Investments 9 - Portfolio Rebalancing and

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Personal Finance: Another Perspective
Investments 9:
Portfolio Rebalancing and
Reporting
1
Objectives
 A. Understand portfolio rebalancing
 B. Understand the importance of portfolio
management and performance evaluation
 C. Understand risk-adjusted performance
measures
 D. Understand how to perform attribution
analysis
2
Investment Plan Assignments
Investments 9: Portfolio Rebalancing and
Reporting
1. Determine the type of rebalancing you will likely
use and how often you will rebalance, and include
it in your investment plan under section IV.B.2 of
your Investment Plan.
2. Think through the new money/donations
addendum, and how you will utilize it to minimize
taxes and transactions costs in rebalancing
3. Determine how often you will monitor and report
on your portfolio, and include it in IV.A.1.
4. Determine how you will communicate portfolio
results and include it in section IV.C.
3
Investment Plan Assignments
Investments 10: Behavioral Finance
1. There are no assignments for your Investment Plan
from this section. Listen and try to determine
ways Behavioral Finance can help you to be a
better investor.
4
A. Understand Portfolio Rebalancing
 What is portfolio rebalancing?
• The process of bringing portfolios back into given
target asset allocation ratios
 What causes the need to rebalance?
• Changes occur due to:
• Changes in asset class performance
• Changes in investor objectives or risk
• Introduction of new capital
• Introduction of new asset classes
5
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
 Why is this rebalancing so critical?
• There are competing principles:
• Minimize transactions costs and taxes
• Minimize tracking error at your risk tolerance
level
 What is tracking error?
• It is the return that is lost from your portfolio being
different from your target weight
 What are the different ways of rebalancing?
• Periodic-based (or calendar-based)
• Percent-range-based (or volatility-based)
6
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
 Periodic-based rebalancing
• Specify a time period, i.e. bi-annually, annually, etc.
After each time period, rebalance the portfolio back
to your original asset allocation targets
• Advantages
• Most simple of the methods
• Longer periods have lower transactions and tax
costs (but higher tracking error costs)
• Disadvantages
• Independent of market performance
• Performance will depend on relative timing of
large market moves and rebalancing
7
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
 Percent-range-based rebalancing
• Rebalance the portfolio every time actual holdings
are +/-5% (or +/-10%) from target ratios. Rebalance
whenever you are outside this range
• Advantages
• Easy to implement
• Wider ranges will reduce transactions costs (at
the expense of higher tracking error)
• Asset performance will trigger rebalancing
• Disadvantages
• Setting an effective range is difficult
• Assets with higher target ranges and volatility
will generate most rebalances
8
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
• “NMD” (New Money / Donations) Addendum
• Since you pay yourself monthly and are very
careful in your selection of assets, you can combine
the previous strategies with a “New Money /
Donation” strategy
• Rebalance as determined previously. But use
new money to purchase the “underweight”
assets, so you do not have to sell and incur
transactions costs or taxable events
• This way you are not selling assets
• In addition, this strategy helps you to buy
“low,” as you are generally purchasing
underperforming asset classes
9
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
 NMD Addendum (continued)
• Rebalance using appreciated assets for your
charitable contributions (see Learning Tool 8)
• Use the money you would have spent for
contributions to purchase underweight assets
• This way you eliminate your capital
gains taxes for the contributed assets, and
you get the full benefit of the deduction
for your taxes, i.e., you sell without tax
consequences
10
Portfolio Rebalancing (continued)
 Which are the best methods?
• Generally, for most investors with fewer investable
assets, the easiest is likely to be most useable
• Generally, a combination of periodic-based or
percent-range-based rebalancing is most useful
with the NMD addendum
• Review the portfolio annually, but only
rebalance when you are +/- 5% to +/-10%
(or some range) beyond your targets. Then
rebalance back to your targets
• Remember, the goal is to minimize
transactions costs, taxes, and tracking
error costs
11
Questions
• Any questions on portfolio rebalancing?
12
B. Understand the Importance of
Portfolio Management and Evaluation
 What is portfolio management?
• The development, construction, and management of
a portfolio of financial assets to attain an investor’s
specific goals
 What is performance evaluation?
• The process of evaluating a portfolio’s performance
with the goal of understanding the key sources of
return
 Why are these two topics so important?
• Both are complicated subjects and both are critical
to investing
13
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is “active” portfolio management?
• The process of using publicly available data to
actively manage a portfolio in an effort to:
• Beat the benchmark after all transactions costs,
taxes, management, and other fees
• However, you must do this consistently
year-after-year, and not just from luck
• Why is “active” management such a hot topic?
• Management fees for mutual funds which can
consistently outperform their benchmarks are 5-25
times higher than those on passive management (19
basis points versus 250 basis points)
14
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is “passive” portfolio management?
