COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE
January 17, 2011
REPORT PD- 2011-02
PLACES TO GROW PLAN – PROPOSED AMENDMENT 1
RECOMMENDATION
THAT report PD-2010-02 be received; and
THAT Council direct Staff to send a letter to the Ministry of Infrastructure in support of Proposed
Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this report is to present Council with information pertaining to the proposed
amendment to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and its implications for the
Town.
BACKGROUND
The Province released the Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in June
2006 as a strategic planning document for the Greater Toronto Area, including Simcoe County, to
outline a broad land use based policy framework to effectively manage projected growth, promote
complete communities, and provide greater protection for the environment and agricultural lands.
On June 4, 2009 the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure released the “Simcoe Area: A Strategic
Vision for Growth” (Simcoe Area Vision) document, which was intended to guide future growth in
Simcoe County. The document included growth projections and intensification targets for Simcoe
County as a whole and each of its lower-tier municipalities. The Simcoe Area Vision identified five
Urban Node areas, including the community of Alliston, to which the majority of growth in Simcoe
County would be directed and proposed two strategic employment areas along Highway 400.
In October 2010 the Ministry released Proposed Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan for the Greater
Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan), which would modify the 2006 Growth Plan document to add
policies specifically pertaining to Simcoe County. The Amendment is based on the Simcoe Area
Vision but contains several new items and further changes to the lower-tier municipalities’
population allocation. The Province is seeking comments on the Proposed Amendment 1 with a
commenting deadline of January 31, 2011.
COMMENTS AND CONSIDERATIONS
The Proposed Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan (Attachment 1) allocates population and
employment for Simcoe County and all lower tier municipalities, and in particular the Town of New
Tecumseth, providing an intensification target associated with the built boundary of each
Settlement Area and a density target related to the designated greenfield areas within Settlement
Areas. Alliston is identified as an Urban Node where a significant portion of the population and
employment growth forecast will be directed to ensure a complete community develops.
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The following provides an analysis of the implications of each of; population allocation,
intensification target, and greenfield density target, as they pertain to the Town.
Population Allocation
When the Simcoe Area Vision was released, it proposed a residential population of 60,000 persons
by 2031 and an employment population of 26,500 persons for New Tecumseth. Changes to the
residential population for New Tecumseth have since been proposed by Amendment 1, reducing
the residential population to 56,000, while the employment figure remains the same. The reduction
in population for New Tecumseth appears to be due, in part, to the newly proposed additional joint
Urban Node for Midland and Penetanguishine.
To determine the impact of this proposed 56,000-population target, the following information has
been assembled. Chart A below shows a summary of the Town’s 2010 population based on the
2006 Census population and annual building permits. A detailed summary of building permits and
the corresponding population for each year from 2006 to 2010 is provided as Attachment 2. Chart
B shows a breakdown of approved subdivisions by location and type of residential unit, and
provides the population potential from these developments based on the number of units yet to be
built. The details of this by subdivision application are provided as Attachment 3 to this report and
the location of each subdivision is contained in Attachment 4.
Chart A- Summary of Population from Building Permits 2006-2010
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sub-total
2006 Census Population
2010 Population
Number of Residential Units
358
173
346
126
81
1,084
--------
Population from Building Permits*
2006-2010
913
441
815
321
207
2,697
27,701
30, 398
*Persons per unit calculation is based on Simcoe County’s Land Budget
Chart B- Population Potential for Remaining Subdivision Units
Remaining
Single/SemiDetached
Units
ALLISTON
1,508
BEETON
416
TOTTENHAM 1,241
NON-URBAN 1,983
291
0
186
630
411
0
322
214
2,210
416
1,749
2,827
5,228
1,061
3,966
6,935
TOTAL
1,107
957
7,202
17,190
5,148
Remaining
Townhouse
Units
Remaining
Apartment
Units
Total
Remaining
Units
* Persons per unit (ppu) is based on figures provided in Simcoe County’s Land Budget:
Single/Semi Detached – 2.55 ppu, Townhouse – 2.42 ppu, Apartment – 1.65 ppu
Total Population
Potential from
Units*
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To better understand the relationship between the 2010 population, the allocated population to
2031 as stated in the Proposed Amendment 1, and the remaining subdivision units, Chart C
provides a summary of these factors and a calculation of the number of residential units that could
potentially be constructed in the Town in relation to the proposed maximum population of 56,000.
