Post Deyr 10/11
Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
January 2011
Central
Swiss Agency for Development
and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Deyr 2010/11
Seasonal Assessment
Coverage
Field Access and Field Data
Locations
- Partial access in all livelihoods (Addun,
Hawd, Cowpea and Coastal)
- In areas which could not be accessed
by the assessment team, the information
was collected by FSNAU Field Analysts
through teleconferencing with
enumerators and key informants.
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Zones
•
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and
Income
• 3 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Addun, Coastal
Deeh Pastoralists)
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale of
livestock, livestock products, bush product and
kinship support
 Primary sources of food of poor: purchase, and
food aid
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,
sheep/goat
Central Agro pastoral Livelihood: Sheep & Goats, Camel, Cattle (South
Mudug, Galgadud). Farm size is 3-4 Ha and mostly reserved for own fodder
use. Cowpea Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income:
sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales. Main source of
food: purchase and food gifts
Climate
Performance of the Deyr 2010/11Rainfall
Overall Statement: Deyr rainfall has failed completely in most
areas. However, some pockets in Hawd, Addun and Cowpea
Belt received a few days of light showers
• Start of Season: The rains started with a few days of light
showers between 1st and 2nd Dekad of October
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very localized, few days of
showers in early October followed by a long dry spell in the
following period up to the end of the season
Climate
Vegetation Conditions
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
deyr
RFE
CNDVI
70% range
gu
Z-scores
Hobyo Addun Pastoral Standarized Difference From LTA
2010
Years
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Years
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
gu
RFE
CNDVI
70% range
deyr
Z-scores
Dhusamareb Addun Pastoral Standardized Difference From LTA
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
2010
Civil Insecurity
 Civil Security Situation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Continuous
armed
clashes
between
opposing parties;
Resource based conflicts in rural settlements
of Hobyo, Adado and Abudwak;
Security worsened in chronic conflict centers
of Dhusamareb and Guricel and is likely to
spread into new zones;
Increased marine piracy attacks with more
hijackings of cargo ships for ransom
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food
Security & Nutrition
Human death and causalities of active
workforce and displacement
Population displacement
Limited humanitarian access and provision of
humanitarian assistance to people in crisis
Disruption of trade and income earning
activities
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates
Deyr ‘10/11 production in MT
District
Cowpea
Sorghum
Maize
Total
Elbur
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Elder
Harardere
Hobyo
Total..
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Failure of cowpea crop harvest in
Haradere, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Failure of cowpea crop harvest in
Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Sorghum production in Elder, Dec.09
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11
Local Cereal
Flow
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(Sorghum)
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade:
( 5kg of sorghum
/daily wage)
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions
and Livestock Migration,
Deyr 2010/11
•Abnormal migration of livestock to Hawd and
parts of Addun pastoral, whcih have relatively
better pasture and water as a result of near
normal rains in October and good Gu 2010
rains
• Depletion of pasture/water in the Coastal
Deeh, Cowpea Belt and most parts of Addun
•Death of small ruminants in Coastal Deeh,
Cowpea Belt and parts in Addun
• Deteriorating livestock body condition in
Hawd and parts of Addun
Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)
Region
Galgaduud &
south Mudug
Conception
(Deyr ’10/11)
No conceptions
among All
species in All
livelihoods Except
Hawd and parts of
Addun with low
conception rates
Calving/kidding
(Deyr ’10/11)
Cowpea Belt &
Coastal:
Camel: Low to
Medium
Sh/goats:
Medium to Low
Cattle: None to
low
Hawd & Addun:
Camel: None
Sheep/goats:
Medium to High
Milk
production
(Deyr ’10/11)
None to low for
all species in all
livelihoods
Expected calving/
kidding
Livelihoods
Jan – Jun ‘11
Cowpea belt and
Addun
Coastal Deeh:
Pastoral
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Goat/sheep: None
Hawd and Addun:
Camel: Medium
Hawd
Goat/sheep: Low to
Pastoral
None
Cowpea Belt
Livestock species
Camel: Above Baseline. Sustained unchanged between
Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 16% in Jun.
‘11
Sheep/Goats: Slightly above Baseline. Slightly
increased by 4% between Jun – Dec ‘10 but expected to
decrease by 4% till Jun ’11.
Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by 3% between Jun
– Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 13% in Jun. ’11
Sheep/Goats: Near Baseline. Increased by 5% between
Jun – Dec ’10 but sustained unchanged till Jun. ’11
Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun
– Dec ’10 and further decreased by another 9% till Jun
’11
Cattle: Below Baseline. Decreased by 47% between Jun
– Dec ’10 and expected further decline of 8% till Jun ‘11
Sheep/goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 47%
between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected further decline of
14% till Jun ‘11
Coastal Deeh Camel: Below baseline, Decreased by 8% between Jun
– Dec ’10 and is expected slight decline till Jun ‘11
Goat/sheep: Below Baseline. Significantly decreased by
81% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected further
declined by 6% till Jun ’11.
Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in
Goat Local Quality
Prices
(SoSh)
Regional Trend in
Terms of Trade:
local quality
goat/cereal
(50kg of sorghum
per head of goat)
Livestock
Deyr 2010 Assessment Photos
Water trucking, Wisil, Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Water trucking, Herale, Abudwak, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Skinned goat/sheep, Hobyo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Abnormal migration from Mataban, Dusamareb,
Galgadud, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Livestock
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Emaciated Livestock Body Condition,
Haradhere Addun Pastoral, Mudug, Dec. ’10
Weak Pack camel, Gawan village, Hobyo
Mudug, Dec. ‘10
Hand fed Sheep, Eldhere Village, Hobyo,
Mudug, Dec. 10
Livestock Destocking, Dumaye Village,
Haradheere, Mudug, Dec. ‘10
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Central: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
80000
Slight increase in prices for
some of the monitored import
commodities (last six months)
PETROL 1 Litre
Factors Affecting Commercial
Import Prices:
Price per Unit (SoSh)
SUGAR 1 kg
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
60000
RED RICE 1 kg
•Shortage in locally produced
cereal supplies
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER
DOLLAR
40000
• Cessation of food aid
distribution
20000
• Ban on commercial food aid
Month
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
0
• Poor market accessibility due
to poor road infrastructure
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Central
Galgad
Ud &
S.Mudug)
Nutrition Surveys
(July-Dec’10)
Hawd Pastoral
N=593
Rapid MUAC
Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Hawd:
<12.5cm=3.7%
<11.5cm=1.7%
GAM:13.0%&
SAM:2.9%; Oedema:
0.5%,CMR: 0.30/
10,000/day
Health
Information
System Info
Low proportion
but Stable trend
reported
(FSNAU, HIS,
July-Dec10,
‘R=3)
•GAM: 11.0% SAM:
2.5%
•CMR:0.71/10,000/da
y&U5MR:1.91/10,000/
day. FSNAU/
Partners, Nov’10,
R=1).
Cowpea Belt:
No Survey
Coastal Deeh
No Survey
N/A
High OTP in
admission in
Dhusamareeb
July-DEC’10,
SRCS, R=2
•U5MR: 0.62/10.000
(FSNAU/ Partners,
Nov ‘10, R=1).
Addun Pastoral=591
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Addun:
<12.5cm=2.8%
<11.5cm=0.6%
High >15 % and
stable trends
(FSNAU, HIS,
July-Dec
’10,R=3)
N/A
Other relevant information –
Key driving factors
Summary of
analysis and
change from
Gu
Hawd/Addun:
•High morbidity and suboptimal
child feeding is a concern
•Low access to safe water 30.9%
& 61.7% latrine 35.1% &54.3% in
Hawd and Addun respectively.
•low coverage of health
programmes <80
•Insecurity/Displacements
&limited interventions
•Deteriorating FS situation-future
outlook
Hawd –Serious
improvement
from GU’10
Cowpea Coastal Deeh:
•No milk available in Coastal
aarea nd limited availability n
Cowpea.
