Research Fellow, University of Manchester,
School of Environment & Development

Weather/ climate event
Flood
Storm
Cold
Fog
Heat
Drought
Air Quality
Smog
Number of recorded events across GM
(1945-2008)
158
8
7
6
85
63
28
22
% of total recorded events across GM
(1945-2008)
41.9
22.5
16.7
7.4
5.8
2.1
1.9
1.7

Receptor type Total number of recorded consequences
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded consequences
(1945-2008)
Critical infrastructure 155 37.5%
Health and wellbeing
Natural environment
128
56
31%
13.6%
Built environment
Social and emergency infrastructure
54
20
13.1%
4.8%

Weather/ climate event
Floods
Storms
Cold
Fog
Heat
Drought
Critical infrastructure
(1945-2008)
Number of events
61
% of total events
39.5
25
39
16
8
6
16.1
25.2
10.3
5.2
3.9
Built environment
(1945-2008)
Number of events
18
% of total events
33.3
30
3
0
3
0
55.6
5.7
0
5.7
0

•
7% of hazardous substance instillations in flood zone 3
•
6% of motorway junctions in flood zone 3
•
5% of fire stations in flood zone 3
•
2.4% educational establishments in flood zone 3

Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and educational establishments.
Mapping the urban heat island and residential care homes.

Weather/climate event
Fluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall)
Projections for Greater Manchester
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall events.
Pluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall)
Storms (inc. high winds)
Cold events
Heat waves (inc. higher temps)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall events.
Variable: Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter gales. More wind storms.
Decreasing: Winter temps increasing. Winter night time minimum temps increasing.
Increasing: Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night time and warmest summer day temps.
Air quality (inc. smog) Decreasing: Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics
Drought (inc. fall in summer rainfall)
Increasing: Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.

Weather/ climate event projections
Implications for critical infrastructure
Fluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall)
Increasing
- Damage to infrastructure
- Service disruption
- Silting/overtopping of reservoirs
- Landslips on road/rail networks
- Damage to bridges
Pluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall)
Increasing
- Damage to infrastructures
- Service disruption
- Treatment of polluted runoff
- Urban drainage capacity pressure
Implications for the built environment
- Internal and external building damage
- Risk of slope instability
- Internal and external building damage
- Increased damp risk in buildings

Weather/ climate event projections
Heat waves (inc higher temperature)
Increasing
Drought (inc less summer rainfall)
Increasing
Implications for critical infrastructure
Implications for the built environment
- Higher energy demand for cooling
- Water supply constraints
- Risk of rails buckling and roads deteriorating
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Higher rates of deterioration of concrete
- Internal overheating of some buildings
- Less water for cooling power stations
- Impact on water utility planning and processes
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Less water for building maintenance

• Productivity and health of workers are associated with thermal comfort in offices
• Level of control over temperature and ventilation in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health and productivity.
• Landlord regarded as responsible for physical building changes, tenants for adjusting behaviour.
• Behavioural adaptation measures affected by common reliance on air conditioning and the variability of tenant companies.
This study used Arup Appraise data

Benefits of green infrastructure
• Reduced surface runoff
• Moderating air temperatures
• Improving air quality
• Protecting and enhancing biodiversity
• Providing recreation space
• Reducing carbon emissions
Artificial wetland
Green roof Flood detention basin

Business as usual
15% green space
High development
4% green space
45
43
41
39
37
Deep green
34% green space
35
33
31
29
27
25
1961-1990
Current situation
Business as usual
Deep green High development
Development scenarios for 2050s high emissions scenario
High development
= +5ºC
Business as usual
Deep green
= -6ºC
~21% green space will maintain surface temperatures at baseline

Long descent scenario 2050 Upward Spiral scenario 2050

• Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving
• Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime in the future
• New developments need to be resilient to future climate change
• Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses
• Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response
• Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside socio-economic projections.

Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated.
Particular thanks go to:
Gina Cavan
Angela Connelly
John Handley
Simon Guy
Aleksandra Kazmierczak

Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater
Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis
and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of
Manchester.
Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to
climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of
Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater
Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office
buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.