Transatlantic Trends 2014

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Transatlantic Trends 2014
Key Findings
www.transatlantictrends.org
2
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Methodology
This is the thirteenth annual Transatlantic Trends survey of public opinion in the United States
and Europe. TNS Opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in 13 countries: the U.S.,
Turkey, Russia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden,
Spain, and the United Kingdom. The surveys were conducted as Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviews in all countries except Poland, Russia, and Turkey, where lower telephone
penetration necessitated the use of face-to-face interviews.
In all countries, a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women (Russia: 1,500), 18
years of age and older, were interviewed. Interviews were conducted between June 2 and
June 26, 2014.
For results based on the national samples in each of the 13 countries surveyed, one can say
with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other
random effects is +/ - 3%.
www.transatlantictrends.org
3
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1. Turkey
2. The Transatlantic Relationship
3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation
5. Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
4
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Turks Increasingly in Favor of EU Membership
Good
100
Bad
Percent
80
60
43
48
53
44
45
37
36
40
35
20
30
29
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q 22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[TURKEY: would be] a
good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]?
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5
Transatlantic Trends 2014
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6
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Plurality of Turks Who Think EU Membership Would be a Good Thing
Think it Will be Good for the Economy
11
12
EU is a community of
democracies
Free movement
16
Maintained peace
22
29
20
Strengthened European
economies
More than one op on
None of the above
Don't Know
Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing?
* Asked of the 53% of Turkish respondents who said EU membership would be a good thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
7
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Plurality of Turks Who Think EU Membership Would be a Bad Thing
Think that the EU Would Undermine Turkey's Culture
Would harm our country’s
economy
11
18
21
Too much authority
8
Would undermine our
culture
Is undemocra c
42
More than one op on
Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing?
* Asked of the 29% of Turkish respondents who said EU membership would be a bad thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
8
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Turkey Increasingly in Favor of Working with EU
2013
2014
Percent
40
20
38
33
28
21
8
14
8 10
15
6
0
Turkey
The EU
should act
alone
Middle
East
The U.S.
Don't
know
9
5
2 4
More than Russia
one
op on
Q7: On interna onal ma ers, with which one of the following do you think Turkey should cooperate most closely?
www.transatlantictrends.org
9
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Turks Increasingly View NATO as Essen al
100
Percent
80
60
53
52
49
44
40
35
38
35
37
38
39
30
20
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q10: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if
respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states']
www.transatlantictrends.org
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Transatlantic Trends 2014
Favorability of Turkey
100
Percent
80
23 24
22 21 31
60
40
20
35
29
42
33 37
72 70
36
54
73
45
59 58 56 53
48 46
39 36
32 28
25 24
Favorable
Unfavorable
Ge
rm
a
Gr ny
ee
c
Fr e
an
ce
It
Sw aly
ed
en
EU
Ne Sp
th ai
er n
l
Un P and
ite or s
d tug
Ki
ng al
do
m
U.
S
Ru .
ss
Tu ia
rk
e
Po y
lan
d
0
Q4.5: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Turkey?
www.transatlantictrends.org
11
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1. Turkey
2. The Transatlantic Relationship
3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation
5. Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
12
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majori es Support U.S., EU Leadership
U.S. desire for EU Leadership
EU desire for U.S. leadership
100
Percent
80
76
73
68
72
72
69
70
63
60
55
56
54
52
55
56
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
40
37
36
36
2006
2007
2008
57
20
0
Q1a-b: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable, somewhat desirable,
somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable?
www.transatlantictrends.org
13
Transatlantic Trends 2014
U.S., EU Leadership Seen as Desirable, Russia Less So
100
Percent
80
60
83
U.S.
73
70
EU
56
40
Russia
39 38
31
27 28
20
20
China
14 16
0
In the United States
In the EU
In Turkey
Q1a-d: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union/Russia/China exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable,
somewhat desirable, somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable?
www.transatlantictrends.org
14
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Obama's Approval Drops, Dramatically in Germany
2009
Percent
20
0
13
8
1
-11
-7
-14
-1
-16
2013
0
-2
-16
-3
-16
-19
-4
-19
-5
-19
-20
-7
-19
-2
-20
-22
-30
-36
-40
2.1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama is handling international policies?
*Sweden data from 2011, Russia data from 2012
www.transatlantictrends.org
15
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Approval of Own Government's Interna onal Policies
100
12
Percent
80
19 25
60
40
83
33 42
38 43 42 52 47 47
58 62 66
Disapprove
74 68
60
20
52 52 51 51 47 47
44
35 33 28
Approve
Un
E
ite Po U
l
d
Ki and
ng
do
m
It a
Fr ly
an
c
Tu e
r
Po key
rt u
ga
l
U.
S.