Chart C- Summary of Population Figures
2010 Population
Total Remaining Subdivision Population and Units
Population: Current + Remaining Subdivisions
(30,398+17,190)
2031 Population Allocation (Proposed Amendment 1)
Population difference (56,000 – 47,588)
Population difference from 2010 to 2031 (56,000 – 30,398)
30,398
17,190 people
7,202 units
47,588
56,000
8,412 people
25,602
Although the population forecast for New Tecumseth allows for growth of more than 25,000 people
to the year 2031, Proposed Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan does not stipulate how this
population will be distributed within the Town in order to meet various targets. Further, the
Proposed Amendment 1 does not prescribe when the lower-tier municipalities are to reach their
allocated population. While the above allocation demonstrates that the Town’s population is well
within the proposed allocation, the overall population forecast for the Town also needs to include
the population derived from intensification to meet Places to Grow policies, as calculated below in
Chart D.
Greenfield Density Target
The density target for the Town of New Tecumseth, which applies to the designated greenfield
areas in the Town remains as was originally proposed by the Growth Plan at not less than 50
residents and jobs combined per hectare. The target is measured over the entire greenfield areas
of the municipality, which by definition are the areas within a settlement area that is not built-up
area. Excluded from the density target are features such as environmentally protected areas
which are identified in the applicable Official Plan or provincial plan and where the applicable
provincial plan or policy statement prohibits development in the features.
In evaluating the proposed density target as it applies to the Town, planning staff calculated the
current overall designated greenfield density at 51.30 people and jobs per hectare. In addition the
density of those subdivisions located outside of the Settlement Area boundary is at 63.70 people
and jobs per hectare. While the density calculations are currently made up of residents only, it is
noted that the density target will apply to employment and all new development will be required to
ensure the target continues to be achieved. For a detailed summary on the calculations see the
Subdivision Density Chart provided as Attachment 5.
It is evident that our current planning exceeds the 50 people and jobs per hectare density target,
therefore there are no issues with accepting the density target as proposed.
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Intensification Target
In accordance with the Growth Plan and Proposed Amendment 1, by the year 2015 and for each
year thereafter, the Town of New Tecumseth is to plan to meet a 40% intensification target. This
means that 40% of all residential development annually in the municipality is to be within the built
up area. Through conversations with the staff at the Ministry of Infrastructure, it was confirmed that
residential development within any Built Boundary, whether delineated or undelineated, would
contribute towards meeting the intensification target.
As was presented in Report #PD-2009-38, historically between 1997 and 2008, the Town
achieved an average rate of intensification of about 4%. In order to achieve a 40% intensification
target a significant amount of development needs to occur within the built boundary areas annually,
which will include higher density development in appropriate areas. To achieve the 40% target
based on the existing subdivision units in the Town, 3,936 units would need to occur within the built
boundary. Chart D below shows a summary calculation demonstrating the total number of units
required when you apply the 40% intensification target to the number of subdivision units currently
planned within the Town.
Chart D- Number of Units Required to Build All Existing Subdivisions and
Achieve 40% Intensification
Current
Subdivision
Units yet to =
be Built
7,202
Current
Units
Planned
Within Built
Boundary
(target 40%)
1,298**
+
Current
Units
Planned In
Greenfield
(target 60%)
Units required in
Built Boundary to
meet 40%
intensification target
Total units required
to meet 40%
intensification target
(5,904+3,936)
5,904
3,936*
9,840
5,904 / 60% = 9,840
5,904 (60%) + 3,936 (40%) = 9,840 (100% of all units)
*9,840 x 40% = 3,936
** Units planned within the built boundary areas in New Tecumseth including delineated and undelineated
built up areas.
The Town’s population if all targets are met and current subdivision units are built would reach
53,228 persons as shown in Chart E below:
Chart E- Population Including Current Applications and All Targets
2010 Population
30,398
Subdivision residual unit population (Chart B)
17,190
Remaining population resulting from 40% required units in Built Boundary (2,638* units)
5,640
TOTAL 53,228
*3,936-1,298 = 2,638
2,638 units: 40% (1,055)@ 2.42 ppu, 40%(1,055) @ 1.65 ppu, 20%(528) @ 2.55 ppu = (2,553 + 1,741 +
1,346) = 5,640 persons
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Settlement Areas and Built Boundaries
New Tecumseth consists of three Settlement Areas, Alliston, Beeton and Tottenham, which hold
the majority of the Town’s population and services. According to the Proposed Amendment 1,
these are to be the focus for residential and employment development, particularly the Community
of Alliston as an Urban Node. This policy is already reflected in the Town’s current Official Plan.
The County of Simcoe’s Adopted Official Plan, which is currently before the Ontario Municipal
Board and in the process of provincial modifications, also defines Settlement Areas in their
mapping. It is noted that the County has proposed an extension to the Settlement Area for Alliston
(Attachment 6), with its borders stretching easterly to Sideroad 10. The existing Town Official Plan
does not recognize this boundary, as the County’s Plan has not yet been approved.
In 2008 the province established Built Boundaries to reflect areas that were already built up within
the Settlement Areas. Lands that had been developed but were not serviced for long-term growth
were given “undelineated” Built Boundaries to acknowledge the existing developed area. All Built
Boundaries within New Tecumseth are provided as Attachment 7. New units built annually within
the Built Boundaries will be critical to meeting the aforementioned 40% intensification target. The
Proposed Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan introduces an additional boundary, called the Interim
Settlement Area Boundary, which is intended to help phase growth in a controlled manner.
Per Section 6.3.3 of Proposed Amendment 1, the County, in consultation with each lower-tier
municipality will delineate Interim Settlement Area Boundaries in its Official Plan.
The Interim Boundary will:
 Be no larger than the lands needed to accommodate the population forecast to 2031, while
meeting all intensification and density targets, and meet the land needs for a time horizon not
exceeding 20 years;
 Be contiguous with and include lands that are currently built up;
 Maximize the use of transit and other infrastructure;
 Make efficient and effective use of existing community infrastructure; and,
 Contribute to the development of a complete community.
Section 6.3.3.6 of Proposed Amendment 1 stipulates that Settlement Area Boundaries in all
municipalities in Simcoe County will not be permitted to expand until such a time as any set Interim
Settlement Area Boundary is contiguous with the Settlement Area Boundary and the population
has reached the allocated amount.
Future Growth Considerations for a 20-Year Period
Although the Growth Plan Amendment proposes to allocate 56,000 population to 2031, when the
Town will actually meet the 56,000 population is unknown and influenced by various factors. The
2008 GMS raises factors for population growth that remain the same and are applicable today.
Main factors of the GMS providing the rationale for population growth in the Town are as follows:

The amount of population growth assumes both employment by place of work and employment
by place of residence will tend to grow faster in South Simcoe taking into account that there is
enough population growth to generate a significant increase in community based jobs, which in
turn will establish a greater live work relationship in the Town.
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
As a result of the Growth Plan and the requirement for higher levels of intensification in the
Greater Toronto Area, it is expected that current preferences for single-detached and ground
related dwelling units will not be satisfied or met in the Regions of Halton, Peel, York and
Durham to the same extent as they are now. This means that areas outside of these regions
will become increasingly marketable and desirable to those with higher incomes looking to live
in a ground related dwelling.

A market demand for primarily ground related housing will cause lots on lands approved for
development to build out quicker than has historically occurred in the Town.

The proposed 2031 allocations will likely be reviewed again in five years in conjunction with
continuing future Places to Grow Plan reviews. This will provide opportunity for the population
allocations to be increased.

Given the supply of employment land, it is not expected that there will be a need for additional
employment land in the short term.
The 2010 population of New Tecumseth together with all lands currently designated for residential
development will bring the total population to 53,228. According to the Town’s 2008 Growth
Management Strategy, it takes between 7 and 12 years to bring raw land to a point where it is
prepared for development. Further, the GMS states that with strong development pressures placed
on New Tecumseth resulting from the Town’s proximity to the GTA, the demand for residential
dwellings is expected to increase.
