Future Climate Extremes: Physical and Human Dimensions Claudia Tebaldi Climate Central & NCAR Brian O’Neill NCAR November 13, 2012 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of UCAR-NCAR is strictly prohibited From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) 1 The physical dimension of changing risks: • Climate Extremes • Coastal Flooding The human dimension of changing risks: • Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution • Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions 2 The physical dimension of changing risks: • Climate Extremes • Coastal Flooding The human dimension of changing risks: • Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution • Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions 3 Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes 1) 4 Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes 2) 5 Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes 3) 6 When the shift in mean explains the most: Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low US average, observed Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. GRL 7 When the shift in mean explains the most: Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low US average, observed Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low Long term trend Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. GRL 8 When the shift in mean explains the most: Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low US average, observed Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low Long term trend Confidence interval under the assumption of no long term trend Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. GRL 9 When the shift in mean explains the most: Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low US average, observed US average, CCSM US average, CCSM, Future Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. GRL 10 And just in case you are curious about the past year: US as a whole: 7.6 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-record-temperatures-which-states-led-the-nation-14951 11 When the shift in variance is more relevant: Precipitation extremes Future Changes in Mean Precipitation Future Changes in Precipitation Intensity Green-Blue: Increase in precipitation amounts Pink-Brown: Decrease in precipitation amounts Stippling: Model consensus Meehl et al., 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. GRL Tebaldi et al., 2007: Going to the extremes. Climatic Change Tebaldi et al., 2012: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. GRL 12 Most recent simulation results: NCAR’s CCSM4 under different scenarios Changes in average temperature during the warmest three nights of the year (degrees C) by the end of the century Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. J. of Climate 13 Most recent simulation results: CCSM4 under different scenarios Change in Precipitation Intensity (mm/day) by the end of the century Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. J. of Climate 14 The physical dimension of changing risks: • Climate Extremes • Coastal Flooding The human dimension of changing risks: • Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution • Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions 15 Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise Current 100-year events (meters above Mean High Water) 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 Tebaldi et al. 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Envir. Res. Letters 16 Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise Current Sea Level Rise (1959-2008) (mm/year) -2 – 0 0–2 2–4 4–6 6 – 6.5 17 Future (2008-2050) Sea Level Rise (meters) 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 18 The Battery, NY: Storm Surges (meters above Mean High Water) Sandy’s surge 19 The Battery, NY: Storm Surges (meters above Mean High Water) The 100-yr event becomes the 15-yr event by 2050 20 Future extremes’ changed frequencies Every how many years will today’s 100-year event recur, by 2050? 1 2 5 10 20 30 50 75 100 21 By at most the end of the century 6 ft surges will be happening on average every other year, or more frequently. Terrain inundated by 6ft surges http://sealevel.climatecentral.org Strauss et al., 2012: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States. Envir. Res. Letters 22 From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) 23 The physical dimension of changing risks: • Climate Extremes • Coastal Flooding The human dimension of changing risks: • Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution • Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions 24 Spatial Population Projection: Florida Physical Impact Population Exposure Terrain inundated by 6 ft surges 2000 2100 Jones & O’Neill, in prep. 25 Spatial Population Projection: Florida Population (Millions) 12 High Growth, 2100 10 8 Medium Growth, 2100 6 4 Current 2 0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 100+ Distance from coast (km) 26 Spatial Population Projection: Hurricane Sandy Landfall Area The Battery 2100 2000 27 Spatial Population Projection: National State of the art, 2007 Existing Projection, 2100 Shortcomings: Topography Protected areas Borders Calibration Gruebler et al., 2007. 28 Spatial Population Projection: National NCAR Projection, 2100 Existing Projection, 2100 Jones & O’Neill, in prep. 29 Spatial Population Projection: Global Projected Heat Extremes Projected Population Distribution Gruebler et al., 2007. 30 The physical dimension of changing risks: • Climate Extremes • Coastal Flooding The human dimension of changing risks: • Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution • Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions 31 Vulnerability Index Modeled Outcomes Income Measuring vulnerability Fertility, Population Growth, Age Structure Separate Projections Education Human Development Index Vulnerability Life Expectancy 32 Human Development Index Very High 0.9 0.8 OIC Other Indust. Ctries LAC Lat. Am. & Carrib. CHN China High ODC Other Dev. Ctries 0.7 IND India Medium SSA Sub-Saharan Africa 0.6 0.5 0.4 2010 Low Human Development Index (HDI) 1 2020 2030 2040 2050 O’Neill et al., in prep. 33 Integrated PopulationEconomy-Technology-Science (iPETS) Model EU-27+ Transition Countries USA China India Sub-Sah. Africa Latin America Other Devel. Countries Other Indust. Countries 34 Economic interactions CESM iPETS Climate Risks e.g., Extreme Heat, Drought e.g., Crop Production 35 Economic Interactions: Agricultural impacts iPETS Results, Latin America region: Effect of reduced productivity on land use and food prices Cropland 80% Reduced Productivity 70% 800 600 Price change (%) Million Hectares 1000 Change in Food Price Baseline Scenario 400 60% 50% Increase in Food Price due to Reduced Productivity 40% 30% 20% 200 10% 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0% 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 36 Summary Projecting changes in both physical and human systems is necessary for anticipating future risks from climate change Progress requires closer integration of research on climate science and human systems 37 Acknowledgments NCAR Integrated Science Program DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402 DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program G. Meehl, G. Strand (NCAR); J. Arblaster (NCAR and CSIRO); B. Strauss, D. Adams-Smith, R. Ziemelinski (Climate Central); Chris Zervas (NOAA); Bryan Jones, Xiaolin Ren, Leiwen Jiang (NCAR); Shonali Pachauri, Regina Fuchs, Samir KC (IIASA); Michael Dalton (NOAA); Ed Balistreri (Colorado School of Mines). 38