Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations Chapter 8 Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations LEARNING OBJECTIVES The overall learning objective of Chapter 8 is to help you understand estimating parameters of single populations, thereby enabling you to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Know the difference between point and interval estimation. Estimate a population mean from a sample mean when is known. Estimate a population mean from a sample mean when is unknown. Estimate a population proportion from a sample proportion. Estimate the population variance from a sample variance. Estimate the minimum sample size necessary to achieve given statistical goals. CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY Chapter 8 is the student's introduction to interval estimation and estimation of sample size. In this chapter, the concept of point estimate is discussed along with the notion that as each sample changes in all likelihood so will the point estimate. From this, the student can see that an interval estimate may be more usable as a one-time proposition than the point estimate. The confidence interval formulas for large sample means and proportions can be presented as mere algebraic manipulations of formulas developed in chapter 7 from the Central Limit Theorem. It is very important that students begin to understand the difference between mean and proportions. Means can be generated by averaging some sort of measurable item such as age, sales, volume, test score, etc. Proportions are computed by counting the number of items containing a characteristic of interest out of the total number of items. Examples might be proportion of people carrying a VISA card, proportion of items that are defective, proportion of market purchasing brand A. In addition, students can begin to see that sometimes single samples are taken and analyzed; but that other times, two samples are taken in order to compare two brands, two techniques, two conditions, male/female, etc. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 245 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations In an effort to understand the impact of variables on confidence intervals, it may be useful to ask the students what would happen to a confidence interval if the sample size is varied or the confidence is increased or decreased. Such consideration helps the student see in a different light the items that make up a confidence interval. The student can see that increasing the sample size reduces the width of the confidence interval, all other things being constant, or that it increases confidence if other things are held constant. Business students probably understand that increasing sample size costs more and thus there are trade-offs in the research set-up. In addition, it is probably worthwhile to have some discussion with students regarding the meaning of confidence, say 95%. The idea is presented in the chapter that if 100 samples are randomly taken from a population and 95% confidence intervals are computed on each sample, that 95%(100) or 95 intervals should contain the parameter of estimation and approximately 5 will not. In most cases, only one confidence interval is computed, not 100, so the 95% confidence puts the odds in the researcher's favour. It should be pointed out, however, that the confidence interval computed may not contain the parameter of interest. This chapter introduces the student to the t distribution for estimating population means when is unknown. Emphasize that this applies only when the population is normally distributed because it is an assumption underlying the t test that the population is normally distributed albeit that this assumption is robust. The student will observe that the t formula is essentially the same as the z formula and that