There was an old lady who swallowed a fly … (… or, how did we end up here anyway) There was an old lady who swallowed a fly … Limited measurement opportunities There was an old lady who swallowed a spider … 2 ∝ 𝒛𝒉𝒖𝒃 Approximations to compensate for lack of knowledge, e.g. • Wind shear exponent, • Turbulence intensity 1.5 Height / hub height 𝑽 𝒛 = 𝑽𝒉𝒖𝒃 𝒛 1 0.5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 Wind speed / hub height wind speed There was an old lady who swallowed a horse … … she’s dead, of course. Solutions that are over-constrained by the original problem can lead to bigger problems There was an old lady who didn’t swallow a fly … (… or, what would we do if we started from scratch) Eolics: equally sophisticated • Measurements • Models of atmospheric conditions and wind turbine response Scientific rigour and predictive power is possible Epistemology and the eolicist • My knowledge is incomplete • The incompleteness of my knowledge extends to my knowledge of its incompleteness • I don’t know what I don’t know • Do you know what I don’t know I don’t know? • We cannot predict what we can learn from each other • Measure, discuss, disagree … learn Compression zone Compression zone © Gerrit Wolken-Möhlmann, Fraunhofer IWES Galion G4000 Offshore on transition piece 2 x Galion G4000 Offshore on nacelle, one facing forward to survey inflow, one facing back for wakes © Gerrit Wolken-Möhlmann, Fraunhofer IWES Unit G24 Compression zone Compression zone Compression zone at 5m/s Compression zone 105% Normalised wind Speed (% of wind speed at 2.5D upwind) 104% Free stream Nacelle lidar 103% 102% 101% 5 m/s bin 6 m/s bin 100% 7 m/s bin 8 m/s bin 99% 9 m/s bin 98% 2.5D = 100% 97% 10 m/s bin 11 m/s bin 12 m/s bin 96% 95% 94% Upwind distance from rotor (m) Convergent scan geometries Convergent scan geometries Mast TB1 Mast TB2 Convergent scan geometries Convergent scan geometries Lidar Turbulence Intensity 0.4 0.35 0.3 y = 0.996x + 0.003 R² = 0.990 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Mast Turbulence Intensity 0.3 0.35 0.4 The problem with turbulence intensity Linear ramp Random Gaussian Transience versus Variance m2/s2 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2 m 1 n 2 xi xi m n i 1 2 Variance Transience, m=1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 n n xi x 2 i 1 Degree of "scatter" 0.7 0.8 0.9 1