Debt Management

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January 2011 Edition
Directorate General of Debt Management
Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Table of Contents
Chapter 1
15.
Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2006-2009
Background, Debt Policy & Management and its
Objectives, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
16.
Project Loans Drawing, 2010
17.
Project Loans Drawing, 2010 (chart)
1.
Background (1)
2.
Background (2)
3.
Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
4.
Debt Instruments (1)
Debt Portfolio – Outstanding, Debt Maturity Profile,
Government Securities Development and Foreign
Loans
5.
Debt Instruments (2)
18.
Government Debt Outstanding, 2001-2010
6.
Debt Management: Legal Basis
19.
Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 19982010
20.
Debt Maturity Profile as of Dec 31th, 2010
Chapter 3
Chapter 2
State Budget, Deficit and its Financing
7.
State Budget, fiscal year 2010 & 2011
21.
8.
Fiscal deficit and State Budget Financing, 20002011
Government Securities, December 2007 – Dec
31th, 2010
22.
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
9.
Global Deficit and Deficit in Various Countries,
2007-2010
23.
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 2001-2010
24.
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010
10.
Financing Development, 2008-2011
25.
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)
11.
Debt Financing Development, 1998-2011
26.
Government Debt by Currency, 2001-2010
12.
Realization of Government Securities, 2010
27.
Government Debt by Currency, 2000-2010
13.
Program Loans, 2006-2010
28.
14.
Foreign Loans Financing 2001-2011
Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 20062011
Table of Contents
Chapter 4
40.
Debt Management’s Performance – Debt Performance
Measurement and Comparison, Loan Disbursement,
Government Debt Securities Re-profiling
Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio,
1999-2010
41.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison in
2008 and 2003-2010
29.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 1999-2011
42.
30.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio – Countries Comparison,
1999-2010
External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 20032008
43.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 20082014
Debt per capita in Various Countries, 20012010
44.
Maturity Profile of Tradable Government
Securities, end of 2001 and Dec 31th, 2010
Debt per capita: Countries Comparison in 2008
and 2003-2010
45.
Debt to revenue ratio: Countries Comparison in
2008 and 2003-2008
46.
Interest payment to GDP ratio in Various
Countries, 1998-2007
31.
32.
33.
Debt Switching and Govt. Securities Buyback
34.
Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
35.
Restructurisation 2003
36.
Restructurisation 2006
37.
Restructurisation 2008: interest structure
restructurisation SU-002 & SU-004
38.
Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance, 1997
– Dec 31th, 2010
39.
External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in
2008 and 2003-2008
Chapter 5
Costs of Borrowing – Cost of Fund, Yield Curve,
External Debt’s Costs
47.
Interest to revenue and expense ratio, 20012011
48.
Interest to Total Debt ratio, 2001-2011
49.
Interest payment to revenue ratio in Selected
Countries, in 2008 and 2003-2008
Table of Contents
50.
Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
59.
Spread over 5 years US Treasury Bill
51.
Program Loans: Cost Structure
60.
Spread over 10 years US Treasury Bill
52.
Cost of Fund of Government Securities, Rupiah
denominated
61.
Spread over Feb 38 US Treasury Bill
Yield Curve Trend of Govt. Debt Securities,
foreign currency denominated
Rating, Supreme Audit Agency Opinion, HIPICs and
Conclusion
53.
Chapter 7
Chapter 6
62.
Indonesian Credit Rating
Performance of Secondary Market for Govt.
Securities – Trading Volume, Govt. Securities’
Ownership Structure
63.
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
64.
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)
65.
Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance
Upgrading (1)
66.
Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance
Upgrading (2)
67.
Supreme Audit Agency Opinion on
Government’s Financial Report 2009
68.
GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-relief
Countries
69.
Conclusion
54.
Average Daily Trading of Rp denominated Govt.
Securities in Secondary, as of Dev 31 th 2010
55.
Govt. Securities Ownership Structure by Bank
and Non Bank, as of Dec 31 th 2010
56.
Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership Structure
by Investor Types
57.
Govt. Domestic Securities Ownership share by
Investor Types
58.
Govt. Securities Ownership by foreign investor
classified by maturity
Chapter 1
Background, Debt Policy & Management and
its Objectives, Debt Instruments, Legal Basis
Background (1)
 Debt management and policy is an integral part of fiscal
policy which also constructs economic policy and
management in general.
 Ultimate objectives of economic management:
 Welfare creation and maintenance in the form of:
 Reducing unemployment.
 Poverty alleviation.
 Spur more growth in the eonomy.
 Security and stability enhancement.
 Debt is materialized if state budget is in deficit.
Background (2)

Deficit financing through debt has been perceived to be a standard approach in most of the countries in
our modern world:
 Debt is primary tool to fill fiscal gap and to refinance matured debts;
 Debt refinancing will end up with new and better debt profile in term of risk and fee.

Government debt, in nominal term, has increased due to:
 Legacy debts that need to be refinanced;
 Inevitable effect of currency and banking crises in 1997/1998:



Fiscal deficit financing is also a result of political process and of political decision made in joint by
the Government and the Parliament intended for:







Exchange rate depreciation;
Banking bail out and recapitalization; Part of proceed coming from asset recovery used for debt/banking recap
securities repayment.
Supporting fiscal stimuli through development activity in infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and another kind
of “pump priming” project;
Sustaining people’s welfare program such as PNPM, BOS, Jamkesmas, Raskin, PKH, subsidy;
Supporting real sector’s activity for instance through tax incentive;
Maintaining 20% of state budget to back up education sector;
Enhancing army and defense system;
Continuing bureaucratic reform.
Access to soft loans coming from multilateral donors has been restricted by:
 Indonesia is no longer considered as low income country;
 Upper limit of foreign loans can be received by an economy.
Debt Policy & Management and its Objectives
 Objective
In the long run, debt policy and management are directed to minimize cost and maintain manageable
level of risk.
 Policy





There is no such thing as conditionality imposed by donors;
The Government only receives loans with long maturity & grace period and low cost;
From 2004 onward, loan repayment has been set to be larger than its disbursement;
Relying more on government securities in domestic currency and market:
 Self reliance principle in fiscal deficit financing;
 Pursuing further deepening in domestic market by enlarging potential investor and diversifying
instrument;
 Help to spur efficiency in liquidity management by, for instance, issuance of money market
instrument.
Gaining a larger access to international market (global bond, sukuk global, samurai bond) in order to
strengthen Government’s bargaining power in its role as a Borrower
Debt Instruments (1)
 Government Loan consists of external and domestic debt:

External Loan
World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and bilateral
donors (Japan, Germany, France, etc.) and Export Credit.



Program Loan:
Intended for budget support and its disbursement is a function of the realization of
stated policy matrix aiming the targets set up in MDGs scheme (poverty alleviation,
education, and corruption eradication), people empowerment and also policy
related with climate change and infrastructure development.
Project Loan :
To support infrastructure project in transportation, energy etc and also poverty
alleviation project.
Domestic Loan



Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant Procurement Procedure and
Loan/Grant Channeling;
Coming from state-owned enterprise, local government and local state-owned
enterprise;
To finance policy related with the effort to support local industry, infrastructure
project for public service and investment generating revenue project.
Debt Instruments (2)
 Government securities (SBN) in local and foreign currency
denominated, tradable and non-tradable, fixed and variable:

Government Debt Securities/Surat Utang Negara (SUN)


T-Bills: short-term (up to 1 year);
Govt. Bond (> 1 year)



Coupon Bond
 Tradable: ORI, FR/VR bond, Global bond
 Non tradable: SRBI for bank recap, bond issued for Bank Indonesia’s recap
and re-structurization of banking industry
Zero coupon
Government Islamic securities/Sukuk (SBSN) in domestic and foreign
currency denominated in the scheme of Ijarah, Musyarakah, Istisna,
etc


Islamic T-Bills;
IFR/Ijarah Fixed Rate; Global Sukuk; SDHI/Indonesian Haj Fund Sukuk.
Debt Management: Legal Basis
 Laws and Regulations:
Law Number 19/2008 on Government Islamic Securities
 Law Number 24/2002 on Government Securities
 Government Regulation No. 2 Year 2006 on Loan/Grant Procurement
Procedure and Loan/Grant Channeling
 Government Regulation No. 54 Year2008 on Domestic Loan Procurement
Procedure and Domestic Loan Channeling

