European Leveraged Loan CDS Trading Morgan Stanley & Co. International Ltd Leveraged LCDS: Introduction Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 2 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Executive Summary • Morgan Stanley has led the development of the European Leveraged Loan CDS market • Leveraged Loan CDS has enabled European bank loan portfolio managers to transfer leveraged loan risk efficiently to investors whilst still remaining a lender of record and retaining crucial client/sponsor relationships • Since launching the business in July 2005, Morgan Stanley has traded approximately $3.5 bn in notional contracts value • More than three dozen investors, both buy- and sell-side, have signed into the Morgan Stanley documentation • Six other European dealers have agreed to use standard documentation that is substantially similar to the document created by Morgan Stanley • We anticipate the launch of the first purely synthetic CLO once the liquidity in the market develops • Morgan Stanley was instrumental in the development of the European Leveraged Loan index product (iTraxx LevX) which launched recently Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 3 Leveraged Loan Asset Class Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 4 Leveraged Loan Asset Class European High Yield Bonds vs. Leveraged Loans High Yield Bonds Leveraged Loans Interest Fixed/Floating Floating Coupon/Margin Unchanged Margin Ratchet (e.g., Leverage) Rated Yes Not usually public Seniority Senior or subordinated Senior Security Unsecured Secured Covenants Incurrence covenants Maintenance covenants Callability Call protections, premiums Not customary Investors Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies Banks, Funds Volatility High Low Recovery Low (~20-50%) High (~60-80%) Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 5 Leveraged Loan Asset Class European Leveraged Loan Capital Structures Type Repayment Maturity (years) Margin (bps) Senior Debt Tranche A Term Loan Amortising 7 225 Tranche B Term Loan Bullet 8 275 Tranche C Term Loan Bullet 9 325 Bullet 7 225 Revolver Other potential senior tranches: Acquisition, Integration, Capex Subordinated Debt Note: 2nd Lien Term Loan Bullet 9-9.5 400-700 Mezzanine(1) Term Loan Bullet 10 9-12% (incl. PIK), plus warrants High Yield Bond(1) Details depend on the Issuer and market conditions at time of issue. More typical for the larger deals (1) Subordinated debt will either comprise mezzanine or a high yield bond, not customary for both Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 6 Leveraged Loan Asset Class Leveraged Structures: Contractual and Structural Subordination US High Yield European High Yield Shareholders Shareholders European Mezzanine Support Package (Guarantees on subordinated basis by operating subsidiaries with fall away provision) Shareholders HY Mezzanine Hold Co Hold Co Senior Facilities HY (2nd Lien over assets) Inter-company loan Intermediate Hold Co Operating Subsidiaries Support Package (incl. guarantees and security) Hold Co Operating Subsidiaries Senior Facilities Senior Facilities (1st Lien over assets) Operating Subsidiaries Support Package (incl. guarantees and security over all assets) Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 7 Leveraged Loan Market Overall New-Issue Leveraged Loan Volume $400B $300B 369 276 262 256 234 246 $200B 179 173 242 196 195 156 131 133 $100B 127 90 123 $0B 33 1999 60 79 2000 2001 40 48 2002 2003 Europe Source: 68 2004 37 2005 1Q06 US S&P LCD Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 8 Leveraged Loan Market Average Contributed Equity to Leveraged Buyouts Equity as a Percent of Total Sources 50% 40% 34% 32% 34%34% 34%35% 1999 2000 2001 37% 32% 34%35% 33%33% 33% 30% 33% 31% 2003 2004 2005 1Q06 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 Europe Source: US S&P LCD Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 9 Leveraged Loan Market Average Leveraged Buyout Purchase Price Multiple 9.00 8.00 8.79 8.31 7.67 7.40 7.56 7.29 7.32 7.06 7.00 8.71 7.57 7.09 6.99 6.81 6.63 6.62 5.99 6.00 5.