Adapting the city
Adapting
city
Sir
Richardthe
Leese
Leader of Manchester City Council
Adapting
the city
Michael
Oglesby
Chairman of Bruntwood
Adapting
theRothwell
city
Dame
Nancy
President and Vice Chancellor
of the University of Manchester
Adapting the city
Professor John Handley
University of Manchester
Professor Kevin Anderson
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
VT EcoCities
From rhetoric to reality
Facing the challenges of climate change
Professor Kevin Anderson
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Greater Manchester - Climate Strategy
Core objectives section (pp21-22)
“ Greater Manchester intends to make its contribution to the
targets set in the … UK Low Carbon Transition Plan … [t]his
is the right thing to do as part of the global effort to combat
climate change …”
“ Radical action on carbon emissions is needed in order to
pass a viable and safe climate onto future generations …”
But what do we mean by
“viable and safe” ?
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
‘ To hold the increase in global temperature
below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to
meet this objective consistent with science
and on the basis of equity’
The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan states …
“ to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate
change, average global temperatures must rise
no more than 2°C ”
So for Manchester’s Climate Change Strategy
the mitigation question is clear
What emission reductions give a good chance
of staying below 2°C?
… and for adaptation, in case the global community
fails to mitigate …
What temperatures/climate should Manchester
prepare for?
… but why 2°C ?
2001
Dangerous
2ºC ‘Guardrail’
Acceptable
2001
2009
Is 2°C – dangerous or
extremely dangerous?
Is 1°C the new 2°C?
… sticking with 2°C?
Emission-reduction targets
• UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets
UK’s 80%
reduction in CO2e by
2050
EU 60%-80%
“
2050
Bali 50%
“
2050
• CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
• 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2°C)
• Cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget)
• This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change
- from long term gradual reductions
- to urgent & radical reductions
factor in…
the latest emissions data
what is the scale of the global
‘problem’ we now face?
Things are getting worse!
Global CO2 emission trends?
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% p.a. 2009-2010
(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)
What does:
• This failure to reduce emissions
&
• The latest science on cumulative emissions
• Say about a 2°C emissions reduction pathway?
Early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year
2015 peak
Total greenhouse gas emission pathways
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
2025 peak
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
2020 peak
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e)
2015 peak
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
80
Low DL
Low DH
60
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
40
High DH
20
0
2000
Year
(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
… and for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak)
Even then total
decarbonisation
by ~2035-45
necessary
60
2015 peak Medium DL
2015 peak High DL
2015 peak High DH
Emissions of CO2 alone (GtCO2)
13 of 18 scenarios
‘impossible’
No emission space for
coal, gas, or shale gas
– even with CCS!
2020 peak High DL
50
2020 peak High DH
40
10-20% annual reductions –
even for a high probability of
exceeding 2°C
30
20
10
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
If this all looks too difficult
… what about a 4°C future?
For 4°C & emissions peaking by 2020 a
~ 3.5% p.a. reduction in CO2 from energy is necessary
... & such a reduction rate is achievable
so is aiming for 4°C more realistic?
For 4ºC global mean surface temperature
5ºC - 6ºC global land mean
… & increase ºC on the hottest days of:
6ºC - 8ºC in China
8ºC - 10ºC in Central Europe
10ºC -12ºC in New York
In low latitudes 4ºC gives
up to 40% reduction in maize & rice
as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050
There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with
an organised global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’,
is devastating to the majority of eco-systems & has a high
probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an interim temperature on the
way to a much higher equilibrium level).
Consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
Before despairing …
Have we got the agency to achieve the
unprecedented reductions rates linked
to an outside chance of 2°C ?
To put some numbers on this
non-marginal challenge for energy
• 10% reduction in emissions year on year
• 40% reduction by 2015
• 70%
2020
• 90+%
2030
Impossible?
… is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by
2050-70 less impossible?
Agency
• Equity – a message of hope – perhaps?
• Technology – how far, how fast & how soon?
