CHAPTER 16 Managing Bond Portfolios Investments, 8th edition Bodie, Kane and Marcus Slides by Susan Hine McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Bond Pricing Relationships • Inverse relationship between price and yield • An increase in a bond’s yield to maturity results in a smaller price decline than the gain associated with a decrease in yield • Long-term bonds tend to be more price sensitive than short-term bonds 16-2 Figure 16.1 Change in Bond Price as a Function of Change in Yield to Maturity 16-3 Bond Pricing Relationships Continued • As maturity increases, price sensitivity increases at a decreasing rate • Price sensitivity is inversely related to a bond’s coupon rate • Price sensitivity is inversely related to the yield to maturity at which the bond is selling 16-4 Table 16.1 Prices of 8% Coupon Bond (Coupons Paid Semiannually) 16-5 Table 16.2 Prices of Zero-Coupon Bond (Semiannually Compounding) 16-6 Duration • A measure of the effective maturity of a bond • The weighted average of the times until each payment is received, with the weights proportional to the present value of the payment • Duration is shorter than maturity for all bonds except zero coupon bonds • Duration is equal to maturity for zero coupon bonds 16-7 Duration: Calculation wt CF t (1 y ) t Price T D t wt t 1 CFt Cash Flow for period t 16-8 Spreadsheet 16.1 Calculating the Duration of Two Bonds 16-9 Duration/Price Relationship Price change is proportional to duration and not to maturity (1 y ) P Dx P 1 y D* = modified duration P D * y P 16-10 Rules for Duration Rule 1 The duration of a zero-coupon bond equals its time to maturity Rule 2 Holding maturity constant, a bond’s duration is higher when the coupon rate is lower Rule 3 Holding the coupon rate constant, a bond’s duration generally increases with its time to maturity Rule 4 Holding other factors constant, the duration of a coupon bond is higher when the bond’s yield to maturity is lower Rules 5 The duration of a level perpetuity is equal to: (1+y) / y 16-11 Figure 16.2 Bond Duration versus Bond Maturity 16-12 Table 16.3 Bond Durations (Yield to Maturity = 8% APR; Semiannual Coupons) 16-13 Convexity • The relationship between bond prices and yields is not linear • Duration rule is a good approximation for only small changes in bond yields 16-14 Figure 16.3 Bond Price Convexity: 30Year Maturity, 8% Coupon; Initial Yield to Maturity = 8% 16-15 Correction for Convexity 1 Convexity P (1 y ) 2 CFt 2 (1 y )t (t t ) t 1 n Correction for Convexity: P D y 1 [Convexity (y ) 2 ] 2 P 16-16 Figure 16.4 Convexity of Two Bonds 16-17 Callable Bonds • As rates fall, there is a ceiling on possible prices – The bond cannot be worth more than its call price • Negative convexity • Use effective duration: P / P Effective Duration = r 16-18 Figure 16.5 Price –Yield Curve for a Callable Bond 16-19 Mortgage-Backed Securities • Among the most successful examples of financial engineering • Subject to negative convexity • Often sell for more than their principal balance – Homeowners do not refinance their loans as soon as interest rates drop 16-20 Figure 16.6 Price -Yield Curve for a Mortgage-Backed Security 16-21 Mortgage-Backed Securities Continued • They have given rise to many derivatives including the CMO (collateralized mortgage obligation) – Use of tranches 16-22 Figure 16.7 Panel A: Cash Flows to Whole Mortgage Pool; Panels B–D Cash Flows to Three Tranches 16-23 Passive Management • Bond-Index Funds • Immunization of interest rate risk: – Net worth immunization Duration of assets = Duration of liabilities – Target date immunization Holding Period matches Duration 16-24 Figure 16.8 Stratification of Bonds into Cells 16-25 Table 16.4 Terminal value of a Bond Portfolio After 5 Years (All Proceeds Reinvested) 16-26 Figure 16.9 Growth of Invested Funds 16-27 Figure 16.10 Immunization 16-28 Table 16.5 Market Value Balance Sheet 16-29 Cash Flow Matching and Dedication • Automatically immunize the portfolio from interest rate movement – Cash flow and obligation exactly offset each other • i.e. Zero-coupon bond • Not widely used because of constraints associated with bond choices • Sometimes it simply is not possible to do 16-30 Active Management: Swapping Strategies • • • • • Substitution swap Intermarket swap Rate anticipation swap Pure yield pickup Tax swap 16-31 Horizon Analysis • Select a particular holding period and predict the yield curve at end of period • Given a bond’s time to maturity at the end of the holding period – Its yield can be read from the predicted yield curve and the end-of-period price can be calculated 16-32 Contingent Immunization • A combination of active and passive management • The strategy involves active management with a floor rate of return • As long as the rate earned exceeds the floor, the portfolio is actively managed • Once the floor rate or trigger rate is reached, the portfolio is immunized 16-33 Figure 16.11 Contingent Immunization 16-34