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 Europe Source: 2003 2004 2005 1Q06 US S&P LCD Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 10 Leveraged Loan Market Moving Up The Capital Structure L+1050 L+950 L+850 L+750 L+650 L+550 L+450 L+350 L+250 EUR HY Loans Source: EUR HY Bonds 06 1Q 05 2Q 04 3Q 03 4Q 03 1Q 02 2Q 01 3Q 00 4Q 00 1Q 99 2Q 98 3Q 97 4Q 1Q 97 L+150 US HY Loans S&P LCD, Morgan Stanley Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 11 Convergence of Markets Institutional Investors’ Share of the Primary Market for Leveraged Loans 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 Europe 2003 2004 2005 LTM 1Q06 US Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 12 Leveraged LCDS: Introduction Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 13 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Benefits to Buyers of Protection Morgan Stanley has developed a trade confirmation for use with European leveraged loans • CDS terminates upon full repayment of underlying loan – No Basis Risk • Ability to hedge the right part of the capital structure – No Recovery Risk Intention is to create a different CDS market for each level of the capital structure: i.e., senior secured, second lien and mezzanine loans • Ability to hedge private leveraged loans • Ability to mitigate risk without risking sponsor / company relationship Users can now mitigate risk on private leveraged loans, without crystallizing losses • Ability to trade out of protection and recover cost of hedge over remaining life of loan • Free up regulatory capital • Ultimately improved liquidity over the cash market Restructuring as a credit event will enable bank loan portfolio managers to efficiently reduce regulatory capital usage Tenor of hedge can be chosen by protection buyer Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 14 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Benefits to Sellers of Protection • Ability to access credits that no longer are trading in the cash market Seller of protection can access credits that no longer actively trade in the secondary market, without the risk of early prepayment • Ability to access private transactions (i.e., that have no public securities) • No prepayment risk – if loan is fully repaid, CDS terminates Seller can choose the currency of exposure, regardless of underlying currency of loan • No margin ratchet concerns • Ability to sell in GBP, USD or EUR, regardless of underlying currency of loan • CLO managers can add more recent transaction exposure to vintage vehicles • Cash settlement option available to Seller only • Capital efficient means of gaining exposure to credits given leveraged nature of product Cash settlement option available to Seller if unable to take delivery of loan on a Credit Event Tenor of exposure can be chosen by Seller of protection Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 15 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Benefits to Buyers and Sellers of Protection More efficient trading and risk/reward transfer through: T + 1 settlement Tax efficient Consent avoidance Fee avoidance Ultimately greater liquidity • Ability to close trades on T + 1 vs. T + 10 (par) vs. T + 20 (distressed) • Ability to choose tenor of credit exposure (1 – 10 years) • Tax efficient means of exposure to credits • Avoids borrower / agent consent issues • Avoids transfer fees Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 16 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Key Features of Trade Confirmation Morgan Stanley has developed the leveraged loan CDS from the standard ISDA form as a baseline The CDS is not linked to any single tranche, rather to a ranking within the capital structure Adjustments were made to accommodate the unique nature of the loan product and to enable the ISDA form to deal with security and ranking • Reference Entity – all obligors • Reference Obligation – Reference Credit Agreement, plus, New Tranches (permits the ability to add tranches, for e.g., in the instance of a recapitalization, provided certain tests are met) • Termination Event – full refinancing of all tranches relating to CDS • Any tranche within credit agreement can be delivered – cheapest to deliver concept • Credit Events: 1) Failure to Pay 2) Bankruptcy 3) Restructuring: Voting rights were added to ensure the Seller had the ability to influence any future creditor decisions - Restrictions apply only if Buyer triggers under Restructuring - Maturity limited to later of Mod Mod R or longest dated tranche before Restructuring - Security diminished in Restructuring causes credit event, but cannot be delivered by Buyer • Physical settlement is the default, however, Seller has cash settlement option if unable to receive physical or unwilling to accept participation Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 17 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market 30 Business Days after NOPS Fixing Date 30 calendar days Notice of Physical Settlement (NOPS) Event Determination Date Protection Buyer must deliver NOPS by the 30th calendar day after the Event Determination Date (NOPS Fixing Date) Voting Rights pass on delivery of NOPS 5 Business Days Physical Settlement Date 5 Business Days Participation Settlement Decision Date Cash Settlement Election Date (Participation) • Protection Buyer notifies Seller of