Post Gu 2011
Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
17th August 2011
Gedo Region
Swiss Agency for Development
and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Normal access in all
districts and livelihoods
except pockets in Elwaq
and Garbaharey
districts, which are the
frontline of the two
warring parties
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and
Income
•
2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa
Pastoralists)
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale of
livestock & livestock products
 Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and
own production
 Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and
sheep/goat
•
2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern agropastoral and Gedo-Bay agropastoral high potential)
 Southern agro-pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of
livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main
sources of food: purchase and own production
 Gedo-Bay agropastoral are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale
of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and
purchases.
•
Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income:
sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production.
Climate
Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance
Overall statement:
The overall performance of the season was
erratic and below normal in most parts of the
region.
•Start of Season: started on time (2nd dekad of
April in most southern parts of the region and Luq
district in the north.
•Temporal and Spatial Distribution: 2-3 days of
rain were received in most parts of the region
with poor intensity and moderate distribution.
•Poor Rains: all livelihoods in Gedo have
received poor rains between 2nd dekad of April
and 3rd dekad of May.
•No Rains: Localized areas of Garbaharey and
Belethawa districts have received no rains.
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term
mean)
Climate
Vegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
•
Increased political confrontation and
military clashes over the last 6 months
•
Increased number of military bases and
road blocks
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food
Security & Nutrition:
• Increased population displacement
towards refugees camps in Kenya and
Ethiopia
• Imposed restrictions on trade
movement in Gedo
• Asset losses, e.g. burning houses and
vehicles.
• Limited pastoral mobility and restricted
access to pasture and water points.
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates
Gu 2011 Production
in MT
Districts
Baardheere
Belet Xaawo
Ceel Waaq
Dolow
Garbahaarey/B
uur Dhuubo
Luuq
Gedo Gu 2011
Total
Total
Cereal
Gu 2011 as
% of Gu
2010
Gu 2011 as Gu 2011 as %
% of Gu
of 5 year
PWA
average
(1995-2010) (2006-2010)
Maize
Sorghum
401
0
401
9%
9%
19%
6
0
6
4%
3%
15%
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
91
0
91
24%
36%
89%
118
0
118
18%
33%
63%
77
0
77
11%
22%
41%
693
0
693
11%
13%
26%
Agriculture
Trends in Regional Gu Cereal Production Trends
25,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
20,000
Gu Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
MT
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Annual Cereal Production by Season
30,000
25,000
Deyr
Gu
Overall PWA
5 year Avrg
MT
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Tomato
Districts
Livelihoo
d Zone
Watermelon
Cowpea
Sesame
Onion
Total (Mt)
Production
(Mt)
Production
(Mt)
Production
(Mt)
Production
(Mt)
Production
(Mt)
Bardere
Riverine
25
10
40
0
600
675
Garbaharey
Riverine
10
5
6
0
240
261
Luuq
Riverine
0
0
15
0
280
295
Beled haawo Riverine
15
0
2
0
0
17
0
4
0
300
304
15
67
0
1,420
1,552
Dolow
Riverine
Total region Riverine
50
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera,
July 2011
Complete crop failure. Habadeer, Baardera,
July 2011
Nursery stage onion crop. Taaganey, Luuq,
July 2011
Harvested palm leaves Surguduud, Dolo,
July 2011
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Local
Cereal Flow
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Regional Trend in
Sorghum Prices
(S.Gedo - Bardhere)
Regional Trend in
Sorghum Prices
(N.Gedo - Luuq)
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Daily Labour Wages
Regional Trend in
Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere)
Factors Influencing Wage
Labour:
• South Gedo: High labour inmigration into riverine areas for
cash crop activities, resulting
in increased competition and
reducing wage rates.
• North Gedo: wage rates
slightly increased in July due to
low supply of labour resulting
from escalated conflict in Luuq
district
Regional Trend in
Daily Labour rate (Luuq)
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in
Daily labor rate /Sorghum
(Bardhere)
Contributing Factors :
• In South: decline of labour
wage rate and increased
sorghum price reducing the
ToT.
• Northern districts: Slight
increase of labour wage rate,
hence slight increase in the
ToT.