Sp
a
Gr in
ee
ce
Ru
s
Sw sia
e
Ge den
Ne rm
th an
er y
lan
ds
0
Q3.1: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling interna onal policies?
www.transatlantictrends.org
16
Transatlantic Trends 2014
U.S., EU See Each Other Favorably
100
Percent
80
81
U.S.
67 65
60
EU
57
40
35
34
20
Russia
45
25
20
China
31
20 20
0
In the United States
In the EU
In Turkey
Q4.1-4: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the United
States/the European Union/Russia/China?
www.transatlantictrends.org
17
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Support for Independent Approach to Transatlantic Relationship
100
18
32
28
80
Percent
40
69
19
33
26
24
9
60
19
8
58
49
58
32
20
12
20
19
26
52
40
55
54
50
42
36
47
45
Become
closer
27
36
Remain the
same
35
21
51
50
37
18
14
57
34
42
35
34
20
32
40
34
33
26
22
0
More
independent
approach
2013
Q5: Do you think that the partnership in security and diplomatic affairs between the United States and the European Union should become closer, should
remain about the same, or should the [IN EUROPE: European Union / IN THE US: United States] take a more independent approach from the [IN EUROPE:
United States / IN US: European Union]?
www.transatlantictrends.org
18
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1. Turkey
2. The Transatlantic Relationship
3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation
5. Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
19
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Widespread Effect of Economic Crisis
2009
100
95
Percent
80
91
81 78
76 7473
64
60
47
40
2014
72
60
64 6262
5557
42
20
52
46
58
50
56
47
20
30 31
22
EU
Po
lan
*R d
N e u ss
i
th
er a
lan
Ge ds
rm
a
*S ny
we
de
n
Gr
ee
Po c e
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Tu
rk
ey
U.
S.
Ita
ly
Un
ite Fra
n
d
Ki ce
ng
do
m
0
Q18: Regarding the extent to which you or your family has been personally affect by the current economic crisis, would you say that your
family's financial situa on has been greatly affected, somewhat affected, not really affected, or not affected at all?
* Sweden data from 2011, Russian data from 2012
www.transatlantictrends.org
20
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majorities See EU Membership as Beneficial
100
21
Percent
80
60
24
13
76
71
73
26
26
33
36
42
36
40
29
71
65
66
58
40
28
57
Bad
63
60
63
61
48
49
56
52
55
49
53
45
53
51
Good
40
2013
20
0
Q22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[TURKEY: would be] a
good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]?
www.transatlantictrends.org
21
Transatlantic Trends 2014
EU Membership Good because of Democracy, Free Movement
EU is a community of
democracies
Free movement
11
5
16
31
Maintained peace
Strengthened European
economies
More than one op on
19
27
None of the above
Don't Know
Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing?
* Asked of the 65% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a good thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
22
Transatlantic Trends 2014
...But Bad Because of its Effect on Na onal Economies
5
2 2
Harmed our country’s
economy
Too much authority
11
45
13
Undermined our culture
Is undemocra c
More than one op on
23
None of the above
Don't Know
Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing?
* Asked of the 28% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a bad thing for their country
www.transatlantictrends.org
23
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Majori es Support Na onal Control over Budgets
100
Percent
80
18
18
22
28
32
67
64
34
35
37
37
29
36
60
40
79
77
73
61
61
60
60
60
59
20
EU should
have more
authority
over budgets
Na onal
government
control over
budgets
It a
ly
Sp
ain
Fr
an
G e ce
rm
an
y
Po
lan
Po d
rt u
ga
l
EU
Un
Gr
ite
ee
d
K i ce
ng
do
m
Sw
Ne ede
th
n
er
lan
ds
0
Q21: Some people say that because of recent economic difficul es, the EU should have more authority over Member States’ economic and budgetary policies.
Other people say that each member state should retain this authority for itself. Which view is closer to your own?
www.transatlantictrends.org
24
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Dissa sfac on with Government's Handling of Immigra on
100
Percent
80
20 22 25
23 27 33 34
36 40
46
44 60
60
40
20
77 75 73 71
67 64 64 60
57 51
48
50 67
Approve
Disapprove
38 36
26
Sp
Un
a
ite Gr in
d ee
K i ce
ng
do
m
U.
Tu S .
rk
e
Fr y
an
ce
It a
ly
Ne
th EU
er
la
Ge nd
rm s
Po any
rt u
Sw gal
ed
e
Po n
lan
Ru d
ss
ia
0
Q3.3: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling immigra on from other countries?
www.transatlantictrends.org
25
Transatlantic Trends 2014
What Do We Think Motivates Immigrants?
Work
Seek social benefits
Seek asylum
United with family members
EU
4
Study
None of the above
Don't know
U.S.
