Transatlantic Trends 2014

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Transatlantic Trends 2014
Key Findings
www.transatlantictrends.org
2
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Methodology
This is the thirteenth annual Transatlantic Trends survey of public opinion in the United States
and Europe. TNS Opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in 13 countries: the U.S.,
Turkey, Russia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden,
Spain, and the United Kingdom. The surveys were conducted as Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviews in all countries except Poland, Russia, and Turkey, where lower telephone
penetration necessitated the use of face-to-face interviews.
In all countries, a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women (Russia: 1,500), 18
years of age and older, were interviewed. Interviews were conducted between June 2 and
June 26, 2014.
For results based on the national samples in each of the 13 countries surveyed, one can say
with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other
random effects is +/ - 3%.
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3
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Key Findings
•
Europeans support a more independent transatlantic relationship, U.S.
looks for more burden sharing
•
Opinion of U.S. leadership drops dramatically in Germany
•
EU seen as not having done enough to combat the economic crisis,
particularly in southern European countries
•
Plurality in U.S. want legal status for illegal immigrants
•
Majorities support sanctions against Russia and are willing to risk
increasing conflict to support Ukraine
•
Russians view the U.S. and EU unfavorably, but see opportunity to work
with emerging powers
www.transatlantictrends.org
4
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1: The Transatlantic Relationship
2: The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
3: Transatlantic Security Cooperation
4: Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
5
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majorities Support U.S., EU Leadership, Except in Russia
U.S. desire for EU leadership
Russian desire for EU leadership
100
Percent
80
76
73
68
72
EU desire for U.S. leadership
Russian desire for U.S. leadership
72
69
70
63
60
55
56
54
52
57
55
56
40
37
36
37
36
20
25
19
10
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q1a-b: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable, somewhat desirable,
somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable?
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6
Transatlantic Trends 2014
U.S., EU Leadership Seen as Desirable, Russia Less So
100
Percent
80
60
83
U.S.
73 72
70
56
EU
Russia
40
China
39 38
31
20
20
25 27 28
14 16
0
In the United States
In Turkey
10
Russia
In the
EU
Q1a-d: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union/Russia/China exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable,
somewhat desirable, somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable?
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7
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Obama's Approval Drops, Dramatically in Germany
2009
Percent
20
0
13
8
1
-11
-7
-14
-1
-16
2013
0
-2
-16
-3
-16
-19
-4
-19
-5
-19
-20
-7
-19
-2
-20
-22
-30
-36
-40
2.1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama is handling international policies?
*Sweden data from 2011, Russia data from 2012
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Transatlantic Trends 2014
Approval of Own Government's Interna onal Policies
100
12
Percent
80
19 25
60
40
20
83
33 42
38 43 42 52 47 47
58 62 66
Disapprove
74 68
60
52 52 51 51 47 47
44
35 33 28
Approve
Ru
s
Sw sia
e
Ge den
Ne rm
th an
er y
lan
ds
Un
E
ite Po U
d lan
Ki
ng d
do
m
It a
Fr ly
an
c
Tu e
r
Po key
rt u
ga
l
U.
S.
Sp
a
Gr in
ee
ce
0
Q3.1: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling interna onal policies?
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Transatlantic Trends 2014
U.S., EU See Each Other Favorably
100
Percent
80
89
81
77
67 65
60
EU
57
Russia
40
45
34
20
U.S.
31
20
China
41
20 20
23
35
25
0
In the United States
In Turkey
In the
Russia
EU
Q4.1-4: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the United
States/the European Union/Russia/China?
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10
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Support for Independent Approach to Transatlantic Relationship
100
18
32
28
80
Percent
40
69
19
33
26
24
9
60
19
8
58
49
58
32
20
12
20
19
26
52
40
55
54
50
42
36
47
45
Become
closer
27
36
Remain the
same
35
21
51
50
37
18
14
57
34
42
35
34
20
32
40
34
33
26
22
0
More
independent
approach
2013
Q5: Do you think that the partnership in security and diplomatic affairs between the United States and the European Union should become closer, should
remain about the same, or should the [IN EUROPE: European Union / IN THE US: United States] take a more independent approach from the [IN EUROPE:
United States / IN US: European Union]?
