III. POPULATION GROWTH, STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION
A. TRENDS AND POLICIES REGARDING
and repair the environment, and lay the foundation for
future sustainable development.
POPULATION GROWTH
The Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (United Nations, 1995, chap. I, resolution 1, annex) lays out a
comprehensive approach to issues of population and
development, identifying a range of social as well as
demographic goals to be achieved over a 20-year period. The Programme of Action contains no specific
goals for population growth, but it does reflect the
view that early stabilization of the world population
would make an important contribution to the achievement of sustainable development.
In the more developed regions, the large majority of
Governments express satisfaction with their rates of
population growth. However, there are signs of increasing concern about low rates of population growth,
as fertility has continued to decline to extremely low
levels.
In 1998, 41 per cent of the countries of the world,
and 54 per cent of developing countries, considered
their rate of population growth to be too high. That
proportion of countries of the world had increased
steadily, from 28 per cent in 1974 to 44 per cent in
1993 (table III.1) before dropping to 41 per cent in
1998. This small decrease corresponds to the changing demographic situation in many countries where
rates of population growth have declined. Over the
decade, from 1985-1990 to 1995-2000, the average
rate of population growth globally has declined from
1.7 to 1.3 per cent per year, and in the less developed
regions from 2.0 to 1.6 per cent per year. In the less
developed regions, the level of fertility, as measured
by the total fertility rate, has dropped over the same
period from 3.8 births per woman to 3.0.
Recognizing that the ultimate goal is the improvement of the quality of life of present and future generations, the objective with respect to population growth
is to facilitate the demographic transition as soon as
possible in countries where there is an imbalance between demographic rates and social, economic and
environmental goals, while fully respecting human
rights. This process will contribute to the stabilization
of the world population and, together with changes in
unsustainable patterns of production and consumption,
to sustainable development and economic growth.
Continued high rates of population growth remain an
issue of policy concern for many Governments, especially in the less developed regions. Governments’
concerns include the difficulties they face in providing
education, health and other basic social services to
their growing populations. Rapid population growth at
the national level is also seen as exacerbating problems
associated with population distribution, especially the
rapid growth of cities. Growth of rural as well as urban populations has in many places put stress on the
local environment. The number of people living in
poverty is still on the increase and, despite favourable
trends in food production in developing regions as a
whole, in some countries, particularly in Africa, population growth has been outpacing increases in food
production during the 1980s and 1990s, resulting in a
per capita decrease in the amount of food available for
human consumption. The Programme of Action reflects a consensus that slower population growth can
buy more time for societies to attack poverty, protect
The International Conference on Population and
Development in 1994 gave new impetus to population
and development activities. In the preparation for the
Conference and thereafter, new national population
policies and programmes were adopted in many countries, including Viet Nam (1993); Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Turkey (1994); the Lao Peoples Democratic
Republic (1995); the Republic of Korea (1996); and El
Salvador, Nicaragua and Sri Lanka (1997). Some
Governments have identified quantitative goals in their
development plans to reduce the population growth
rate. In general, however, national programmes are
shifting their emphasis from quantitative objectives to
qualitative issues.
In most developing countries, surveys show that the
average desired family size is still above the level consistent with long-term replacement of the popula-
25
TABLE III.1. GOVERNMENTS VIEWS OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE, 1974-1998
(Percentage of countries)
Total
Number of
countries
25
19
11
14
100
100
100
100
156
168
190
180
69
86
69
31
13
29
100
100
100
39
56
45
38
28
36
15
10
10
100
100
100
129
134
135
Year
Too high
Satisfactory
World
1974
1983
1993
1998
28
36
44
41
47
45
45
44
More developed regions
1983
1993
1998
0
2
2
Less developing regions
1983
1993
1998
47
61
54
Too low
Source: The Population Policy Data Bank maintained by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat.
NOTE: Categories may not sum to the total, due to rounding.
tion. However, the same surveys show that declines in
desired family size are already under way in all developing regions and that currently large percentages of
women are having more children than they indicate
they want to have. Broader development efforts, particularly those that reduce poverty, improve women’s
status and increase the education and health of the
population, will create conditions that will facilitate
the demographic transition by reducing mortality risks
and lessening the number of children families desire to
have.
per cent between surveys conducted in the late 1970s
or early 1980s and surveys conducted in the early
1990s. Although the average fertility level had declined by over one child per woman, the average level
of unwanted fertility had actually increased. Typically,
it is not until overall fertility levels have fallen substantially that the level of unwanted fertility also begins to decline.