Little chance of changing polices aimed
at 7 billion
… but how many people need to make the
necessary changes?
Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
run this 3 times
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
- who’s in the 1%?
• Climate scientists
•
Climate journalists & pontificators
•
OECD (& other) academics
•
Anyone who gets on a plane
•
For the UK anyone earning over £30k
Are we sufficiently concerned to
… make or have enforced substantial personal
sacrifices/changes to our lifestyles
NOW ?
Technical AGENCY
– another message of hope
The Electricity system
Light,
Refrign
Electricity
Consumption
Transmission
10
50
54
Demand opportunities dwarf
those from supply in short-term
Powerstation
120
Fuel
Production,
Extraction
&Transport
133
Car efficiency (without rebound)
• UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km)
• EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)
• 2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km;
1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km
• ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km
~50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology
• Reverse recent trends in occupancy ~70% by 2020
To conclude …
Uncomfortable implications of conservative assumptions
If …
•
Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct
•
Industrialising (non-OECD) nations peak emissions by 2025/30
•
There are rapid reductions in deforestation emissions
•
Food emissions halve from today’s values by 2050
•
No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur
& Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved
2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible
4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’ (could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+)
However,
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our
rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise
at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the
challenge we now face.”
Anderson & Bows
Beyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Jan 2011
… & for Manchester, the challenge is:
Mitigation
- a 70% reduction in ‘total’ emissions by 2020
Adaptation - plan for impacts around 4C or more by 2050-70
Thank you
Adapting the city
Adapting the city: preparing for climate
change in Greater Manchester
Professor John Handley
University of Manchester
with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly,
Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak
Presentation outline
• Global and European climate projections
• UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Towards a vulnerability and risk assessment framework
• Recent trends in climate and the climate projections for Greater
Manchester
• Climate change risk and impact assessment
• Building adaptive capacity
• Ways forward and priority actions
Climate zones shift in a +4°C world
Source: New, Liverman and Anderson, 2009
Climate change in Europe: high emissions scenario
Source: EC Green Paper, 2007
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
“Potential climate risks in other parts of the
world are thought to be much greater than
those directly affecting the UK, but could have
a significant indirect impact here. These risks
include effects on global health, political
stability and international supply chains.”
Source: UK CCRA 2012
Climate change adaptation
“…adjustments in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.”
(IPCC 2007)
EcoCities goal: to provide Greater Manchester with its first
blueprint for an integrated climate change adaptation
strategy, based on leading scientific research and extensive
stakeholder engagement.
A framework for climate change risk and
vulnerability assessment in urban areas
Hazards
Trends and Projections
Heat waves
Drought and floods
Precipitation
Sea level rise
Vulnerability
City size and
density
Topography
% of poor
% of GDP
Adaptive
Capacity
Information and
Resources
Institutions and
Governance
A new vulnerability and risk
management paradigm is
emerging as a useful framework
for enabling city decision makers
to adapt to climate change
Source: World Bank 2009; Urban
Climate Change Research Network, 2011
Recent changes and trends in
Greater Manchester’s climate
Annual average daily
mean temperature (°C)
for 1961-1990 and
1971-2000
12
Mean temperature (°C)
11
10
9
8
7
1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Ye ar
Annual average daily
mean temperature for
Greater Manchester,
1914-2006
UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)
• Probabilistic climate change projections
on a 25x25km grid based on three GHG
emissions scenarios
• Weather generator produces hourly and
daily outputs of climate for a specific
location on a 5x5km grid
Climate projections for Greater Manchester
• EcoCities combined both outputs
from UKCP09 by creating a climate
classification for Greater
Manchester on a 5km grid with
climate change projections for the
high emissions scenario for the
2050s
• Detailed outputs are also provided
for the 5km grid square over
central Manchester for 3 scenarios
Climate projections for Greater Manchester
• Climate change projections are shown at three
probability levels:
̵
̵
̵
10% probability level – unlikely to be less than
50% probability level – as likely as not
90% probability level – unlikely to be greater than
Annual mean temperature, 2050s high scenario
Temperature of the warmest day in summer
Number of heatwave events per year in central
Manchester
Number of heatwave events
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Number of cooling degree days per year in
central Manchester
