South South Cooperation: Origins and trends Richard Kozul-Wright UNCTAD, Unit on EICDC December 2010 South South Cooperation A (short) history of South South cooperation Terminology Recent trends Back to the future? The 1970s vs the 2000s INTERMISSION A Lewis moment? A Global perspective on the rise of the south South South interdependence: Why policy space still matters Productive integration: East Asian Lessons Monetary and financial cooperation:a missing link? The South is Dead: Long Live the South! South South Timeline 1945 Formation of Arab league 1955 Asian-African Conference in Bandung, Indonesia 1960 Latin America Free Trade Area (LAFTA) OPEC 1961 Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) 1963 Organization of African Unity (OAU) 1964 First United Nations Conference for Trade and Development + G77 established 1967 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 1968 UNCTAD ECDC unit 1969 Andean Community 1973 Caribbean Community (CARICOM) 1974 UN General Assembly adopts Declaration for the Establishment of a NIEO Special Unit to Promote Technical Cooperation among Developing Countries (TCDC) by UNDP 1975 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 1976 Mexico City conference on ECDC; GSTP launched 1978 UN Conference on South South Cooperation, Buenos Aires 1981 High-Level Conference of the G-77 in Caracas Venezuela Caracas Programme of Action on ECDC Collapse of NIEO 1985 South Asian Association for regional Cooperation 1987 The South Commission established 1988 GSTP entered into force 1991 Mercosur 1994 Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) 2000 Ministerial Conference of the Forum on ChinaAfrica Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Beijing. First South Summit in Havana, Cuba OAU formally adopted the NEPAD 2003 IBSA Forum. UN General Assembly declares 19 December, UN Day for South-South Cooperation Marrakech Declaration on South-South Cooperation 2005 Second South Summit Doha, Qatar 2002 2007 Bank of the South 2008 UNCTAD XII, Accra, Ghana Africa India Summit held in New Delhi, India 2009 UN High Level Conference on on South South Cooperation Nairobi 2010 Ratification of the constitutive treaty of Unasur Sao Paulo GSTP round signed (December) UNCTAD’S Role UNCTAD was the lead organisation to South South Cooperation beginning from 1964 It focused on the regional economic It involved in a very wide ranging research agenda, not just on trade issues (e.g. financial arrangement) It involved in a heavy discussion on South South Cooperation issues during 1960-1970 Twists and terms 1 Economic Integration MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRADE INTEGRATION ARRANGEMENTS trade Preferential trade agreement Reduction Elimination Common of tariffs in of tariffs in tariffs for intraregional trade intraregional the world the rest of mobility Harmonization Free factor policies of economic Yes Free trade agreement Yes Customs union desirable Yes Yes Common market desirable Yes Yes Yes Coordination Economic union Yes Yes Yes Yes Source: UNCTAD secretariat. Coordination Twists and terms 2 Development cooperation South South cooperation Twists and terms 3 Economic cooperation among developing countries (ECDC) Technical cooperation among developing countries (TCDC) Twists and terms 4 Triangular cooperation North and South South-South Trade Volumes, US$ 3500000000 3000000000 2500000000 2000000000 1500000000 1000000000 500000000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Asia 2000 2001 2002 Latin America and the Caribbean 2003 2004 Africa Transition 2005 Oceania 2006 2007 2008 2009 Millions South-South trade by region Test 2009 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Oceania Asia 400 200 LAC 0 Africa Africa LAC Asia Exporter Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat. Recipient 600 FDI from developing regions, US$ 350000 300000 250000 Millions USD 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -50000 Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Asia Oceania 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Evolution of South-South FDI:1990-2006 Year World Outward FDI (Billions of dollars) South-South FDI* (Billions of dollars) South-South FDI as % of world total Growth rate South-South FDI 1990 241 12 5 -14 1991 198 9 5 -23 1992 203 16 8 81 1993 243 17 7 6 1994 287 25 9 41 1995 363 27 7 10 1996 396 35 9 29 1997 476 45 9 28 1998 682 29 4 -36 1999 1077 37 3 28 2000 1233 35 3 -6 2001 753 41 5 16 2002 537 30 6 -26 2003 566 39 7 29 2004 920 77 8 96 2005 893 88 10 15 2006 1411 145 10 64 2007 2267 180 8 25 2008 1928 187 10 4 2009 1100 149 14 -20 Note: * Calculation excludes Cayman Islands, British