it is the table that is different. When the population is normally distributed and is known, the z formula can be used even for small samples. A formula is given in chapter 8 for estimating the population variance; and it is here that the student is introduced to the chi-square distribution. An assumption underlying the use of this technique is that the population is normally distributed. The use of the chi-square statistic to estimate the population variance is extremely sensitive to violations of this assumption. For this reason, extreme caution should be exercised in using this technique. Because of this, some statisticians omit this technique from consideration presentation and usage. Lastly, this chapter contains a section on the estimation of sample size. One of the more common questions asked of statisticians is: "How large of a sample size should I take?" In this section, it should be emphasized that sample size estimation gives the researcher a "ball park" figure as to how many to sample. The “error of estimation" is a measure of the sampling error. It is also equal to the + error of the interval shown earlier in the chapter. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 246 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations CHAPTER OUTLINE 8.1 Estimating the Population Mean Using the z Statistic ( known). Finite Correction Factor Estimating the Population Mean Using the z Statistic when the Sample Size is Small Using the Computer to Construct z Confidence Intervals for the Mean 8.2 Estimating the Population Mean Using the t Statistic ( unknown). The t Distribution Robustness Characteristics of the t Distribution. Reading the t Distribution Table Confidence Intervals to Estimate the Population Mean Using the t Statistic Using the Computer to Construct t Confidence Intervals for the Mean 8.3 Estimating the Population Proportion 8.4 Estimating the Population Variance 8.5 Estimating Sample Size Determining Sample Size When Estimating µ Determining Sample Size When Estimating p KEY WORDS Chi-square Distribution Degrees of Freedom(df) Error of Estimation (or error of the interval) Interval Estimate Interval Estimate Point Estimate © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. Precision (or bounds) Robust Sample-Size Estimation t Distribution t Value 247 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 8 8.1 a) = 3.5 x = 25 95% Confidence xz b) n x = 3.419 90% C.I. xz d) n = 25 + 1.96 x = 119.6 98% Confidence xz c) n x = 56.7 80% C.I. xz n n = 60 z.025 = 1.96 3 .5 = 25 + 0.89 = 24.11 < µ < 25.89 60 = 23.89 n = 75 z.01 = 2.33 = 119.6 + 2.33 23.89 75 = 0.974 = 3.419 + 1.645 = 119.6 ± 6.43 = 113.17 < µ < 126.03 n = 32 z.05 = 1.645 0.974 = 3.419 ± .283 = 3.136 < µ < 3.702 32 = 12.1 N = 500 n = 47 z.10 = 1.28 12.1 500 47 N n = 56.7 + 1.28 N 1 47 500 1 = 56.7 ± 2.15 = 54.55 < µ < 58.85 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 248 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.2 n = 36 95% C.I. xz n 8.3 n = 81 90% C.I. xz n x = 90.4 94% C.I. n 8.5 n = 39 96% C.I. xz = 211 ± 1.96 23 36 n = 211 ± 7.51 = 203.49 < µ < 218.51 = 5.89 x = 47 z.05=1.645 = 47 ± 1.645 5.89 = 47 ± 1.08 = 45.92 < µ < 48.08 81 2 = 49 8.4 n = 70 xz = 23 x = 211 z.025 = 1.96 x = 90.4 Point Estimate z.03 = 1.88 = 90.4 ± 1.88 49 = 90.4 ± 1.57 = 88.83 < µ < 91.97 70 N = 200 z.02 = 2.05 = 11 x = 66 N n 11 = 66 ± 2.05 N 1 39 200 39 = 200 1 66 ± 3.25 = 62.75 < µ < 69.25 x = 66 Point Estimate 8.6 n = 120 99% C.I. = 0.8735 x = 18.72 z.005 = 2.575 x = 18.72 Point Estimate xz n = 18.72 ± 2.575 0.8735 = 18.72 ± .21 = 18.51 < µ < 18.93 120 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 249 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.7 N = 1500 95% C.I. n = 187 z.025 = 1.96 x = 5.3 years xz n x = 5.3 years = 1.28 years Point Estimate N n 1.28 1500 187 = 5.3 ± 1.96 = N 