Internal migration in Victoria
Population mobility
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Population mobility
One of the main sources of population mobility in Australia is the Census of
Population and Housing. Specifically, two questions are asked – one pertaining to
usual place of residence five years ago, and the other one year ago – to determine
the level and spatial pattern of mobility. This section considers data relating to place
of usual residence five years ago and on Census night.
Between 2001 and 2006, almost 7.5 million persons in Australia, or 43% of the
population changed address. This compares with figures of 1.7 million and 39% for
Victoria. This is likely to be an underestimate of the level of mobility, because the
Census does not count multiple moves.
Components of population mobility in Victoria
Of those persons aged five years or over, who were usually resident in Victoria in
2006, the majority (61%) were living at the same address as in 2001. Of those who
moved, many moves were local, that is within the same Statistical Local Area (SLA)
(11% of all residents) or from elsewhere in Victoria (20%).
Figure 1: Place of usual residence 2001, for persons usually resident in Victoria,
2006
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (2006)
Only 3% of the population aged over five had moved from another state in Australia,
compared to a national average of 3.3%, with a further 5% moving from overseas to
Victoria.
Table 1 shows that in comparison with other states, Victoria has the second lowest
level of population turnover, with only South Australia recording a lower rate (38%).
Queensland has the highest level of population turnover, with 51% of the population
aged five or more residing in a different address in 2006 from 2001. The high level of
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population turnover in Queensland is due to the proportionally high levels of
movements intrastate from outside of the same SLA and interstate. Numerically,
Queensland had the highest number (260,000) of persons moving to the state from
elsewhere in Australia; over half were from New South Wales (NSW), and about 20%
from Victoria.
Table 1: Components of population mobility, by state, 2006
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, Basic Community Profile (Table
B38)
For total numbers of movers, NSW was far ahead of the other states and territories
with over 2.3 million movers between 2001 and 2006, accounting for 41% of the
resident population aged 5 and over in 2006. NSW was followed by Queensland
(1.74 million movers) and Victoria (1.70 million movers).
Figure 2: Source of population turnover as a proportion of resident population,
persons aged 5 years and over, by state, 2006
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (2006)
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In all states with the exception of Tasmania, the largest proportion of the population
aged 5 and over who moved, moved outside their SLA but within their state of
residency. In contrast, 16% of the resident population aged 5 and over in Tasmania
had moved within the SLA they resided in during 2001, compared to 15% who had
moved elsewhere in the state. Similar patterns of mobility are experienced across
the states, with the vast proportion of those who have moved between 2001 and
2006, moving within the state that they resided in during 2001. However, in both the
Northern Territory (NT) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT), there are noticeably
high levels of movements from interstate with 15% of the resident population having
moved from interstate in the ACT and 19% in the NT. In the case of the ACT, this is
likely due to close links with neighbouring communities in NSW such as
Queanbeyan. In the NT, mobility has traditionally been higher due to the younger
age structure.
Population mobility by age
Figure 3 below shows a comparison between the age structures of the resident
population compared with those who moved between 2001 and 2006. Females were
slightly more likely to move than males, comprising 51.5% of all movers in Victoria
during this time period.
Figure 3: Age distribution of resident population and movers aged 5 years and over,
2006
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 (unpublished data)
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In terms of absolute numbers, Figure 3 shows that the most mobile group in society
are aged between 20 and 39, accounting for almost 800,000 (47%) of all movers
between 2001 and 2006.
Despite having slightly lower numbers in terms of overall population, the numbers of
movers aged 5-9 is higher than those in the age brackets 10-14 and 15-19. This
pattern of a decrease in mobility as persons enter their teens is replicated in Figure 4,
which shows the proportion of movers within each age bracket.
Figure 4: Proportion of people changing address by age, Victoria, 2001-06
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (unpublished data)
The proportion of the population aged between 5 and 9 who moved at least once
between 2001 and 2006 was 45%, compared to an overall figure of 39%. This
dropped to 36% for the following two age brackets before rising sharply after the age
of 20 to reach 72% for the age bracket 25-29.
The divergence between the 5-9 age bracket and the following two age brackets may
be attributed to the family life cycle, suggesting that parents are more likely to move
with their children when they are younger and are still forming a family household.
Moves of children are dictated by the mobility decisions of their parents. This
explanation is helped by the evidence of falling numbers and proportions of mobility
after the 30-34 age bracket, with the proportion falling back to the average at the 4045 age bracket.
The initial rise in mobility after the 15-19 age bracket may be explained by the
propensity of younger persons to move for educational and economic purposes.