 Setting up, among other things, good governance principle:
Foreign debt cannot be separated from state budget and subject to the
approval from parliament
 A good policy coordination (MoF, Ministry of Planning & BI) is essential for
having sound debt management
 Close and efficient supervision on government securities’ trading
activities in secondary market by the stock market authority
 Accountability and transparency in whole range of debt management
span

Chapter 2
State Budget, Deficit and Its
Financing
State Budget, Fiscal Year 2010 & 2011
[ Trillion IDR ]
2010
A. Total Revenue and Grants
I. Domestic Revenue
1. Taxes
2. Non Taxes
II. Grants
B. Expenditures
I. Central Govt. Expenditures
1. Ministries/Agencies
2. Non Ministries/Agencies
ie:
a. Interest Payment
- Domestic
- External
b. Subsidies
II. Transfers to Regions
C. Primary balance
D. Surplus/ (Deficit) Budget (A-B)
% Deficit to GDP
E. Financing
I. Debt
II. Non Debt
Financing Gap
2011
APBN
APBN-P Real Smt I
949.7
948.1
742.7
205.4
1.5
1,047.7
725.2
340.1
385.1
992.4
990.5
743.3
247.2
1.9
1,126.1
781.5
366.2
415.3
115.6
77.4
38.2
157.8
322.4
17.6
(98.0)
-1.6%
98.0
95.5
2.5
-
105.7
71.9
33.8
201.3
344.6
(28.1)
(133.7)
-2.1%
133.7
108.3
25.4
-
%
443.7
443.5
337.6
105.9
0.2
395.8
234.2
104.5
129.7
44.7%
44.8%
45.4%
42.8%
11.2%
#DIV/0!
43.4
30.3
13.1
51.7
161.6
91.3
47.9
1.6%
54.7
51.5
3.1
102.6
41.0%
42.1%
38.8%
25.7%
46.9%
#DIV/0!
35.1%
30.0%
28.5%
31.2%
-324.8%
#DIV/0!
-35.8%
-76.2%
#DIV/0!
40.9%
47.6%
12.3%
R-APBN
APBN
1,086.4
1,082.6
839.5
243.1
3.7
1,202.0
823.6
410.4
413.2
1,104.9
1,101.2
850.3
250.9
3.7
1,229.6
836.6
419.2
417.4
116.4
80.4
36.0
184.8
378.4
0.7
(115.7)
-1.7%
115.7
123.5
(7.8)
-
115.2
187.6
393.0
(9.4)
(124.7)
-1.8%
124.7
127.0
(2.4)
-
gap
18.5
18.5
10.7
7.8
27.5
13.0
8.8
4.2
(1.2)
% prbhn.
1.7%
1.7%
1.3%
3.2%
0.0%
#DIV/0!
2.3%
1.6%
2.1%
1.0%
-1.0%
2.8
1.5%
14.6- #DIV/0!
3.8%
(10.2)
- -1401.3%
#DIV/0!
(9.0)
7.8%
-0.1%
- #DIV/0!
9.0
7.8%
3.6
2.9%
5.4
-69.4%
Fiscal Deficit and State Budget Financing, 2000-2011
[ Trillion IDR ]

140
120
[ % to GDP]
Since 2005, government securities have been played role as primary
instrument of financing
Refinancing strategy to achieve a better debt profile explains the surge of
government securities in 2005-2010

100
7
134
125
6
5
89
80
4
60
1.8
SBN - net
Notes:
State Budget 2000-2009 used PAN/LKPP-Audited figures
+ State Budget (Revision) 2010
2004
2005
Loans - net
0
1
108
25
17
(2)
2006
(1)
(16)
(18)
(24)
(27)
(28)
Source: MoFDeficit (Surplus) APBN
2003
-
(1)
(10)
(3)
(2)
10
2002
2
1
127
99
9
4
86
23
2.1
1.6
0.1
(40)
2001
1.3
0.9
57
1
-
29
0.5
(20)
2000
29
36
42
1.1 14
35
7
7
19
1.3
6
10
-
1.7 24
20
30
24
1.2
16
-
20
38
2.4
40
40
3
50
(2)
2007
2008
Non Debt - net
2009
2010+
2011++
Deficit APBN, % to GDP (RHS)
Global Deficit and Deficit in Various Countries, 2007-2010
2007
2008
2009
2010
Global
(0.7)
(2.6)
(8.1)
(6.4)
Developed
(1.0)
(3.1)
(9.3)
(7.4)
US
Japan
(1.2)
(2.5)
(3.2)
(6.4)
(10.6)
(13.5)
(8.3)
(6.7)
Euro Area
(0.6)
(1.9)
(5.7)
(6.3)
(2.6)
(6.2)
(13.0)
(13.1)
Emerging Market
0.5
(0.8)
(3.9)
(2.9)
Latin America
Brazil
Mexico
(0.2)
(2.2)
-
(1.5)
-
(2.7)
(2.7)
(2.5)
2.4
(3.0)
(2.5)
Emerging Asia
0.8
(1.4)
(3.7)
(2.6)
China
Indonesia
0.6
(1.3)
(0.4)
(0.1)
(3.0)
(1.6)
(2.0)
(2.1)
0.6
-
(5.4)
(4.2)
(5.0)
(2.0)
5.4
(3.3)
(3.9)
4.1
(3.8)
(5.0)
(7.6)
(3.5)
(4.0)
(5.0)
UK
CEEMA
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Notes:
1. Nominal on % to GDP
2. Specifically Indonesia, 2007 s.d. 2009 used LKPP figures, and 2010 used APBN-P figures
Source : JPMorgan as of June 2009

Fiscal deficit in Indonesia is lower than other countries.