120
Number of days
100
80
60
40
20
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Number of heating degree days per year in
central Manchester
350
Number of days
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Winter mean precipitation
Summer mean precipitation
Number of days with heavy rainfall per year in
central Manchester
10
Number of events
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Potential climate change impacts for business
• Risks of business disruption due to flooding
• Insurance industry: exposure to flood risk
• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of
overheating in workplaces
• Warmer temperatures might increase the region’s appeal as a
tourist destination
• Opportunities to provide adaptation-related products and
services at home and abroad
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
Potential impacts for health and wellbeing
• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of heatrelated death and illness
• Milder winters are projected to result in a major reduction in
the risk of cold-related death and illness
• Casualties due to flooding and the impact of floods on mental
well-being are both projected to increase
• Health problems caused by air pollution may increase
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
Potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure
• Overheating is an increased risk to building occupants
• Energy demands for cooling are likely to increase
• Energy demands for heating are projected to decrease
• Flood risks to buildings and key infrastructure increase
• Damage to road and rail bridges projected to increase
• Sewers projected to fill and surcharge more frequently
• Water resources are projected to become scarcer
• Functionality of green infrastructure could be impaired by drought
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
EcoCities research at three spatial scales
EcoCities carried out research across
three levels of scale:
• Greater Manchester (Example 1)
• Neighbourhood (Example 2)
• Building (Example 3)
Vulnerability of communities to surface water
flooding
Greater
• Past events and future trends suggest increasing
flood risk
• Assessment of the current vulnerability of
communities
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
• Emergency services as adaptive capacity
Hazards
• Future economic development of GM will affect
the vulnerability of communities
• Future land use changes will affect the risk of
surface flooding
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
Adapting The Corridor with green infrastructure
• Increasing occurrence of high
temperatures and heat waves
• City centres are particularly
vulnerable due to UHI
Greater
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
• Green Infrastructure as an
adaptive measure
• Importance of The Corridor
partnership in delivering the
changes
© John McAslan and
Partners, Manchester
Hazards
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
Retrofitting office buildings for higher
temperatures
•
High temperatures are on the increase but cold spells
still require appropriate measures
•
Worker productivity is affected by their thermal comfort
•
Retrofitting physical measures is one solution
•
Adaptive capacity can also be seen in human
expectations and behaviour
•
Greater
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
Hazards
Adaption to climate change needs to address
overheating, enhance human comfort, reduce costs
and help mitigation actions
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
EcoCities – Four degrees of preparation
EcoCities findings are presented
on a website including a spatial
portal, document library, related
research and additional resources
www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk
From blueprint to action...?
• The Greater Manchester Climate Strategy aims to shape Greater
Manchester as a place that radically cuts emissions and secures
growth whilst minimising vulnerability and increasing
resilience to a rapidly changing climate.
• It will strengthen adaptation functions that operate on a subregional / regional scale, e.g. water supply, flood risk
management, transport and green infrastructure
Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020
Meeting the adaptation challenge (1)
Greater Manchester is potentially well-placed to meet the
adaptation challenge because:
1. The frameworks for natural process (watershed and airshed)
are broadly congruent with the administrative geography
of GM;
Source: Greater
Manchester Climate
Strategy 2011-2020
Meeting the adaptation challenge (2)
2. The governance frameworks linking district to district,
and districts to business and the wider community are
substantially in place
3. There is a shared commitment to action on adaptation
through the GM Strategy and GM Climate Strategy
4. Partnership working with the University sector is gaining
strength, e.g. EcoCities
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Priorities for action within next 5 years:
̵
Flood and coastal erosion risk management
̵
Specific aspects of natural ecosystems
̵
Management of water resources, particularly in
areas with increasing water scarcity
̵
Overheating of buildings and other infrastructure
in the urban environment
̵
Risks to health, e.g. from heatwaves and flooding
̵
Economic opportunities, especially to develop
adaptation products and services
Source: UK CCRA 2012
Key actions at conurbation level
Strategic planning
• Green Infrastructure Framework
• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment
• Biodiversity Action Plan
• Climate Vulnerability Assessment?