1 1500 1 187 5.3 ± .17 = 5.13 < µ < 5.47 8.8 n = 24 90% C.I. xz n 8.9 n = 36 98% C.I. xz n 8.10 n = 36 = 3.23 x = 5.625 z.05 = 1.645 = 5.625 ± 1.645 3.23 24 = 1.17 x = 3.306 z.01 = 2.33 = 3.306 ± 2.33 = 5.625 ± 1.085 = 4.540 < µ < 6.710 1.17 36 = 3.306 ± .454 = 2.852 < µ < 3.760 = .113 x = 2.139 x = 2.139 Point Estimate 90% C.I. xz n z.05 = 1.645 = 2.139 ± 1.645 (.113) = 2.139 ± .031 = 2.108 < µ < 2.170 36 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 250 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.11 95% confidence interval x = 24.511 xz n n = 45 = 5.124 = 24.511 + 1.96 z.025 = 1.96 5.124 45 = 24.511 + 1.497 = 23.014 < < 26.008 x = 24.511 Point Estimate Error of the Interval = 1.497 8.12 The point estimate is 0.5765. The assumed standard deviation is 0.140000. Sample size: n = 41 Error of the estimate (error of the interval): 0.140000 z 2 z 2 0.042853 n 41 z 2 0.619353 – 0.576500 = 0.042853 0.042853 41 1.96 0.140000 95% level of confidence Confidence interval: 8.13 n = 13 0.533647 < µ < 0.619353 x = 45.62 s = 5.694 df = 13 – 1 = 12 95% Confidence Interval and /2=.025 t.025,12 = 2.179 xt s n 8.14 n = 12 = 45.62 ± 2.179 5.694 = 45.62 ± 3.44 = 42.18 < µ < 49.06 13 x = 319.17 s = 9.104 df = 12 – 1 = 11 90% confidence interval /2 = .05 t.05,11 = 1.796 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 251 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations xt s n = 319.17 ± (1.796) 8.15 n = 41 9.104 = 319.17 ± 4.72 = 314.45 < µ < 323.89 12 x = 128.4 s = 20.6 df = 41 – 1 = 40 98% Confidence Interval /2 = .01 t.01,40 = 2.423 xt s n = 128.4 ± 2.423 20.6 41 = 128.4 ± 7.80 = 120.6 < µ < 136.2 x = 128.4 Point Estimate 8.16 n = 15 s2 = 0.81 x = 2.364 df = 15 – 1 = 14 90% Confidence interval /2 = .05 t.05,14 = 1.761 xt s n = 2.364 ± 1.761 8.17 n = 25 0.81 = 2.364 ± .409 = 1.955 < µ < 2.773 15 x = 16.088 s = .817 df = 25 – 1 = 24 99% Confidence Interval /2 = .005 t.005,24 = 2.797 xt s n = 16.088 ± 2.797 (.817 ) 25 = 16.088 ± .457 = 15.631 < µ < 16.545 x = 16.088 Point Estimate © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 252 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.18 n = 51 x = 1,192 s = 279 98% CI and /2 = .01 xt s n df = n – 1 = 50 t.01,50 = 2.403 = 1,192 + 2.403 279 51 = 1,192 + 93.880 = 1,098.12 < < 1,285.88 The figure given by Runzheimer International falls within the confidence interval. Therefore, there is no reason to reject the Runzheimer figure as different from what we are getting based on this sample. 8.19 n = 20 df = 19 x = 2.36116 95% CI t.025,19 = 2.093 s = 0.19721 2.36116 + 2.093 0.1972 = 2.36116 + 0.0923 = 2.26886 < < 2.45346 20 Point Estimate = 2.36116 Error = 0.0923 8.20 n = 28 x = 5.264 s = 2.043 df = 28 – 1 = 27 /2 = .05 90% Confidence Interval t.05,27 = 1.703 xt s n 8.21 n = 10 = 5.264 ± 1.703 x = 49.8 95% Confidence xt s n 2.043 28 s = 18.22 /2 = .025 = 49.8 ± 2.262 = 5.264 + .658 = 4.606 < µ < 5.922 df = 10 – 1 = 9 t.025,9 = 2.262 18.22 = 49.8 + 13.03 = 36.77 < µ < 62.83 10 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 253 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.22 n = 14 /2 = .01 98% confidence df = 13 t.01,13 = 2.650 from data: x = 152.16 confidence interval: xt s = 14.42 s n = 152.16 + 2.65 14.42 = 14 152.16 + 10.21 = 141.95 < < 162.37 The point estimate is 152.16 8.23 n = 41 df = 41 – 1 = 40 /2 = .005 99% confidence t.005,40 = 2.704 from data: x = 11.10 confidence interval: xt s = 8.45 s n = 11.10 + 2.704 8.45 41 = 11.10 + 3.57 = 7.53 < < 14.67 8.24 The point estimate is x which is 25.4134 hours. The sample size is 26 skiffs. The confidence level is 98%. The confidence interval is: s s x t x t = 22.8124 < < 28.0145 n n The error of the confidence interval is 2.6011. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 254 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.25 a) n = 44 n = 300 a) n = 95 pˆ z 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 p̂ = .32 88% C.I. z.06 = 1.555 x = 57 99% C.I. z.005 = 2.575 (.49)(.51) pˆ qˆ = .49 ± 2.575 = .49 ± .12 = .37 < p < .61 n 116 n = 800 p̂ = p̂ = .48 x 57 = .49 n 116 pˆ z b) z.025 = 1.96 (.32)(.68) pˆ qˆ = .32 ± 1.555 = .32 ± .074 = .246 < p < .394 n 95 n = 116 p̂ = 95% C.I. (.48)(.52) pˆ qˆ = .48 ± 1.645 = .48 ± .024 = .456 < p < .504 n 1150 pˆ z 8.26 p̂ = .82 n = 1150 pˆ z d) z.005 = 2.575 (.82)(.18) pˆ qˆ = .82 ± 1.96 = .82 ± .043 = .777 < p < .863 n 300 pˆ z c) 99% C.I. (.51)(.49) pˆ qˆ = .51 ± 2.575 = .51 ± .194 = .316 < p< .704 n 44 pˆ z b) p̂ =.51 x = 479 97% C.I. z.015 = 2.17 x 479 = .60 n 800 (.60)(.40) pˆ qˆ = .60 ± 2.17 = .60 ± .038 = .562 < p < .638 n 800 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 255 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations c) n = 240 p̂ = pˆ z 8.27 n = 85 p̂ = pˆ z 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 x 21 = .35 n 60 (.35)(.65) pˆ qˆ = .35 ± 1.645 = .35 ± .10 = .25 < p < .45 n 60 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 x 40 = .47 n 85 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.645 = .47 ± .09 = .38 < p < .56 n 85 z.025 = 1.96 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.96 = .47 ± .11 = .36 < p < .58 n 85 99% C.I. pˆ z x = 21 x = 40 95% C.I. pˆ z z.075 = 1.44 (.44)(.56) pˆ qˆ = .44 ± 1.44 = .44 ± .046 = .394 < p < .486 n 240 n = 60 p̂ = 85% C.I. x 106 = .44 n 240 pˆ z d) x = 106 z.005 = 2.575 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 2.575 = .47 ± .14 = .33 < p < .61 n 85 All other things being constant, as the confidence increased, the width of the interval increased. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 256 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.28 n = 1003 p̂ = .255 99% CI z.005 = 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.255)(.745) = .255 + 2.575 = .255 + .035 = .220 < p < .290 n 1003 pˆ z n = 10,000 p̂ = .255 99% CI z.005 = 2.575 (.255)(. 745) pˆ qˆ = .255 + 2.575 = .255 + .011 = .244 < p < .266 10,000 n pˆ z The confidence interval constructed using n = 1003 is wider than the confidence interval constructed using n = 10,000. One might conclude that, all other things being constant, increasing the sample size reduces the width of the confidence interval. 8.29 n = 560 p̂ = .47 n = 560 8.30 p̂ = .28 pˆ z 90% CI z.05 = 1.645 (.28)(.72) pˆ qˆ = .28 + 1.645 = .28 + .0312 = .2488 < p < .3112 n 560 n = 1250 p̂ = z.025 = 1.96 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 + 1.96 = .47 + .0413 = .4287 < p < .5113 n 560 pˆ z pˆ z 95% CI x = 997 98% C.I. z.01 = 2.33 x 997 = .80 n 1250 (.80)(.20) pˆ qˆ = .80 ± 2.33 = .80 ± .026 = .774 < p < .826 n 1250 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 257 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.31 n = 3481 p̂ = x = 927 x 927 = .266 n 3481 a) p̂ = .266 Point Estimate b) 99% C.I. pˆ z z.005 = 2.575 (.266)(.734) pˆ qˆ = .266 + 2.575 = .266 ± .019 = n 3481 .247 < p < .285 8.32 n = 89 p̂ = p̂ = .63 pˆ z n = 672 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 (.63)(.37) pˆ qˆ = .63 + 1.96 = .63 + .0365 = .5935 < p < .6665 n 672 n = 275 p̂ = z.075 = 1.44 (.54)(.46) pˆ qˆ = .54 ± 1.44 = .54 ± .076 = .464 < p < .616 n 89 pˆ z 8.34 85% C.I. x 48 = .54 n 89 pˆ z 8.33 x = 48 x = 121 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 x 121 = .44 n 275 pˆ qˆ (.44)(.56) = .44 ± 2.33 = .44 ± .07 = .37 < p < .51 n 275 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 258 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.35 a) n = 12 s2 = 44.9 x = 28.4 2.995,11 = 2.60320 99% C.I. df = 12 – 1 = 11 2.005,11 = 26.7569 (12 1)( 44.9) (12 1)( 44.9) < 2 < 2.60320 26.7569 18.46 < 2 < 189.73 b) n=7 x = 4.37 s = 1.24 2.975,6 = 1.23734 s2 = 1.5376 95% C.I. df = 7 – 1 = 6 2.025,6 = 14.4494 (7 1)(1.5376) (7 