Potential Impacts of Climate Change on
the Egyptian Economy
Presented by Mona El Agizy
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt
We Examined
 Water supplies
 Agriculture
 Coastal Resources
 Tourism
 Air Quality
 Biodiversity: Coral
Reefs
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Key Aspects of This Study
 It is a collaboration
 We used estimates of change in:
Water supply
 Crop Yields
 Inundation of Nile Delta


From Egyptian Government and Egyptian Researchers
 We developed estimates of economic impacts
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Scenarios
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Socioeconomic Scenarios: Population
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Socioeconomic Scenarios: Income
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Tourism Projections
Recorded and estimated tourism revenues
(Expenditures – millions EGP)
Extrapolations
(pessimistic/optimistic)
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Climate Change Scenarios
Sources: Elshamy Personal Communication. 2011 on Blue Nile
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Sea Level Rise Scenarios
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Change in Flows into High Aswan Dam
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Results
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Impacts of High Sea Level Rise on Nile Delta
Inundation of Agriculture Lands
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Inundation data supplied by CoRI
Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Nile Delta
Risks to Homes and Roads
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Change in Crop Yields
Based on Results Reported in Egyptian SNC
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Effects on Agriculture Production: 2030
% Change
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Effects on Agriculture Production: 2060
% Change
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Change in Agriculture Annual Welfare 2030
(billions EGP)
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Change in Agriculture Annual Welfare 2060
(billions EGP)
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Effect of Increased Heat Stress in Cairo
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Change and Value of Additional Air
Pollution in Cairo: Particulate Matter
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Estimated Impacts on Tourism
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Summary of Economic Impacts
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Key Economic Impact
2030
GDP
2060
1.6 – 2.4 % GDP 2.1 – 6.0 % GDP
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What is Not Accounted For
 Natural Resource Impacts (outside of corals and
tourism)

Biodiversity
 Other human health effects
 Water resources
 Disease
 Total costs of sea level rise
 Defense costs or all lost property
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt
Concluding Thoughts
 Egypt appears to be facing potentially serious
economic and social risks from climate change
 Reduction in GHGs will reduce risks to some extent
 Particularly of extreme climate change
 Adaptation can ameliorate some of these risks
 Adaptation will be critical
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt
26
PROBLEM
IMPACT
SOLUTION
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Government
27
PROBLEM
Economic
Impact
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt
Policy
Change
Main Key Adaptations
in the Water Sector
 Water Management
 Enhancement of Supplies
 Demand Reduction
 Coastal Resource Protection
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Main Key Adaptations
in the Agriculture Sector
 Optimal Use of on-farm water resources
 Cropping Pattern for Water Management
 Certified Seeds
 Stress tolerant Crop Selection for Climate Conditions
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt
Thank you!
For your attention
Group: Climate Change Leadership in Egypt
www.eeaa.gov.eg/ccrmp
Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt