Post Gu 2011
Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
17th August , 2011
Shabelle Regions
Swiss Agency for Development
and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment
Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Field Access and Coverage in
Shabelle Regions:
•Food Security Field analyst in Lower
Shabelle travelled to all districts for
assessment of crop, livestock and
market conditions.
•Food security Field analyst Middle
Shabelle covered rural areas of Balad,
Jowhar, Cadale and Aden Yabal
districts.
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of
Food and Income:
• Riverine livelihood:
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural
labour, and self employment.
 Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase.
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land
•
•
Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral
Sorghum/cattle)
 Agropastoral Maize/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale,
agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment
(fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food
of poor: own production(maize) and purchase.
 Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop
sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, selfemployment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main
sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase.
Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland Pastoral and South east Pastoralists)
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
 Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: Camel, Sh/goat (SIP), cattle (SEP),
Climate
Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
Overall statement: Performance of Gu rains was poor
in all livelihoods.
•
Start of the season: started late, in 3rd dekad of
April, in most livelihoods of the Shabelle regions
and ended in 3rd of May 2011.
•
Temporal and spatial distribution: localized and
poor distribution with low intensity.
•
Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall(AprilMay) of 0-20% of normal in most areas of Shabelle
regions.
•
Certain area in Lower shabelle (South of Brava &
Wanleweyn) indicate 20-40% of normal
•
Localized areas of Middle Shabelle bordering with
Hiran indicate 120-140% of normal.
•
Hagaa Rains: Along coastal areas of main Lower
Shabelle (Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwarey, Marka,
Qoryoley and Afgoye) average Hagaa started in
late July 2011
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal
(long-term mean)
Climate
Vegetation Conditions
Civil Insecurity
 Civil Security Situation:
• High political tension among TFG and religious
groups in Mogadishu affected Shabelle valley
• Increasing threats and limited humanitarian
space
•The development of security situation of Shabelle
valley is uncertain
 Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
& Nutrition:
•New IDP camp in km 50 managed by Al-Shabab
•Displaced people in the corridor between
Mogadishu and Balad as well as Mogadishu and
Afgoye
•Market disruption mainly in the districts
surrounding Mogadishu
•Restriction of humanitarian intervention negative impact on access to food and basic
services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers)
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates
Districts
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates
Gu 2011 Production in
Gu 2011 as Gu 2011 as
Gu 2011 as
MT
% of Gu % of 5 year
Total Cereal % of Gu
PWA
average
Maize
Sorghum
2010
(1995-2010) (2006-2010)
Adan Yabaal
Balcad
Cadale
Jowhar/Mahaday
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Gu
2011 Total
Districts
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
1,200
560
1,760
20%
37%
41%
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
1,260
350
1,610
13%
15%
21%
2,460
910
3,370
16%
22%
28%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates
Gu 2011 Production in
Gu 2011 as Gu 2011 as
Gu 2011 as
MT
% of Gu % of 5 year
Total Cereal % of Gu
PWA
average
Maize
Sorghum
2010
(1995-2010) (2006-2010)
Afgooye
1,040
300
1,340
10%
12%
16%
Baraawe
500
0
500
19%
37%
51%
Kurtunwaarey
2,800
0
2,800
23%
35%
33%
Marka
5,200
0
5,200
39%
24%
38%
Qoryoley
7,350
0
7,350
61%
60%
77%
Sablale
900
0
900
29%
46%
41%
Wanla Weyne
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Gu
2011 Total
540
4,500
5,040
56%
79%
81%
18,330
4,800
23,130
35%
37%
47%
Agriculture
Cereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
140,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
120,000
Gu 11 Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
100,000
MT
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
60,000
Annual Cereal Production by Season
Deyr
Gu
Overall PWA
5 year Avrg
50,000
Annual Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
MT
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
Cereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
120,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
100,000
Gu 11 Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Annual Cereal Production by Season
180,000
Deyr
Gu
Overall PWA
5 year Avrg
160,000
140,000
120,000
MT
MT
80,000
100,000
Annual Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
Cereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions - Combined
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
140,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
120,000
100,000
MT
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
Regional Contribution of Gu 2011 Cereal Production in
Southern Somalia
Bakol
1%
Bay
20%
Gedo
2%
Hiran
2%
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
2%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
63%
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
9%
Juba Hoose (Lower)
1%
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Middle Shabelle: Cowpea,Sesame, Rice Production Estimates
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Districts
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Adale
60
0
0
60
60
0
Adanyabal
30
0
0
50
40
0
Balad
240
200
0
15
0
0
Jowhar
300
500
4500
10
0
1020
Total
630
700
4500
135
100
1,020
Lower Shabelle: Cowpea, Sesame, Rice Production Estimates
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Districts
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Afgoye
510
60
0
15
0
0
Barawe
90
120
0
0
0
0
Kurtunwarey
150
600
0
25
50
0
1600
100
0
15
0
0
Qorioley
0
150
0
20
47
0
Sablale
0
80
0
15
30
0
Wanlaweyne
40
0
0
0
0
0
2390
1110
0
90
127
Merka
Total
0
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Off-season Maize Estimates(Mt)– Lower Shabelle
District
Maize crop (MT)
Afgoye
425
Baraawe
1,100
Kurtunwarey
525
Marka
810
Qoryoley
400
Sablaale
500
Total
3,760
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Good Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle,
FSNAU, July, 2011
Good Rice Crop. Barey, Jowhar, M. Shabelle,
FSNAU, July, 2011
Good Maize Performance. Idow gudow K/warey,
Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Poor Maize Crop. Malayley,Qorioley,Lower
Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow:
Shabelle regions supply limited maize to
Banadir (Mogadishu), south Galgadud (El
Dheer) and Hiran.
Middle Shabelle supplies some amount
of sorghum to Mogadishu.
Lower Shabelle gets limited amount of
sorghum from Bay.
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Shabelle regions
Trends in Maize Prices:
(Jowhar)
Factors influencing
maize prices:
•Poor maize crop production
in all livelihoods. It is
observed a decreasing trend
of maize prices between June
and July 2011 due to supply
from the current Gu harvest.
•Low maize supply
• High demand for maize due
to crop production failure in
southern Somalia
Trends in Maize Prices:
(Merka, Afgoye and Qorioley)
Agriculture
Labour Rates & Availability
Middle Shabelle (Jowhar)
Factors Influencing Wage
Labour Availability:
• Stable wage rates in M. Shabelle
due to on-going cash-crop activities in
the riverine
• Low agricultural activities during Gu
season due to poor seasonal
performance
• Low labour demand
• Increase of labour wages in Lower
Shabelle in July due to Gu harvest
and Hagaa planting
• Civil insecurity
Lower Shabelle
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Shabelle
Regional Trends in Terms of
Trade: Labor to Maize – M.
Shabelle – Jowhar market
(5 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11
vs 7kg in Jul’10)
Factor Affecting ToT
decline:
• Significant increase
in Maize prices
Regional Trends in Terms of
Trade: Labor to Maize – L.
Shabelle – Afgoye, Merka and
Qoryoley markets
(4 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11
vs 8kg in Jul’10)
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock
Migration in Gu 2011
• Water availability is poor to average in most
agropastoral livelihoods of the two regions
• Average pasture condition in riverine and
Wanlaweyn. Currently, coastal areas of
Lower Shabelle have average pasture
condition as a result of on-going Hagaa
rains. However, poor pasture in key pastoral
and other agropastoral areas of Shabelle
regions.
• Average body condition for camel and poor
for sheep/goats and cattle
• Normal livestock migration for both regions
• Average milk production for camel and slight
decline of milk prices yet higher than in the
last year
Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Livelihoods
M/L
Shabelle
Shabelle Agropastoral
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘11)
Milk production
(Gu ‘11)
Sh/goat: low
Camel: low
Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low
Camel: medium
Cattle: low
Average for
camel
Expected calving/
Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)
kidding
Livestock species
Jul – Dec ‘11
Cattle: low
Sh/goat: low
Camel: low
All Species: decreased trend
Livestock
Trends in Goat Prices
and Terms of Trade - L.Shabelle
Regional Trends in Local
Goat Prices: Lower Shabelle
Factors Influencing
Local Goat prices:
•High supply of livestock
into markets
•Poor livestock body
condition
Regional Trends in Local
Goat Prices: Middle
Shabelle
Livestock
Trends in Terms of Trade – Shabelle Regions
Regional Trends in Livestock
Prices and Terms of Trade:
Lower Shabelle (46 kg/head in
Jul ‘11 vs 138 kg/head in Jul ‘10)
Factors Influencing
TOT (goat to red
sorghum):
• High cereal prices
• Decreased livestock
prices due to poor body
condition and increased
supply on markets.