1)(1.5376) < 2 < 1.23734 14.4494 0.64 < 2 < 7.46 c) n = 20 x = 105 s = 32 2.95,19 = 10.11701 s2 = 1024 90% C.I. df = 20 – 1 = 19 2.05,19 = 30.1435 (20 1)(1024) (20 1)(1024) < 2 < 10.11701 30.1435 645.45 < 2 < 1923.10 d) n = 17 s2 = 18.56 2.90,16 = 9.31224 80% C.I. df = 17 – 1 = 16 2.10,16 = 23.5418 (17 1)(18.56) (17 1)(18.56) < 2 < 9.31224 23.5418 12.61 < 2 < 31.89 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 259 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.36 n = 16 s2 = 37.1833 2.99,15 = 5.22936 df = 16 – 1 = 15 98% C.I. 2.01,15 = 30.5780 (16 1)(37.1833) (16 1)(37.1833) < 2 < 30.5780 5.22936 18.24 < 2 < 106.66 8.37 n = 20 s = 4.3 2.99,19 = 7.63270 s2 = 18.49 df = 20 – 1 = 19 98% C.I. 2.01,19 = 36.1908 (20 1)(18.49) (20 1)(18.49) < 2 < 36.1908 7.63270 9.71 < 2 < 46.03 Point Estimate = s2 = 18.49 8.38 n = 15 s2 = 3.067 2.995,14 = 4.07466 df = 15 – 1 = 14 99% C.I. 2.005,14 = 31.3194 (15 1)(3.067) (15 1)(3.067) < 2 < 31.3194 4.07466 1.37 < 2 < 10.54 8.39 n = 14 s2 = 26,798,241.76 95% C.I. df = 14 – 1 = 13 Point Estimate = s2 = 26,798,241.76 2.975,13 = 5.00874 2.025,13 = 24.7356 (14 1)( 26,798,241.76) (14 1)( 26,798,241.76) < 2 < 24.7356 5.00874 14,084,038.51 < 2 < 69,553,848.45 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 260 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.40 a) = 36 n= E=5 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (36) 2 = 199.15 E2 52 Sample 200 b) = 4.13 n= E=1 99% Confidence z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (4.13) 2 E2 12 z.005 = 2.575 = 113.1 Sample 114 c) Range = 500 – 80 = 420 E = 10 1/4 Range = (.25)(420) = 105 90% Confidence n = z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (105) 2 = 298.3 E2 10 2 Sample 299 d) Range = 108 – 50 = 58 E=3 1/4 Range = (.25)(58) = 14.5 88% Confidence n = z.06 = 1.555 z 2 2 (1.555) 2 (14.5) 2 E2 32 = 56.5 Sample 57 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 261 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.41 a) E = .02 p = .40 96% Confidence z.02 = 2.05 z 2 p q (2.05) 2 (.40)(.60) n = = 2521.5 E2 (.02) 2 Sample 2522 b) E = .04 p = .50 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) = 600.25 E2 (.04) 2 n = Sample 601 c) E = .05 n = p = .55 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.55)(.45) = 267.9 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 268 d) E =.01 n = p = .50 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 z 2 p q (2.575) 2 (.50)(.50) = 16,576.6 E2 (.01) 2 Sample 16,577 8.42 E = $200 = $1,000 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (1000) 2 n = = 165.77 E2 200 2 Sample 166 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 262 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.43 = $12.50 E = $2.00 n = 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (12.50) 2 = 105.7 E2 2.00 2 Sample 106 8.44 E = $100 Range = $2,500 - $600 = $1,900 1/4 Range = (.25)($1,900) = $475 90% Confidence n = z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (475) 2 = 61.05 E2 100 2 Sample 62 8.45 p = .20 q = .80 90% Confidence, E = .02 z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.20)(.80) n = = 1082.41 E2 (.02) 2 Sample 1083 8.46 p = .50 q = .50 95% Confidence, E = .05 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) n = = 384.16 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 385 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 263 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.47 E = .10 p = .50 q = .50 95% Confidence, z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) n = = 96.04 E2 (.10) 2 Sample 97 8.48 x = 45.6 = 7.75 80% confidence xz n n = 35 z.10 = 1.28 45.6 1.28 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 1.68 43.92 < < 47.28 94% confidence xz n z.03 = 1.88 45.6 1.88 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 2.46 43.14 < < 48.06 