Virgin Island and Hong Kong (China). Net transfer of financial resources to developing economies and economies in transition, 1997-2009 Billions of Dollars 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009b Developing -3.6 economies Africa -7.0 Sub-Saharan 7.4 Africa (excluding Nigeria and South Africa) East and -32.1 South Asia Western 12.4 Asia Latin 23.2 America and the Caribbean Economies 1.6 in transition Memorandum Items 7.2 10.3 -37.1 -126.2 -195.0 -163.8 -208.2 -302.3 -378.0 -581.0 -781.9 -870.3 -890.7 -567.7 13.0 12.2 1.5 8.5 -32.2 2.6 -16.8 6.8 -5.1 4.8 -19.0 6.5 -35.4 4.1 -63.9 0.8 -87.2 -9.6 -98.7 -5.6 -91.4 -1.0 20.8 27.3 -128.2 -139.4 -124.8 -121.0 -147.7 -173.5 -181.1 -262.5 -383.6 -518.4 -478.9 -497.2 34.5 2.7 -35.3 -29.7 -23.2 -46.7 -76.9 -145.4 -175.8 -150.0 -259.5 -52.4 43.7 8.9 -2.8 3.7 -32.2 -63.2 -84.6 -109.3 -135.4 -103.2 -60.9 -38.8 0.7 -25.1 -51.5 -32.9 -27.9 -38.0 -62.4 -95.7 -117.1 -98.3 -153.0 -89.7 8.4 13.6 9.8 11.4 8.5 6.2 8.5 9.1 10.9 7.3 13.1 8.9 15.6 6.0 20.4 2.9 18.6 -7.4 28.0 -4.9 43.4 -0.7 45.7 20.3 Sovereign Wealth Funds with over $100 billion Country United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi Norway Saudi Arabia China Singapore China South Korea China Hong Kong Kuwait China Singapore Russia Fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Government Pension Fund - Global SAMA Foreign Holdings SAFE Investment Company Government of Singapore Investment Corporation China Investment Corporation National Pension Service Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio Kuwait Investment Authority National Social Security Fund Temasek Holdings National Welfare Fund Assets $Billion 627 Inception 1976 443 415 347.1** 340 1990 n/a 1997 1981 332.4 268.0 227.6 2007 1998 1993 202.8 146.5 143 142.5* 1953 2000 1974 2008 Global migrant stocks, 2005 (millions) South Migrants in North North (HI non(HI OECD) OECD) Total Migrants from: South North (HI OECD) North (HI nonOECD) Total 74 3 62 25 20 1.2 156 30 1 4 0.3 5 78 91 22 191 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on migration data from University of Sussex, United Nations, and World Bank Factors for Growing Increased of South South Economic Connection Trade Foreign Direct Investment Financial flows Labour flows South South Cooperation 1970 1970: last golden age of South South cooperation 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing economies Developed economies 1970 - 1980 Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCTADstat. 1981-1989 1995 - 2009 World Geographical composition of world exports:1970 and 1980 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Brazil China India Japan 1970 NIC MENA USA (before 1981) EU15 1980 Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCOMTRADE. Note: EU 15 includes, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. MENA includes the Middle East and North African Countries. NIC only includes, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. China’s share of world exports corresponds to the earliest available figure in UNCOMTRADE, 1984. Geographical composition of world exports:1996,2006 and 2009 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Brazil China India Russia Japan 1996 2006 NIC MENA USA EU15 2009 Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCOMTRADE. Note: EU 15 includes, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. MENA includes the Middle East and North African Countries. Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. Average growth rates: selected countries 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Brazil China India Russia 1970 - 1980 Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCTADstat. Japan 1995 - 2009 NIC United States EU Distribution of global output Long run GDP trend 80 60 50 40 30 20 10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 94 19 96 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 0 19 80 % of global GDP 70 Year High Income Low and middle Income Low and middle income w/o China Differences within the south? Long run GDP trend 14 10 8 6 4 2 20 08 20 04 20 06 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 94 19 96 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 84 19 86 19 82 0 19 80 % of global GDP 12 Year China India Indonesia Brasil LAC SSF South Africa Final Thoughts 1. Exporting economies VS Big economies 2. Converting VS Catch up 3. Dependance Vs Decoupling -5 HIC LCN EAP SAS -10 -15 Year SSF 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 09 07 05 03 01 99 97 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65 63 61 Growth % Decoupling Decoupling of economic performances 20 15 10 5 0