its intention to create a Participation (with elevation rights) OR • Transaction terminates • No time limit to close Participation if so elected Cash Settlement Election Date Seller notifies Buyer of intention to cash settle no later than 5 Business Days after the NOPS Fixing Date Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 18 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Cash Settlement Mechanics Later of (i) 5 Business Days after Cash Settlement Election Date and (ii) 10 Business Days after the NOPS Fixing Date 3 Business Days Cash Settlement Decision Date Cash Settlement Date Valuation Date • Final Price = highest bid • If no firm quotations obtained then Physical Settlement applies Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 19 Differences Between: European & US LCDS and European Bond CDS Reference Entity European Bond CDS European LCDS US LCDS • ABC plc and any Successor • Any borrower/guarantor/ obligor or surety under the credit agreement • ABC plc and any Successor • Successor provisions do not apply Reference Obligation • Typically a Bond • All tranches or facilities under the credit agreement (including new tranches) • Loan of the Designated Priority specified on the Reference Obligation Secured List Obligation • Borrowed Money • Reference Obligation Only • Borrowed Money Credit Event • Bankruptcy • Bankruptcy • Bankruptcy • Failure to Pay • Failure to Pay • Failure to Pay • Modified Modified Restructuring • Modified Modified Restructuring Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 20 Differences Between: European & US LCDS and European Bond CDS European Bond CDS European LCDS US LCDS Deliverable Obligation • Bond or Loan • Not Subordinated • Specified Currency • Not Contingent • Assignable Loan • Consent Required Loan • Transferable • Maximum Maturity: 30 yrs • Not Bearer • Reference Obligation or any obligation of the Reference Entity that is senior to the Reference Obligation and secured on same assets • Loan • Not Subordinated • Specified Currency • Not Contingent • Assignable Loan • Consent Required Loan • Participation Loan • Maximum Maturity: 30 yrs • Syndicated Secured Early Termination • Not Applicable • Trade terminates if all of Reference Obligations are redeemed/repaid • Trade terminates if no Substitute Reference Obligation is identified Excluded Deliverable Obligations • None. Usually the Reference • The Reference Obligation if Obligation is a Deliverable security is released and Obligation materially diminished following a Restructuring credit event exercised by the Buyer • Reference Obligation if it fails the Syndicated Secured or Specified Currency characteristic Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 21 Differences Between: European & US LCDS and European Bond CDS European Bond CDS Physical Settlement European LCDS • Buyer delivers • Buyer delivers Deliverable Deliverable Obligations Obligations with an with an outstanding principal outstanding principal balance balance equal to the Physical equal to the Physical Settlement Settlement Amount Amount • Seller can elect for Cash Settlement to apply in relation to all/part of the Deliverable Obligations US LCDS • Buyer delivers DO with an outstanding principal balance equal to the Physical Settlement Amount • Seller can elect for Cash Settlement to apply if assignment/participation not completed within the required time period • Buyer/Seller may elect settlement at any time in a form which reflects the economics of the trade Delivery Timeline • Notice of Physical Settlement • NOPS must be sent within 30 (“NOPS”) must be sent within calendar days of the Event 30 calendar days of Event Determination Date Determination Date (credit event notice and notice of publicly available information) • NOPS must be sent within 30 calendar days of the Event Determination Date Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 22 Differences Between: European & US LCDS and European Bond CDS European Bond CDS Delivery Timeline (continued) European LCDS • Deliverable Obligations • Deliverable Obligations must be delivered within 30 must be delivered within 30 business days of satisfaction business days of the day that of Conditions to Settlement is 30 calendar days after the (i.e., delivery of NOPS) Event Determination Date US LCDS • Deliverable Obligations must be delivered within 30 business days of satisfaction of Conditions to Settlement Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 23 Leveraged LCDS: Trading Strategies Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 24 Back-of-the envelope Pricing Two possible approaches: • Calculate premium/discount of loan in basis points (i.e., loan trading at 101 = 100bps premium) • Divide premium/discount