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11
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1: The Transatlantic Relationship
2: The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
3: Transatlantic Security Cooperation
4: Russia
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12
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Widespread Effect of Economic Crisis
2009
100
95
Percent
80
91
81 78
76 7473
64
60
47
40
2014
72
60
64 6262
5557
42
20
52
46
58
50
56
47
20
30 31
22
EU
Po
lan
*R d
N e u ss
i
th
er a
lan
Ge ds
rm
a
*S ny
we
de
n
Gr
ee
Po c e
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Tu
rk
ey
U.
S.
Ita
ly
Un
ite Fra
n
d
Ki ce
ng
do
m
0
Q18: Regarding the extent to which you or your family has been personally affected by the current economic crisis, would you say that your
family's financial situa on has been greatly affected, somewhat affected, not really affected, or not affected at all?
* Sweden data from 2011, Russia data from 2012
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13
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majorities See EU Membership as Beneficial
100
21
Percent
80
60
24
13
76
71
73
26
26
33
36
42
36
40
29
71
65
66
58
40
28
57
Bad
63
60
63
61
48
49
56
52
55
49
53
45
53
51
Good
40
2013
20
0
Q22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[TURKEY: would be] a
good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]?
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14
Transatlantic Trends 2014
EU Membership Good because of Democracy, Free Movement
EU is a community of
democracies
Free movement
11
5
16
31
Maintained peace
Strengthened European
economies
More than one op on
19
27
None of the above
Don't Know
Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing?
* Asked of the 65% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a good thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
15
Transatlantic Trends 2014
EU Membership Bad Because of its Effect on Na onal Economies
5
2 2
Harmed our country’s
economy
Too much authority
11
45
13
Undermined our culture
Is undemocra c
More than one op on
23
None of the above
Don't Know
Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing?
* Asked of the 28% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a bad thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
16
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Most See Euro as Bad for Na onal Economy
2010
100
80
838683
Percent
60
81
75
67
69
40
2013
65
6362
61
53
52
2014
5858
48
64
64
58 586056 60
53
51
53
51
44
43 45
36
20
Fr
an
Ne
ce
th
er
lan
ds
Ge
rm
an
y
EU
It a
ly
lan
d
Po
Po
rtu
ga
l
ain
Sp
e
Gr
ee
c
n
ed
e
*S
w
Un
ite
d
Ki
ng
do
m
0
Q24: Generally speaking, do you think that using the euro in [COUNTRY] [WITHIN THE EUROZONE: has been / OUTSIDE THE EUROZONE: would be] a good
thing or a bad thing for the [COUNTRY] economy?
* Sweden data from 2011
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17
Transatlantic Trends 2014
EU, National Governments Not Doing Enough to Combat Crisis
Affected countries not doing enough
Spain
3
Italy
Both not doing enough
EU not doing enough
71
4
68
Greece
4
Portugal
54
United Kingdom
10
53
EU
10
53
22
10
France
Netherlands
22
20
11
16
47
Poland
Sweden
16
61
6
Germany
15
47
5
18
14
11
5
45
35
43
9
40
14
Q19, Q20: Is the European Union doing enough to combat the economic crisis in Europe? Do you think the countries most severely affected by the economic crisis are doing enough
to combat the economic crisis themselves?
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Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majori es Support Na onal Control over Budgets
100
Percent
80
18
18
22
28
32
67
64
34
35
37
37
29
36
60
40
79
77
73
61
61
60
60
60
59
20
EU should
have more
authority
over budgets
Na onal
government
control over
budgets
It a
ly
Sp
ain
Fr
an
G e ce
rm
an
y
Po
lan
Po d
rt u
ga
l
EU
Un
G
ite ree
d
K i ce
ng
do
m
Sw
Ne ede
th
n
er
lan
ds
0
Q21: Some people say that because of recent economic difficul es, the EU should have more authority over Member States’ economic and budgetary policies.
Other people say that each member state should retain this authority for itself. Which view is closer to your own?
