University of Hohenheim Chair of Banking and Financial Services Portfolio Management Summer Term 2011 Exercise 1: Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory Prof. Dr. Hans-Peter Burghof / Katharina Nau Slides: c/o Marion Schulz/ Robert Härtl Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory Exercise 1 Question 1 Question 1 An investor is supposed to set up a portfolio including share 1 and 2. It is E(r1) = 1 = 0,2 the expected return of share 1 and E(r2) = 2= 0,3 the expected return of share 2. Moreover, it is var(r1) = 12 = 0,04, var(r2) = 22 = 0,08 and cov(r1,r2) = 12 = 0,02. a) Calculate the minimal variance portfolio for a given expected portfolio return of μ P a) 25% . What is the variance and the expected value of this portfolio? Determine the equation of the efficient frontier that can be calculated as the combination of both shares. b) Which efficient portfolio should an utility-maximizing investor with a preference function of (, ) 1,25 0,75( 2 2 ) realize? Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 1 Solution Question 1 Part a) Expected portfolio value: p x1 1 x 2 2 x1 1 (1 x1 ) 2 0,1 x1 0,3 Calculation of the portfolio weights: p 0,25 0,1 x1 0,3 x1 0,5 x 2 0,5 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 2 Solution Question 1 Part b) Calculation of the portfolio variance: N N x i x jσij 2 p i 1 j1 2p x12 12 x 22 22 2 x1 x 2 1, 2 2p,x1 0,5 0,04 Standard deviation: p, x1 0,5 2p, x1 0,5 0,2 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 3 Solution Question 1 Part c) What is the expected value depending on the given variance? p (2p ) p 0,1 x1 0,3 Calculation of x1: 2p x12 12 x 22 22 2 x1 x 2 1, 2 2p x12 12 (1 x1 ) 2 22 2 x1 (1 x1 ) 1, 2 2p 0,08x12 0,12x1 0,08 c1) x11, 2 0,12 0,122 4 0,08 (0,08 p2 ) 2 0,08 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 0,12 0,0112 0,32 p2 0,16 4 Solution Question 1 Part c) p2 2 x1 12 2 (1 x1 ) 22 2 (1 2 x1 ) 1, 2 0 x1 22 1, 2 x1 2 0,75 2 1 2 2 1, 2 Thus, on the efficient frontier we receive: x1 0,75 This means a reduction of equation c1) to: x1 0,12 0,0112 0,32 2p 0,16 Accordingly, the equation of the efficient frontier is: p 0,1 0,12 0,0112 0,32 2p 0,16 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 0,3 0,225 0,0112 0,32 2p 1,6 5 Solution Question 1 Part d) Utility function: (, ) 1,25 0,75(2 2 ) Maximization: p p p p2 1,25 0,75 2 p 0,75 0 x1 x1 x1 x1 p 0,1 x1 0,3 2p 0,08x12 0,12 x1 0,08 p 2p x1 0,1 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 x1 0,16 x1 0,12 6 Solution Question 1 Part d) p x1 0,125 0,15 (0,1 x1 0,3) 0,75 (0,16 x1 0,12) 0 0,135 x1 0,01 0 Utility maximizing portfolio: x1 2 27 0, 074 p 0,2926 2p 0,0716 p 0,2675 p 0,2478 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 7 Solution Question 1 Graphical solution for question 1 μP 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 σP 8 Continuation of Question 1 Stock’s portfolio risks: PR i cov(ri ,rp ) σP σiσPρiP σiρiP σP Firstly, the cov(ri, rp) must be calculated: i,p E(ri ri ) (rp rp ) E[(ri ri ) (( x1 r1 x 2 r2 ) ( x1 r1 x 2 r2 )] rp 1,p E[(r1 r1 ) ((x1 r1 x1 r1 ) ( x 2 r2 x 2 r2 )] rp E[ x1 (r1 r1 )2 ] E[ x 2 (r1 r1 ) (r2 r2 )] 1,p x1 12 x 2 1,2 2,p x 2 22 x1 1,2 In the numerical example of part a) 1,p 0,03 2,p 0,05 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 9 Continuation of Question 1 Stock’s portfolio risks: PR i cov(ri ,rp ) PR 1 σP 0,03 0,15 0,04 0,05 PR 2 0,25 0,04 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 10 Question 2 Question 2 In addition to stock 1 and 2 with E(r1)=1=0,2, E(r2)= 2=0,3, var(r1)= 12=0,04, var(r2)= 22 =0,08 and cov(r1,r2)=12=0,02, now there is a capital market providing the opportunity to invest and raise unlimited capital at a risk-free interest rate of rf = 0,1. a) Calculate the minimal variance portfolio for an expected value of the portfolio return of μ P 25% . What is the variance of this portfolio? b) Calculate the variance and expected value of the tangential portfolio. c) Find out the equation for the efficient frontier, which can be calculated by combining both stocks and the risk-free investment. d) How high are the portfolio-risks of stock 1 and 2 in the portfolio selected in a)? How does they correspond to each other? e) Which of the efficient portfolios should a utility-maximizing investor with a preference function of (, ) 1,25 0,75( ) realize? 2 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 2 11 Solution Question 2 Part a) L p2 [ x11 x2 2 (1 - x1 - x2 )rf - 0,25] p2 x12 12 x22 22 2 x1 x2 1, 2 L 0,04x12 0,08x22 0,04x1 x2 [0,1x1 0,2 x 2 -0,15] L 1.) 