Fiscal rule stated on Law Number 17/2003 has fixed upper limit of deficit in the level of 3%
of GDP. In consequence, additional debt to finance fiscal deficit is also limited.
Financing Development, 2008-2011
[billion IDR]
[ Billion IDR]
Financing Need
Deficit
Debt Repayment
SBN Repayment and Buyback
Debt Service
Others
Domestic Bangking
Govt. Investement fund and Asset recovery
Contigency and Provisional fund
Natinal Education Development fund
Loan to PLN
Aid channeling
Financing Source
Debt
Govt. securities, bruto
Pragman Loan
Project Loan
Aid Channeling
Domestic Loan
Non Debt
Privatization
Asset Management
Domestic Banking
Financing Gap
Govt. Securities Cash Flow, Netto
Foreign Loan Cash Flow, Netto
Domestic Loan Cash Flow, Netto
Non Debt Cash Flow
2008
2009
2010*
(115,579) (224,292) (297,695)
(4,121)
(103,768)
(40,333)
(63,435)
(7,689)
(2,500)
(5,189)
(88,619)
(117,098)
(49,067)
(68,031)
(18,575)
(12,395)
(6,181)
(133,748)
(124,677)
(70,541)
(54,136)
(39,271)
(12,924)
(1,050)
(1,000)
(7,500)
(16,797)
195,529
248,257
297,695
176,468
126,249
30,100
14,929
5,189
19,061
82
2,820
16,159
207,200
148,538
28,938
23,544
6,181
41,057
41,057
79,950
23,965
(0)
85,916
(18,406)
11,372
99,471
(15,550)
37,392
107,500
(156)
1,000
25,403
Notes:
State Budget 2008-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited
*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
R-APBN
Financing Need
2011
APBN
gap
% changes
(276,085)
(274,167)
1,917
-0.7%
Deficit
(115,677)
(124,657)
(8,980)
7.8%
Debt Repayment
SBN Repayment and Buyback
Principal of foreign loans Repayment
Aid Channeling
(144,066)
(84,000)
(48,076)
(11,990)
(133,542)
(74,000)
(47,818)
(11,725)
10,524
10,000
258
265
-7.3%
-11.9%
-0.5%
-2.2%
(16,342)
(12,806)
(2,500)
(1,036)
(15,968)
(13,932)
(1,000)
(1,036)
374
(1,127)
1,500
-
-2.3%
8.8%
-60.0%
-
276,085
274,167
(1,917)
-0.7%
267,554
209,484
57,070
17,685
10,230
7,455
27,396
11,990
1,000
260,587
200,654
58,933
19,813
12,358
7,455
27,396
11,725
1,000
(6,967)
(8,830)
1,863
2,128
2,128
(265)
-
-2.6%
-4.2%
3.3%
12.0%
20.8%
-2.2%
-
8,530
340
533
7,657
13,580
340
583
12,657
5,050
50
5,000
59.2%
9.4%
65.3%
0
115,677
125,484
0
124,657
126,654
(0)
8,980
1,170
7.8%
0.9%
(2,996)
(609)
Non Debt Financing
Domestic Banking
Government Investation & BUMN Restructuritation
National Education Development Fund
Liability Insurance
Financing Source
Debt
Govt. Securities issuence
Foreign Loans Drawing
Program Loan
Reguler
Sector Program Loan
Central Govt. Project Loan
Project Loan to Aid Channeling
Domestic Loan Drawing
249,818
178,041
29,422
24,559
16,797
1,000
47,877
Non Debt
1,200 Privatization
1,200 Asset Management
45,477 Domestic Banking
Financing Gap
Net Financing Cash Flow
Govt. Securities Cash Flow, Netto
Foreign Loan Cash Flow, Netto
Domestic Loan Cash Flow, Netto
Non Debt Cash Flow
1,000
1,000
(7,811)
(2,388)
2,386
-79.7%
-
-
5,424
-69.4%
Debt Financing Development, 1998-2011
[ Trillion IDR ]
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**
Govt. Securities (netto)
Issuence, bruto
Domestic
Foreign Currency
Bond Redemption and Buyback
Loan (netto)
Drawing, bruto
100.0 401.6 150.1
100.0 401.6 150.1
9.0
9.0
-1.9
2.0
-3.1
11.3
6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 107.5 126.7
32.3 47.0 61.0 100.0 126.2 148.5 178.0 200.7
100.0
401.6
150.1
9.0
2.0
11.3
23.4
22.5
42.6
86.4
86.9
101.7
136.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.0
24.5
18.5
13.6
39.3
46.8
41.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.9 -14.4 -25.5 -24.5 -25.1 -42.8 -40.3
-49.1
-70.5
-74.0
0.5 -28.1 -10.3 -26.6 -23.9 -18.4 -15.5
20.4 18.4 26.8 26.1 34.1 50.2 58.7
0.8
70.8
0.4
58.9
21.0 29.4 10.2 10.3
51.0 49.6 17.8 26.2
6.6
18.9
Program Loan
24.9
25.2
0.8
6.4
7.2
1.8
5.1
12.3
13.6
19.6
30.1
28.9
29.4
19.8
Project Loan
26.1
24.4
17.0
19.7
11.7
18.6
13.4
14.6
12.5
14.5
20.1
29.7
41.4
27.4
Project Loan to Aid Channeling
Aid Channeling
Principal repayment
Domestic Loan Drawing, bruto
-
-
-30.0 -20.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-5.2
-7.6 -15.9 -12.3 -19.8 -46.5 -37.1 -52.7 -57.9 -63.4
-
121.0 431.0 160.3 19.2
Debt Financing, Total
Notes:
State Budget 2004-2009 PAN/LKPP - Audited
*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
**) State Budget 2011
4.7
-2.6 -21.2 12.3
9.4 33.3 67.5
-
-
11.7
-6.2
-16.8
-11.7
-68.0
-
-54.1
1.0
-47.8
1.0
83.9 108.3 127.0