98% confidence xz n z.01 = 2.33 45.6 2.33 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 3.05 42.55 < < 48.65 x = 45.6 (point estimate) © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 264 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.49 x = 12.03 (point estimate) /2 = .05 For 90% confidence: xt s n s = .4373 12.03 1.833 (.4373) 10 n = 10 df = 9 t.05,9= 1.833 = 12.03 + .25 11.78 < < 12.28 /2 = .025 For 95% confidence: xt s n 12.03 2.262 (.4373) 10 t.025,9 = 2.262 = 12.03 + .31 11.72 < < 12.34 /2 = .005 For 99% confidence: xt s n 12.03 3.25 (.4373) 10 t.005,9 = 3.25 = 12.03 + .45 11.58 < < 12.48 8.50 a) n = 715 pˆ x = 329 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 329 = .46 715 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.46)(.54) = .46 + .0365 .46 1.96 n 715 .4235 < p < .4965 b) n = 284 pˆ z p̂ = .71 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 pˆ qˆ (.71)(.29) .71 1.645 = .71 + .0443 n 284 .6657 < p < .7543 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 265 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations c) n = 1250 pˆ z p̂ = .48 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 pˆ qˆ (.48)(.52) = .48 + .0277 .48 1.96 n 1250 .4523 < p < .5077 d) n = 457 pˆ x = 270 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 270 = .591 457 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.591)(.409) = .591 + .0536 .591 2.33 n 457 .5374 < p < .6446 8.51 n = 10 s2 = 54.7667 s = 7.40045 90% confidence, 2.95,9 = 3.32512 /2 = .05 df = 10 – 1 = 9 1 - /2 = .95 2.05,9 = 16.9190 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 16.9190 3.32512 29.133 < 2 < 148.235 95% confidence, 2.975,9 = 2.70039 /2 = .025 1 - /2 = .975 2.025,9 = 19.0228 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 19.0228 2.70039 25.911 < 2 < 182.529 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 266 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.52 a) = 44 n = E=3 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (44) 2 = 826.4 E2 32 Sample 827 b) Range = 88 – 20 = 68 E=2 use = 1/4(range) = (.25)(68) = 17 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (17) 2 = 195.5 E2 22 Sample 196 c) E = .04 p = .50 98% confidence q = .50 z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q (2.33) 2 (.50)(.50) = 848.3 E2 (.04) 2 Sample 849 d) E = .03 p = .70 95% confidence q = .30 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.70)(.30) = 896.4 E2 (.03) 2 Sample 897 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 267 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.53 n = 17 x = 10.765 /2 = .005 99% confidence s xt n 10.765 2.921 df = 17 – 1 = 16 s = 2.223 2.223 17 t.005,16 = 2.921 = 10.765 + 1.575 9.19 < µ < 12.34 8.54 p = .40 n = E=.03 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.40)(.60) = 721.61 E2 (.03) 2 Sample 722 8.55 s2 = 4.941 n = 17 2.995,16 = 5.14216 99% C.I. df = 17 – 1 = 16 2.005,16 = 34.2671 (17 1)( 4.941) (17 1)( 4.941) < 2 < 34.2671 5.14216 2.307 < 2 < 15.374 8.56 n = 45 98% Confidence xz = 48 x = 213 n 213 2.33 z.01 = 2.33 48 45 = 213 ± 16.67 196.33 < µ < 229.67 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 268 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.57 n = 39 90% confidence xz = 3.891 x = 37.256 n z.05 = 1.645 37.256 1.645 3.891 39 = 37.256 ± 1.025 36.231 < µ < 38.281 8.58 = 6 E=1 98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33 z 2 2 (2.33) 2 (6) 2 = 195.44 E2 12 n = Sample 196 8.59 n = 1,255 pˆ x = 714 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 714 = .569 1255 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.569)(. 