Coalition Formation and Price of Anarchy in Cournot Oligopolies Vangelis Markakis Athens University of Economics and Business Joint work with: Nicole Immorlica (Northwestern University) Georgios Piliouras (Georgia Tech) Motivation and goals Some degree of cooperation is often allowed or even encouraged in various games Price of anarchy can be reduced if players are allowed to form coalition structures [Hayrapetyan et al ’06, Fotakis et al. ’06]: Static models for congestion games (coalition structure exogenously forced) Dynamic models? Inefficiency of stable partitions w.r.t the dynamics? 2 Outline Cournot games Coalition Formation in Cournot games Nash equilibria and price of anarchy A model for dynamic coalition formation Stable partitions Quantifying inefficiency of stable partitions 3 Cournot Oligopolies [Cournot 1838] Games among firms producing/offering the same (or a similar) product 4 Linear and symmetric Cournot games n firms producing the same product Strategy space: R+ (quantity that the firm will produce) Cost of producing per unit: c Given a strategy profile q = (q1, q2,…,qn): Price of the product: depends linearly on Q = Σqi p(Q) = a – b Q Payoff to agent i: ui = qi p(Q) - cqi 5 Linear and symmetric Cournot games Cournot games have a unique Nash equilibrium where: qi = q* = (a - c)/b(n+1) p(Q) = (a + nc)/(n+1) ui = (a – c)2/b(n+1)2 Total welfare of the agents can be very low: [Harberger ’54] (empirical observations) [Guo, Yang ’05, Kluberg, Perakis ’08] (theoretical analysis) PoA = (n) 6 Cooperation in Cournot games In practice, competition among firms is not exactly a non-cooperative game Suppose firms are allowed to partition themselves into coalition structures S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 7 Cooperation in Cournot games Definition (the static case): Given a fixed partitioning Π = (S1,…,Sk), the Cournot super-game consists of k super-players Strategy space of superplayer: product space of its players Utility of superplayer: sum of utilities of its players Lemma: In all Nash equilibria of the super-game: Social welfare is the same Payoff of a superplayer is the payoff of a firm in a k-player Cournot game 8 Cooperation in Cournot games Are all partitions equally likely to arise? What if players are allowed to join/abandon existing coalitions? Inefficiency of stable partitions? (stable w.r.t. allowed moves) 9 A coalition formation game Given a current partition Π = (S1,…,Sk) At an equilibrium of the super-game, a player jSi considers his current payoff to be u(Si)/| Si| We allow 3 types of moves from Π Type 1: A group of existing coalitions merge 10 A coalition formation game Type 2: A subset S of an existing coalition Si, abandons Si and forms a separate coalition. Left over coalition Si\S dissolves Si S 11 A coalition formation game Type 3: A strict subset S of an existing coalition Si can leave and join another existing coalition Sj. Left over coalition Si\S dissolves S Si Sj 12 Inefficiency of stable partitions Definition: A partition is stable if there is no move that strictly increases the payoff of all deviators PoA := max. inefficiency of a stable partition Theorem: PoA = Θ(n2/5) Note: constants independent of supply-demand curves (i.e. of game parameters, a, b, c) 13 Proof sketch of upper bound Lemma 1: For stable partitions with k coalitions PoA = O(k) S1 Because equilibria of super-game have same welfare as the equilibium of a k-player Cournot game Need upper bound on size of stable partitions For Π = (S1,…,Sk), let k1 = # singleton coalitions k2 = # non-singleton coalitions S2 S3 S4 S5 14 Proof sketch of upper bound Proposition (characterization): A partition Π = (S1,…,Sk) is stable iff k1 (k2 +1)2 For each non-singleton Si, |Si| k2 suffices to solve a non-linear program 15 Proof sketch of upper bound PoA = Solving PoA n2/5 16 Proof of lower bound By (almost) tightening the inequalities of the math. program For any integer N, let n:= 4N4/5 N1/5 + N2/5 We need k1 = N2/5 singletons And k2 = N1/5 coalitions of size 4N4/5 k = k1 + k2 = Ω (n2/5) Lemma 2: The resulting partition is stable 17 Other behavioral assumptions So far we assumed partitions reach a Nash equilibrium of the super-game Theorem: Same result holds when super-players of a partition employ no-regret algorithms. No-regret converges to Nash utility of each superplayer 18 Future work Apply the same to other classes of games Routing games, socially concave games Need to ensure the super-game has a well-defined payoff for the superplayers Need to define how players split the superplayer’s payoff Other models of coalition formation Thank you! 19