Net additional foreign loan recorded as negative since 2004

Total debt financing was negative in 2003-2004 thanks to the proceeds coming
from asset recovery and SOE privatization
Realization of Government Securities Issuance
2010 (as of Dec, 31th 2010)
APBN-P
Redemption & Buy back 2010
SBN Netto (APBN)
Buyback
Realization
% realization
to APBN-P
93.85%
80.74%
24.31%
67,540,415
107,500,400
3,000,000
63,383,543
86,798,880
729,437
178,040,815
150,911,860
84.76% *)
Government Debt Securities/GDS
123,945,000
83.87%
Domestic GDS
- ON
- ZC
- SPN
- ORI
International GDS
105,395,000
68,100,000
29,295,000
8,000,000
18,550,000
Inssuance Need 2010
Government Islamic Securities
IFR
SBSN Ritel
SDHI
SBSN Valas
Notes :
- Assumption for exchange rate on issuance plan 2010 refers to APBN IDR 9,200/USD
- Exchange rate of January 20, 2010 applies to the realization of International GDS IDR 9.275/USD
26,966,860
100.00%
6,150,000
8,033,860
12,783,000
*) The Government plans to reduce the release of SBN, Rp. 15 5 trillion.
According to this plan, the actual issuance of SBN 98.38% of target
Program Loans, 2006-2010
[ Million USD ]
No
1
2
3
4
5
Lender
WB
Program Name
1. Development Policy Loan (DPL) 1 s.d 7
2. Infrastructure Development Policy Loan (IDPL) 1 s.d 4
3. BOS-KITA Refinancing 1 sd. 2
4. PNPM Refinancing
5. Climate Change
Sub Total WB
ADB
1. State Audit Reform Sector Development Program (STARSDP)
2. Development Policy Support Program (DPSP) 1 s.d 6
3. Local Government Finance Reform and Governance Reform
4. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development Program (IRSDP) 1-3
5. Capital Market Development Cluster Program (CMDCP) 1 dan 2
6. Poverty Reduction and MDG Acceleration Program
7. Local Government Finance Reform
8. Countercyclical Support Facility (CSF)
Sub Total ADB
JBIC/ JICA
1. Development Policy Loan (cofinancing dengan World Bank) 1 s.d 7
2. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development Program 1 dan 2
3. Indonesia Disaster Recovery and Management
4. Climate Change Program Loan 1 s.d 3
5. Economic Stimulus and Budget Support Loan
6. Others
Sub Total JBIC/ JICA
France
Climate Change Program Loan 1 s.d 3
Sub Total France
IDB
Liquid Funds
Sub Total IDB
TOTAL
Notes :
DPL VI consists of $ 100 million and DPL VII of USD 100 million
2006
2007
2008
2009
600
600
750
400
47
750
250
553
600
200
200
744
600
600
1,197
1,553
1,744
200
200
200
200
200
400
2010
APBN APBN-P
280
300
400
600
200
164
544
200
1,708
200
300
350
600
100
900
100
100
200
830
200
500
100
100
200
500
700
200
300
300
100
300
300
600
300
300
300
200
200
500
300
300
100
400
200
200
-
500
200
200
-
-
-
-
-
1,900
2,727
2,953
2,444
3,208
1,500
Foreign Loans Financing, 2001-2011
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011**
70
58.9
54.0
52.5
45.0
50
34.1
[ Triliun Rupiah ]
30
26.2
18.9
26.8
20.4
26.1
18.4
10
10.3
6.6
-10
0.5
-0.2
-10.3
-12.3
-15.9
-19.8
-30
-23.9
-26.6
-28.1
-15.5
-37.1
-50
-46.5
-52.7
-57.9
-70
-90
-18.4
-0.6
Foreign Loan Drawing, bruto
-54.1
-63.4
Foreign Loan Principal Repayment
-59.5
-68.0
Foreign Loan Financing (netto)
[ Trillion IDR ]
2001
Foreign Loan Drawing, bruto
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011**
26.15
18.89
20.36
18.43
26.84
26.11
34.07
45.01
52.48
53.98
58.93
Foreign Loan Principal Repayment
(15.88)
(12.26)
(19.81)
(46.49)
(37.11)
(52.68)
(57.92)
(63.44)
(68.03)
(54.14)
(59.54)
Foreign Loan Financing LN (netto)
10.27
6.63
0.55
(28.06)
(10.27)
(26.57)
(23.85)
(18.42)
(15.55)
(0.16)
(0.61)
Notes:
*) State Budget (Revision) 2010
Project & Program Loans Drawing, 2006-2010
as of Dec 31th, 2010
[Trillion IDR]
2010
Realization as of Dec 31th, 2010
INSTRUMENT
1. Program Loan
2006
2007
2008
2009
APBN
APBN-P
Nominal % to APBN
13.53
19.90
30.28
28.57
24.44
29.51
29.05
ekuivalen on billion US$
1.50
2.11
2.74
3.04
2.44
3.21
3.23
a. World Bank
5.50
5.66
12.91
14.65
17.44
16.63
b. A D B
5.51
8.47
9.17
5.06
2.00
c. JEPANG
0.90
3.77
4.87
6.07
2.20
2.79
d. PERANCIS
e. IDB
f. Lain-Lain
2. Project Loan
ekuivalen on billion US$
TOTAL
ekuivalen dlm miliar US$
Notes :
Nominal on Trillion IDR
1.83
1.79
% to
APBN-P
118.9%
98.4%
15.34
88.0%
92.2%
6.44
6.39
319.7%
99.3%
3.00
3.68
4.59
153.0%
124.7%
2.00
2.76
2.73
136.3%
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
83.6%
83.5%
101.2%
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
12.54
14.46
14.93
23.54
24.52
24.56
20.50
2.20
2.04
2.35
2.50
2.45
2.67
2.28
26.06
34.36
45.21
52.11
48.96
54.07
49.55
3.70
4.14
5.09
5.54
4.90
5.88
5.51
Project Loan Drawing, 2010
as of Dec 31th
Budget 2010 *
Realization as of Dec 31th, 2010
%
CREDITOR COUNTRIES
Million USD
Billion IDR
Million USD
Billion IDR
247.77
2,251.55
10.2%
9.3%
AUSTRALIA
33.44
310.75
1.4%
1.3%
GERMANY
29.07
265.60
1.2%
1.1%
IBRD
371.83
3,392.87
15.3%
14.0%
IDA
140.67
1,285.11
5.8%
5.3%
IDB
65.92
594.45
2.7%
2.4%
JAPAN
960.34
8,697.03
39.5%
35.8%
SPAIN
18.74
173.41
0.8%
0.7%
CHINA
92.31
835.67
3.8%
3.4%
FRANCE
33.93
310.49
1.4%
1.3%
KOREA
61.74
570.78
2.5%
2.3%
172.84
1,558.73
7.1%
6.4%
27.37
248.94
1.1%
1.0%
2,255.97
20,495.38
92.8%
84.3%
ADB
SINGAPORE
OTHERS
2,431.14
24,311.44
USD
IDR
Notes :
Preliminary figures
used SAPSK 2010
source from Dit. SP
DJA as of March
23, 2010
Project Loan Drawing, 2010
as of Dec 31th
[%]
[ Billion IDR ]
9,000
45%
8,000
40%
35.8%
7,000
35%
6,000
30%
5,000
25%
4,000
20%
3,000
2,000
1,000
14.0%
15%
9.3%
1.3% 1.1%
10%
6.4%
5.3%
2.4%
3.4%
0.7%
1.3% 2.3%
-
1.0%
5%
0%
Drawing on Billion IDR
% to Budget ( RHS )
Chapter 3
Debt Portfolio – Outstanding, Debt
Maturity Profile, Government Securities
Development and Foreign Loans
Government Debt Outstanding, 2001-2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Des '10
Nominal
a. Loan (on billion US$)
+
%
58.90
63.74
68.91
68.59
63.09
62.02
62.25
66.69
65.02
68.10
36.5%
Bilateral *)
35.16
40.37
46.19
46.48
42.16
41.07
41.03
44.28
41.27
41.89
22.5%
Multilateral **)
20.68
20.61
19.98
19.48
18.78
18.84
19.05
20.34
21.53
23.13
12.4%
Comercial ***)
2.41
2.20
2.19
2.17
1.82
2.01
2.08
1.98
2.15
3.02
1.6%
Suppliers ***)
0.48
0.39
0.37
0.29
0.17
0.11
0.08
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.0%
Others ***)
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
63.52
73.30
76.64
71.29
70.51
82.34
85.26
82.78
104.20
118.39
63.5%
1.00
3.50
5.50
7.00
11.20
15.23
18.02
9.7%
100.37
53.8%
b. Govt. Securities (on billion US$)
-
Foreign currency denominated
Domestic currency denominated
Cental Government Debt, Total
(on billion US$)
Cental Government Debt, Total
-
-
63.52
73.30
76.64
70.29
67.01
76.84
78.26
71.58
88.97
122.42
137.04
145.55
139.88
133.60
144.36
147.51
149.47
169.22
186.48 100.0%
1,273.18
1,225.15
1,232.04
1,299.50
1,313.29
1,302.16
1,389.41
1,636.74
1,590.66
1,676.68
100.0%
660.65
655.31
648.75
653.03
658.67
693.12
737.13
783.86
836.31
902.43
53.8%
9.29
34.41
49.61
65.93
122.64
143.15
161.97
9.7%
36.5%
(ekuivalen on Trillion IDR)
includes SBN domestic denominated
(on trillion IDR)
-
SBN foreign denominated
-
-
(on tillion IDR)
Loan foreign denominated
(on trillion IDR)
Exchange rate (IDR/US$1)
612.52
569.84
583.30
637.18
620.22
559.43
586.36
730.25
611.20
612.28
10,400
8,940
8,465
9,290
9,830
9,020
9,419
10,950
9,400
8,991
Notes:
+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010
*
Includes semi commercial
** Some figures are semi commercial
*** Includes commercial
Trend of Government Debt Outstanding, 1998-2010
[ trillion IDR ]
1,600
1,400
Government securities issuance more importantly in
domestic market is aimed to refinance maturing debt,
balance foreign loan and strengthen domestic financial
market
612
1,200
1,000
583
613
583
570
559
620
637
730
611
906
979
2008
2009
586
800
438
600
400
453
655
649
662
693
743
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
502
200
-
661
803
652
1,064
100
1998
1999
Loan
2010+
Govt. Securities
[ %]
Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010+
Loan
82%
47%
47%
48%
47%
47%
49%
47%
43%
42%
45%
38%
36%
Govt. Securities
18%
53%
53%
52%
53%
53%
51%
53%
57%
58%
55%
62%
64%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Central Govt. Debt, Total
Notes:
+ very preliminary figure, as of Nov 30, 2010
In most of the cases, outstanding of foreign loan increases
when there is domestic exchange rate depreciation
Debt Maturity Profile as of 2010
[Trillion IDR]
140
4
120
Govt. obligation
issued for bank
recap (BI/SRBI-001)
100
47
36
49
38
39
6
Year
Loan
Govt. Securities
Year
Loan
Govt. Securities
2025
33%
67%
2028
2027
5
5
7
3
34
14
1
20
1
Govt. Securities
2010
0%
0%
2011
41%
59%
2012
44%
56%
2013
48%
52%
2014
47%
53%
2015
48%
52%
2016
51%
49%
2026
65%
35%
2027
41%
59%
2028 2029
30% 100%
70%
0%
2030
18%
82%
2031 2032
39% 100%
61%
0%
2017
49%
51%
2018
44%
56%
2033 2034
3% 100%
97%
0%
2019
40%
60%
2023
49%
51%
1
2040-2055
Loan
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
0
2010
-
26
2039
23 25 21 18 28 12
21
15
1
2
2038
9
2037
10
2036
17
2035
42 41
21
55
1
14
2034
20
47
31 25
2033
60 56 56
52
68
2032
67
2031
40
2030
44
60
127
37
2029
47 51 51
80
2020
34%
66%
2021
57%
43%
2022
50%
50%
2024
48%
52%
2035 2036
11% 100%
89%
0%
2037
5%
95%
2038 2039 2040
2% 100% 100%
98%
0%
0%
Government Securities Outstanding,
