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Vancouver Island University Faculty of Management, Business ~~ www.viu.ca/management/ Qume 232 – Business Statistics – Fall 2012 Faculty Office E-mail Telephone Website Office Hours Prerequisite Judy Palm Building 250, Room 423 [email protected] 250-753-3245 local 2693 http://web.viu.ca/jpalm Monday, Wednesday 14:30 - 16:00, Thursday 11:30 - 12:30 Students are also welcome to make an appointment at a time of mutual convenience. Min. "C" in one of Principles of Math 12, Applications of Math 12, Foundations of Math 12, or Math 151. Text Lind, Marchal, Wathen, Waite, Basic Statistics for Business and Economics, 4th Canadian Edition Central Objective The course will acquaint the student with statistical techniques which can be applied to problem solving in business and economics. The mathematical basis for these techniques will be presented. Statistical tools offered by the EXCEL spreadsheet program will be introduced. Specific Objectives After the student has completed the course, he/she will be able to do the following: 1. Define the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics. 2. Describe data using frequency distributions and graphic presentations. 3. Understand and use summation notation. 4. Calculate measures of central tendency and measures of dispersion. 5. Define the following concepts related to probability theory: a) experiment, event, outcome, sample space b) classical vs. empirical probabilities c) mutually exclusive and exhaustive events d) objective and subjective probabilities e) probability distribution f) marginal, conditional, and complementary probabilities g) statistically independent and statistically dependent events h) joint probabilities i) Bayes’ Theorem 6. Determine the number of permutations and combinations. 7. Carry out calculations involving discrete random variables: a) probability mass function b) cumulative mass function c) expected value, variance, and standard deviation of a random variable d) bivariate probability distribution 8. Calculate binomial probabilities and the mean and variance of the binomial distribution. 9. Use the Poisson and hypergeometric distributions. 10. Define a continuous probability distribution. 11. Use the normal distribution to calculate probabilities and approximate binomial probabilities. 12. Define the difference between probabilistic and nonprobabilistic sampling. 13. Define the difference between a population and sample. 14. Define the difference between sampling and nonsampling errors. 15. Understand how random numbers can be used to generate random samples. 16. Understand the difference between sample statistics and population parameters. 17. Explain what is meant by the sampling distribution of the sample mean. 18. Calculate the mean and variance for the sampling distribution of the sample mean. 19. Explain the role of the Central Limit Theorem in sampling theory. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. Assigned Readings Apply the finite population correction factor when appropriate. Calculate sample size. Explain why the sample mean is an unbiased estimator. Set up and interpret interval estimates for the population mean and the population proportion using different confidence levels. Use the t-distribution for problems involving small sample sizes. Perform tests of hypotheses for the population mean and population proportion. Understand the terminology of hypothesis testing: a) Type I and Type II errors b) One-sided and two-sided tests c) z-values and p-values d) Null and Alternative hypotheses e) Two-sample tests Describe the relationship between two variables using linear regression. Interpret the coefficient of correlation. Assigned readings from the text are indicated for each block. The test times are only approximate. The actual dates for the exams will be set as the course progresses. It is the student’s responsibility to come to class to find out the date each test will be given and the material that will be covered on the test. If you have to be away from class, keep in touch by email or the telephone voice messaging service. WEEK 1 2 3 4 12 Discrete random variables and the binomial distribution Test #1 Poisson and hypergeometric distributions Continuous probability distributions and the normal distribution Normal approximation to the binomial Sampling, sampling distributions, and the Central Limit Theorem Test #2 Estimation and confidence intervals Hypothesis Testing Test #3 Two-sample tests Linear Regression and Correlation 13 Test #4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Grading Method TOPICS Descriptive statistics Introduction to probability Counting numbers and Bayes’ Theorem READING Chapters 1,2, 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 4, pp. 114-118, Handouts Chapter 5, pp. 141-158 Chapter 5, pp. 158-165 Chapter 6 Chapter 6, pp. 192-196 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Chapter 10 Chapter 11, pp.328-333 Chapter 12, pp. 354-361, pp. 372-377 Four exams will be given and exam scores will be weighted as follows. Test #1 30% Test #2 30% Test #3 30% Test #4 10% No make-ups will be allowed except in the case of EXTREME PERSONAL EMERGENCY as evidenced by a doctor’s certificate or other appropriate certificate. No excuse will be accepted if you have already written the exam. Upon presentation of appropriate documentation, you can make up the exam. If an emergency does occur, please phone in on the day of the exam to notify me of your absence. There is a voice messaging system for saving messages. My phone number at Vancouver Island University is 250-753-3245-2693. It is the student’s responsibility to contact me as soon as he/she arrives back at the college so that a make-up exam can be written immediately upon return. A make-up exam may be different than the in-class test given on the exam date. The student should be prepared to write the make-up exam as soon as he/she returns to class. Partial credit will be assigned for correct logic in solving problems, therefore show all work in solving problems found on the exams. Using correct logic is important. If you use incorrect logic in solving a problem, you will not get full credit for the problem. It is not sufficient to put down just a single number to get credit. Completion of assigned homework will help prepare the student for exams. Discussion on homework assignments will be expected in class. Grading Scale Grades will be assigned according to the following scale. A+ 90 – 100% C+ 64 - 67 A 85 – 89 C 60 - 63 A80 – 84 C55 - 59 B+ 76 – 79 D 50 - 54 B 72 – 75 F < 50 B68 – 71 Academic Misconduct Academic misconduct includes, but is not limited to, giving and receiving information during any test or exam, using unauthorized sources of information during any test; plagiarizing; fabrication, cheating, and misrepresenting the work of another person as your own, facilitation of academic misconduct, and under certain conditions, non-attendance. Plagiarism will not be tolerated. You must reference your work and acknowledge sources with in-text citations and a complete list of references. This includes direct and indirect quotes, diagrams, charts, figures, pictures and written material. For group projects, the responsibility for academic integrity, which can result in academic misconduct and its resulting penalties, rests with each person in the group and sanctions would be borne by each member. No electronic dictionaries, cell phones or other electronic devices will be allowed in exams/ tests/quizzes. Only the following approved calculators may be used in exams/tests/quizzes. No other materials will be allowed on the desktop apart from a pen/pencil unless specifically approved by the faculty member. Texas Instrument BAII Plus, BAII, BA35; Sharp EL-733A; Hewlett Packard 10 B English Standards Assignments must be free of spelling, punctuation, and grammatical errors. Assignments containing such errors will be penalized (i.e. mark deductions). Proper English is expected on exams. Referencing The Faculty of Business requires the Harvard style of referencing for academic papers. Please see Quote, Unquote Referencing, and a Speedy Guide to Harvard Referencing at http://www.viu.ca/business/resources.asp. Accommodation Students with documented disabilities requiring academic and or exam accommodation should contact Disability Services on the second floor of Building 200.