While the majority of countries in the less developed
regions are concerned over their high population
growth rates, an increasing number of countries in the
more developed regions are expressing concern about
their low rates of population growth. The proportion
of Governments perceiving their growth rate to be too
low, which had fallen from 25 per cent in 1974 to
11 per cent in 1993, increased to 14 per cent in 1998.
This recent increase is confined to countries in the
more developed regions (whose proportion of Governments perceiving their growth rate to be too low
increased from 13 per cent in 1993 to 29 per cent in
1998) and is related to the very low fertility rates in
some of those countries. For the period 1995-2000,
the total fertility rate is below the level of 2.1 births
per womanapproximately the level needed for the
population to replace itself over the long termin over
90 per cent of countries in the more developed regions;
it is below 1.5 births per woman in about half of the
developed countries. The greatest shift in views with
regard to the population growth rate between 1993 and
At the same time, even without further declines in
the number of children desired, there is at present a
substantial potential for reducing fertility and hence
population growth rates by helping couples and individuals avoid unwanted pregnancies. While there has
been notable progress in making family planning information and services available, surveys continue to
show a high level of unmet need for family planning in
developing countries in all regions. Furthermore, levels of unwanted fertility have tended to rise even as
fertility levels have begun decreasing in developing
countries, as declines in the number of children desired have outpaced people’s ability to regulate their
fertility. For example, a recent study of 20 developing
countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the
Caribbean (Bongaarts, 1997; United Nations, 1998c)
found that the average percentage of married women
who wanted no more children had risen from 40 to 52
26
“such measures can have modest effects in raising fertility levels, but to provide economically-meaningful
financial incentive to families in high-wage countries
would require very substantial public expenditures”
(Teitelbaum, 1997, pp. 130-131). Of course such steps
may be, and frequently are, adopted by Governments
as elements of policies to support family well-being,
even when there is no wish to influence fertility levels.
1998 occurred among countries of the former Union of
Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and in Eastern Europe. Many of the countries in the latter group considered their population growth to be satisfactory in 1993
but shifted to a view of considering it to be too low. In
those cases, there is concern about stagnant or increasing mortality as well as about low levels of fertility.
Many of these Governments have adopted policies to
overcome the demographic slowdown through
measures to increase fertility, improve health services,
reduce infant and maternal mortality, and reduce the
mortality of adults, especially males.
In summary, rapid population growth remains a concern for a majority of Governments in developing
countries, even though there have been significant recent declines in rates of population growth. The main
“proximate” cause of the growth-rate declines is the
increased use of effective methods of family planning,
which has enabled couples and individuals to have
better control over the timing as well as the number of
births. Despite the progress already made in extending
family planning and other reproductive health services,
this revolution in reproductive choice is unfinished and
in some countries has barely begun. Unwanted and
mistimed births are a common occurrence. Desired
family size is also declining in all developing regions.
Continued and increased efforts to meet this growing
need for family planning services will directly benefit
couples and individuals and will also help “buy time”
for the achievement of broader development goals.
Fertility prospects in low-fertility countries were
discussed at an expert group meeting convened by the
Population Division of the United Nations Secretariat
in November 1997. While the general expectation is
that fertility will remain low in the more developed
countries, there are differing views regarding how low
and, more specifically, regarding whether fertility is
likely to remain substantially below the replacement
level for an extended period. Many population specialists believe that the very low levels of fertility seen
in most developed countries during the 1990s are likely to rise again, as births that were delayedby rising
ages at first marriage and a postponement of births to
higher parental agestake place in later years. Surveys
indicate that people in many developed countries
would like about two children, on average. This average, if achieved, would produce fertility levels near
those consistent with population replacement in the
long term. However, it is also clear that many factorsincluding instability of marital unions, unfavourable economic circumstances and, particularly at higher ages, infecunditycan cause couples and
individuals to have fewer children than they would
have desired under ideal conditions. In some countries, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe, it is
already clear that age cohorts currently nearing the end
of childbearing will achieve fewer than two children
on average. Thus, the long-term course of fertility in
the late stages of the demographic transition remains
unclear.
For Governments concerned about low population
growth, there are no well-tested policy recipes to follow. The coming years may therefore see increased
discussion of policy alternatives, and Governments
will benefit from exchanging ideas and experiences,
and from continued efforts to improve understanding
of the forces underlying their changing demographic
circumstances.
B. POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
The objectives of the Programme of Action in regard
to population age structure are directed at major
groups at opposite ends of the age spectrum, namely
children, adolescents and youth on the one hand, and
elderly persons on the other. The Programme of Action seeks to promote the health, well-being and potential of all children, adolescents and youth in accordance with the commitments made at the World Summit
of Children and set forth in the Convention on the
Rights of the Child, contained in General Assembly
resolution 44/25, annex. The Programme of Action
urges that educational programmes be guaranteed at all
Historical experience provides no clear guidance for
Governments seeking a balance among their demographic development, social development and economic development in the late stages of the demographic
transition. Reviews of past attempts by Governments
to encourage higher fertility through measures such as
family allowances, tax incentives, preferences for
housing and support for childcare have concluded that
27
levels, especially for girls. Beneficial effects will include reducing the number of early marriages and the
incidence of high-risk childbearing and associated
mortality and morbidity. An additional objective calls
for the expansion of employment opportunities for
young people. As concerns older persons, the Programme of Action’s objectives are to improve the selfreliance of elderly people, to develop health-care systems and social security schemes, paying special attention to women, and to enhance the ability of families
to take care of elderly people within the family.
The rising trend in school enrolment at all educational levels and declining trend in illiteracy are benefiting both males and females. However, improvements in sub-Saharan Africa and the least developed
countries, where school enrolment ratios and literacy
levels are much lower than in other countries, have
been modest. Thirty-two countries still have enrolment ratios of less than 50 per 100 school-age children
for primary and secondary school combined. In many
countries, education continues to be characterized by
high drop-out rates, very high pupil-teacher ratios and
inadequately equipped school facilities. In most countries, boys have higher enrolment rates than girls, and
the differences are often substantial, particularly in
countries where levels of enrolment are low overall. In
half of the developing countries, the enrolment ratio
for boys exceeds that for girls by five points or more.
However, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the
gender gap in school enrolment is narrower than in the
other less developed regions. In a substantial fraction
of the countries of that region enrolment ratios for females are higher than for males.
Owing to declining mortality levels and the persistence of high levels of fertility, a significant number of
developing countries continue to have large proportions of children and young people in their populations
(figure III.1). Children under age 15 currently make
up 33 per cent of the population of the less developed
regions and 43 per cent of the population of the least
developed countries. It is projected that these figures
will have declined to 20 per cent and 24 per cent respectively by 2050. Rapid growth in the number of
young people and adolescents boosts demand for
health-care services, education and employment, representing major challenges and responsibilities for society.
To achieve the goals of the Programme of Action for
2005 and 2015 with regard to children and adolescents, as well as those of the World Summit for Children for 2000, new directions may need to be pursued.
Examples may include fine-tuning national programmes, reformulating goals and strategies, according
special attention to capacity-building, prioritizing goals
at national, subnational and community levels, and
adapting to local situations to reflect, for instance, the
presence of serious epidemic diseases, such as human
immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency
syndrome (HIV/AIDS), malaria, tuberculosis or other
acute diseases.
The world population of older persons is considerably smaller than the child population, but the older
population is growing at a much faster pace. The
number of persons aged 60 years or over is 580 million
in 1998 and it is projected that the number will have
grown to nearly 2 billion by 2050, at which time it will
be larger than the population of children. Many societies, especially in more developed regions, have already attained older population age structures than any
ever seen in the past. While once limited to developed
counties, concern for the consequences of ageing has
spread to the many developing countries which have
experienced rapid fertility declines. Population ageing
will have wide-ranging economic and social consequences for economic growth, savings and investment,
labour supply and employment, pension schemes,
health and long-term care, intergenerational transfers,
taxation, family composition and living arrangements.
For the older population, key issues concern their socio-economic status, productive ageing and quality of
life.