4 3
6
5
2 3
7
40
18
46
7
29
26
Russia
Turkey
4
3
12
13
4
17
60
222
22
52
16
Q26a: In your opinion, what do you think is the most common reason for immigrants (from other countries) to come to [COUNTRY]?
www.transatlantictrends.org
26
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Turks Worried About Refugees
3
20
Worried
Not worried
77
Don't know
Q29.5: Can you tell me if you are worried or not worried about refugees?
www.transatlantictrends.org
27
Transatlantic Trends 2014
... and Feel Refugee Policies Should be More Restric ve
10
4
More restric ve
Less restric ve
21
66
About right now
Don't know
Q28: And how about refugees? Do you think that [COUNTRY]'s policies towards refugees should be...
www.transatlantictrends.org
28
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1. Turkey
2. The Transatlantic Relationship
3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation
5. Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
29
Transatlantic Trends 2014
NATO S ll Essen al in U.S., EU
100
Percent
80
60
U.S.
56
62
60
61
60
57
52
55
55
60
62
60
62
58
61
58
59
59
58
56
55
49
44
35
20
Turkey
69
53
40
EU
38
35
37
38
39
30
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q10: Some people say that NATO is s ll essen al to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essen al. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if
respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states']
www.transatlantictrends.org
30
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Li le Support for NATO Missions Outside of Europe, U.S.
80
73
Territorial defense of
Europe
60
59
57
Percent
535553
49
40
434341
57
43
41
3836
Military opera ons outside
of U.S. and Europe
Providing arms or training
Providing arms or training
to countries like Ukraine
20
Stability in places like
Afghanistan
0
U.S.
EU
Turkey
Q11.1-5: Should NATO be engaged in the following missions? 1. Territorial defense of Europe 2. Military opera ons outside of U.S. and Europe 3. Providing
arms or training 4. Providing arms or training to countries like Ukraine 5. Stability in places like Afgahnistan
www.transatlantictrends.org
31
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Most Willing to Risk Conflict with Russia to Support Ukraine
100
Percent
80
60
40
73
67
65
64
59
58
58
20
57
53
52
48
44
42
Ne
U
th .S.
er
lan
ds
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Gr
ee
ce
Tu
rk
ey
Fr
an
ce
EU
Sw
ed
en
Po
lan
d
Ge
rm
an
U n Po y
ite rtu
ga
d
Ki
l
ng
do
m
0
Q16a: Should the European Union (in US: the United States) con nue to provide economic and poli cal support to Ukraine, even if there is a risk of increasing
conflict with Russia?
www.transatlantictrends.org
32
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Plurali es in EU, U.S. Support Sanc ons Against Iran
EU
Turkey
Russia
U.S.
40
Percent
32 32
20
17
23
20 21
11
0
Impose
economic
sanc ons
13 14
17
11
13
9
6
8
11 12
12
10
6
4 6
6 4
Offer economic Use computer Provide support Take military Accept that Iran
could acquire
ac on
technology to to opponents of
incen ves
nuclear weapons
the government
sabotage
nuclear
installa ons
Q14: As you may know, efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons are under way. Which of the following do you think is the best
op on?
www.transatlantictrends.org
33
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Overview
1. Turkey
2. The Transatlantic Relationship
3. The Economy, the EU, and Immigration
4. Transatlantic Security Cooperation
5. Russia
www.transatlantictrends.org
34
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Russia Sees Opportunity with India and China
2
2
7
36
10
14
Emerging powers such as
India and China
CIS states
Countries of the European
Union
Russia should act alone
The United States
29
More than one op on
Don't know
Q8: On interna onal ma ers, with which one of the following do you think Russia should cooperate most closely?
www.transatlantictrends.org
35
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Limited Approval for Handling of Russia Policy
President Obama
Own government
60
40
65
62
49
62 59
56
47
40
56 53
56
52 49
48 48 46
45
27
20
41 41
33
7
G e EU
rm
an
y
Sp
ain
Po
lan
d
Ita
Sw ly
ed
e
Po n
rtu
ga
Un
l
ite Fra
n
d
Ki ce
ng
do
m
0
Ne
th
er
lan
ds
39
35
26 25
U.
S
Tu .
rk
ey
Gr
ee
ce
Ru
ss
ia
Percent
80
Q2.2, 3.2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama/[COUNTRY]’s government is managing rela ons with
Russia?
www.transatlantictrends.org
36
Transatlantic Trends 2014
Key Findings
•
Turks are turning towards Europe
•
Europeans support a more independent transatlantic relationship, U.S.
looks for more burden sharing
•
Opinion of U.S. leadership drops dramatically in Germany
•
Majorities support sanctions against Russia and are willing to risk
increasing conflict to support Ukraine
•
Russians view the U.S. and EU unfavorably, but see opportunity to work
with emerging powers
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37
Transatlantic Trends 2014
For more information about methodology, specific
countries, and the full top-line dataset please visit:
www.transatlantictrends.org
www.facebook.com/gmfus
www.twitter.com/gmfus
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