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19
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Most Prefer to Accommodate UK's Concerns, Except French
100
Percent
80
35
26
31
23
36
30
38
41
37
40
52
56
55
55
52
52
51
50
50
45
42
60
UK should
leave the EU
40
20
57
ed
en
Gr
ee
ce
Po
lan
d
Ita
Po ly
rtu
ga
l
Sw
Ge EU
rm
an
y
Ne Spa
in
th
er
lan
ds
Fr
an
ce
Un
ite
d
Ki
n
gd
o
m
0
EU should
accommodate
concerns of UK
Q25: As you may know, the UK has raised concerns about the terms of its membership in the European Union, and there has been some discussion of the UK
leaving the European Union. Do you think the other EU Member States should do more to accommodate the concerns of the UK, or would it be be er if the
UK leaves the EU?
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20
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Dissa sfac on with Government's Handling of Immigra on
100
Percent
80
20 22 25
23 27 33 34
36 40
46
44 60
60
40
20
77 75 73 71
67 64 64 60
57 51
48
50 67
Approve
Disapprove
38 36
26
Sp
Un
a
ite Gr in
d ee
K i ce
ng
do
m
U.
Tu S .
rk
e
Fr y
an
ce
It a
ly
Ne
th EU
er
la
Ge nd
rm s
Po any
rt u
Sw gal
ed
e
Po n
lan
Ru d
ss
ia
0
Q3.3: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling immigra on from other countries?
www.transatlantictrends.org
21
Transatlantic Trends 2014
What Do We Think Motivates Immigrants?
Work
Seek social benefits
Seek asylum
United with family members
EU
4
Study
None of the above
Don't know
U.S.
4 3
6
5
2 3
7
40
18
46
7
29
26
Russia
Turkey
4
3
12
13
4
17
60
222
22
52
16
Q26a: In your opinion, what do you think is the most common reason for immigrants (from other countries) to come to [COUNTRY]?
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22
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Plurality of Americans Support a Path to Legal Status
45
60
Percent
40
Legal Status for Illegal Immigrants...
45
11
27
20
Should include
a path to U.S.
citizenship
3
26
86
Should not
include a path
to U.S.
citizenship
Don't Know
0
Path to gain legal
status
Repatriate
Depends on
circumstance
Q30: Thinking now about immigrants who are currently living in [COUNTRY] ILLEGALLY, should they be required to return to their country of origin, or should
they be given the opportunity to obtain legal status that allows them to stay here?
Q31: You said that you would prefer for immigrants in the country illegally to have the opportunity to obtain legal status. In your opinion, should this legal
status include a path to U.S. citizenship or should it not include a path to U.S. citizenship?
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23
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1: The Transatlantic Relationship
2: The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
3: Transatlantic Security Cooperation
4: Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
24
Transatlantic Trends 2014
NATO S ll Essen al in U.S., EU
100
Percent
80
60
U.S.
56
62
60
61
60
57
52
55
55
60
62
60
62
58
61
58
59
59
58
56
55
49
44
35
20
Turkey
69
53
40
EU
38
35
37
38
39
30
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q10: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if
respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states']
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25
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Little Support for NATO Missions Outside of Europe, U.S.
80
Territorial defense of
Europe
73
60
Percent
59
57
535553
49
40
434341
Military operations outside
of U.S. and Europe
57
43
41
3836
Providing arms or training
Providing arms or training
to countries like Ukraine
20
Stability in places like
Afghanistan
0
U.S.
EU
Turkey
Q11.1-5: Should NATO be engaged in the following missions? 1. Territorial defense of Europe 2. Military operations outside of U.S. and Europe 3. Providing
arms or training 4. Providing arms or training to countries like Ukraine 5. Stability in places like Afghanistan
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26
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Most Willing to Risk Conflict with Russia to Support Ukraine
100
Percent
80
60
40
73
67
65
64
59
58
58
20
57
53
52
48
44
42
Ne
U
th .S.
er
lan
ds
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Gr
ee
ce
Tu
rk
ey
EU
Fr
an
ce
Sw
ed
en
Po
lan
Ge d
rm
an
U n Po y
ite rtu
ga
d
Ki
l
ng
do
m
0
Q16a: Should the European Union (in US: the United States) con nue to provide economic and poli cal support to Ukraine, even if there is a risk of increasing
conflict with Russia?
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27
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Measures to Support Ukraine
Economic aid to
Ukraine
80
78 77
60
68
64
63
61
58
Percent
69
68
52
52
40
46
43
25
20
Sanctions
against Russia
Provide military
supplies and
equipment to
Ukraine
Offer NATO
membership to
Ukraine
Offer EU
membership to
Ukraine
0
U.S.