December 2007 – Nov 30th, 2010
Government Securities
A. Tradable
1. Rupiah Denominated
a. Govt. Debt Securities (SUN)
1) Surat Perbendaharan Negara
2) Zero coupon bond
3) Fixed Rate bond+)
4) Variable Rate bond
b. Govt. Islamic Securities (SBSN)
1) Fixed Rate Islamic bond++)
2. Foreign Denominated
a. Govt. bond (milllion US$)
b. Govt. Islamic bond (million US$)
c. Govt. bond (million JPY)
B. Non Tradable
a. Promissory note to central bank
b. T-Bill
c. Govt. Islamic securities/ SDHI
GOVT. SECURITITES, TOTAL (A +B)
Dec '07
Jun '08
Dec '08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Nov-10
31-Dec-10
543,680
623,548
648,335
705,068
724,898
777,865
804,860
803,191
477,747
520,228
525,695
553,227
581,748
621,226
642,814
641,215
477,747
4,169
10,500
294,453
168,625
520,228
5,250
19,023
330,338
165,617
520,995
10,012
11,491
353,558
145,934
542,971
24,812
11,451
361,625
145,083
570,215
24,700
8,686
393,543
143,286
596,741
28,595
2,680
422,571
142,895
617,097
29,795
2,512
441,995
142,795
615,498
29,795
2,512
440,396
142,795
-
-
4,700
4,700
10,256
10,256
11,533
11,533
24,485
24,485
25,717
25,717
25,717
25,717
65,933
7,000
-
103,320
11,200
-
122,640
11,200
-
151,841
143,150
156,639
162,046
161,976
14,200
14,200
16,200
16,200
16,200
650
650
650
650
650
-
35,000
35,000
95,000
95,000
259,404
258,208
258,160
256,410
254,561
258,124
261,965
261,215
259,404
-
258,208
-
258,160
-
253,724
251,875
250,196
249,182
248,432
-
-
-
-
-
2,686
2,686
7,928
12,783
12,783
803,084
881,756
906,495
961,478
979,459
1,035,989
1,066,825
1,064,406
10,225
9,400
101.70
9,083
102.58
9,013
107.13
8,991
110.29
Notes:
- Nominal on Billion IDR
- +) Includes ORI
- ++) Includes Sukuk Ritel
- Exchange rate (IDR/US$1)
- Exchange rate (IDR/JPY1)
9,419
9,225
10,950
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 1998-2010
[Billion USD]
31 Des - 2010
Countries
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Nmnl % Total
JAPAN
22.03
26.00
24.16
21.88
24.97
28.38
28.64
25.58
24.47
24.63
29.61
27.61
30.49
44.8%
6.13
7.21
7.67
8.04
8.65
8.77
9.04
9.16
9.41
10.18
10.87
10.89
11.15
16.4%
WORLD BANK 11.32
12.09
12.42
12.17
11.53
10.67
9.90
9.11
8.74
8.37
8.96
10.10
11.37
16.7%
Others*)
16.91
16.42
16.85
16.82
18.58
21.09
21.01
19.25
19.40
19.07
17.24
16.43
15.04
22.1%
TOTAL**)
56.39
61.73
61.10
58.90
63.74
68.91
68.59
63.09
62.02
62.25
66.69
65.02
68.04
ADB
*)
Notes:
*) Including outstanding of other bilateral & multilateral donors
**) Government securities excluded
Foreign Loans by Creditor Types, 2000-2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
29%
14%
29%
31%
31%
31%
31%
31%
22%
26%
25%
16%
17%
13%
16%
17%
45%
16%
14%
13%
13%
21%
18%
15%
14%
14%
14%
13%
37%
39%
41%
42%
40%
40%
40%
45%
42%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010*)
15%
15%
16%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Others
Notes:
*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
ADB
World Bank
Japan
Multilateral donor (WB and ABD) and Japan has been acting
in providing soft loan with long maturity and low cost
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010
[ Million USD ]
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,846
1,755
1,641
1,615
1,784
2,016
424
623
662
804
776
837
Processing industry
2,593
2,387
2,415
2,659
2,291
2,218
Electricity, Gas and Water supply
7,232
6,607
6,157
6,838
5,473
5,818
10,669
10,277
10,049
11,145
12,251
12,871
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant
1,158
1,036
955
960
821
777
Transportation and Communication
3,477
3,144
2,897
2,723
2,368
2,226
Financial, Leasing and Financial services
6,593
7,103
7,913
8,768
8,723
9,635
Services
13,274
13,509
13,730
15,252
15,463
16,772
Others sector
15,827
15,580
15,833
15,926
15,072
14,927
63,094
62,021
62,253
66,689
65,021
68,099
Farm, Agriculture, Foresty and Fisheries
Mining and Quarrying
Construction
TOTAL
Source : MoF & BI
Notes :
-As of December 31th, 2010
-Economic Sector Grouping is based on the standard used by Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistics
Foreign Loans by Sector, 2005-2010 (chart)
Source : MoF & BI
[ Million USD ]
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Farm, Agriculture, Foresty and Fisheries
Mining and Quarrying
Processing industry
Electricity, Gas and Water supply
Construction
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant
Transportation and Communication
Financial, Leasing and Financial services
Services
Others sector
Notes : As of December 31th, 2010
Government Debt by Currency, 2001-2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010***
on Original Currencies
IDR*)
USD**)
JPY**)
EUR**)
660.7
655.3
648.7
653.0
658.7
693.1
737.1
783.9
836.3
902.4
28.0
27.9
24.4
24.2
26.4
27.5
28.4
32.8
37.1
40.5
2,751.2 2,855.5 3,242.8 3,137.4 3,184.4 3,066.0 2,941.9
2,820.5
2,713.8
2,689.8
7.2
6.7
6.0
5.4
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.0
8.1
7.8
-------------------------- Multiple Currencies --------------------------
Others
Ekuivalen on Billion US$
IDR
63.5
73.3
76.6
70.3
67.0
76.8
78.3
71.6
89.0
100.4
USD
28.0
27.9
24.4
24.2
26.4
27.5
28.4
32.8
37.1
40.5
JPY
21.0
24.0
30.3
30.5
27.0
25.8
25.9
31.2
29.4
33.0
EUR
7.1
8.6
10.5
10.9
9.6
10.2
10.5
9.5
8.6
7.1
Others
2.7
3.2
3.7
3.9
3.5
4.0
4.4
4.4
5.2
5.4
122.4
137.0
145.5
139.9
133.6
144.4
147.5
149.5
169.2
186.4
Exchange rate IDR/US$1
10,400.00
8,940.00
8,465.00
9,290.00
9,830.00
9,020.00
9,419.00
10,950.00
9,400.00
8,991.00
Exchange rate JPY/US$1
131.00
118.75
107.11
102.74
117.83
119.01
113.39
90.33
92.42
81.53
Exchange rate EUR/US$1
1.12
0.95
0.79
0.73
0.84
0.76
0.68
0.71
0.70
0.75
Total
Notes:
Nominal on billion*) Nominal IDR on Trilion Rupiah, **) Nominal on billion, ***) as of dec 31th ,2010
Government Debt by Currency, 2000-2010
100%
6%
6%
6%
18%
17%
18%
7%
90%
80%
21%
8%
22%
7%
7%
7%
6%
20%
18%
18%
21%
19%
19%
5%
4%
17%
17%
22%
21%
53%
55%
2009
2010*)
70%
60%
21%
23%
20%
17%
17%
20%
22%
50%
40%
30%
53%
52%
53%
53%
50%
50%
53%
53%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
20%
48%
10%
0%
Others
Notes:
*) as of Dec 31th, 2010
EUR
JPY
USD
2008
IDR
On average, the proportion of debt in the amount between 2000 to 2010
more than 50%, although in 2008 decreased slightly due to exchange rate
depreciation due to the global financial crisis
Foreign Loans Drawing by Financing Type, 2006-2011
[ Trillion IDR]
[%]
80%
35
70%
30
60%
25
50%
39.12
40
20
24.56
30%
20%
19.81
29.42
23.54
28.57
14.93
30.28
14.46
5
19.90
13.53
10
12.54
15
40%
10%
-
0%
2006*
PROGRAM LOAN
2007*
2008*
2009*
PROJECT LOAN
2010**
% PROGRAM LOAN (RHS)
2011**
% PROJECT LOAN (RHS)
[Trillion IDR]
Loans Instrument
2006*
%
2007*
%
2008*
%
2009*
%
2010**
%
2011***
%
PROGRAM LOAN
13.53 52%
19.90 58%
30.28 67%
28.57 55%
29.42 55%
19.81
34%
PROJECT LOAN
12.54 48%
14.46 42%
14.93 33%
23.54 45%
24.56 45%
39.12
66%
26.06
34.36
45.21
52.11
TOTAL
Notes :
*) LKPP/PAN Realization figures
**) APBN-P 2010 figures
53.98
58.93
Chapter 4
Debt Management’s Performance – Debt
Performance Measurement and Comparison, Loan
Disbursement, Government Debt Securities Reprofiling
Debt to GDP Ratio, 1998-2010
[ trillion IDR ]
8,000
[%]
120%
7,000
6,000
85%
100%
89%
77%
5,000
80%
67%
61%
4,000
57%
60%
47%
39%
3,000
35%
33%
2,000
28%
40%
27%
26%
20%
1,000
0
0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Debt Outstanding
LOAN
Govt. Securities
Total
2004
2005
2006
GDP
2007
2008
2009
2010* 2011**
Debt ratio to GDP (RHS)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
438
583
613
570
583
637
620
559
586
730
611
502
652
661
655
649
662
693
743
803
906
979
940 1,234 1,273 1,225 1,232 1,300 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,591
Additional debt has helped to spur more growth in the
economy. As a result, debt-to-GDP ratio has significantly
decreases from 57% at the end of 2007 to around 32% in 2009.
The ratio in 2009 is far better than in the pre-crisis period of
the late 1990s.
Source : MoF & BI, reprocessed
[ Trillion IDR ]
2010*
612
1,087
1,699
2011**
612
1,214
1,826
Notes:
PAN/LKPP – Audited Realization figures
*) very preliminary, used APBN-P 2010 assumption.
Debt Service Ratio = Interest + Amortization
Debt to GDP Ratio – Countries Comparison, 1999-2010
Indonesia is one of the top performers in the non investment grade peer group (Argentina, the Philippines
and Turkey) and this still holds even if one compares it with advanced countries such as US, UK,
198.8
Japan and Italy.
180
140
121.3
100
82.8
62.2
60.3
60
54.9
50.7
25.5
20
1999
2000
Argentina
2001
Jepang
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
2002
2003
Indonesia
2004
Filipina
2005
Turki
2006
Italia
2007
Inggris
2008
2009
2010
Amerika Serikat
Debt to GDP Ratio in Various Countries, 2008-2014
Brazil
Germany
India
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
G - 20
Advanced G - 20 Countries
Emerging Market G - 20 Countries
2008f
2009f
2010f
2014f
65.4
64.7
62.9
54.1
68.7
76.1
80.1
77.2
80.6
82.7
82.9
71.6
202.5
217
225.1
222.3
50.4
61
68.7
76.2
68.7
81.2
90.2
99.5
65.5
72.5
76.7
76.8
83.2
93.2
99.8
103.5
35.7
37.6
37.8
32
Source : International Monetary Fund, “The State of Public Finances; Outlook and Medium-Term Policies After the 2008 Crisis”