With respect to the population of older persons, developed countries generally have a range of policies
and programmes to meet the needs of the elderly,
while developing countries are less far along. Healthcare services specifically designed to deal with the
needs of older persons are available in developed
countries, but few developing countries have such services. Among developed countries, there has been an
evident shift away from institutionalization of older
28
Figure III.1. Population pyramids: age and sex distribution, 1998 and 2050
World
1998
10 0+
95 -9 9
90 -9 4
85 -8 9
80 -8 4
75 -7 9
70 -7 4
65 -6 9
60 -6 4
55 -5 9
50 -5 4
45 -4 9
40 -4 4
35 -3 9
30 -3 4
25 -2 9
20 -2 4
15 -1 9
10 -1 4
5- 9
0- 4
2050
Females
Males
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
4
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
1998
2
0
2
4
6
8
6
8
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
2050
More developed regions
10 0+
95 -9 9
90 -9 4
85 -8 9
80 -8 4
75 -7 9
70 -7 4
65 -6 9
60 -6 4
55 -5 9
50 -5 4
45 -4 9
40 -4 4
35 -3 9
30 -3 4
25 -2 9
20 -2 4
15 -1 9
10 -1 4
5- 9
0- 4
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
Less developed regions
1998
2050
10 0+
95 -9 9
90 -9 4
85 -8 9
80 -8 4
75 -7 9
70 -7 4
65 -6 9
60 -6 4
55 -5 9
50 -5 4
45 -4 9
40 -4 4
35 -3 9
30 -3 4
25 -2 9
20 -2 4
15 -1 9
10 -1 4
5- 9
0- 4
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
8
6
4
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
1998
6
4
2
0
2
4
0
2
4
6
8
2050
Least developed countries
10 0+
95 -9 9
90 -9 4
85 -8 9
80 -8 4
75 -7 9
70 -7 4
65 -6 9
60 -6 4
55 -5 9
50 -5 4
45 -4 9
40 -4 4
35 -3 9
30 -3 4
25 -2 9
20 -2 4
15 -1 9
10 -1 4
5- 9
0- 4
8
2
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
6
8
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
Pe rce nta ge of p op ulation
Source: World Population Prospec ts: The 1998 R evision, vol. II, The Sex and A ge D istribution
of the World P opulations (U nited N ations publication, Sa les No. E .99.XIII.8).
29
8
persons in favour of home-care services. While programmes to support the integration of older persons
into their families are gaining momentum in developed
countries, they are still not common in developing
countries, even though in many developing countries
scant provision exists for social support outside the
family. The rapid growth of older populations has not
been matched by a commensurate increase in social
support for the elderly in developing countries. Working women are particularly disadvantaged, as they often have the triple responsibility of labour-market activities, child-rearing and caregiving to ageing parents.
ical system will be necessary, as well as the establishment and/or strengthening of geriatric training for
medical personnel. For developed countries, given
below-replacement fertility and future contractions in
the working age population, the advisability of
measures that encourage early retirement is highly
questionable. A more appropriate policy in these circumstances might be to raise mandatory retirement
ages and eliminate incentives to early retirement. A
number of Governments are already taking steps in
this direction.
Although nearly all countries report the availability
of pension schemes, in developing countries few of
them have universal coverage. In countries with limited schemes, pension coverage is principally available
to workers in the private organized sector and to government workers. In many of these countries, pension
schemes are being redesigned to extend coverage to
the large informal sector. Faced with varying degrees
of insolvency, at least 19 countries in more and less
developed regions have bolstered national pension
schemes by raising the standard retirement age. There
has been a growing recognition that older persons can
be assisted in leading a productive life by enlarging
their income-generation potential and by employment
training and placement, and such assistance has become a priority at the highest levels of government. At
the Denver Summit of the eight major industrialized
countries in June 1997, the desire of many older persons to continue working or to be socially productive
in later years was acknowledged. Among the proposed
measures were removing disincentives to labour force
participation, lowering barriers to flexible and parttime employment, promoting lifelong learning and
voluntarism, and supporting family caregiving.
C. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, URBANIZATION
AND INTERNAL MIGRATION
The objectives identified in the Programme of Action are: (a) to enhance the management of urban agglomerations through more participatory and resourceconscious planning and management, review and revise the policies and mechanisms that contribute to the
excessive concentration in large cities, and improve
the security and quality of life of both rural and urban
low-income residents; (b) to foster a more balanced
spatial distribution of the population by promoting, in
an integrated manner, the equitable and ecologically
sustainable development of major sending and receiving areas, with particular emphasis on the promotion
of economic, social and gender equity based on the
respect for human rights, especially the right to development; and (c) to reduce the role of the various
“push” factors as they relate to migration flows.
One of the major trends at the end of the twentieth
century is the growth of urban agglomerations. In
mid-1998, 47 per cent of the world population lived
in urban areas, which are growing three times faster than their rural counterparts. As a result, just after
2000, and for the first time in history, the number of
urban-dwellers will outnumber the rural population.
In regard to population ageing and the elderly, the
challenge for the future is how best to allocate limited
resources among public sectors. Accordingly, planning may have to reflect greater insight and sensitivity
with respect to expected demographic changes. For
developing countries, there is a need to move towards
broad-based formal systems of income maintenance
without accelerating the decline in informal systems.