EU
Poland
Q16b.1-5: There have been a number of proposals for how (the EU/USA) should react to Russian actions in Ukraine. For each of the following, please tell me if
you agree or disagree with the proposed action. 1. Offer NATO membership to Ukraine 2. Offer EU membership to Ukraine 3. Increase economic assistance to
Ukraine 4. Send military supplies and equipment to Ukraine 5. Impose stronger economic sanctions on Russia
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28
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1: The Transatlantic Relationship
2: The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
3: Transatlantic Security Cooperation
4: Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
29
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians Worry about Economy, Interna onal Instability
Percent
40
29
20
22
11
8
8
5
3
2
Cr
im
e
Te
rro
ris
m
Ed
uc
a
on
En
vir
on
m
en
Im
t
m
igr
a
on
3
In
te
rn
a
Ec
on
om
on
al
y
in
st
ab
ilit
y
Co
rru
p
on
He
alt
hc
Un
ar
em
e
pl
oy
m
en
t
0
4
Q0a: What do you think is the most important issue facing [OUR COUNTRY] at the moment?
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30
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians Want More Independence from NATO
2012
2014
60
47
Percent
40
36
30
20
31
21
15
0
Become closer
Remain the same
More independent
approach
Q5: Do you think that the partnership in security and diploma c affairs between Russia and NATO should become closer, should remain about the same, or
should Russia take a more independent approach from NATO?
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31
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians View Belarus Favorably, Ukraine Unfavorably
100
14
80
Percent
28
60
40
46
64
80
Unfavorable
Favorable
56
42
20
30
0
Belarus
Moldova
Georgia
Ukraine
Q4.6-9: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of .6 Ukraine .7
Moldova .8 Belarus .9 Georgia?
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32
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians Willing to Risk Conflict with EU to Maintain Influence over Ukraine
Percent
60
40
53
20
29
18
0
Maintain influence over Avoid risking conflict
Ukraine
with EU
Don't Know
Q17: Do you think Russia should act to maintain its influence over Ukraine, even if there's a risk that that could cause conflict with the EU?
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33
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russia Sees Opportunity with India and China
2
2
7
36
10
14
Emerging powers such as
India and China
CIS states
Countries of the European
Union
Russia should act alone
The United States
29
More than one op on
Don't know
Q8: On interna onal ma ers, with which one of the following do you think Russia should cooperate most closely?
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34
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Opportuni es for Russian Coopera on
40
Russia should
work alone
36
Percent
30
Both the EU
and the U.S.
29 30
28
20
22
The EU
19
15
13
2
3
2
The U.S.
0
Stability in Syria
Nego a ons with
Iran over nuclear
program
Europe's eastern
neighborhood
Q9.1-3: On the following issues, do you think it would be be er for Russia to work together with the EU, the US, both or should Russia work alone? 1. Stability
in Syria 2. Nego a ons with Iran regarding its nuclear program 3. The future of Europe's eastern neighborhood
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35
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Limited Approval for Handling of Russia Policy
President Obama
Own government
60
40
65
62
49
62 59
56
47
40
56 53
56
52 49
48 48 46
45
27
20
41 41
33
7
G e EU
rm
an
y
Sp
ain
Po
la
nd
Ita
Sw ly
ed
e
Po n
rtu
ga
Un
l
ite Fra
n
d
Ki ce
ng
do
m
0
Ne
th
er
lan
ds
39
35
26 25
U.
S
Tu .
rk
ey
Gr
ee
ce
Ru
ss
ia
Percent
80
Q2.2, 3.2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama/[COUNTRY]’s government is managing rela ons with
Russia?
www.transatlantictrends.org
36
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians See A lot, but Not Too Many Immigrants
100
Percent
80
23
38
Not many
60
40
40
37
A lot, but not
too many
Too many
20
29
19
0
Not given percent
Given percent of Immigrants
Q27a-b: Generally speaking, how do you feel about the number of people living in [COUNTRY] who were not born in [COUNTRY]? Are there too many, a lot
but not too many, or not many? As you may know, according to official estimates, around [XX]% of the [COUNTRY] population was born in another country. In
your opinion, is this too many, a lot but not too many, or not many?
www.transatlantictrends.org
37
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russians Not Worried about Immigra on from Outside Soviet Region
60
Percent
40
20
Not worried
44
48
52
38
Worried
0
From former Soviet States
From outside the former Soviet
region
Q29.6-7: Can you tell me if you are worried or not worried about: 1. Immigra on from former Soviet States 2. Immigra on from outside the
former Soviet region?