Mobility for education, particularly tertiary education, is usually associated with
persons in their late teens and twenties. In addition, younger persons are likely to
move for employment opportunities when starting, or looking to advance, their
careers. In comparison to older age ranges, younger persons are less likely to have
partners/spouses and children, allowing greater flexibility in their movement
decisions, particularly if they are renting. However, it may also be a time during which
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younger persons are likely to move away from the family home, or move in order to
cohabit with their spouse or partner.
Whilst the numbers of persons moving reduces by successive age brackets after the
30-34 age bracket, the proportion of the population moving starts increasing again
from 16% in the 75-79 age bracket to 33% for the over 90 age bracket. Moves in the
older age groups are more likely to be health related, such as a move into a nursing
home. Persons may also move into a smaller dwelling due to the death of a spouse
or partner.
Figure 5 compares turnover by age between Victoria and the other states and
territories and shows a similar pattern across the age spectrum.
Figure 5: Proportion of people changing address by age and state, 2001-06
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (2006)
With the exception of the over 85 age bracket, Queensland has the highest
proportion of movers across all the age brackets. In comparison, Victoria has some
of the lowest proportions of movement across all age brackets, with the lowest
proportions between the ages of 5 and 24. Between the age brackets of 45-54 and
85 years and over, Victoria has either the lowest or the second lowest proportion,
with only the ACT having a lower proportion between 55 and 74 years.
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ABS Survey of Residential and Workplace Mobility
The most recent data on migration released by the ABS is by way of a survey
conducted in October 2008. This survey provides a useful complement to the
Census data because in addition to patterns of migration, reasons for moving were
also sought. This section presents some of the highlights from that survey.
In the three years prior to October 2008, over 1.1 million persons aged 18 years and
over in Victoria changed their usual address. This represented 29% of the
population. Consistent with Census data, the likelihood of moving declined with age
– about half of persons aged 18-34 years moved, compared with about 12% of
persons aged 55 years and over (see Figure 6 below).
Figure 6: Persons who changed their place of residence in the three years prior to
October 2008, by age
Source: ABS, Survey of Residential and Workplace Mobility, 2008 (Cat. no. 3240.0)
This pattern was consistent in both Melbourne and regional Victoria, though there
were slight differences in the propensity to move – 28.7% versus 30.1% respectively.
In particular, the mobility of persons aged 18-34 years and 55 years and over was
much higher in regional Victoria compared to Melbourne.
In terms of household tenure, renters were far more likely to move than those with a
mortgage (Figure 7). Again, this pattern was consistent regardless of residential
location. Across Victoria, 61.7% of renters changed their address, compared to
18.4% of persons with a mortgage. Owners who did not have a mortgage showed an
even lower propensity to move (10%). This is not surprising given that renters
generally have far more flexibility to move, and are likely to have less ties to their
place of residence.
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Figure 7: Persons who moved in the three years prior to October 2008, by tenure
Source: ABS, Survey of Residential and Workplace Mobility, 2008 (Cat. no. 3240.0)
As with Census data, the tendency to move differed across regions (Table 2). The
Inner Melbourne Labour Force Region, covering the central city area and
surrounding suburbs, had the highest proportion of movers in the three years to
October 2008 (55.8%). This region has a youthful age profile, and as discussed
above, younger persons have a greater tendency to move. Many overseas students
and migrants tend to settle in inner Melbourne, and this also contributes to the higher
level of mobility. The only other region to record higher than average mobility was
Outer Western Melbourne (34.0%). This area contains the Local Government Areas
(LGA)of Melton and Wyndham, which are growing rapidly as the urban area of
Melbourne expands.
Table 2: Persons who moved in the three years prior to October 2008, by Labour
Force Region
Source: ABS, Survey of Residential and Workplace Mobility, 2008 (Cat. no. 3240.0)
The survey also sought reasons as to why people changed residence, and the
results are summarised in Table 3 below. The decision making process behind
mobility can be complex because it is often not attributed to one reason alone,
therefore multiple responses were permitted in the survey.
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Table 3: Reasons for moving, three years prior to October 2008, Victoria
Source: ABS, Survey of Residential and Workplace Mobility, 2008 (Cat. no. 3240.0)
At the most broad level, accessibility reasons dominated responses (63.4%),
followed by other reasons (32.7%) and housing reasons (27.7%). When the
responses are examined in detail, the main reasons were to live near family and
friends (22.8%), work – better access or prospects (19.7%) and attractive
neighbourhood (19.1%).
While these responses shed light on the decision making process, it is interesting
that most of them can be classified as “pull” factors, that is what features of a location
compel people to move there.
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