by number of years to maturity/repayment (i.e., assuming 2yr takeout: 100/2 = 50bps) • Add discount to or subtract premium from spread of underlying loan (i.e., 225 – 50 = 150bps) OR • Assume bond CDS and Loan CDS have same default probability and the recovery rate for LCDS is 70% and for bond CDS is 40% • Spread LCDS/Spread bond CDS = 1-R/1-R (where R is the recovery rate) • 1-70%/1-40% = 30/60 = 0.5 (LCDS spreads should be 0.5 times bond CDS spreads) Source: Morgan Stanley Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 25 Capital Structure Trades and Curve Trades What Views Do You Express in Long/Short Trades? Senior vs. Sub Sub vs. Senior Curve Steepener Curve Flattener Trade Strategies Long 1st Lien vs. Short 2nd Lien Long Unsecured vs. Short 2nd Lien Long 3yr vs. Short 5yr 1st Lien Long 5yr vs. Short 3yr 1st Lien Rationale • Defensive trade, positive carry. • Benefits from rising default probability and wider recovery rate spread • Bullish trade on deleveraging and IPO • Long convexity • LBO-exit play • Assumes average life of LBO ~36mths • Long credit, positive carry but also positive JTD risk Hedge-Ratio • Loss-given-default neutral • Carry-neutral • Carry-neutral • Flat notional Economics • Positive carry • LGD neutral • Flat carry • Flat carry • LGD negative • Positive carry • DV01 long Risks • Sharp deleveraging, IPO • Wide recovery rate differential • Default • Limited spread widening • Debt repayment • Curve steepening Source: Morgan Stanley Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 26 Leveraged Loan CDS: Relative Value Comparing Value Across Capital Structures 1,000bps Spread to 1st Lien Spread to 2nd Lien Unsecured 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 KBW Source: Unity Basell ATU WDAC KDG Rexel Cognis ONO Telenet Grohe Invensys Morgan Stanley Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 27 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 28 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Credits Available to Trade AA Ahold Supermercados Ahlsell Amadeus ATU* Autobar eircom* Eutelsat* EWT Frans Bonhomme Focus* Gala Balta Basell* Gambro Gardena Gerresheimer* Global Garden Grohe* Ineos* Invensys* Brenntag BSN Medical Cognis* Debenhams Debitel Demag Elior Elis ISS* KBW* KDG* Kloeckner Pentaplast* Kwik-Fit Linpac M. Greisheim Man Utd Moeller MTU Friedrich. Multikabel New Look* NTL B’Cast NTL/Telewest Numericable ONO* Ontex Pirelli Cable Rexel* Rockwood Ruhrgas Saga Sanitec SBS Seat* SigmaKalon Smurfit Kappa* Springer/KAP SSP Stabilus Sulo Symrise TDC* TDF Telenet* TMD Friction Travelex TUI* United Biscuits* UPC* Vendex* Vetco Vivarte Waste Recycling* WDAC* Weetabix Wind* Xsys Yell Yellow Brick Road * Public Transactions Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 29 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 30 Leveraged LCDS: Future Developments Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 31 European Leveraged Loan CDS Market Future Developments Once the single-name trading business develops, the market should follow the recent development of the traditional investment grade and HY bond CDS markets • Tradable Senior Secured, Second Lien and Mezzanine iTraxx indexes • Macro hedging instruments for portfolio management • CLO tranche hedging • Synthetic CLO vehicles • Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) • Recovery Trading • First to Default Baskets Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 32 European Leveraged Loan Indexes LevX Indexes The underlying contract will be similar to the single-name contract 1) Trading on a price basis allows for easy inter-dealer assignments and unwinds 2) Index will roll and re-balance March 20 and September 20, in line with other European indexes Physical settlement is initially intended, however, a cash settlement protocol may be adopted in future Lev X – Senior • 35 1st lien credits only Lev X – Subordinated 35 2nd and 3rd lien credits only • Weighting of 2nd and 3rd lien between 40% and 60% • • June 2011 maturity on price-basis with fixed coupon – only premium or discount exchanged • Traded • Zero factor applied to credits refinanced or credits defaulted; coupon paid on remaining • Physical settlement Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 33 Source: Lo es t's Recovery Rate (%) 90 80 H r, Fo C re ab st ea le Pr lth o C d uc ar e, ts M Ph et al ar s m an a d M Br i n oa in dc g as tin R et g Te ai an l le d co M m e di m a un ic a Tr t Bu i on an ild s sp in or g ta an tio d n M a In te du ria st ls C ria he l/M m ica an Ba ls uf nk a in ct g u rin Te an g xt d ile Fi na s an nc Fo d e Fu od rn ,B i t ev ur e ,T ob M a cc is C ce o on lla Le s ne is u m ur ou er e s an Pr d od En uc te ts rta C om in m pu