Indonesia is in the list of the Emerging Market G-20 countries

Taking a look at the additional debt in developed economies, they
accumulate more debt than their developing counterpart
Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities,
in the end of 2001 and Nov 30th, 2010
[Trillion IDR]
Since 2002, the GoI has conducted reprofiling strategy to improve government
debt securities’s maturity profile, hence reducing refinancing risk
75
70
as of 31 Dec, 2010
End of 2001
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2038
2037
2035
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-
Notes:
Government Securities/SBN consist of Government Debt Securities/SUN (2001 & 2009), and Government Islamic Securities/Sukuk (2009)
Debt Switching and Buyback
Debt Switching : strategy to reduce refinancing risk
Auction
Frequency
Series to be
Switched
2005
1x
9 series
2006
12 x
7 s.d. 21 series < 1 year s.d. 5 years
2007
9x
2008
Year
Tenor of Series to be
Switched
< 1 year s.d. 4 years
Offered Tenor
7,721
5,673
5 s.d. 19 years
54,177
31,179
12 s.d. 21 series < 1 year s.d. 6 years
11 s.d. 20 years
30,681
15,782
2x
21 s.d. 31 series < 1 year s.d. 4 years
14 s.d. 15 years
7,490
4,571
2009
6x
24 s.d. 28 series < 1 year s.d. 5 years
12 s.d. 15 years
8,663
2,938
as of 31 Dec, 2010
6x
11 s.d. 28 series
< 1 year s.d. 8 years 10 s.d. 21 years
8,349
3,920
117,081
64,063
Total
15 years
Volume of Bid Volume of Bid
Received
Accepted
(billion IDR)
(billion IDR)
Buyback : startegy to stabilize market and reduce debt outstanding
Series to be
Buyback
Tenor of Series to be
Buyback
2003
2x
4 s.d. 7 series
1 year s.d. 3 years
2004
1x
5 series
3 years s.d. 5 years
1,962
2005
4x
2 s.d. 8 series
< 1 year s.d. 4 years
5,158
2007
2x
11 s.d. 13 series <1 year s.d. 5 years
2,859
2008
3x
4 s.d. 8 series
2009
1x
4 series
13 x
1 s.d. 11 series
Year
as of 31 Dec, 2010
Total
Volume of Bid
Accepted
(billion IDR)
8,127
Auction
Frequency
< 1 year s.d. 19 years
2,375
< 1 year
8,528
< 1 year s.d. 17 years
3,201
32,210
Debt Swap to Reduce Debt
Debt swap agreement with several donors has successfully reduced debt outstanding in the amount of EUR
149.3 million and realization in the amount of EUR 82.7 million, USD 46.2 million and realization in the amount
of USD 18.8 million, AUD 75 million and realization in the amount AUD 0
Country
Debt Swap
1
2
Germany Debt Swap I
Italy
USA
Project
Title
Cancelation
Amount
Commitment
Realization
4
5
6
3
Elementary Education
EUR
12.8 EUR
25.6 EUR
25.6
Debt Swap II
Junior Secondary Education
EUR
11.5 EUR
23.0 EUR
0.0
Debt Swap IIIa
Financial Assistance for Environmental Investements EUR
for Micro and Small Enterprises Project
6.3 EUR
12.5 EUR
3.2
Debt Swap IIIb
Strengthening the Development of National Parks in
Fragile Ecosystems
EUR
6.3 EUR
12.5 EUR
0.0
Debt Swap IV
School Reconstruction and Rehabilitation in
Earthquake Area in Yogyakarta and Central Java
EUR
10.0 EUR
20.0 EUR
20.0
Debt Swap V
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tubercolosis and Malaria EUR
(GFATM)
25.0 EUR
50.0 EUR
30.0
Debt Swap I
Housing and Setlement
EUR
5.7 EUR
5.7 EUR
3.9
USD
24.2 USD
24.2 USD
16.7
USD
20.0 USD
22.0 USD
2.1
AUD
37.5 AUD
75.0 AUD
0.0
EUR
77.5 EUR
149.3 EUR
82.7
USD
44.2 USD
46.2 USD
18.8
AUD
37.5 AUD
75.0 AUD
0.0
Debt Development Swap Tropical Forest Conservation Act/TFCA
Australia Debt Swap
Debt2Health
TOTAL
Restructuring 2003
Agreement between the Government and Bank Indonesia on
August 1, 2003 on the settlement of liquidity support to
banking industry (BLBI) and financial relationship between the
Government and Bank Indonesia

Agreed BLBI amounting Rp 144.536.094.294.530


SU-001 Rp 80.000.000.000.000
SU-003 Rp 64.536.094.294.530
Both series reissued with new single series SRBI-01/MK/2003 Rp
144.536.094.294.530 starting 1st August 2003.
 Repayment arranged under burden sharing scheme:




In the case where BI’s monetary liabilities are greater than 10%, the Government
will use its surplus accrued to repay remaining principal of SRBI-01
If it is lower than 3%, the Government shall pay a charge until BI’s monetary
liabilities filled up to that 3% figure.
Interest Rate of SRBI-01/MK/2003: 0,1% per annual (fixed, semi
annual)
Restructuring 2006
Post-restructuring
Pre-restructuring

SU-002/MK/1998:










Date of issuance : May 28, 1999;
Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearly basis.
After indexation, of 3% interest payment as made
on semi-annual basis calculated from principal.
Principal amortization is in semi-annual basis
starting from 1st June 2003 to 1st December 2018.
Interest arrear and indexation SU-002 & SU004 IDR54.862.150.308.421:


Interest arrear: Rp16.929.470.080.766
Indexed to inflation: Rp37.932.680.227.655
SU-002/MK/1998:







Nominal: Rp20.000.000.000.000,1% interest will be repaid in semi-annual basis.
Principal was amortized semi-annually, starting
from 1st April 2025 (no indexation to inflation
applies).
SU-004/MK/1999:

SU-004/MK/1999:


Date of issuance: October 23, 1998;
Nominal: Rp20.000.000.000.000,Principal is indexed to inflation, on a yearly basis.
After indexation, of 3% interest payment as made
on semi-annual basis calculated from principal.
Principal amortization is in semi-annual basis
starting from 1st October 2003 to 1 April 2018.

