine deposits): Chris Goldfinger
Discussion of turbidite evidence: Brian Atwater
Evidence from onshore data: Harvey Kelsey or Alan Nelson
Discussion of possible temporal clustering of CSZ earthquakes: Ivan Wong, Roland LaForge
Approach used for Canadian national seismic hazard maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
Effects of trial CSZ recurrence models on the hazard maps and review of November 2010 workshop
on CSZ recurrence from turbidite evidence: Art Frankel
11-noon: Discussion of models for the eastern edge of rupture zones of great Cascadia earthquakes
Review of various approaches: Roy Hyndman
Evidence from GPS and uplift data: Robert McCaffrey, David Schmidt
Implications of Episodic Tremor and Slip to location of eastern edge: Heidi Houston
Approach used for Canadian maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
Review of December 2011 workshop on eastern edge of CSZ and evaluation of trial models: Art
Frankel
noon-1 P.M. lunch
1-1:30: Continuation of discussion on Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes
1:30-2: Discussion of new information on deep, in-slab earthquakes. How to characterize hazard from
deep earthquakes south of Puget Sound area?
2-5: Discussion of new findings on crustal faults: Brian Sherrod
Crustal deformation determined from GPS: Robert McCaffrey,
Comparison of observed and predicted seismicity rates from crustal deformation: Roy Hyndman
New model linking eastern WA and western WA faults: Richard Blakely
Faults in western Washington: Harvey Kelsey
Faults in eastern Washington: Brian Sherrod
Faults in Oregon: Ian Madin
Discussion of Quaternary Fault Database: Kathy Haller
Approach used for Canadian maps: John Adams or Garry Rogers
March 22: Ground-Motion Prediction Equations and Engineering Issues for the Pacific Northwest
9 A.M.-noon Discussion of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE's; also known as attenuation
relations) used in the national seismic hazard maps (subduction-zone interface events, deep in-slab
events, and crustal events)
Description of subduction-zone GMPE's used in BC Hydro hazard study: Norm Abrahamson
Latest results on subduction- zone GMPE's: Gail Atkinson
Effects of different subduction-zone GMPE's on seismic hazard maps: Mark Petersen and Morgan
Moschetti
Plans for NGA (Next Generation Attenuation relations) for subduction-zone GMPE's: Yousef Bozorgnia
What have we learned about ground shaking of great subduction-zone earthquakes from the
recordings of the Tohoku, Japan and Maule, Chile earthquakes? Art Frankel and others
Ground shaking from the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake; comparison with NGA for crustal
earthquakes: Dave Boore
noon- 1 PM. lunch
1-3: Discussion of engineering needs and concerns in the Pacific Northwest. How can hazard assessment
products be improved?
Evaluation of effects of long-duration shaking from CSZ great earthquakes on building
performance: Abbie Liel
Long-period ground motions (1-10 sec period): C.B. Crouse
Earthquake engineering issues for the Pacific Northwest: John Hooper
Description of new downhole seismic array in Seattle to study liquefaction: Paul Bodin
Design map procedures and USGS design-map products: Nicolas Luco
3 PM: adjourn