en Au te t rs to m an o d tiv El e ec tro ni cs In su ra nc e tili tie s En e rg D ru y g St or es U ng ,R dg i rm ar ke ts , g, Pa pe Su pe in am G Recovery Trading: Recovery Is Only 40% on Average Recovery Varies a Great Deal Sector to Sector 100 100 Median Minimum 90 Maximum 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Morgan Stanley Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 34 Appendix A European Loan Trading Process Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 35 European High Yield Credit Sales & Trading The Loan Market does not benefit from a central clearinghouse Key trade issues are negotiated on each trade Anatomy of a Trade Bank Debt Credit Default Swap Trade Date (telephone or otherwise) Trade date (telephone or otherwise) Buyer and Seller exchange Confidentiality Letter (if necessary) T Trade Date (telephone or otherwise) T+1 Seller sends: Effective Date, Buyer now protected Confirmation to Buyer Buyer returns Confirmation to Seller Seller sends Confirmation to Buyer Request to Agent for Borrower consent (if required) Credit Documentation to Buyer Standard documentation has been developed by the LMA, but it is not the only method to document a trade Trade settlement process can be drawn out and require close supervision Bond T-x (unless sent prior to the Trade Date) T+2 Buyer returns Confirmation to Seller; Agent sends consent request to Borrower T+3 Seller sends draft Completion Documents to Buyer T+2 - T+7 Buyer's due diligence on Credit Documentation (unless completed prior to Trade Date) T+5 Signing of Completion Documents (subject to any necessary consents) and delivery to Agent (if required) T+7 Borrower's approval of trade (or failure to approve trade) T+10 Settlement Date T+11 Giving of any necessary notices Not earlier than T+1m Settlement Date Date on which any assignment, unwind or upfront fees are made First premium cashflow (for trades not paid for with an upfront fee). Premium is paid quarterly in arrears aligned with the maturity date. First cashflow period long if it would otherwise have been shorter than one month. Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 36 Disclaimer The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated ("Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley does not undertake to advise you of changes in its opinion or information. Morgan Stanley and others associated with it may make markets or specialize in, have positions in and effect transactions in securities or instruments of companies mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Morgan Stanley DW Inc. and/or their affiliates will deal as principal in the securities recommended herein. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Morgan Stanley DW Inc. and/or their affiliates or their employees have or may have a long or short position or holding in the securities, options on securities, or other related investments of issuers mentioned herein. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the investor’s currency, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price of, or income derived from the investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. To our readers in the United Kingdom: This publication has been issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and approved by Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited and/or its affiliates may be providing or may have provided significant advice or investment services, including investment banking services, for any company mentioned in this report. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO PRIVATE CUSTOMERS AS DEFINED BY THE U.K. FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY LIMITED. This publication is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley Japan Limited and in Singapore by Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd. To our readers in Australia: This publication has been issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. 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To our readers in Spain: Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, S.V., S.A., a Morgan Stanley group company, supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV), hereby states that this document has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Certain assumptions may have been made in this analysis which have resulted in any returns detailed herein. No representation is made that any returns indicated will be achieved. Transaction costs (such as commissions) are not included in the calculation of returns. Changes to the assumptions may have a material impact on any returns detailed. Please see additional important disclosures at the end of this report. 37