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38
Transatlantic Trends 2014
First and Second Genera on Immigrants Integra ng Well
Poorly
Well
Percent
80
60
40
63
55
20
34
23
0
Immigrants
Children of immigrants
Q32a-b: Generally speaking, how well do you think that immigrants are integra ng into NATIONALITY society? Generally speaking, how well do
you think that the children of immigrants, who were born in [COUNTRY], are integra ng into [NATIONALITY] society?
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39
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Key Findings
•
Europeans support a more independent transatlantic relationship, U.S.
looks for more burden sharing
•
Opinion of U.S. leadership drops dramatically in Germany
•
EU seen as not having done enough to combat the economic crisis,
particularly in southern European countries
•
Plurality in U.S. want legal status for illegal immigrants
•
Majorities support sanctions against Russia and are willing to risk
increasing conflict to support Ukraine
•
Russians view the U.S. and EU unfavorably, but see opportunity to work
with emerging powers
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40
Transatlantic Trends 2014
For more information about methodology, specific
countries, and the full top-line dataset please visit:
www.transatlantictrends.org
www.facebook.com/gmfus
www.twitter.com/gmfus
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41
Transatlantic Trends 2014
NATO S ll Essen al in U.S., EU
100
Percent
80
60
U.S.
56
62
60
61
60
57
52
55
55
60
62
60
62
58
61
58
59
59
58
56
55
49
44
35
20
Turkey
69
53
40
EU
38
35
37
38
39
30
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q10: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if
respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states']
www.transatlantictrends.org
42
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Whom Should EU Work with on the Middle East?
5
With EU Countries
10
44
41
Take an independent
approach
With the U.S.
Don't Know
Q6a.3: And how about in managing our rela onship with the Middle East, should [COUNTRY]...?
www.transatlantictrends.org
43
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Whom Should EU Work with on China?
6
With EU Countries
9
42
Take an independent
approach
With the U.S.
44
Don't Know
Q6a.2: And how about in managing our rela onship with China, should [COUNTRY]...?
www.transatlantictrends.org
44
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majori es Support Na onal Control over Budgets
2011
100
80
Percent
79
60
8482
81
77 75
73
75
67
55
2014
2013
75
68
64
55
40
6461
47
61
53
67
60
55
67
6060 586260
56 59
44
20
Fr
an
ce
Ge
rm
an
y
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
ain
Sp
It a
ly
EU
Gr
Un
ee
ite
ce
d
Ki
ng
do
m
Sw
ed
Ne
en
th
er
lan
ds
0
Q21: Some people say that because of recent economic difficul es, the EU should have more authority over Member States’ economic and budgetary policies.
Other people say that each member state should retain this authority for itself. Which view is closer to your own?
www.transatlantictrends.org
45
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Obama's Approval on the Decline Since 2009
2009
2013
2014
100
80
Percent
60
40
88
83
69
64
73
69
57
50
43
92
91
90
77
76
74
74
76
56
50
20
26
0
7
35
34
90
68
60
55
75 75
68
64
63
85
57
55
82
63 63
33
2.1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama is handling international policies?
*Sweden data from 2011, Russia data from 2012
www.transatlantictrends.org
46
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majori es See EU Membership as Beneficial
100
Percent
80
21
13
24
28
26
26
33
36
36
60
40
76
73
71
65
63
20
63
61
56
55
29
53
42
40
Bad
53
51
Good
d
Sw s
ed
en
Sp
ain
It a
Po l y
rtu
ga
l
Tu
rk
ey
Un
G
ite re
e
d
K i ce
ng
do
m
er
lan
EU
Ne
th
Ge
rm
an
y
Po
lan
d
Fr
an
ce
0
Q 22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[TURKEY: would be] a
good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]?
www.transatlantictrends.org
47
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