• The process of buying a diversified portfolio which
represents a broad market index (or benchmark)
without any attempt to outperform the market or
pick stocks
 Why is “passive” management such a hot
topic?
• Most active managers fail to outperform their
benchmarks, especially after costs and taxes
• Investors have realized that if you can’t beat
them, join them, so they buy low-cost passive
funds which meet their benchmarks consistently
and minimize taxes
15
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What factors lead to above-benchmark or
excess returns?
• 1. Superior asset allocation
• Shifting assets between a poor-performing asset
class and a better performing asset class, i.e.
between large cap to international or small cap
• 2. Superior stock selection
• Picking sectors, industries, or companies within
a specified benchmark which, as a whole,
outperform the return on the specified
benchmark
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Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is superior asset allocation?
• The process where the investor gains a higher
return than the benchmark from adjusting the
investment portfolio for movements in the market
• The investor shifts among stocks, bonds and
other asset classes based on their expectations
for returns from each of the asset classes
 What are the results?
• Done well, superior asset allocation yields higher
returns with lower risk.
• Done poorly, it yields lower returns, higher
transactions costs, and higher taxes
17
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is superior stock selection?
• The process where the investor builds an investment
portfolio which earns returns in excess of the
benchmark through buying or selling undervalued
stocks, sectors or industries
• The investor shifts among the various securities
of the index in an attempt to buy the securities
with the highest growth potential
 What are the results?
• Done well, superior selection yields higher returns
with lower risk.
• Done poorly, it yields lower returns, high
transactions costs, and high taxes
18
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is portfolio evaluation?
• The process of monitoring financial asset
performance, comparing asset performance to the
relevant benchmarks, and determining how well the
fund is meeting its objectives.
• If the assets are underperforming benchmarks,
the investor may sell underperforming assets and
purchase other assets which would more closely
align asset performance with benchmarks
19
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 Why monitor performance?
• Unless you monitor performance, you will not
know how you are doing in working toward
accomplishing your objectives
• You need to know how every asset you own is
performing, and performing versus its benchmark,
so you can determine how well you are moving
toward your goals
20
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 How do you evaluate performance?
• Calculate:
• 1. The period return on each owned asset
• 2. The period index return for each benchmark
• 3. The difference between the asset return and
benchmark return
• 4. The weight of each asset or portfolio in the
overall portfolio
• 5. The overall portfolio return
• With this information, you can know how each
asset is performing versus its benchmark, and how
well the portfolio is moving toward its objectives
21
Portfolio Management
and Evaluation (continued)
 What is portfolio reporting?
• The process of reviewing portfolio performance
with the necessary participants, i.e. your spouse
• If you are managing your portfolio, you should
report performance to your spouse at least
monthly or quarterly
• If others are helping you manage your portfolio,
they should report performance to you and your
spouse at least quarterly as well.
• Be careful not to do too much buying and selling, as
these incur transactions costs and taxes
22
Questions
 Any questions on the importance of portfolio
management and evaluation?
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C. Calculate Risk-adjusted Performance
 How do you determine whether a portfolio manager is
generating excess returns (i.e., returns above the
manager’s benchmark)?
• Is it only returns?
 Should you also be concerned about risk?
• It is not just returns that matters—they must be
adjusted for risk.
 There are a number of recognized performance
measures available:
• Sharp Index
• Treynor Measure
• Jensen’s Measure
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Risk Adjusted Performance:
Sharpe
 Sharpe Index
• A ratio of your “excess return” divided by your
portfolio standard deviation
rp – rf
sp
• rp = Average return on the portfolio
• sp = Standard deviation of portfolio return
• The Sharpe Index is the portfolio risk premium
divided by portfolio risk as measured by standard
deviation
25
Risk Adjusted Performance:
Treynor
 Treynor Measure
• This is similar to Sharpe but it uses the portfolio
beta instead of the portfolio standard deviation
rp – rf
ßp
rp = Average return on the portfolio
rf = Average risk free rate
ßp = Weighted average b for portfolio
• It is the portfolio risk premium divided by portfolio
risk as measured by beta
26
Risk Adjusted Performance:
Jensen
 Jensen’s Measure
• This is the ratio of your portfolio return less CAPM
determined portfolio return
• ap = rp - [ rf + ßp (rm – rf) ]
ap = Alpha for the portfolio
rp = Average return on the portfolio
ßp = Weighted average Beta
rf = Average risk free rate
rm = Average return on market index port.
• It is portfolio performance less expected portfolio
performance from CAPM
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Risk Adjusted Performance (continued)
 Which measure is most appropriate? Are there some
general guidelines?