Nominal: Rp53.779.500.000.000,3% interest will be repaid in semi-annual basis.
Principal was amortized semi-annually, starting
from 1st December 2025 (no indexation to
inflation applied).
SU-007/MK/2007



Nominal: 54.862.150.308.421
Non tradable, 0.1% interest per annum
Principal was installed exponentially by a cash or
tradable SUN until 2025.
Restructuring 2008: Restructuring for Interest Rate
of SU-002 & SU-004
 Based on Its report on Central Govt Expenditure dated October 16-28, 2008,
Working Committee agreed among others that SU-002 and SU-004 will be
restructured in 2009 with interest rate applied was 0.1% or with benchmark and
terms condition of SRBI-01.
 Ministry of Finance and BI agreed that interest rate of both SU-002 and SU-004 will
be reduced to 0.1% from 1% and 3% respectively, starting on 1st January 2009 .
SU and SRBI Position
as of Dec 31th, 2010
Series
Issued
Maturity
SU-002/MK/1998
03-Oct-98
2010 - 2025
19,420,583,064,850.00
SU-004/MK/1999
28-May-99
2010 - 2025
52,315,360,704,352.00
SRBI-01/MK/2003
07-Aug-03
01-Aug-33
126,697,947,827,429.00
SU-007/MK/2007
01-Jan-06
2007 - 2025
49,998,285,712,461.00
TOTAL
• Amortization of SU-007 was conducted since 2007
• Amortization of SU-002 and SU-004 will be conducted in 2010
Nominal
248,432,177,309,092.00
Foreign Loans Disbursement Performance,
1998 – Dec31th, 2010
Undisbursed loans has lessened showing efficiency improvement of the use of the proceeds of foreign
loan
Disbursement performance increases as project readiness criteria has been set up and correctly applied.
In addition, project monitoring and evaluation has been installed in foreign loan management


[Billion USD]
100%
200
80%
150
60%
100
34.6%
29.8%
40%
25.2%
21.4%
50
17.1%
13.9%
6.2%
6.0%
5.4%
5.3%
5.8%
5.3%
5.2%
20%
0%
0
% Undisbursed (RHS)
Undisbursed
Disbursement
Net Commitment
[Billion USD]
Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Net Commitment
171.8
178.4
166.4
157.3
166.2
178.4
172.2
164.5
170.7
181.7
201.1
205.5
219.4
Disbursement
112.3
125.3
124.5
123.6
137.7
153.5
161.6
154.6
161.4
172.1
189.6
194.7
208.0
59.5
53.1
42.0
33.7
28.5
24.8
10.6
9.9
9.3
9.7
11.6
10.8
11.4
Undisbursed
Net commitment = the agreed loan amount; disbursement = disbursed of loan.
2010
External Debt Service: Countries Comparison in 2008
and 2003-2008
Indonesia has shown a moderate level of external debt service to export ratio and was
on the third rank in reducing the ratio (in 2003-2008) while Brazil and Colombia were
on the first and second.
External Debt Service, changes 2003-08
External Debt Service, 2008
(in percent of exports)
(In percent of exports)
Malaysia
Brazil
Thailand
Colombia
South Africa
Indonesia
Poland
Thailand
Chile
Chile
Indonesia
Turkey
India
Poland
Philippines
Malaysia
Colombia
South Africa
Brazil
Philippines
Turkey
India
0
Sumber: IMF
5
10
15
20
25
30
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Debt Service to International Reserve Ratio, 1999-2010
25%
21.7%
21.6%
20.6%
20%
18.1%
18.0%
17.9%
16.8%
15.2%
15%
13.8%
13.4%
12.3%
11.5%
10%
5%
0%
1999
Notes:
* Preliminary
** Very preliminary
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
2009** 2010***
Since 2004, debt service to international
reserve ratio has been continuing to decrease.
This concern with liquidity improvement and
ability to endure (external) shock
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Countries Comparison
in 2008 and 2003-2010
Again, Indonesia is one of the top performers in reducing the level of debt
to GDP ratio both in the group developing and developed economies
Public Debt, 2010
(in percent of GDP)
Public Debt, changes 2003-2010
(in percent of GDP)
Turki
Thailand
Polandia
Malaysia
Kolombia
Jepang
Inggris
Indonesia
India
Filipina
Chile
Brasil
Australia
Amerika Serikat
Afrika Selatan
Turki
Thailand
Polandia
Malaysia
Kolombia
Jepang
Inggris
Indonesia
India
Filipina
Chile
Brasil
Australia
Amerika Serikat
Afrika Selatan
0
Source: IMF
100
200
-30
-10
10
30
50
External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2008 and 2003-2008
Figure 1. External and Public Debt
A moderate and manageable level of external debt to GDP ratio is also another
significant achievement resulted from an effective debt management and policy
External Debt, changes 2003-08
(In percent of GDP)
External Debt, 2008
(In percent of GDP)
Brazil
Philippines
India
Indonesia
Colombia
Brazil
Thailand
Colombia
Malaysia
Malaysia
South Africa
Chile
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
Turkey
Turkey
India
Chile
Poland
Poland
South Africa
10
Source: IMF
20
30
40
50
60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Debt per Capita in Various Countries, 2001-2010