To achieve these dual objectives, informal support
systems may have to be bolstered by offering assistance to family caregivers. Actions will also be required on the medical front. Because medical care in
many developing countries has not been geared to the
needs of older persons, some reorientation of the med-
Even if migration is often a rational effort by individuals to seek better opportunities in life, it is also
fuelled by “push” factors. These factors, such as inequitable allocation of development resources, adoption
of inappropriate technologies and lack of access to
available land, can be influenced by government policies.
30
Many Governments have expressed concern that
high rates of rural-urban migration can hamper a city’s
ability to provide all its citizens with clean water,
power and waste management. As Secretary-General
Boutros Boutros-Ghali said at the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) held in Istanbul in 1996: “The mass exodus to cities has led to
sharpened urban poverty, especially among women
and dependent children, scarcity of housing and basic
services, unemployment and underemployment, ethnic
tensions and violence, substance abuse, crime and social disintegration. The emergence of giant megacities
has brought land degradation, traffic congestion, and
air, water and soil pollution” (United Nations, 1996,
Introduction, fourth paragraph).
for many years been shrinking. Africa is the only major area where the number of rural-dwellers is expected to continue to increase within the next three
decades, by 7.25 million persons annually.
In spite of the declining rate of urban population
growth, the average annual increment of the world’s
urban population is steadily becoming larger. While
the annual increment during the period 1970-1998 was
50 million inhabitants, it is projected to increase to 74
million between 1998 and 2030. Ninety-five per cent
of the 74 million urban people added annually are in
the less developed regions.
The giant urban agglomerations of the world, a recent phenomenon, are becoming both larger and more
numerous. There were 18 cities with at least 10 million inhabitants in 1998, and their number is expected
to rise to 26 by 2015. In 2015, only 4 of the 26 megacities will be located in more developed regions.
While today 47 per cent of the world’s population
lives in urban areas, 54 per cent will do so by 2015,
and 61 per cent in 2030. In 1998, in the less developed regions, nearly two of every five persons lived in
cities, whereas about three of every four persons lived
in cities in the more developed regions. The gap is
expected to narrow in the future, as rapid urbanization
continues in the less developed regions. In 2015, 80
per cent of people in the more developed regions, 49
per cent in the less developed regions and 35 per cent
in the least developed regions will live in urban areas
(see figure III.2).
Rural-urban migration is often viewed as the main
cause of urban growth. However, the urban and rural
populations of a country can change as a result of
births, deaths, migration and the redefinition of urban
and rural areas. Estimates of the components of urban
growth derived from census data referring to 55 developing countries indicate that, excluding China, natural
increasethe excess of births over deathsaccounted
for about 60 per cent of urban growth in the 1960s and
that its share had not declined markedly by the 1980s.
Furthermore, whereas in the 1960s the contribution of
natural increase to urban growth was similar in all major regions, by the 1980s it had risen to 66 per cent in
Latin America and to 75 per cent in Africa. Only in
Asia was there a decline in the percentage of urban
growth due to natural increase but, excluding China,
natural increase still accounted for 51 per cent of urban growth in Asia during the 1980s. China is exceptional in that, during the 1980s (the only period for
which estimates are available), natural increase accounted for a low 28 per cent of urban growth; that is
to say, the sharp fertility decline experienced by China
contributed to transforming rural-urban migration and
reclassification into the major components of urban
growth in that country. In other regions, however,
declining fertility has not yet had a similar effect and
in both Africa and Latin America, achieving a lower
urban
fertility
still
has
the
The urban growth rate of the world, which is defined
as the annual rate of change of the urban population,
was 2.6 per cent annually during 1970-1990, and is
projected to decline to 2.3 per cent per annum in 19952000. It is expected to decline further to have reached
2.0 per cent per annum by 2010-2015. In the less developed regions, the urban growth rate is 3.2 per cent
during 1995-2000 and is projected to decline to 2.5 per
cent per annum in 2010-2015. The least developed
countries are characterized by both a lower proportion
of population residing in urban areas and faster urban
growth. Of the major geographical areas, Africa has
the most rapid pace of urban growth, at 4.2 per cent
per year during 1995-2000.
