Physician Shortages
Prepared by:
Shaheena Patierno, MSIII
SUNY Upstate Medical University
Current Forecasts
• By the year 2020, there will be a shortage of
between 85,000 and 96,000 physicians.
• Population factors will aggravate this problem
over the next 12 years:
– U.S. population to grow by 50 million people (18%
growth)
– Geriatric population to grow from 35 million to 54
million people
Shortage in ER Physicians
• Lack of ER Physicians
• Lack of board certified and residency trained
– 38% of currently practicing ER docs are neither
• Workforce Study (2008)
– 12 years of constant growth
– No attrition
– Needed to reach saturation
Shortage in Primary Care Physicians
• Currently, 38% of the physician workforce
practice primary care medicine
– Ideal percentage hypothesized to be 50% by ACGME
– Patients turn to ERs when they cannot get access
• Fewer U.S. medical school graduates choosing
primary care
Factors Causing Shortage in
Primary Care Physicians
• Disparity in incomes
– Lower total reimbursement
– Medicare’s reimbursement guidelines are not as
favorable to primary care
• Other factors
– Burden of numerous patients
– Business of the practice
– On-call obligations are more onerous
Uneven Distribution of Providers
• Rural areas have a smaller ratio of doctors to people
– Metropolitan ratio of 262 physicians per 100,000 people
– Rural areas (<50,000 people) is 92.5 physicians per
100,000
– Areas with less than 10,000, is 72 physicians per 100,000
• 21% of U.S. population lives in rural areas
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Only 12% of ER physicians choose to practice there
Uneven distribution primarily due to location of residencies
Most practice where their residency program trained them
Most residency programs are located in urban areas
Possible Solutions
• Increase the number of physicians in
production annually.
• Increase incentives for entering primary
care.
• Optimize distribution of physicians.
Conclusion
• Severe physician workforce shortages
• Incentives needed to encourage
Emergency Medicine and Primary Care
• Better physicians distribution needed
References
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