Emergency planning
• NHS Manchester Heatwave Plan 2010
• The Greater Manchester Resilience Forum
• Greater Manchester Risk Register
• Ensuring a diverse set of responses
are in place to target all
communities?
Taking foward the climate change partnership
• Using EcoCities resources to tackle vulnerability and building
adaptive capacity towards Safeguarding Communities
• Investing for the long-term in our Buildings and
Infrastructure to increase resilience to future extreme
weather events and to complement mitigation strategies
• Keeping the links open between private, public and voluntary
sectors to support the generation of innovative Finance and
Investment mechanisms.
Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust
for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
Adapting the city
Seminar Sessions
Building and Infrastructure
Barbirolli Room
Finance and Investment
Charles Halle Room
Safeguarding Communities
Circle Foyer
Seminar sessions will start in 10 minutes
Coffee will be served in the rooms
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Martyn Hulme
Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission
& Managing Director of Co-operative Estates
Adapting the city
Buildings and infrastructure workshop
EcoCities research summary
Jeremy Carter
Research Fellow, University of Manchester,
School of Environment & Development
Recent trends in GM weather and climate events
Weather/
climate event
Number of recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
Flood
158
41.9
Storm
85
22.5
Cold
63
16.7
Fog
28
7.4
Heat
22
5.8
Drought
8
2.1
Air Quality
7
1.9
Smog
6
1.7
Consequences of weather/climate events in GM
Receptor type
Total number of
recorded consequences
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
consequences
(1945-2008)
Critical infrastructure
155
37.5%
Health and wellbeing
128
31%
Natural environment
56
13.6%
Built environment
54
13.1%
Social and emergency
infrastructure
20
4.8%
Critical infrastructure and the built environment in GM
Weather/
climate event
Critical infrastructure
(1945-2008)
Built environment
(1945-2008)
Number of
events
% of total
events
Number of
events
% of total
events
Floods
61
39.5
18
33.3
Storms
25
16.1
30
55.6
Cold
39
25.2
3
5.7
Fog
16
10.3
0
0
Heat
8
5.2
3
5.7
Drought
6
3.9
0
0
Susceptibility of GM infrastructure to flood risk
• 7% of hazardous substance
instillations in flood zone 3
• 6% of motorway junctions in
flood zone 3
• 5% of fire stations in flood zone 3
• 2.4% educational establishments
in flood zone 3
The EcoCities Spatial Portal
Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and
educational establishments.
Mapping the urban heat island and
residential care homes.
Weather/climate
event
Projections for Greater Manchester
Fluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Pluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Storms (inc. high
winds)
Variable: Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter
gales. More wind storms.
Cold events
Decreasing: Winter temps increasing. Winter night time
minimum temps increasing.
Heat waves (inc.
higher temps)
Increasing: Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night
time and warmest summer day temps.
Air quality (inc. smog) Decreasing: Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics
Drought (inc. fall in
summer rainfall)
Increasing: Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
- Internal and external building
Fluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructure
more winter
damage
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Silting/overtopping of reservoirs - Risk of slope instability
- Landslips on road/rail networks
- Damage to bridges
Pluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructures
more winter
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Treatment of polluted runoff
- Urban drainage capacity
pressure
- Internal and external building
damage
- Increased damp risk in buildings
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
Heat waves (inc
higher
temperature)
Increasing
- Higher energy demand for
cooling
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
Drought (inc less
summer rainfall)
Increasing
- Water supply constraints
- Higher rates of deterioration of
concrete
- Risk of rails buckling and roads
deteriorating
- Internal overheating of some
buildings
- Less water for cooling power
stations
- Impact on water utility
planning and processes
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Less water for building
maintenance
Human comfort in office buildings
• Productivity and health of workers are associated
with thermal comfort in offices
• Level of control over temperature and ventilation
in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health
and productivity.