Regional Trends in Livestock
Prices and Terms of Trade
Middle Shabelle (57 kg/head
in Jul ‘11 vs 115 kg/head in
Jul ’10)
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Shabelle regions
Mixed Livestock Body Condition
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Jowhar, Middle
Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011.
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Cadale, Middle
Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Kurtunwarey,
Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011.
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Shabelle: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
DIESEL 1 Litre
Price per Unit (SoSh)
80000
SUGAR 1 kg
60000
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
RED RICE 1 kg
40000
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
20000
Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)
• Poor crop production and shifting to imported cereals
• Increased fuel prices
• Increased prices on international markets
•Reduced number of vessels due to piracy threat
•Persistent fighting in Mogadishu
•Disruption of main distribution markets in Mogadishu following the conflict.
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-08
Month
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
0
Nutrition: Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(July 11)
Rapid MUAC Screening (%
<12.5cm % < 11.5cm)
Health
Information
System Info
Shabelle
M. Shabelle Riverine
N=746
GAM =19.6 (16.4-23.2)
SAM= 8.2(5.7-11.6)
CMR =1.71 (1.1-3.2)
U5MR= 5.19 (2.96-7.41)
M. Shabelle Riverine
<12.5 GAM= 22.6 (19.7-25.8)
<11.5 SAM = 8.4 (6.7-10.5)
High (>15%)
and stable
trends July-Dec
‘10, consistent
with ‘09 trends
M. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
N=590
GAM =35.3 (24.9-47.3)
SAM =17.1 (10.3-27.1)
CMR =2.28 (1.71-2.86)
U5MR = 6.84 (4.91-8.76)
M. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
<12.5 GAM= 35.3 (24.9-47.3)
<11.5 SAM = 17.1(10.3-27.1)
High (>20%)
and increasing
trends July-Dec
‘10, higher than
‘09 trends
L. Shabelle Riverine
N=804
GAM =28.7 (24.4-33.5)
SAM =14.2 (11.6-17.3)
CMR =5.93 (4.28-7.57)
U5MR = 18.64 (13.05-24.22)
L. Shabelle Riverine
<12.5 GAM= 36.0 (30.3-42.1)
<11.5 SAM = 14.0 (11.3-18.2)
High (>20%)
and stable
trends
L.Shabelle Agro-pastoral
N=799
GAM =40.6 (34.6-46.8)
SAM= 20.9 (16.2-26.5)
CMR =4.21 (2.89-5.53)
U5MR = 12.48 (9.14-15.81)
L. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
<12.5 GAM= 37.8(12.20)
<11.5 SAM = 12.2 (7.7-18.9)
High (>20%)
and increasing
trends
Afgoye IDPs
N=951
GAM =40.7 (34.5-47.2)
SAM =17.7 (13.4-22.9)
CMR= 4.24 (3.17-5.31)
U5MR = 12.47 (9.56-15.38)
Afgoye IDPS
<12.5 GAM= 26.3(20.8-32.5)
<11.5 SAM = 8.8 (6.4-12.0)
Mogadishu IDPs
N=870
GAM =39.4 (32.4-46.9)
SAM =15.3 (11.6-19.8)
CMR= 4.29 (3.22-5.36)
U5MR = 14.09(10.65-17.53)
Mogadishu IDPS
<12.5 GAM= 25.4(21.5-29.7)
<11.5 SAM = 7.50(5.6-9.8)
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant
information – Key
driving factors
Summary of analysis and
change from Deyr 10/11
Overall
Aggravating
Factors:
•Civil insecurity Mogadishu remains
the epicenter
•Limited
Humanitarian space;
displacement
associated with civil
insecurity
•Increasing number
of IDPs moving into
Mogadishu town
•Disease outbreaksAWD, cholera,
measles
•Limited access to
health centers
M. Shabelle Riverine –
Deterioration from likely very
critical to very critical and
situation is likely to
deteriorate further
Overall Mitigating
Factors:
•Limited access to
SF programs
•Social support
L. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
Deterioration from likely very
critical to very critical and
situation is likely to
deteriorate further
M. Shabelle Agrop Deterioration from likely very
critical to very critical and
situation is likely to
deteriorate further
L. Shabelle Riverine –
Deterioration from likely very
critical to very critical and
situation is likely to
deteriorate further
Afgoye IDPs
Situation has remains very
critical in Gu ’11 just as had
been in Deyr 10
High (>20%)
and increasing
trends
Mogadishu IDPS
Very Critical and likely to
deteriorate
Shabelle
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of
Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
August 2011
Aggravating factors:
 Limited food production and high price of food resulting from the drought
 Increased population displacements
 Limited humanitarian space for interventions
 Outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera, measles and whooping cough reported in the region
 Very limited access to health centers in the area
Mitigating factor:
 Access to humanitarian interventions in Mogadishu
 Social support
SHABELLE
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes
Urban Population:
Middle Shabelle: 100% Pand 25% of Middle HE; 75% Middle AFLC
Lower Shabelle: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC
Rural Population
Middle Shabelle
• Riverine (50% P Famine; 50% P HE and 100%M HE)
• Southern Agropastoral (100% P- Famine; 100%M-HE);
• Cowpea (50% P Famine; 50% P - HE and 100% M – HE);
Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P-HE; 50%M-AFLC)
• Coastal (50%P Famine; 50%P-HE and 100% M HE)
Lower Shabelle
• Riverine (100% P Famine; 50%M HE; 50% M AFLC M);
• Southern Agropastoral (Wanlaweyne 100% P in HE; 50%M AFLC; the rest of the districts are
100% P in Famine; 100% M HE);
• Southeast Pastoral (100% P - Famine; 100% M- HE);
• Coastal (100% P Famine; 50% M-HE and 50% M AFLC)
• Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P Famine; 50% M HE and 50% M AFLC)
Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate
Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below
2,100 kcal ppp day ; in HE face severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day, while
those in AFLC lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping
Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres ppp
day -human usage only); AFLC 7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping
Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing);
AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference). AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI >
than reference; increasing)
Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible
depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011
SHABELLE
Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors:
 Poor crop production (L. Shabelle – 37% PWA; M. Shabelle – 22% PWA) resulting from poor Gu
rains in Somalia and upper river catchments, low river levels and poor irrigation infrastructure
(mainly in Middle Shabelle)
 Lack of cereal stocks (poor and lower middle households) as a result of very low cereal
production in Lower Shabelle (Deyr 2010 and Gu 2011) and Middle Shabelle (since Gu 2008)
 High influx of livestock from neighboring regions towards riverine areas exerting pressure on
the limited pasture resources (particularly L. Shabelle)
 Deteriorated livestock (cattle) body condition and limited milk production
 Declined cattle herd size in both regions
 Increased food prices (local and imported commodities) due to low supply of local cereals
 Decrease in livestock prices (30-40% since June ‘10)
 High supply of labour in riverine areas leading to the decline in labour wage rates
 Weak purchasing power: ToT maize and labour (7 to 3kg/wage); ToT goat and maize (135 to
55kg/head) and ToT cattle to maize (565 to 177kg/head)
 Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups in the regions
 Limited humanitarian space
 High IDP concentration in Balad and Afgoye Corridor
Mitigation Factors:
 Expected off-season maize production following Hagaa rains in Lower Shabelle to improve
local cereal availability
 Agricultural labour opportunities from off-season planting in L. Shabelle and cash crop activities in
both regions.
 Below average (75% of PWA) of sorghum production in main sorghum producing district
(Wanlaweyne) of Lower Shabelle
 Cash crop production (sesame, cowpea, rice, citrus, vegetables, banana, etc.)