On January 10, 2011, staff from the Ministry of Infrastructure gave a presentation on the Proposed
Amendment 1 to members of Town Council. During the explanation of the Interim Settlement Area
Boundaries, Ministry staff stated that based on the Simcoe County Land Budget exercise, it
appeared that New Tecumseth would not be required to identify an Interim Settlement Area
Boundary, as the available land in the Settlement Areas would be used within the 20-year planning
timeframe. This Provincial analysis is supported by Town assessment, particularly given that the
majority of Town subdivisions are advanced in the approval process and can therefore proceed
quickly to the building permit phase.
Because New Tecumseth would be able to meet density and intensification targets, use all
residentially designated lands in the Settlement Areas within 20 years and build all developments
currently in process while respecting the total population allocation of 56,000 people, no Interim
Settlement Area Boundary would appear to be necessary.
To assist in controlling development growth, it is important to address development applications
that have had no municipal approvals but are still considered active, notwithstanding they may
have been submitted some time ago. To deal with these applications, the Places to Grow Plan
Transition Regulation should confirm that Planning Act applications with no Council approval to
proceed should be required to comply with the current Planning Act.
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How to Plan to achieve the Provincial targets
As demonstrated by this report, it is not anticipated that this Town will have concerns meeting the
proposed population allocation of 56,000, nor the greenfield density target of 50 jobs and people
per hectare. Similarly, there does not appear to be a justification to establish an Interim Settlement
Area Boundary given that the existing subdivision plans in process plus the units to be
correspondingly built within the Built Boundary should sufficiently address but not exceed a 20-year
land supply requirement. However, a challenge will exist to achieve the proposed 40%
intensification target. To meet this target the Town will encourage and facilitate intensification with
a strong emphasis on good urban design. Upon approval of Proposed Amendment 1, the following
steps will be carried out:
 Undertake an Official Plan Amendment conformity exercise upon approval of the Simcoe
County Official Plan, with regard to growth management policies and targets.
 Prepare an Intensification Plan that will strategically identify intensification areas within the
built boundaries, all in support of achieving the 40 % intensification target across the
municipality.
 Amend the Official Plan and update the Town Zoning By-law with policies to facilitate
intensification to enable higher density in certain areas.
 Consider developer incentives to encourage intensification within the built boundaries such
as density bonusing when permitted, and extending Community Improvement Plans areas to
provide incentives for development that goes beyond the historic ‘downtown’ areas.
 Develop Neighbourhood /Block Plans providing area-specific policies, including design goals
and objectives that facilitate intensification in an appropriate manner.
 Utilize any provincial funding that may be made available to Alliston, to further its
development as an urban node.
Next Step
Staff recommend sending a letter to the Ministry of Infrastructure supporting the proposed
Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan. This letter will request that Simcoe County lower-tier
municipalities be granted at least one year to complete their Growth Plan Conformity Amendments
after the new Simcoe County Official Plan is approved and in effect. It would also request that the
Places to Grow Plan Transition Regulation confirm that Planning Act applications with no Council
approval to proceed be required to comply with the current Planning Act.
While it is difficult to predict when the Town will reach its allocated population of 56 000 persons,
the 2008 Growth Management Strategy, Provincial analysis and other relevant factors predict this
will be achieved within the 2031 planning timeframe. As such and given the number of residential
developments currently in process, along with the ability to continue with development and meet
the targets, staff are recommending that no Interim Settlement Area Boundary be established in
any of the Town’s settlements.
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FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
None.
Respectfully Submitted,
Lindsay Edwards, BA, MES(Pl)
Planner
Reviewed by,
_______________________
Eric Chandler, MCIP, RPP
Manager of Planning
Attachments:
1. Proposed Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan
2. Summary of Building Permits and Population 2006-2010
3. Current Subdivision Unit Summary
4. Residential Development Mapping
5. Subdivision Density
6. Simcoe County Proposed Alliston Settlement Area
7. Built Boundary mapping
________________________
Paula Strachan, MCIP, RPP, OALA, CSLA
Intermediate Planner