• Landlord regarded as responsible for physical
building changes, tenants for adjusting
behaviour.
• Behavioural adaptation measures affected by
common reliance on air conditioning and the
variability of tenant companies.
This study used Arup Appraise data
Urban green/blue infrastructure
Artificial wetland
Benefits of green infrastructure
• Reduced surface runoff
• Moderating air temperatures
• Improving air quality
• Protecting and enhancing biodiversity
• Providing recreation space
• Reducing carbon emissions
Green roof
Flood detention basin
Oxford Road: green infrastructure scenarios
High development
4% green space
45
Deep green
34% green space
Maximum surface temperature (°C)
Business as usual
15% green space
High
development
= +5ºC
43
41
39
37
Business
as usual
35
33
31
Deep green
= -6ºC
29
27
25
1961-1990
Current
situation
Business as
usual
Deep green
High
development
Development scenarios for 2050s high
emissions scenario
~21% green space will maintain
surface temperatures at baseline
Greater Manchester – future land use scenarios
Long descent scenario 2050
Upward Spiral scenario 2050
Summary
• Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving
• Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime
in the future
• New developments need to be resilient to future climate change
• Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses
• Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response
• Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside
socio-economic projections.
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust
for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in
developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated.
Particular thanks go to:
Gina Cavan
Angela Connelly
John Handley
Simon Guy
Aleksandra Kazmierczak
Principal sources of data
Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater
Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis
and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of
Manchester.
Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to
climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of
Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater
Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office
buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Mike Kay
Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West
Building & Infrastructure
Mike Kay
Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West
The challenge for the wires
• Decarbonization of generation, of space heating,
and of transport
• Managing more extreme weather
– flooding and wind storms
• Increase in average temperatures
Electricity North West
We serve only the North West of
England and we are based here
We serve approximately 5 million
people at 2.4 million domestic and
industrial locations
£9bn of Network Assets
58,000km of cable
96 bulk supply substations
363 primary substations
34,000 transforming points
Carbon
A doubling of electricity usage by 2050?
Smart grids; smart meters – smart cities
Electric Vehicles
Innovation – Capacity to Customers (C2C) to reduce
the new build capacity needed; make it available
quickly and without digging up the streets
The weather
Electricity North West is defending its critical infrastructure
Significant investment in flood defences
Ambient temperature
Any rise in temperature is bad for electricity networks
Load growth is a much bigger effect, and ambient temperature
rise will be accommodated in our changes overall
http://www.enwl.co.uk
Adapting the city
Water Infrastructure & Climate Change
Chris Matthews
Head of Sustainability, United Utilities
Presentation Overview
• About United Utilities
• What climate change means for water and wastewater service
provision and why this is a business imperative
• Our response – water supply
• Our response – wastewater service
• Engaging with stakeholders – how we all need to work together
About United Utilities
• Operations in the north west of England
• 7 million customers
• 57,000 hectares of catchment land
• Over 40,000 km of distribution mains,
supplying 1950Ml/day water
• Over 72,000km of sewers, 582
Wastewater Treatment Works
Adaptation and water supply
• 2035 estimate is a reduction in available supply of some 10% or
around 180 million litres of water every day
• A combination of less yield and greater customer demand
• Intense rainfall may increase raw water colour increasing
treatment costs
• Flooding on water treatment facilities, interruption to service
Adaptation and wastewater service provision
• Increased incidences of flooding of homes
• Flooding on wastewater treatment facilities, interruption to service
• Water courses could have a lower dissolved oxygen content leading to tighter discharge consent
standards to maintain water quality standards
• Potential for odour generation in warmer conditions and risk of causing nuisance to customers
• Impact on sludge as prolonged wet periods may restrict sludge to land recycling route
• Warmer weather may have a positive effect on biological treatment processes, which operate more
effectively at higher temperatures
Our response – the process
• Adaptation integrated into our Strategic Direction
Statement, company policies and strategies to
develop optimised long-term asset management
plans for the next 25 years. The plans provide the
foundation for assessing the specific actions
required to adapt to climate change risks over the
planning horizon and beyond.
• Climate change data (UKCIP) and assessment of
risk is used in the development of company
strategies, whilst climate change is accounted for in
design, construction and operational activities.
Our response – water supply
• Water Resources Management Plan
• Reduce demand for water (leakage control
and customer efficiency)
• Increase supply of water (small scale new
groundwater resource development and
greater network integration)
• 55 km West-East pipeline to link Lake
District and Welsh sources and enable water
to be moved to those areas most affected by
climate change especially during drought period
• £1.6m investment to manage flood risk at key assets and catchment
land investment
• All in a way that is good value for customers and is sustainable
Our response – wastewater service
•
Increased volumes of storm water exceed sewer capacity
and cause customer flooding.
• Upsizing priority sections of sewer together with
protecting customers’ property
• Improving models of the sewer network
• Engaging with local authorities and the EA on development
of Surface Water Management Plans
• On-going planning to protect wastewater treatment works
at risk from flooding
• Increasing emphasis on demand management approaches
• Sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) analysis
•
Building our way out of the problem on its own will not work and we already have a policy
NOT to routinely upsize the sewer network
•
Working with our customers to determine the level of service/protection that they want/can pay for
Engaging with stakeholders
• Engagement to understand stakeholder priorities and preferences
• Taken into account within our strategic asset planning process.
• Flooding from the sewerage system a symptom of more widespread
problems in an entire drainage system which will often require actions
from other stakeholders as well as United Utilities.
• Support the adoption of a joined-up approach to drainage
management based on the principles of integrated drainage as
outlined in Making Space for Water (Defra, 2005), Future Water
(Defra, 2008), the Pitt Review (Sir Michael Pitt, 2008) and Flood and
Water Management Act (2010).
Key messages
• Sustainable adaptation to climate change will involve partnership
working and behavioural change. We expect the proportion of this
type of work to increase as conventional solutions become
unsustainable.
• Climate change risks to our Water Service are well catered for in our
existing business plans and statutory documents. We already plan for
climate variability in our 25 year business planning horizon.
• There are some long-term risks to our Wastewater Service from
climate change. Current methods to manage these risks are
unsustainable and innovation is needed to manage the issues in the
long term.
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
David Hytch
Information Systems Director,
Transport for Greater Manchester
Transport and Climate Change
• Transport in GM is responsible for 4m tons of CO2
• We recognise the problem
• Now to do something about it
•
Adapting
•
Mitigating
•
Business Continuity
Transport Adapting
Energy
• Green Sourced
• Managed
• Re-useable
Design & Build
• Educate
• BREEAM
• Materials
Transport Mitigation
New and existing infrastructure
• Metrolink
• 5 million fewer car journeys
• Cycling
• Walking
• Roads
• Bus
• Travel Planning
• Freight
• Smart Ticketing
• Cars
• Park & Ride
• Rail
Transport Approach
• Change Behaviour
• Deliver best in class
• Carbon footprint emissions
Transport and Climate Change
Bus
- Hybrid Bus
- Cross City Bus
- Oxford Road Corridor
- LSM busway
Route
- Northern Hub
- HS2 – not speed but capacity local & regional
Transport and Climate Mitigation
Road
-
Predictive Traffic Management
-
Measurement Freight & Bus
-
Incident Management
-
Adaptive signal control
-
Evidence:
-
Eco driving 15%
-
Adaptive cruise control 3-10%
-
Satnav improvements 15%
-
Speed management 20%
-
Adaptive signalling 20%
Transport interventions
Bus
Hybrid Bus
Cross city Bus including Oxford Road Corridor
LSM Busway
Rail
Northern Hub
Electrification
HS2 – not speed but capacity
Transport Interventions
The Informed Traveller
Smart ticketing
Mobile Apps
Trip Planners at home and on the move
In journey updates
Real time is too late
THANK YOU
David Hytch
david.hytch@tfgm.com
0161 244 1023
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Iain Grant
Buildings Management Director, Bruntwood
Building Retrofit
C40 Cities
The Key Issues
• For property owners; the preservation of
asset value and ensuring that buildings are
fit for purpose;
• For occupiers; ensuring that staff
productivity is not impaired and where
possible enhanced
• How do we measure our success
• Adaptation is a here and now issue
The Importance of Time (aka The Commercial Imperative)
Includes the differences between
• Strategy and tangible
implementation
• Short term mitigation and long term
adaptation
• Time horizon over which our
investment plans are predicated
Building Retrofit – the key challenges ?
From 37% of UK emissions in 2009 to zero by 2050;
principally from the existing building stock
Heritage buildings
How do we choose which buildings
to adapt and what happens to those
that we reject ?
Funding
VRF Market
Market Volumes
Kw Cooling Capacity
Installed VRF in Use
VRF Market
Growth of Heat Recovery systems
Cooling
only
12%
Heat
Pump
40%
Heat
Recovery
27%
73%
48%
2000
2011
Why?
• Flexibility
• Efficiency
• Cost
How do we fund ?
Has to be sustainable
Stand alone adaptation doesn’t work financially,
build in to current investment plans
Inclusive rents may be the solution (Green Deal et al)
Ultimately a move away from P & L funded costs to
balance sheet investment
The Opportunities
GM wide strategy
We have a GM wide
Governance Structure
Technology exists today
Large number of organisations keen to become
involved, but haven't yet built an effective coalition for change
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
John Lorimer
Capital Programme Director,
Manchester City Council
Public Sector Building
Retrofit Case Study
Thank You
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Dr Tim Whitley
Associate Director, Arup
Sustainable Building Retrofit
Adaptation and Mitigation
Climate Change Impacts
Lack of resilience
High energy bills
Summer overheating
Customer discomfort
9.0
6 OC
9.67
OC
10.1
OC
Adaptation vs Mitigation and Retrofit
Mitigation
Adaptation
Reduce energy use
Increased summer temperatures
Reduce water use
Increased flood risk
Lower carbon footprint
More extreme weather events
Challenge
Potential increased cooling to cope with increased
summer temperatures vs reducing energy use
Bruntwood– Adaptation and Mitigation
Three packages
Two categories
1. Behavioural
1. Suite related (impact on
customers’ electricity bills)
2.Fabric
3.Services
2.Building related (impact on
service charge energy costs)
Cost-benefit Analysis
Key Intervention examples
Envelope and environmental system strategy
High performance glazing
Solar shading through glazing and blinds
Insulation to roof and spandrel panels
Expose soffits for passive/night time cooling
Install high efficiency ventilation and conditioning systems
Maximise daylight opportunities
Cooling Loads
Façade Mitigation and Adaptation
BCO Guide
2m
Clear double glazing +
internal blind
1m
0.5m
Occupants
Machines
.5
2m
1m
3m
3m
Continuous
glazing
4m
Blind in
ventilated cavity
Spare
Lighting
4m
3m
2m
.
5
20
40
60
1m
High performance 66/34 glazing +
internal blind
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Total Cooling W/m2
(perimeter areas)
Key Intervention examples
Control & monitoring systems
Enhanced BMS, increased controls, smaller zones
Lighting control zones, low energy lighting
Extensive sub-metering and real time displays
Comprehensive behaviour change strategy
Prompt energy conscious behaviour change
Overall Building Carbon savings
Remaining
Customer Saving
Landlord Saving
40-50%
Savings
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Martyn Hulme
Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission
& Managing Director of Co-operative Estates
Adapting the city
Panel Q&A
Chair Jon Lovell
Director of Sustainability, Drivers Jonas Deliotte
Adapting the city
Adapting
city
Sir
Richardthe
Leese
Leader of Manchester City Council
Adapting the city
Adapting the city