• Generally, if the portfolio represents the entire
investment for an individual, the Sharpe Index
compared to the Sharpe Index for the market is best
• If many alternatives are possible, or if this is only
part of the overall portfolio, use the Treynor
measure versus the Treynor measure for the market,
or the Jensen’s a alpha
• Of these two, the Treynor measure is more
complete because it adjusts for risk
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Risk Adjusted Performance (continued)
 Are their limitations of risk adjustment
measures?
• Yes, very much so. The assumptions underlying
measures limit their usefulness
• Know the key assumptions and be careful!
• When the portfolio is being actively managed, basic
stability requirements are not met
• Be careful when portfolios are actively managed
• Practitioners often use benchmark portfolio
comparisons and comparisons to other managers to
measure performance
• This is largely because they are easier
29
Risk Adjusted Performance (continued)
 What about style analysis?
• Another way of obtaining abnormal returns is
chasing style
• Growth versus value—what’s hot?
• You can decompose returns by attributing
allocation to style
• Style tilts and rotation are important active
portfolio strategies
• Style analysis has become increasingly popular
in the industry
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Questions
• Any questions on risk-adjusted performance
measures?
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D. Understand How to Perform
Portfolio Attribution (this is optional)
 What is portfolio attribution?
• The process of separating out portfolio returns into
their related components, generally attributable to
asset allocation and securities selection
 What is the importance of these components?
• These components are related to elements of
portfolio performance, to see what you do well
 What are examples of some of these
components?
• Broad asset allocation
• Industry
Security Choice
Currency
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Portfolio Attribution (continued)
 How do you determine portfolio attribution?
• 1. Set up a weighted ‘benchmark’ which includes
all your chosen asset classes
• Use your chosen benchmark for each asset
class, and use your target asset allocation
weights from your Investment Plan
• 2. Calculate your returns for each of your asset
classes
• Calculated returns for each asset class
• Calculate a weighted return for your overall
portfolio
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Portfolio Attribution (continued)
• 4. Compare your portfolio returns in each asset
class to the benchmark returns of each index
• Use Teaching Tool 17: Portfolio Attribution
Spreadsheet
• 5. Calculate your attribution and make decisions
accordingly
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Portfolio Attribution (continued)
 Why is it important to attribute performance to
the portfolio’s components?
• It can explain the difference in return based on
component weights or selection
• It can summarize the performance differences into
appropriate categories
• It can help you know how you are doing
 What happens if you don’t perform portfolio
attribution?
• You will not know why you are performing as you
are
• You will not know how to improve
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Portfolio Attribution (continued)
 What do you do if your actively managed
funds continue to underperform?
• Watch them carefully. Underperformance for a
month or quarter is understandable, but over 12-36
months it should be positive
• If not, find another fund or index the asset class
performance
 How long does it take to determine whether an
active manager is good or not?
• Generally, 12-36 months
36
Questions
 Any questions on portfolio attribution?
37
Review of Objectives
 A. Do you understand the different types and
uses of indexes?
 B. Do you understand the Importance of
Portfolio Management and Performance
Evaluation?
 C. Do you understand portfolio rebalancing?
 D. Do you understand risk-adjusted
performance measures?
 E. Do you understand how to perform
attribution analysis?
38
Case Study #1
Data
 Steve and Suzie, both 45, are aggressive investors, and
have a portfolio of over $250,000. Their target asset
allocation is 60% equities and 40% bonds and cash which
they have invested in 10 mutual funds. Their actual asset
class weights are different from their targets due to the
out-performance of the equity part of their portfolios.
Asset Class
Actual Weight Target Weight Difference
Equity
70%
60%
10%
Bonds
20%
30%
-10%
Cash
10%
10%
0%
Application: When should they rebalance their portfolio and
how should they do it?
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Case Study #1 Answers
 The decision of when to rebalance should be part of
their investment plan. They need to determine the best
time for them to rebalance, and the most cost effective
means. The key is to minimize transactions costs and
turnover, while maintaining diversification and return.
• One thought is the new money donation (NMD)
strategy where they use new money and donate
appreciated assets to rebalance. Since this change is
due to appreciation of equities, if they will donate
the appreciated equity assets, i.e. donations in kind
to a charity, they can take the money they would
have spent on their charity donations, and purchase
more bonds. (See Teaching Tool 8 – Tithing Share
Transfer Example)
40
Case Study #2
Data
 Steve is reviewing the performance of his largest asset,
the XYZ mutual fund (which is actively managed), for
the most recent sample period. The T-bill rate during
the period was 4%.
Fund XYZ
Market
• Average return
12%
10%
• Beta
1.2
1.0
• Standard Deviation
26%
24%
Calculations and Application
 a. Calculate the following performance measures for
Steve for the fund and the market: Sharpe, Treynor,
and Jensen’s alpha.
 b. On a risk-adjusted basis, did Fund XYZ outperform
the market?
 c. Which risk-adjusted measure should Steve use?
