The Time Value of Money The Time Value of Money – Basics Firms, as well as individuals, are confronted with opportunities to earn positive rates of return on their money, either through investments in projects (physical assets) or in interest-bearing or appreciating securities and deposits (financial assets). Therefore, the timing of cash inflows and outflows has important economic consequences. Time value of money is based upon the premise that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar to be received at some future date due to the fact that the sooner a dollar is received the quicker it can be invested to earn a positive return. Evaluating financial transactions requires valuing uncertain future cash flows. Translating a value (cash flow) to the present is referred to as discounting (finding the present value). Translating a value (cash flow) to the future is referred to as compounding (finding the future value). Time value of money concepts are applied to single cash flows (lump sums), series of equal cash flows (annuities), series of equal cash flows that last forever (perpetuities), and series of unequal cash flows (uneven cash flow series). Time lines are frequently used to illustrate graphically when the cash flows occur. The principal is the amount borrowed or invested. Interest is the compensation for the opportunity cost of funds (the time value of money) and the uncertainty of repayment of the amount borrowed; that is, it represents both the price of time and the price of risk. The price of time is compensation for the opportunity cost of funds and the price of risk is compensation for bearing risk; together they constitute the required rate of return for the investment. Interest is compound interest if interest is paid on both the principal and any accumulated interest. Most financial transactions involve compound interest or compound rate of return (yield). Compounding (discounting) periods per year refers to the number of times per year a particular cash flow or cash flows are compounded (discounted). 1 Future Value of a Lump Sum The process of calculating a future value is called "compounding." In its most simple form, the relationship between the present value [PV], future value [FV], interest rate [i] and time [n] variables can be stated as follows: An amount to be received in the future [FV] is equal to the present value [PV] and the interest earned during the investment period [n]. That is: FV = PV + Interest, where Interest = PV * i FV = PV + [PV * i] = PV * [1 + i] Example: Assume that you currently have $100 and can invest it for one year at six percent. How much money will you have at the end of the year? FV [End of Year 1] = PV * [1 + i] FV [End of Year 1] = $100 * [1 + .06] = $100 * 1.06 = $106 Therefore, at the end of the year you will have accumulated $106 (which consists of the original $100 of principal and $6 of interest income). Now assume that you leave your $106 on deposit to earn six percent for another year. How much money will you have accumulated by the end of the second year? Stated differently, what is the future value of $100 that is invested at six percent for two years? FV [End of Year 2] = PV [End of Year 1] * [1 + i] FV [End of Year 2] = $106 * [1 + .06] = $106 * 1.06 = $112.36 or FV [End of Year 2] = PV * [1 + i] * [1 + i] = PV * [1 + i]2 FV [End of Year 2] = $100 * [1 + .06]2 = $100 * 1.1236 = $112.36 2 The second expression can be rewritten and summarized as follows: FV = PV * [1 + i]n , where n is the total number of years over which the current amount (present value) earns interest. In the event that interest is earned more frequently than annually, then the time variable [n] and the interest rate variable [i] must be modified to represent the number of interest-earning periods and the periodic interest rate involved. That is: FV = PV * [1 + (i/m)]n*m , where [m] represents the number of compounding (interest-earning) periods per year [n]. For example, if interest is paid semiannually (every six months), then the interest rate [i] must be divided by two (2) in order to calculate a semiannual interest rate, and the time variable [n] must be doubled because there are two interest-earning periods per year. Example: Assume that you currently have $100 and would like to invest your funds for one year at 6% (compounded semiannually). How much money would you have at the end of the year? FV [End of Year 1] = $100 * [1 + (.06/2)]1*2 = $100 * [1.03]2 FV [End of Year 1] = $100 * 1.0609 = $106.09 The amount of interest earned (and therefore the future value accumulated) when interest is compounded more frequently than annual is always greater than the amount of interest earned (and the future value accumulated) when interest is compounded annually, all other things remaining constant, since you are earning interest on interest more frequently. In the future value of a lump sum formula, the interest-rate term [1 + i]n is called the "Future Value Interest Factor for i and n" which can be written as [FVIFi,n]. Therefore, the future value of a lump sum formula (assuming annual compounding) can be written as: FVn = PV * [FVIFi,n] 3 Some individuals use interest tables that have FVIF’s calculated for various combinations of interest rate and time period. A sample section of a FVIF table is shown below: Future Value of $1 at the End of n Periods: Number of Periods 5% 8% 10% 20% 1 5 8 10 50 1.0500 1.2763 1.4775 1.6289 11.467 1.0800 1.4693 1.8509 2.1589 46.902 1.1000 1.6105 2.1436 2.5937 117.39 1.2000 2.4883 4.2998 6.1917 9100.4 Note: It is recommended that you obtain the FVIF’s using the “formula” method since the “tables” will not help you if you need to find the FVIF when, for example, n = 11.5 years and i = 6.75%. The FVIF in this case is found as follows: FVIF6.75%,11.5 = [1 + .0675]11.5 = [1.0675]11.5 = 2.1194865 For compounding periods other than annual, the future value of a lump sum formula can be written as: FVn = PV * [FVIF i/m,n*m] The calculations can be made easier with the help of either a financial calculator or a spreadsheet program. Using a Hewlett-Packard 10B calculator, for example, we calculate the future value of $1,000 invested 10 years at 6% with the following keystrokes: 1000 +/- PV 10 N 6 I/YR FV 4 PV is the present value, N is the number of periods, I/YR is the interest rate per period, and FV is the future value. You will notice that we changed the sign on the PV. This is due to the way the financial function is programmed, assuming that the present value is the cash outflow. The changing of the sign for cash outflows is required in most (but not all) financial calculators. In Microsoft Excel, the calculation uses the worksheet function FV: =FV(rate,nper,pmt,pv,type) Since there are no other cash flows in this problem, PMT (which represents periodic cash flows, such as a mortgage payment) is entered as a zero. To calculate the FV, the function requires the following inputs: =FV(.06,10,0,-1000,0) If interest is compounded continuously (that is, instantaneously), the compound factor uses the exponential function, e, the inverse of the natural logarithm (ln). To find the future value of a lump sum that is compounded continuously, the following formula is used: FV = PV * (e)i*n , where e 2.7183, a constant. For example, suppose you want to calculate the future value of $2,000 invested for twenty years at 12%, with interest compounded continuously. The future value is: FV20 = $2,000 * (e).12*20 = $2,000 * (2.7183)2.4 FV20 = $2,000 (11.02317638) = $22,046.35 Determining the Unknown Interest Rate (solving for i) Assume that you have $2,000 to invest today and in four years you would like the investment to be worth $3,500. What compound annual rate of interest would you need to earn? We know the present value (PV = $2,000), the future value (FV = $3,500) and the number of years (n= 4). Using the basic valuation equation: 5 FV = PV * [1 + i]n , and substituting the known values of FV, PV, and n, $3,500 = $2,000 (1 + i)4 . Rearranging the terms, we see that the ratio of the future value to the present value is equal to the compound factor for four periods at some unknown interest rate: $3,500/$2,000 = (1 + i)4 or 1.7500 = (1 + i)4 , where 1.7500 is the future value interest factor [FVIF i, 4]. Therefore, we have one equation with one unknown, i. We can determine the unknown interest rate either mathematically or by using the table of interest factors. Using the table of interest factors, we see that for four periods, the interest rate that produces an interest factor closest to 1.7500 is approximately 15% per year. We can determine the interest rate more precisely, however, by solving for i using the following equation: i = [(FV/PV)1/n] - 1.0 Therefore, the exact interest rate that will cause $2,000 to grow to $3,500 at the end of four years is: i = [($3,500/$2,000)1/4] – 1.0 i = [(1.75).25] – 1.0 = 1.1501633 – 1.0 = .1501633 = 15.01633% Therefore, if you invested $2,000 in an investment that pays 15.01633% compounded interest per year for four years, you would have $3,500 at the end of the fourth year. 6 A financial calculator can also be used to solve for i. Using a HP 10B, solve for i as follows: 2,000 3,500 4 +/- PV FV N I/Y Application: Determining growth rate in dividends for a stock. There are many applications in which we need to determine the rate of change in values over a period of time. If values are increasing over time, we refer to the rate of change as the growth rate. We can use the information about the starting value (the PV), the ending value (the FV), and the number of periods to determine the rate of growth of values over this time period. If we wish to determine the rate of growth in the values, we solve for the unknown interest rate. Consider the growth rate of dividends for ACME Corporation. ACME paid dividends of $2.84 per share in 1995 and $4.00 in 2000. We have dividends for two different points in time: 1995 and 2000. With 1995 dividends as the present value, 2000 dividends as the future value, n = 5 and we can solve for the compound annual growth rate as follows: i = g = ($4.00/$2.84)1/5 - 1 = 7.089855% Therefore, ACME's dividends grew at a rate of over 7% per year over this five year period. Determining the Number of Compounding Periods (solving for n) Let's say that you place $500 in a savings account that pays 8% compounded interest per year. How long would it take for that savings account balance to reach $800? In this case, we know the present value (PV = $500), the future value (FV = $800), and the interest rate (i = 8% per year). What we need to determine is the number of periods (n) required for $500 to grow to $800 at an interest rate of 8%. Let's start with the basic valuation equation and insert the known values of PV, FV, and i: 7 FV = PV (1 + i)n = PV * [FVIF8%,n] $800 = $500 [FVIF8%,n] Rearranging terms, [FVIF8%,n] = $800/$500 = 1.6000 Therefore, the FVIF8%,n is 1.6000. Similar to the determination of the unknown interest rate, we can estimate the number of periods by using the table of interest factors. If using the table of interest factors, look down the column for the 8% interest rate to find the factor closest to 1.6000. Then look across the row containing this factor to find n. From the table of FVIF’s, we see that the n that corresponds to a factor of 1.6000 for an 8% interest rate is between 6 and 7 periods. Therefore, we know that it will take somewhere between 6 and 7 years for a single deposit of $500 to grow to $800 at an 8% rate of interest. Using a HP-10B calculator, we can solve for the exact n as follows: 500 800 8 +/- PV FV I/YR N We can also use the following formula to solve for n: n = [ln(FV/PV)]/[ln(1+i)] , where ln stands for the natural logarithm. In the example above, n = [ln(800/500)]/[ln(1.08)] n = [ln(1.6000)]/[ln(1.08)] n = (.4700036292/.0769610411) = 6.107 years (6 years, 39 days) 8