At the same time, the rural population is still growing in most developing areas, at an average annual rate
of 1.7 per cent in Africa during 1995-2000 and 0.5 per
cent in Asia. In Latin America and the Caribbean as a
whole, the rural population is no longer growing, while
in the more developed regions the rural population has
31
Figure III.2. Percentage of population residing in urban areas,
1970, 1998, 2015 and 2030
Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.98.XIII.6), special tabulations.
potential of significantly reducing the growth of the
urban population.
oped regions, considered their patterns of population
distribution to require major change. Twenty-nine per
cent of all countries, 71 per cent of which are in less
developed regions, desired minor changes in their patterns of population distribution. Issues of population
distribution featured prominently not only at the International Conference on Population and Development,
but also at the United Nations Conference on Human
Settlements (Habitat II) held, in Istanbul in June 1996
and, as regards the rural population, at the World Food
Summit, held in Rome in November 1996.
The analysis of internal migration in developing
countries has often been limited to the consideration
of rural-urban migration; but for most of the countries
for which data are available, rural-urban migration is
not the flow accounting for the largest proportion
of internal movements. Indeed, in countries that are
still largely rural, rural-rural migration is likely to be
more important than rural-urban migration (as is the
case in Ethiopia, India and Thailand); whereas in
countries that are highly urbanized, urban-urban migration will dominate (as is the case in the Republic of
Korea in the 1990s, Brazil and Peru). Unfortunately,
only a few countries have consistently gathered information allowing an assessment of the different types of
flows. The data available indicate that the propensity
to migrate is higher among the countries of Latin
America and the Caribbean than among those of Asia.
In many developing countries, population distribution policies are largely synonymous with measures to
reduce or even block rural-urban migration. In practice, most policies aimed at slowing the growth of
large metropolitan areas have been ineffective. Even
in centrally planned economies, such as China’s,
which for years has utilized residential controls, there
are large “floating” populations of unauthorized migrants in all of the major cities. Although there is a
broad consensus among Governments in the developing world concerning the desirability of promoting
small and medium-sized cities, how to achieve this
goal is less clear. Regional development policies for
In 1998, only 27 per cent of countries in the world
considered their patterns of population distribution to
be satisfactory (see table III.2). In contrast, 44 per cent
of all countries, 87 per cent of which are in less devel-
32
TABLE III.2. GOVERNMENTS’ VIEWS ON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION,
BY LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT AND MAJOR AREA, 1998
(Number of countries)
View
Satisfactory Minor change Major change Total
desired
desired
A. By level of development
World
49
More developed regions
21
Less developed regions
28
Of which least developed countries
6
B. By major area
Africa
6
Asia
8
Europe
19
Latin America and the Caribbean
10
Northern America
2
Oceania
4
52
14
38
12
78
9
69
29
179
44
135
47
13
15
12
7
0
5
33
17
8
16
0
4
52
40
39
33
2
13
Source: Population Policy Data Bank maintained by the Population Division of the United Nations Secretariat.
lagging regions, border-region strategies and land colonization schemes have also been employed in a number of developing countries, but the impact of those
policies on national population redistribution has been
almost negligible.
Whereas there remains a considerable knowledge
gap with regard to the complexity and future implications of demographic change in the world’s megacities, there is now a generally accepted body of ideas
with respect to policy, and the debate about this topic
has become less ideological. In the 1960s and 1970s,
there had been an urban bias of planners and many
Governments. However, during the 1980s and early
1990s, it is not too strong to state that there was an
anti-urban bias of many scholars involved with the
topic. Both biases have dissipated. It is widely
acknowledged that cities are, in general, productive
places which make more than a proportionate contribution to economic growth. Moreover, a limited number of big but well-managed cities may put less pressure on the environment than a larger number of
smaller cities. City size per se is not a critical variable.
The size is not necessarily correlated with the severity
of its negative externalities. The key challenge is to
manage megacity growth efficiently.
Partially in response to the ineffectiveness of the
growth-centre strategies pursued by many developing
countries during the 1960s and early 1970s, many
countries have adopted strong rural-oriented spatial
policies. Rural development strategies are critically
important in developing countries for expanding food
production and improving agricultural productivity,
and consequently they may reduce push factors and
migration patterns. However, there is little evidence of
their total effect on rural-urban population flows.
In recent years, many Governments have abandoned
direct policies to control population distribution and
adopted policies that seek to work alongside market
forces. The idea behind this approach is to create a
“level playing field”, in other words, to provide infrastructure in under-served areas in order to channel private investment into designated regions. Chile, for
example, reports that it intends to charge those who
can afford it, market prices for urban services, thereby
eliminating subsidies that serve as an indirect incentive
for rural-urban migration. Salary differentials for public officials by area of residence, and targeted use of
housing investments, tax rebates, subsidies, technical
assistance and so forth, are also seen as having significant potential spatial impacts.