Regional Trend in
Daily Labor Rate/Sorghum
(Luuq)
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions, Water and
Livestock Migration Gu 2011
• Below average rangeland conditions
across the region
• Average water conditions, except in
catchment area of Elwaq and
Belethawa.
• Poor livestock body condition for
cattle and goats and average for
camel.
• Abnormal migration: Most of the
camel migrated to Juba, while cattle
migrated to Somali Region of Ethiopia
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Livelihoods
Gedo
Southern
Inland Pastoral
Dawo
pastoral
Southern
Agro-pastoral
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘11)
Camel: low
Camel: low
Cattle: none Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low Sh/goat: none
Camel: low
Camel: low
Cattle: none Cattle/sh/goat:
Sh/goat: low none
Camel: low
Camel: low
Cattle: none Cattle/Sh/goat:
Sh/goat: low none
Expected
Milk
calving/
production
kidding
(Gu ‘11)
Jul – Dec ‘11
very low
very low
very low
Trends in Herd Size Projected in
(Dec ‘11)
Camel: low
Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low
Camel: decreasing trend( Below
Baseline)
Cattle: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below
Baseline)
Camel: low
Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low
Camel: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Cattle: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below
Baseline)
Camel: low
Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low
Camel: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Cattle: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below
Baseline)
Markets
Livestock Prices
Livestock
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade between
local goat/red sorghum
(Bardhere)
Regional Trends in
Local Quality Goat Prices
(Luuq)
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Poor camel condition .Garsaal,
Ceelwaaq, Gedo, July 2011.
Early migration camel to Juba. Irida ,
Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011.
Cattle hand fed. Sarinley, Baardera, Gedo,
July 2011.
Poor water availability. Haadfuul
Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011.
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Gedo: Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rate
80000
SUGAR 1 kg
60000
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
RED RICE 1 kg
40000
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
20000
Prices of most of the import commodities increasing (last six months)
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices:
• Increasing global prices
• Restricted trade movements due to conflicts.
• Increased transport costs between Mogadishu and Gedo due to
increased taxation, road blocks and fuel prices
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-08
Month
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
0
Jun-04
Price per Unit (SoSh)
DIESEL 1 Litre
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Gedo
Nutrition Surveys
(July 11)
Rapid MUAC
Screening (%
<12.5cm %
%<11.5cm)
Health
Information
System
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Gedo Pastoral
GAM =24.7 (21.0 –
28.8) SAM = 7.1 (5.29.7) (FSNAU & partners,
MUAC <12.5 = 24
High and
Increasing number
of acutely
malnourished
children reported in
facilities in pastoral
and agro-pastoral
and riverine
livelihoods
OTP admission show
with high and
increasing number of
severely
malnourished children
admitted in OTP in
the riverine facilities
Junly’11 R=1)
Gedo Riverine
GAM = 48.1 (38.6 –
57.8) and SAM = 25.2
(18.9- 32.9) (FSNAU &
partners, July ‘11, R=1)
Gedo Agro-pastoral
GAM = 51.3 (41.061.5) and SAM= 19.1
(13.6-26.0) (FSNAU &
partners, July’11,
R=1)
MUAC <11.5 = 5
( Source: TROCARE,
AMA, SRCS , HIRDA
HIS Data , Jan-June’11
R=3)
(TROCARE, HIRDA, AMAJan-June’11, R=3)
Other relevant
information –
Key driving
factors
Summary of analysis
and change from Deyr
’10/11
Gedo Pastoral – Very
Critical- No change from
Very Critical phase in
Deyr’10/11 and the
Nutrition situation is likely
to continue deterioration
Gedo Riverine: CriticalNo change from
Deyr’10/11. and the
Nutrition situation is likely
to continue deterioration
Gedo Agro-pastoral
No change from
Deyr’10/11 and the
Nutrition situation is likely
to continue deterioration
GEDO
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of
Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
August 2011
Aggravating factors:




Impact of failed Gu 2011 rains affecting crop and livestock production and resulting in limited access to milk and
poor diet quality in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones
High morbidity (AWD and suspected measles) and poor health seeking behaviors
Limited access to safe water, sanitation and health facilities
Poor infant and young child feeding practices
Mitigating factors



Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral livelihood zone