 Improved access to Mogadishu (for labour and humanitarian aid)
 Social support
SHABELLE
Rural Population in Crisis by District
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Affected Regions and District
M/ Shabelle
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
GU 2011
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitaria
n Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Adan Yabaal
55,717
7,000
7,000
0
40,000
5,000
Balcad/Warsheikh
105,266
22,000
5,000
0
68,000
23,000
Cadale
35,920
5,000
5,000
0
26,000
3,000
Jowhar/Mahaday
222,167
36,000
0
17,000
106,000
46,000
419,070
70,000
17,000
17,000
240,000
77,000
SUB-TOTAL
87,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
334,000
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Affected Regions and District
L/ Shabelle
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
GU 2011
Famine
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Afgooye/Aw Dheegle
178,605
0
0
5,000
83,000
44,000
Baraawe
Kurtunwaarey
Marka
Qoryooley
Sablaale
Wanla Weyn
SUB-TOTAL
42,239
48,019
129,039
111,364
35,044
133,627
677,937
0
0
0
0
0
9,000
9,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,000
4,000
12,000
10,000
2,000
35,000
69,000
18,000
20,000
53,000
46,000
16,000
44,000
280,000
9,000
11,000
37,000
28,000
9,000
0
138,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
9,000
487,000
SHABELLE
Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
M/ Shabelle
Estimated
Population of
Affected
Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitaria
n Emergency
(HE)
Famine
Central Agro-Past
36,695
5,000
5,000
0
25,000
5,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep
93,722
12,000
12,000
0
23,000
6,000
Shabelle Riverine
53,657
11,000
0
0
39,000
11,000
Southern Agro-Past
160,948
42,000
0
0
87,000
55,000
Southern Inland Past
74,048
0
0
17,000
19,000
0
Destitute pastoralists
46,861
0
47,000
0
17,000
240,000
77,000
SUB-TOTAL
419,070
70,000
87,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
L/ Shabelle
Coastal pastoral: goats &
cattle
L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr
Shabelle Riverine
South-East Pastoral
Southern Agro-Past
Southern Inland Past
SUB-TOTAL
Estimated
Population of
Affected
Livelihood Zones
17,000
334,000
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Famine
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
2,534
0
0
0
0
1,000
372,273
115,552
6,884
106,902
73,793
0
0
0
9,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30,000
0
29,000
10,000
187,000
30,000
15,000
37,000
11,000
84,000
45,000
8,000
0
0
677,937
9,000
0
69,000
280,000
138,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
9,000
487,000
SHABELLE
Urban Population in Crisis
District
UNDP
UNDP 2005
2005
Total
Urban
Population
Population
Gu 2011
Deyr 2010-11
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC
Humanitarian Total in AFLC
Emergency
or HE as % of
(HE
Urban
population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC
or HE as % of
Urban
population
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
Adan Yabaal
62,917
7,200
2,000
0
28
0
3,000
42
Balcad
120,434
28,106
6,000
0
21
0
8,000
28
Cadale
46,720
10,800
3,000
0
28
0
4,000
37
Jowhar
218,027
36,844
8,000
0
22
0
11,000
30
Mahaday
51,230
10,246
2,000
0
20
0
3,000
29
Warsheikh
15,573
2,635
1,000
0
38
0
1,000
38
514,901
95,831
22,000
0
23
0
30,000
31
Afgooye
135,012
21,602
2,000
7,000
42
5,000
15,000
93
Aw Dheegle
76,700
11,505
1,000
4,000
43
3,000
8,000
96
Baraawe
57,652
15,413
1,000
4,000
32
0
5,000
32
Kurtunwaarey
55,445
7,426
1,000
2,000
40
0
3,000
40
Marka
192,939
63,900
7,000
22,000
45
0
29,000
45
Qoryooley
134,205
22,841
2,000
6,000
35
0
8,000
35
Sablaale
43,055
8,011
1,000
2,000
37
0
3,000
37
Wanla Weyn
155,643
22,016
2,000
6,000
36
0
8,000
36
850,651
172,714
17,000
53,000
41
8,000
79,000
50
1,365,552
268,545
39,000
53,000
64
8,000
109,000
44
Sub-Total
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
Sub-Total
Grand Total
The End