•Reduced income due lack of
salable animals in coastal
<12.5cm=14.3
%
<11.5cm=3.0%
12.5cm=12.3%
<11.5cm=3.0%
Some mitigating factors
High >15%and
stable trends
High>20 % and
increasing
trends
N/A
• Interventions in Howd/Addun
•Active kinship support
N/A
•Income from livestock sale in
Hawd and Addun – milk after
good Gu
Addun –
Serious
Improved from
post Gu’10
Very Critical
Cowpea Belt:
Likely –
Sustained
Critical – from
post Gu’10
Coastal Deeh
Likely Criticaldeteriorated
from post Gu’10
Serious phase
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Situation Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates Jul 2010
Nutrition Situation Estimates Jan 2011
IPC
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010
MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Hawd: HE Watch – HE 25% Poor, AFLC 75% Poor; Addun: HE
Watch - HE 50% Poor, AFLC 50% Poor; Cowpea belt: HE Watch – HE 100% Poor; AFLC 100%
Middle; Coastal Deeh: HE Watch – 25% Poor are destitute, HE 100% Poor, AFLC: 50% middle;
SIP - HE 75% Poor, AFLC 25% Poor, 50% Middle
•
•
•
•
•
•
Acute malnutrition: Serious in Hawd and Addun; likely Critical in Cowpea Belt and likely sustained
Critical in Cowpea Belt
Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day
Water Access: Average of 6.6 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only)
Destitution/Displacement: Concentrated and increasing (e.g. Galgadud and south Mudug)
Coping: Distress strategies and increasing in Hawd and Addun
Livelihood Assets: Near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of assets in Coastal Deeh and
Cowpea Belt livelihoods
Main Contributing Factors:
 Very poor Deyr rainfall received in most areas
 Limited options for livestock outmigration
 Decline in livestock production & reproduction and decreased conception rates
 Total cowpea crop failure in agropastoral of Central
 Market disruption due to escalating insecurity in the region
 Increased cereal prices
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Affected Regions and District
Galgaduud
South Mudug
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
GU 2010
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Cabudwaaq
32,654
9,000
8,000
8,000
5,000
Cadaado
36,304
12,000
8,000
9,000
7,000
Ceel Buur
66,274
36,000
12,000
27,000
15,000
Ceel Dheer
61,407
24,000
5,000
26,000
16,000
Dhuusamarreeb
74,441
40,000
15,000
26,000
15,000
SUB-TOTAL
271,080
121,000
48,000
96,000
58,000
Gaalkacyo
24,860
9,000
4,000
6,000
4,000
Hobyo
54,438
25,000
8,000
19,000
13,000
Xarardheere
52,157
23,000
6,000
20,000
12,000
SUB-TOTAL
131,455
57,000
18,000
45,000
29,000
GRAND TOTAL
402,535
178,000
66,000
141,000
87,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
244,000
228,000
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zone
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Galgaduud
Estimated Population by
Livelihood Zones
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Addun pastoral
123,218
79,000
17,000
48,000
17,000
Central Agro-Past
60,944
33,000
8,000
34,000
15,000
Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral
41,030
5,000
5,000
8,000
3,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep
20,242
3,000
0
4,000
4,000
Southern Inland Past
7,453
1,000
1,000
2,000
1,000
Destitute pastoralists
18,191
0
17,000
0
18,000
271,080
121,000
48,000
96,000
58,000
Addun pastoral
41,823
34,000
7,000
21,000
7,000
Central Agro-Past
31,750
17,000
4,000
17,000
8,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep
29,257
4,000
0
5,000
6,000
Hawd Pastoral
16,243
2,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
Destitute pastoralists
12,382
0
5,000
0
7,000
Sub-Total
131,455
57,000
18,000
45,000
29,000
GRAND TOTAL
402,535
178,000
66,000
141,000
87,000
SUB-TOTAL
South Mudug
GU 2010
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
244,000
228,000
IPC
Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
District
Acute Food and
Humanitarian Emergency Total in AFLC or HE as %
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
(HE)
of Urban population
Deyr 10/11
Deyr 10/11
Deyr 10/11
Galgaduud
Cabudwaaq
8,413
0
3,000
36
Cadaado
9,326
0
3,000
32
Ceel Buur
12,818
0
4,000
31
Ceel Dheer
11,601
0
4,000
34
Dhuusamarreeb
16,819
0
8,000
48
58,977
0
22,000
37
Gaalkacyo
54,800
19,000
0
35
Hobyo
12,811
3,000
1,000
31
13,386
4,000
1,000
37
80,997
26,000
2,000
35
Sub-Total
South Mudug
Xarardheere
Sub-Total
The End