Chapter 16 Determinants of the Money Supply Deriving a model of the money supply process • Because central bank can exert more precise control over the MB than total reserves alone (Chap. 15), we model the links between the money supply and MB. • We shall derive a money multiplier (a ratio that relates the change in the money supply to a given change in in the MB) • We focus on M1. © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-2 Deriving the Money Multiplier M = m MB m is the money multiplier, which tells us how much the money supply changes for a given change in the MB. R = RR (required reserves) + ER (excess reserves) RR = r × D C = desired level of currency D = checkable deposits c = C/D = currency ratio e = ER/D = excess reserves ratio © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-3 Money Multiplier M = m MB Deriving Money Multiplier R = RR + ER RR = r D R = (r D) + ER Adding C to both sides R + C = MB = (r D) + ER + C 1. Tells us amount of MB needed support D, ER and C 2. $1 of MB in ER, not support D or C MB = (r D) + (e D) + (c D) = (r + e + c) D © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-4 D= 1 r+e+c MB M = D + (c D ) = (1 + c) D M= 1+c r+e+c m = 1+c r+e+c MB m < 1/r because no multiple expansion for currency and because as D ER Full Model M = m (MBn + DL) © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-5 Factors that Determine the Money Multiplier 1. Changes in the required reserve ratio r 2. Changes in the currency ratio c 3. Changes in the excess reserves ratio e a. market interest rates: the banking system’s excess reserves ratio e is negatively related to the market interest rate i. b. expected deposit outflows: the excess reserves ratio e is positively related to expected deposit outflows. © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-6 Excess Reserves Ratio Determinants of e 1. i , relative Re on ER (opportunity cost ), e 2. Expected deposit outflows, ER insurance worth more, e 16-7 Additional Factors that Determine the Money Supply MB = MBn + DL MB: monetary Base MBn : nonborrowed monetary Base DL: discount loans from the central bank M = m × (MBn + DL) 1. Changes in the MBn: the money supply is positively related to the MBn. 2. Changes in the DL: the money supply is positively related to the level of DL from the central bank. © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-8 Factors Determining Money Supply © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-9 Money Supply © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-10 Determinants of the Money Supply © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-11 Deposits at Failed Banks: 1929–33 © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-12 e, c: 1929–33 © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-13 Money Supply and Monetary Base: 1929–33 © 2004 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 16-14