The Programme of Action recommends that Governments increase the capacity and competence of
city and municipal authorities to manage urban development. In this regard, they may wish to consider decentralizing their administrative systems. This also
involves giving the right to raise revenue and allocate expenditures to regional districts and local authorities. Such steps can increase the ability of local authorities to safeguard the environment, to respond to
the need of all citizens for personal safety and services,
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and to eliminate health and social problems, including
problems of drugs and crime. Governments, as well as
non-governmental organizations, can contribute to the
welfare of the urban poor by helping to develop their
income-earning ability. The Istanbul Declaration and
the Habitat Agenda on Human Settlements (United
Nations, 1997b, chap. I, resolution 1, annexes I and II),
adopted in 1996, contain additional commitments and
strategies for achieving adequate shelter for all and
making human settlements safer, healthier and more
liveable, equitable, sustainable and productive.
World Summit for Social Development (1995), the
Fourth World Conference on Women (1995), the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat
II) (1996), the World Food Summit (1996) and, most
recently, the nineteenth special session of the General
Assembly held in 1997 to review progress in the implementation of Agenda 21 (United Nations, 1993,
resolution 1, annex II), have stressed the interrelatedness of the major environmental, development and
social concerns with population issues (see box III.1).
These conferences and summits have helped to reinforce the conclusion from the Programme of Action
that efforts to slow down population growth, to reduce
poverty, to achieve economic progress, to improve
environmental protection and to reduce unsustainable
consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing and that slower population growth can buy
more time for countries to build the base for future
sustainable development.
Governments wishing to create alternatives to outmigration from rural areas should improve rural education infrastructure, health and other social services.
Equitable rural development can be further promoted
through legal and other mechanisms, as appropriate,
that advance land reform, recognize and protect property, water and user rights, and enhance access to resources for women and the poor. There is also a need
for effective systems of regional planning and decision-making, ensuring the wide participation of all
population groups. The Programme of Action also
urges countries to recognize that the lands of indigenous people and their communities should be protected from activities that are environmentally unsound or
activities that the indigenous people concerned consider to be socially and culturally inappropriate; in many
places, there is a continuing need for effective steps to
ensure such protection.
With respect to the wide range of environmental, social, health and economic goals set out in the Programme of Action and at other global conferences,
progress has been mixed. Overall progress has been
made, though with setbacks in some countries and regions, towards reducing poverty rates (though not as
yet the absolute number of the poor), increasing food
supplies and improving health and education. The Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21,
adopted in 1997 and contained in the annex to General
Assembly resolution S-19/2 of 28 June 1997, noted
particularly recent declines in the global rate of population growth as among the positive trends since
Agenda 21 had been adopted in 1992.
D. LINKAGES BETWEEN POPULATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
The Programme of Action aims to fully integrate
population concerns into development, environmental
and poverty-reduction strategies and resource allocation at all levels, with the objectives of meeting the
needs and improving the quality of life of present and
future generations, promoting social justice and eradicating poverty through sustained economic growth in
the context of sustainable development.
Even though poverty rates have declined dramatically in many countries in recent years, progress has been
uneven. Over 1.3 billion people are still classified as
poor, and the economic downturn that began with the
Asian financial crisis in 1997 has reversed some of the
gains. It is widely believed that the most important
factor accounting for poverty is the macroeconomic
environment, and especially factors that govern the
growth of employment. The period since the early
1990s
has
been,
with
some
notable
The objectives of the International Conference on
Population and Development in these areas are shared
with other recent global conferences and summits. The
34
Box III.1. Excerpt from the Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21 a
Population
The impact of the relationship among economic growth, poverty, employment, environment and sustainable development has become a major concern. There is a need to recognize the critical linkages between demographic trends and factors and sustainable development. The current decline in population growth rates
must be further promoted through national and international policies that promote economic development, social development, environmental protection, and poverty eradication, particularly the further expansion of
basic education, with full and equal access for girls and women, and health care, including reproductive health
care, including both family planning and sexual health, consistent with the report of the International Conference on Population and Development.