41
Case Study #2 Answers
XYZ Fund
Market
Average return
12.0%
10.0%
Beta
1.2
1.0
Standard Deviation
26.0%
24.0%
T-Bill rate
4.0%
a. Performance measures
Sharpe = (rp – rf )/ sd
• Portfolio (12-4)/26 = .31
• Market (10-4)/24 = .25
Treynor = (rp – rf )/ ßp
• Portfolio (12-4)/1.2 = 6.7
• Market (10-4)/1.0 = 6.0
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Case Study #2 Answers
XYZ Fund
Average return
12.0%
Beta
1.2
Standard Deviation
26.0%
T-Bill rate
4.0%
Market
10.0%
1.0
24.0%
Jensen = rp – [rf + ßp (rm – rf)]
• Portfolio alpha = 12 – [4 + 1.2 (10-4) = 0.8%
• Market alpha = 0
 b. Steve’s XYZ Fund outperformed the market in
terms of all three measures: the Jensen’s alpha,
Treynor measure, and the Sharpe ratio.
43
Case Study #2 Answers
 c. Which measure is most appropriate?
• Generally, if the portfolio represents the entire
investment for an individual, the Sharpe Index
compared to the Sharpe Index for the market is best.
This is not the case here.
• If many alternatives are possible, or if this is only
part of the overall portfolio, use the Treynor
measure versus the Treynor measure for the market,
or the Jensen’s a alpha
• Of these two, the Treynor measure is more
complete because it adjusts better for risk
44
Case Study #3 (optional)
Data:
Steve and Suzie are 45 years old, married, and have a
portfolio with three asset classes. Last quarter they had the
following performance. The equity benchmark is the S&P 500,
bonds the SB Intermediate, and cash is the Lehman Cash
Index. Benchmark weights are their target asset allocation, and
actual weights are different from their target get since they
have not rebalanced lately. They like their current asset class
weights.
Asset Class Actual
Return
Equity
Bonds
Cash
2.0%
1.0%
0.5%
Actual
Weight
70%
20%
10%
Benchmark
Weight
60%
30%
10%
Benchmark
Return
2.5%
1.2%
0.5%
Calculations and Application:
What was their over or underperformance? What was their
contribution to security selection and to asset allocation? How
did they do for the quarter?
45
Case Study #3 Answers
•
•
•
•
•
Asset Class Actual
Return
Equity
2.0%
Bonds
1.0%
Cash
0.5%
Actual Benchmark Benchmark
Weight Weight
Return
.70
.60
2.5%
.20
.30
1.2%
.10
.10
0.5%
a. Steve and Suzie’s quarterly return was (2.0%*.7) +
(1.0*.2) + (.5*.1) or 1.65%. The index return was
(2.5*.6) + (1.2*.3) + (.5*.1) or 1.91%. The difference
between these two returns is their performance. In this
case they underperformed their benchmark by -.26%
for the quarter.
46
Case Study #3 Answers (continued)
b. Their contribution of security selection to relative
performance was -.39%. This is calculated as:
(1)
(2)
(1*2)
Market Diff. Ret. Man. Port. Wgt. Contribution
Equity -0.5%
.70
-0.35%
Bonds -0.2%
.20
-0.04%
Cash
0.0%
.10
0.00%
Contribution of Security Selection -0.39%
(1) Managed fund return less index return (2.0%-2.5%)
(2) Actual weight of the managed portfolio
(1*2) Contribution of asset class security selection to the
portfolio
47
Case Study #3 Answers (continued)
c. Their contribution from asset allocation was .13%.
This is calculated as:
(3)
(4)
(3*4)
Market Excess Weight Index-BM Contribution
Equity 10%
.59%
0.059%
Bonds -10%
-.71%
0.071%
Cash
0%
-1.41%
0.000%
Contribution of Asset Allocation
0.130%
(3) Weight of actively managed fund less benchmark weight (- is
underweight)
(4) Asset class return less total portfolio return (equity is 2.50-1.91
or .59%, bond is 1.20-1.91=-.71)
(3*4) Contribution of the asset class to the total portfolio
48
Case Study #3 Answers (continued)
• Overall comments:
Steve and Suzie’s actively managed portfolio under
performed the benchmark by .26% or 26 basis points
(1.65%-1.91%). This underperformance was a
combination of a -.39% contribution to security
selection and a .13% contribution from asset allocation.
While they did well overweighting (versus their asset
allocation targets) the asset classes that performed well,
they didn’t do as well picking the assets in those asset
classes.
• If this performance continued for 24-36 months, they
should consider indexing the stock selection decision,
i.e. buy index funds, and keep doing what they are
doing with the asset class decision.
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