431) .569 1.96 = .569 ± .027 n 1,255 .542 < p < .596 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 269 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.60 n = 41 x 128 s = 21 98% C.I. df = 41 – 1 = 40 t.01,40 = 2.423 Point Estimate = $128 s xt n 128 2.423 21 41 = 128 + 7.947 120.053 < < 135.947 Interval Width = 135.947 – 120.053 = 15.894 8.61 n = 60 x = 6.717 98% Confidence xz n = 3.06 N = 300 z.01 = 2.33 N n 3.06 300 60 = 6.717 2.33 N 1 60 300 1 6.717 ± 0.825 5.892 < µ < 7.542 8.62 E = $20 Range = $600 – $30 = $570 1/4 Range = (.25)($570) = $142.50 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (142.50) 2 n = = 195.02 E2 20 2 Sample 196 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 270 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.63 n = 245 pˆ x = 189 90% Confidence z.05= 1.645 x 189 = .77 n 245 pˆ qˆ (.77)(.23) = .77 ± .044 .77 1.645 n 245 pˆ z .726 < p < .814 8.64 n = 90 pˆ x = 30 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 x 30 = .33 n 90 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) .33 1.96 = .33 ± .097 n 90 pˆ z .233 < p < .427 8.65 n = 12 x = 43.7 s2 = 228 df = 12 – 1 = 11 95% C.I. t.025,11 = 2.201 xt s n 43.7 2.201 228 12 = 43.7 + 9.59 34.11 < < 53.29 2.99,11 = 3.05350 2.01,11 = 24.7250 (12 1)( 228) (12 1)( 228) < 2 < 24.7250 3.05350 101.44 < 2 < 821.35 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 271 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.66 n = 27 x = 4.82 95% CI: s xt n s = 0.37 df = 26 t.025,26 = 2.056 0.37 4.82 2.056 27 = 4.82 + .1464 4.6736 < µ < 4.9664 Since 4.50 is not in the interval, we are 95% confident that µ does not equal 4.50. 8.67 n = 77 = 12 x = 2.48 95% Confidence xz n 2.48 1.96 z.025 = 1.96 12 77 = 2.48 ± 2.68 -0.20 < µ < 5.16 The point estimate is 2.48 The interval is inconclusive. It says that we are 95% confident that the average arrival time is somewhere between .20 of a minute (12 seconds) early and 5.16 minutes late. Since zero is in the interval, there is a possibility that, on average, the flights are on time. 8.68 p̂ =.33 n = 560 99% Confidence pˆ z z.005= 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) .33 2.575 = .33 ± .05 n 560 .28 < p < .38 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 272 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.69 p = .50 E = .05 98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q (2.33) 2 (.50)(.50) = 542.89 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 543 8.70 n = 27 x = 2.10 /2 = .01 98% confidence s xt n 2.10 2.479 df = 27 – 1 = 26 s = 0.86 0.86 27 t.01,26 = 2.479 = 2.10 ± 0.41 1.69 < µ < 2.51 8.71 df = 23 – 1 = 22 n = 23 2.95,22 = 12.33801 s = .014419 90% C.I. 2.05,22 = 33.9245 (23 1)(.014419) 2 (23 1)(.014419) 2 < 2 < 33.9245 12.33801 .00013 < 2 < .00037 8.72 n = 39 xz x = 1.294 n 1.294 2.575 = 0.205 0.205 39 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 = 1.294 ± .085 1.209 < µ < 1.379 © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 273 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8.73 The sample mean fill for the 510 cans is 354.373 ml with a standard deviation of 1.5857 ml. The 99% confidence interval for the population fill is 353.837 ml to 354.908 ml which does not include 355 ml. We are 99% confident that the population mean is not 355 ml, indicating that the machine may be underfilling the cans. 8.74 The point estimate for the average length of burn of the new bulb is 2198.217 hours. Eighty-four bulbs were included in this study. A 90% confidence interval can be constructed from the information given. The error of the confidence interval is + 27.76691. Combining this with the point estimate yields the 90% confidence interval of 2198.217 + 27.76691 = 2170.450 < µ < 2225.984. 8.75 The point estimate for the average age of a first time buyer is 27.63 years. The sample of 21 buyers produces a standard deviation of 6.54 years. We are 99% confident that the actual population mean age of a first-time home buyer is between 24.0222 years and 31.2378 years. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 274