Risk Management: An Introduction to Financial Engineering

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Chapter 24

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN

INTRODUCTION TO

FINANCIAL ENGINEERING

Chapter Outline

Hedging and Price Volatility

Managing Financial Risk

Forward Contracts

Futures Contracts

Option Contracts

1

Hedging Volatility

Volatility in returns is a measure of risk

Volatility in day-to-day business factors often leads to volatility in cash flows and returns

If a firm can reduce that volatility, it can reduce its business risk

Hedging (immunization) – reducing a firm’s exposure to price or rate fluctuations

2

Managing Financial Risk

Instruments have been developed to hedge the following types of volatility

◦ Interest Rate

◦ Exchange Rate

◦ Commodity Price

Derivative – A financial asset that represents a claim to another asset. It derives its value from that other asset

3

Interest Rate Volatility

Debt is a key component of a firm’s capital structure

Interest rates can fluctuate dramatically in short periods of time

Companies that hedge against changes in interest rates can stabilize borrowing costs

Available tools: forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options

4

Exchange Rate Volatility

Companies that do business internationally are exposed to exchange rate risk

The more volatile the exchange rates, the more difficult it is to predict the firm’s cash flows in its domestic currency

If a firm can manage its exchange rate risk, it can reduce the volatility of its foreign earnings and do a better analysis of future projects

Available tools: forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options

5

Commodity Price Volatility

Most firms face volatility in the costs of materials and in the price that will be received when products are sold

Depending on the commodity, the company may be able to hedge price risk using a variety of tools

This allows companies to make better production decisions and reduce the volatility in cash flows

Available tools (depends on type of commodity): forwards, futures, swaps, futures options, and options

6

The Risk Management Process

Identify the types of price fluctuations that will impact the firm

Some risks may offset each other, so it is important to look at the firm as a portfolio of risks and not just look at each risk separately

Cost of managing the risk relative to the benefit derived

Risk profiles are a useful tool for determining the relative impact of different types of risk

7

Risk Profiles

Basic tool for identifying and measuring exposure to risk

Graph showing the relationship between changes in price versus changes in firm value

8

Risk Profile for a Wheat Grower

9

Risk Profile for a Wheat Buyer

10

Reducing Risk Exposure

Hedging will not normally reduce risk completely

◦ Only price risk can be hedged, not quantity risk

◦ You may not want to reduce risk completely because you miss out on the potential upside as well

11

Timing

Short-run exposure (transactions exposure) – can be hedged

Long-run exposure (economic exposure)

– almost impossible to hedge, requires the firm to be flexible and adapt to permanent changes in the business climate

12

Forward Contracts

A contract where two parties agree on the price of an asset today to be delivered and paid for at some future date

Forward contracts are legally binding on both parties

They can be customized to meet the needs of both parties and can be quite large in size

Because they are negotiated contracts and there is no exchange of cash initially, they are usually limited to large, creditworthy corporations

13

Positions

Long – agrees to buy the asset at the future date (buyer)

Short – agrees to sell the asset at the future date (seller)

14

Payoff profiles for a forward contract

15

Hedging with Forwards

Entering into a forward contract can virtually eliminate the price risk a firm faces

 It does not completely eliminate risk because both parties still face credit risk

Since it eliminates the price risk, it prevents the firm from benefiting if prices move in the company’s favor

The firm also has to spend some time and/or money evaluating the credit risk of the counterparty

Forward contracts are primarily used to hedge exchange rate risk

16

Hedging with forward contracts

17

Futures Contracts

Futures vs. Forwards

Futures contracts trade publicly on organized securities exchange

Require an upfront cash payment called margin

◦ Small relative to the value of the contract

◦ “Marked-to-market” on a daily basis

Clearinghouse guarantees performance on all contracts

The clearinghouse and margin requirements virtually eliminate credit risk

18

Swaps

A long-term agreement between two parties to exchange (or swap) cash flows at specified times based on specified relationships

Can be viewed as a series of forward contracts

Generally limited to large creditworthy institutions or companies

19

Types of Swaps

Interest rate swaps – the net cash flow is exchanged based on interest rates

Currency swaps – two currencies are swapped based on specified exchange rates or foreign vs. domestic interest rates

Commodity swaps – fixed quantities of a specified commodity are exchanged at fixed times in the future

20

Option Contracts

The right, but not the obligation, to buy (or sell) an asset for a set price on or before a specified date

◦ Call – right to buy the asset

◦ Put – right to sell the asset

◦ Specified exercise or strike price

◦ Specified expiration date

21

Seller’s Obligation

Buyer has the right to exercise the option, but the seller is obligated

◦ Call – option writer is obligated to sell the asset if the option is exercised

◦ Put – option writer is obligated to buy the asset if the option is exercised

Option seller can also be called the writer

22

Hedging with Options

Unlike forwards and futures, options allow the buyer to hedge their downside risk, but still participate in upside potential

The buyer pays a premium for this benefit

23

Payoff Profiles: Calls

24

Payoff Profiles: Puts

25

Hedging with Options

26

Hedging Exchange Rate Risk with Options

May use either futures options on currency or straight currency options

Used primarily by corporations that do business overseas

Canadian companies want to hedge against a strengthening dollar (receive fewer dollars when you convert foreign currency back to dollars)

Buy puts (sell calls) on foreign currency

◦ Protected if the value of the foreign currency falls relative to the dollar

◦ Still benefit if the value of the foreign currency increases relative to the dollar

◦ Buying puts is less risky

27

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