Increased charcoal burning for income to buy food (but with long-term negative impact on the environment)
Sale of fodder among the riverine communities generating income for food and non-food items
GEDO
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)
Urban Population:
• 75%P in HE; 25%P in AFLC; 25%M in AFLC
Rural Population:
• Southern Agropastoral (100% P-HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M- AFLC)
• Agropastoral High Potential (50% P- Famine; 50%P - HE; 100% M -HE)
• Riverine (100% P – HE; 50% M- HE ;50% M – AFLC)
• Southern Inland Pastoral (25% P-HE; 75% P – AFLC)
• Dawo Pastoral (25%P - HE; 75%P – AFLC)
MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation
Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate
Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100
kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via
asset Stripping)
Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in
AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)
Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in
AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than
reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing
Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or
loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access
GEDO
Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors :
1. Poor Gu 2011 rainfall performance (40-60% of normal) leading to:
 Significantly reduced cereal production (13% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure (riverine
maize 13% of PWA, sorghum 0% of PWA)
 Absence of cereal stocks due to several consecutive seasons of poor crop production/failure
 Poor pasture and water access/availability
 Reduced herd size for all species of livestock, particularly cattle, sheep and goats
 Decrease of livestock reproduction and low milk production
 Low livestock prices mainly due to deteriorated body conditions (June 2011 prices: Camel 72%,
cattle 56% and goats 71% of June 2010 levels in Bardera and Luuq markets)
 Reduced access to saleable animals
 Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade 40% (from 10kg to 4kg daily labor rate to
red sorghum) and 24% (from 100kg in June 2010 -24kg of sorghum/goat in June 2011)
 Abnormal livestock migration and family splitting (towards Juba and Somali Region of Ethiopia)
and reduced milk availability
2. Civil insecurity (military skirmishes since March in the districts of Beled Hawa, Luuq, Garbaharey and
Elwak) resulting in displacements and trade disruption from inland to the border markets;
Mitigating Factors :
 Limited agricultural labour opportunities in the riverine (Dolow , Luuq and Bardhere)
 High holding of camel although below the baseline levels (77% of BL in SIP)
 Cereal supply through cross-border trade with Ethiopia (Dolow) and Kenya (Belet Hawa)
 Improved humanitarian interventions

Social support
Gedo
Rural Population in Crisis by District
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr2010/11
Gedo - Affected Districts
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Gu 2011
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Baardheere
80,628
9,000
0
11,000
31,000
9,000
Belet Xaawo
42,392
11,000
1,000
10,000
9,000
0
Ceel Waaq
15,437
0
0
3,000
1,000
0
Doolow
20,821
5,000
1,000
5,000
5,000
0
Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo
39,771
10,000
1,000
12,000
14,000
0
Luuq
48,027
9,000
1,000
10,000
14,000
0
SUB-TOTAL
247,076
44,000
4,000
51,000
74,000
9,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
48,000
134,000
Gedo
Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gedo Region and Affected
Livelihood Zones
Estimated
Population of
Affected
Livelihood Zones
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral
26,607
9,000
0
0
15,000
9,000
Dawa Pastoral
81,654
27,000
0
23,000
13,000
0
Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine
31,236
2,000
0
8,000
19,000
0
Southern Agro-Pastoral
31,751
6,000
4,000
11,000
23,000
0
Southern Inland Pastoral
75,828
0
0
9,000
4,000
0
247,076
44,000
4,000
51,000
74,000
9,000
SUB-TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
48,000
134,000
Gedo
Urban Population in Crisis
Gu 2011
Deyr 2010/11
UNDP 2005
Total
Population
UNDP 2005
Urban
Population
Baardheere
106,172
Belet Xaawo
Ceel Waaq
Doolow
District
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC
or HE as % of
Urban
population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergenc y (HE)
Total in AFLC or
HE as %of Urban
population
25,544
8,000
3,000
43
5,000
8,000
51
55,989
13,597
3,000
0
22
3,000
4,000
51
19,996
4,559
1,000
0
22
1,000
1,000
44
26,495
5,674
1,000
0
18
1,000
2,000
53
57,023
17,252
5,000
2,000
41
3,000
5,000
46
62,703
14,676
3,000
0
20
3,000
4,000
48
328,378
81,302
21,000
5,000
32
16,000
24,000
49
Gedo
Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo
Luuq
Sub-Total
The End