______________
a
General Assembly resolution S-19/2, annex, para. 30.
exceptions including the economies in transition, a
period of generally robust economic growth. However, the recent financial crisis shows that sustained progress cannot be taken for granted and that in today’s
economy the ramifications of a national or regional
financial crisis can quickly spread throughout the
globe.
pirical studies failed to find evidence of strong or consistent relationships between demographic change and
subsequent economic growth. However, recent assessments have revealed fairly large negative associations between rapid population growth, and its associated demographic components, and growth rates of per
capita output, based on data for the 1980s or later and
for the entire period from the 1960s through the early
1990s. The negative effect of high fertility on economic growth also appears greater for poorer countries. At present, this is an area of active research
work, where models and results are still emerging and
conclusions are preliminary. Furthermore, analysts
stress that realizing the potential benefits requires an
economic and political climate in which potential
workers can be productively employed, and where
potential savings are channelled into productive investments.
While population factors cannot account for shortterm economic fluctuations, there has been persistent
interest in population’s possible economic effects in
the longer run. The predominant view in recent years,
as reflected in the Programme of Action, is that slower
rates of population growth can buy more time to adjust
and can increase countries’ ability to attack poverty,
protect and repair the environment and build the base
for future sustainable development. During the past
several years, analysts have renewed directing attention to one aspect of population change, namely, the
possible economic implications during the demographic transition of the age-structural effects of declining
fertility. After a lag, lower fertility leads to an increased proportion of the population in the working
ages which, it has been proposed, should favour economic growth: resources freed from care for a larger
child population could be productively directed towards increased labour force participation (especially
among women) and towards increased investment in
both physical and human capital, thereby speeding
economic development. The importance of such effects was, however, called into question, as earlier em-
World food production per capita has increased by
more than 20 per cent over the period 1961-1996. The
most rapid increase has been in the developing countries where population more than doubled and daily
food calories available per person rose from roughly
1,900 to 2,600 calories. The general consensus (with
few exceptions) from the recent research literature is
that, with a steady increase in the prudent management
of food-producing resources and with an improved and
reasonably well-functioning institutional environment,
it should be possible to meet food needs in the foreseeable future. These assessments take into account,
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and are conditioned by, the projected slowing and
eventual stabilization of world population; all assessments recognize that food needs are linked to population size. Despite these grounds for cautious optimism, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) estimates that over 800 million
people today do not have enough food to meet their
basic nutritional needs. Although the percentage of
the undernourished is estimated to have declined
slightly between 1990-1992 and 1994-1996, their absolute number increased. There are important issues
relating to problems associated with food distribution
within and between countrieslargely matters of augmenting “entitlements” to the very poor; creating public-policy environments and rural infrastructure, including research and development, education and
health, that facilitate agricultural production; and encouraging strategies of environmentally-friendly, sustainable production. Furthermore, as stated in the
Rome Declaration on World Food Security (Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1996,
appendix), “a peaceful, stable and enabling political,
social and economic environment is the essential
foundation which will enable States to give adequate
priority to food security and poverty eradication”
(fourth paragraph).
The growth and distribution of the population have
direct impacts on the environment, but the nature
of these impacts is largely governed by institutional realitiesproperty rights, land distribution, taxes and
subsidies on various types of production and consumption, and the like. Given the nature of environmental
resources, government policies are critical to population-environmental interactions. Many Governments
view population size or trends as a factor contributing
to national environmental problems. Especially in
developing countries, population’s role is often viewed
as a serious concern. The urban environment and the
adequacy of water supplies (both amount and quality)
are the environmental areas where populations impact is most often seen as serious. Rarely, however, do
Governments seek a solution to environmental problems solely through altering population trends or distribution. In many cases though, Governments report a
policy approach that combines measures to affect population with other approaches to alleviating environmental problems.
During the 1990s, many Governments have been reevaluating and reforming their mechanisms for development planning, and in many areas there has been a
shift from central planning to a greater reliance on
market forces and the private sector. A crucial task in
this transition is to identify the areas in which the State
must continue to safeguard the interests of the disadvantaged “and the generations yet to be born that
would be likely to lose out, if the markets were to become absolute arbiters of their fate” (Visaria, 1998).
While non-governmental organizations and the private
sector can and should play an important role, government commitment, support and leadership at the local,
regional and national levels remain critical for halting
and reversing damage to the environment and for provision of primary and secondary education, primary
health care and other basic social services, especially
for the poor.
Environmental trends are much less encouraging. The special session of the General Assembly in
1997 to assess progress with respect to Agenda 21
concluded that “five years after the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development, the
state of the global environment has continued to deteriorate ... Some progress has been made in terms of
institutional development, international consensus-building, public participation and private sector
actions and, as a result, a number of countries have
succeeded in curbing pollution and slowing the rate of
resource degradation. Overall, however, trends are
worsening” (Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21, para. 9).
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