0,08x1 0,04x2 0,1 0 x1 0,8x1 0,4x2 δL 2.) 0,16x2 0,04x1 0,2 λ 0 δx2 0,2x1 0,8x2 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 12 Solution Question 2 Part a) (1) (2) - 0,8x1 0,4 x2 0,2 x1 0,8x2 2 x1 = x 2 3 L 3.) 0,1x1 0,2 x2 - 0,15 0 2 x 2 + 0,2x 2 = 0,15 30 x1 0,375 x2 0,5625 y 0,0625 p2 0,3752 * 0,04 0,56252 * 0,08 2 * 0,375* 0,5625* 0,02 p2 0,039375 p ≈ 0,1984 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 13 Solution Question 2 Part a) Tangential Portfolio From Example 1c) Efficient frontier: μp = 0,225+ - 0,0112+ 0,32σ p2 1,6 Slope of the efficient frontier in T: δμT 1 1 1 = * * * 0,64σ T 2 δσT 1,6 2 - 0,0112+ 0,32σ T T 0,2 * T T - 0,0112 0,32T2 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 14 Solution Question 2 Part b) Slope of the capital-market-line: μT -rf σT - 0,0112 0,32 T2 0,225 - 0,1 1,6 T - 0,0112+ 0,32σ T2 0,125+ 1,6 = σT Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 15 Solution Question 2 Part b) δμT μT - r = δσT σT 0,2 T - 0,0112 0,32 2 T - 0,0112 0,32 T2 0,125 1,6 T 2 0 , 0112 + 0 , 32 σ T 0,2σ T2 = 0,125 - 0,0112+ 0,32σ T2 + 1,6 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 16 Solution Question 2 Part b) 0,0562 = -0,0112+ 0,32σT2 σ = 0,0448 2 T σT = 0,0448 ≈ 0,21166 - 0,0112+ 0,32* 0,0448 μT = 0,225+ = 0,26 1,6 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 17 Solution Question 2 Part b) 2. Approach Structure of the tangential portfolio: x1 23 x2 whereas the tangential portfolio only includes stock 1 and stock 2 and there is no risk-free investment or borrowing: x1 x2 1 2 3 x2 x2 1 x1 0,4 T 0,26 x2 0,6 σ T2 = 0,0448 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 18 Solution Question 2 Part c) Efficient frontier: T 0,26 p T (1 - )rf T2 0,0448 p ( T - rf ) rf T - rf p rf * p T 0,16 μp = 0,1 + * σp 0,0448 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 p2 2 * T2 p T T - r f p r f * p T 19 Solution Question 2 Part c) Comparison with the results of part 2a) μp = 0,25 0,16 0,25 = 0,1 + * σp 0,0448 σ p ≈ 0,1984 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 20 Solution Question 2 Part d) Portfolio risks: P Ri = σ i,p σp From Exercise 1: 1, p x1 12 x2 1, 2 x3 1,r f 0 2, p x2 22 x1 1, 2 x3 2,r f 0 1, p 0,02625 2, p 0,0525 PR1 ≈ 0,1323 PR2 ≈ 0,2646 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 21 Solution Question 2 Part e) Maximization of 1,25 p - 0,75( p2 p2 ) : 0 Efficient frontier: p T (1 - )rf p 0,1 0,16 _ E[( rT (1 - ) rf ) - ( T (1 - ) rf )]2 2 p _ E[ (rT - T )]2 p2 2T2 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 22 Solution Question 2 Part e) δ μp δα δσp2 = 0,16 δα = 2ασT2 = 0,0896α δΦ = 1,25 * 0,16 - 0,75[2 * (0,1 + 0,16α ) * 0,16 + 0,0896 α ] = 0 δα 0,2 - 0,024 - 0,0384 - 0,0672 0 0,176= 0,1056α _ 5 α = = 1, 6 3 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 23 Solution Question 2 Part e) _ 11 μp = = 0,3 6 30 _ 28 σ = = 0,12 4 225 2 p Φ ≈ 0,2642 σ p ≈ 0,353 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 24 Solution Question 2 Graphical solution for question 2 μP 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 σP 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 25 Question 3 Question 3 The expected return and the standard deviation of stock 1 and stock 2 are E(r1)=1=0,25, 1=30% and E(r2)= 2=0,15, 2 =10% respectively. The correlation is -0.2. a) Which weights should an investor assign to stock 1 and stock 2 to set up the minimumvariance portfolio? Also compute the expected return and the variance of the portfolio. b) Assume that in addition to the above information a risk free investment with a yield of 10% exists on the capital market. Show that the investor can now realize the same expected return at a lower level of risk. For this purpose, calculate the risk of the efficient portfolio based on the expected return calculated in part a) and compare it to the minimum-variance portfolio of part a). Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 26 Solution Question 3 Part a) L p2 [ x1 x2 - 1] p2 x12 12 x22 22 2 x1 x2 1, 2 p2 x12 12 (1 x1 )² 22 2 x1 (1 x1 ) 1, 2 p2 x1 0,224x1 0,032 0 x1 0,1429 x2 0,8571 p 16,43% p2 8,78% Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 27 Solution Question 3 Part b) L p2 [ x11 x2 2 (1 - x1 - x2 )rf - 0,1643] p2 x12 12 x22 22 2 x1 x2 1, 2 L 0,09x12 0,01x22 0,012x1 x2 [0,15x1 0,05x 2 -0,0643] x1 0,2143 x2 0,643 y 0,1427 p2 0,0066151 p 8,13% Basics of Portfolio Selection Theory: Exercise 1 28