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ANNEX 1
Update of the Nuclear Illustrative Programme in the context of the second Strategic
Energy Review
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Reference
Scenario1
Hypothesis
50 Y lifetime2
Hypothesis
60 Y lifetime2
16%
14%
120
12%
100
10%
WEO'06 APS scenario
Nuclear share, %
80
8%
60
6%
40
4%
1) Sources TREN, IAEA-PLIM, PRIS and b ased on
BE+DE phase-out, ES freezing, all decided life
extensions and started new b uild (Olk3, Flam2,
Cernavoda, Belene1+2 & later Mochovce)
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2) Sources idem 1,
reference scenario with (hypothetical)
generalised lifetime extended to 50/60 y or
equivalent capacity of new b uilds
0
Nuclear share
Installed capacity, GW(e)
140
2%
0%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Fig 1: Calculated decrease of nuclear power capacity, in line with the current lifetime information.
18 GWe
12
X : Average : 23 years old
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146 operational NPPs
4 Under Construction (FI, FR, BG)
X
0
Build
5
10
15
20
25
Age (at 31/12/2007)
30
35
40
Source TREN, PRIS
Fig 2: Total capacity of Plants under construction & operational vs. age (31/12/2007).
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y
40
Oldest
Average
35
Youngest
30
25
20
15
10
5
NL (1)
UK(19)
SE (10)
FI (4)
BE (7)
DE (17)
SI (1)
ES (8)
HU (4)
FR (59)
LT (1)
SK (5)
BG (2)
CZ (6)
RO (2)
EU-27(146)
0
Source PRIS, NEA, TREN
Member State (Number of plants)
Fig 3: Age distribution of operational NPPs in the EU (31/12/2007).
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Total U needs
Uranium sources of the EU
25
25
U
savi ng
( M o x)
20
Imported HEU
Imported
Stock drawdown
15
U
needs
Reprocessed U
Reprocessed Pu
Re-enriched tails
5
EU mining
0
source ESA
kt U
kt U
15
10
1
20
Imported Nat U
10
5
Indigenous
0
Share of the EU based companies in the global production of U represents about 67% of the 2007 needs of the EU (from WNA, ESA)
25
kt
3500 t (HM)/y
source ESA; OECD Brown Book 2008
source ESA; OECD Brown Book 2008
3000
20
15
10
2500
VVER
2000
MOx
1500
CGR
1000
BWR
500
PWR
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Needs
Capacity
Needs
Capacity
0
0
Conversion² (kt U)
Enrichm ent² (kt SW)
Fuel Fabrication Needs²
Fuel Fabrication Capacity²
² The announced investments in the fuel cycle (conversion, enrichment & fabrication) will maintain the European capacities for the whole fuel cycle,
in the upper demand case for 2020, except for the limited VVER fabrication market which is likely to remain 100% Russian.
Fig 4: Current annual fuel needs and related covered capacities in the EU.
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List of Abbreviations
AES-92
APS
CANDU
CANada Deuterium Uranium design reactor
CO2
CSC
EDF
ELINI
EMANI
ENEF
EPR
ESA
EU
EUR
GEN IV
Carbon Dioxide
GWe
HEU
IAEA
IEA
MDEP
MOX
NDA
NEA
NPP
NPT
OECD
PLIM
PRIS
PRIMES
PWR
SW
TEN
WEO
WNA
WENRA
VVER
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Recent Russian designed Pressurized water reactor
Alternate Policy Scenario (WEO)
Convention on Supplementary Compensation for nuclear damage.
Electricité de France
European Liability Insurance Industry
The European Mutual Assurance for the Nuclear Industry
European Nuclear Energy Forum
European Pressurised Reactors
Euratom Supply Agency
European Union
European Utilities Requirements for Nuclear Safety
Generation IV Reactors are nuclear reactor
designs currently being researched.
1000 Megawatts of electrical power
Highly Enriched Uranium
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Energy Agency (OECD)
Multinational Design Evaluation Programme
Mixed Oxide Fuel
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority
Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD)
Nuclear Power Plant
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Plant Life Management (IAEA)
Power Reactor Information System (IAEA)
Energy system model supported by a series of
research programmes of the European Commission
Pressurised Water Reactors
Separative Work (enrichment)
Trans European Networks
World Energy Outlook (IEA two year publication)
World Nuclear Association
Western European Nuclear Regulators’ Association
The Russian abbreviation VVER stands for water-cooled, watermoderated energy reactor. Russian version of PWR reactor.
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Index of Figures
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(1)
Fig 1: Calculated decrease of nuclear power capacity, in line with the current lifetime
information.
(2)
Fig 2: Total capacity of Plants under construction & operational vs. age (31/12/2007).
(3)
Fig 3: Age distribution of operational NPPs in the EU (31/12/2007).
(4)
Fig 4: Current annual fuel needs and related covered capacities in the EU.
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