Debt per capita in China and India is certainly much lower than Indonesia due to their demographic
factor
Brazil, a rating-investment-grade country, shows a higher debt per capita than Indonesia which is in fact
a non-investment-grade country
5,000
50,000
4,500
45,000
4,000
40,000
3,500
35,000
3,000
30,000
2,500
25,000
2,000
20,000
1,500
15,000
1,000
10,000
500
5,000
-
2001
2002
Brazil
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
2003
2004
Indonesia
2005
Filipina
2006
Turki
2007
Cina
2008
India
2009
Italia [RHS]
2010
Debt per capita: Countries Comparison
in 2008 and 2003-2008
Indonesian debt per capita is among the lowest and it is considered to
fluctuate insignificantly
Public Debt per Capita, 2010
(in US$)
Public Debt per Capita, changes 2003-2010
(in US$)
Turki
Thailand
Polandia
Malaysia
Kolombia
Inggris
Indonesia
India
Filipina
Chile
Brasil
Australia
Amerika Serikat
Afrika Selatan
Turki
Thailand
Polandia
Malaysia
Kolombia
Inggris
Indonesia
India
Filipina
Chile
Brasil
Australia
Amerika Serikat
Afrika Selatan
0
Source: IMF
10000
20000
30000
0
5000
10000
15000
Debt to Revenue Ratio: Countries Comparison
in 2008 and 2003-2008
Debt to revenue ratio in Indonesia has been stabilized to a
moderate level and recorded the fastest decrease
Public Debt, changes 2003-08
(In percent of revenues)
Public Debt, 2008
(In percent of revenues)
Indonesia
Philippine
Turkey
India
Colombia
South
Chile
Brazil
Thailand
Malaysia
Australia
Poland
US
UK
Japan
Chile
Australia
South Africa
Colombia
Poland
UK
Thailand
Brazil
Indonesia
Malaysia
Turkey
US
Philippines
India
Japan
10
Source: IMF
110
210
Public Debt per Capita, 2008
310
410
510
610
-190
-140
-90
-40
Public Debt per Capita, changes 2003-08
(in US$)
10
60
Interest Payment to GDP Ratio in Various Countries,
1998-2007
Interest payment to GDP ratio of Indonesia is better than countries like Turkey and The
Philippines and rating-investment-grade countries such as Brazil and Italy.
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1998
Japan
1999
Indonesia
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
2000
2001
Philippines
2002
Turkey
2003
2004
Italy
2005
United Kingdom
2006
2007
United States
Chapter 5
Costs of Borrowing – Cost of Fund, Yield Curve,
External Debt’s Costs
Interest To Revenue and Expense Ratio, 2000-2010
29.0%
25%
29.4%
30%
Cost of fund is continuing to be more efficient
9.4%
10.4%
2009
9.4%
10.0%
2008
10.6%
9.0%
11.0%
9.0%
10.5%
11.3%
11.9%
12.4%
13.2%
12.8%
5%
14.6%
10%
15.5%
17.4%
19.2%
27.2%
15%
25.5%
20%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
as a share of revenue
Revenue
Expense
Debt Service Payment
2001
300,600
341,563
87,142
2002
298,527
322,180
87,667
2003
340,928
376,505
65,351
2004
403,105
427,177
62,486
2007
2010*
2011**
as a share of expense
2005
493,919
509,633
65,200
2006
636,153
667,129
79,083
2007
706,108
757,650
79,806
Notes:
Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited
* projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
2008
981,609
985,731
88,430
2009
848,763
937,398
93,782
[Billion IDR]
2010*
2011**
992,399 1,104,902
1,126,147 1,229,558
105,650
115,209
Interest to Total Debt 2001-2011
[ Trillion IDR ]
[% ]
2,000
18%
1,800
16%
1,600
14%
1,400
12%
1,200
10%
1,000
800
6.8%
7.2%
5.3%
600
8%
6.1%
4.8%
5.0%
5.7%
5.4%
5.9%
6.3%6%
6.2%
400
4%
200
2%
-
0%
2001
2001
2003
2004
Total Debt
Total Debt
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Interest Debt Payment
2010*
2011**
Ratio (RHS)
[Trillion IDR]
2001
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011**
1,273.18
1,225.15
1,232.04
1,299.50
1,313.29
1,302.16
1,389.41
1,636.74
1,590.66
1,699.00
1,826.04
79.08
79.81
88.34
93.78
105.65
115.21
Interest Debt Payment
87.14
87.67
65.35
62.49
65.20
Notes:
Realization figures 2000-2008 based on APBN 2000-2008 PAN/LKPP-Audited
* projection figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
** projection figures based on APBN 2011
Malaysia In Selected Countries,
Interest Payment To Revenue Ratio
Brazil
In 2008 and 2003-2008
Poland
US
Interest payment to revenue ratio of IndonesiaUKis on moderate level while Turkey
and the Philippines have in a significant way brought
-500 down the ratio
4500 even further
9500
Public Debt Interest Payment, 2008
(In percent of revenues)
Public Debt Interest Payment, changes 2003-08
(In percent of revenues)
Australia
Chile
Poland
UK
Malaysia
Japan
South Africa
Indonesia
US
Colombia
Brazil
Philippines
India
Turkey
Turkey
Philippines
Indonesia
India
Brazil
South Africa
Chile
Malaysia
Colombia
Poland
Japan
Australia
US
UK
0
Source: IMF
10
20
30
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
Interest Payment Realization 2002-2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
71%
71%
63%
65%
69%
68%
68%
68%
68%
29%
29%
37%
35%
31%
32%
32%
32%
32%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 *
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Interest payment of External Loan
Interest payment of Domestic Loan
[ trillion IDR ]
Loan Interest Payment
a. Interest payment of
Domestic Loan
b. Interest payment of
External Loan
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
Nml
%
87.70 100.00 65.40 100.00 62.40 100.00 65.20 100.00 79.10 100.00 79.80 100.00 88.60 100.00 93.78 100.00 105.65 100.00
62.30 71.04 46.40 70.95 39.60 63.46 42.60 65.34 54.90 69.41 54.10 67.79 59.90 67.61 63.76 67.98
71.9 68.01
25.40
28.96
19.00
29.05
Notes: *) figures based on APBN (revision) 2010
22.80
36.54
22.60
34.66
24.20
30.59
25.70
32.21
28.70
32.39
30.03
32.02
33.8
31.99
Program Loans: Cost Structure
Creditor/ Program
Trem & Condition
Tenor
Interest
Fee*
Asian Development Bank
1. Development Policy Support Program (DPSP) 5
2. Capital Market Development Cluster
15.0
15.0
LIBOR + 0.2%
LIBOR + 0.2%
0.15%
0.15%
World Bank
1. Development Policy Loan 6
2. Biaya Operasional Sekolah (BOSKITA)
3. Infrastructure Development Policy Loan 3
24.5
25.0
24.5
LIBOR + 0.05%
LIBOR + 0.05%
LIBOR + 0.05%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
Japan (JBIC/JICA)
1. Climate Change Program
2. Economic Stimulus and Budget Support Loan
3. Infrastructure Reform Sector Development
4. Development Program Loan 5
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
0.15%
JPY LIBOR
0.70%
0.70%
-
France
1. Climate Change Program
15.0
EURIBOR - 0.3%
-
Notes:
As of Nov 30, 2010
* ADB loans normally impose commitment fee while World Bank requires so called front-end fee
** Loan proceeds not to directly finance the climate change project
Yield Curve of Domestic Government Securities
[Procentage]
[in percentage]
12.00
10.00
Tenor
8.00
6.00
31-Dec-10
Dec '09
Jun '09
1Y
5.36
6.72
7.66
2Y
5.82
7.61
8.36
3Y
6.27
8.23
9.08
4Y
6.34
8.75
9.50
5Y
6.78
8.80
9.81
6Y
6.96
9.06
10.10
7Y
7.16
9.24
10.31
10Y
7.57
10.04
11.05
15Y
8.78
10.64
11.96
20Y
9.24
10.72
12.18
30Y
9.68
10.97
12.30
4.00
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y10Y
31 Dec '10
15Y
20Y
Dec '09
30Y
Jun '09
Declining cost of fund of Domestic Government Securities reflects increasing market confidence
as a response of prudent fiscal policy and debt management
Yield Curve of Indonesian Global Bond
[Procentage]
12
10.58
10
9.94
9.617
9.218
9.538
8
6.842
6.098
6
5.3285.401
5.186
4.976
4.5254.595
4.486
4.299
4.222
4.016
3.707
4
3.284
31-Dec-08
2.703
31-Dec-09
31-Dec-10
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Chapter 6
Performance of Secondary Market for Govt.
Securities – Trading Volume, Govt. Securities’
Ownership Structure
Average Daily Trading of Domestic Govt. Securities,
as of Dec 31, 2010
[ Frequency]
[ Trillion IDR]
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
450
Until 2007, the increasing trend of average
daily trading showed a better market
liquidity. Global financial crisis in 2008 has
significantly reduced trading activities.
However, the average volume remains
higher than 2005’s figure when the crisis
hit.
400
350
300
5.0
250
4.0
200
3.0
150
2.0
100
1.0
50
0.0
0
A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D
2004
2005
Volume
2006
2007
2008
Average Daily Volume per Year
2009
2010
Frequency - RHS
Government Securities Ownership - Bank and Non Bank,
as of Dec 31, 2010
Trillion IDR
700
30%
 The more diversified investor is demonstrated by the shrinkage of
bank ownership and the augmentation of non-bank, foreign and
retail investor
600
25%
 Increasing offshore ownership is a sign of better market
confidence
500
20%
400
15%
300
10%
200
5%
100
BANK
Notes:
Non-Bank including Government institution
NON-BANK
% foreign to Total - RHS
Dec'10
Oct'10
Aug'10
Jun'10
Apr'10
Feb'10
Dec'09
Oct'09
Aug'09
Jun'09
Apr'09
Feb'09
Dec'08
Oct'08
Aug'08
Jun'08
Apr'08
Feb '08
Dec '07
Oct '07
Aug'07
Jun'07
Apr'07
Feb'07
Dec'06
Oct'06
Aug'06
Jun'06
Apr'06
Feb'06
Dec'05
Oct'05
Aug'05
Jun'05
Apr'05
Feb'05
Dec'04
Oct'04
-
Aug'04
0
Domestic Government Securities Ownership (absolute)
Dec '07
BANK
State Own Bank recap
Private Bank recap
Non Bank recap
BPD Recap
Syariah Bank
268.65
154.67
72.63
35.37
5.97
Dec'08
Dec'09
Mar'10
Jun'10
Aug'10
Sep'10
Oct'10
Nov'10
31-Dec-10
258.75
254.36
237.74
232.67
230.92
233.96
225.19
228.04
217.27
144.72
61.67
45.17
6.50
0.69
144.19
59.98
42.40
6.02
1.77
141.03
54.32
36.78
3.62
1.99
137.79
55.07
35.46
1.68
2.68
136.84
55.00
34.09
1.84
3.17
137.55
56.23
35.10
1.90
3.18
135.32
52.70
32.70
1.58
2.89
134.30
56.11
33.36
1.48
2.79
2.95
Government
Institutions
14.86
23.01
22.50
18.71
19.12
19.11
14.61
15.43
12.89
17.42
Bank Indonesia *
14.86
23.01
22.50
18.71
19.12
19.11
14.61
15.43
12.89
17.42
NON-BANK
194.24
243.93
304.89
336.71
369.43
395.32
396.51
402.37
401.89
406.53
Mutual fund
Insurance
Foreign
Pension fund
Securities
Others
26.33
43.47
78.16
25.50
0.28
20.50
33.11
55.83
87.61
32.98
0.53
33.87
45.22
72.58
108.00
37.50
0.46
41.12
44.18
78.04
132.46
37.24
0.42
44.37
48.84
77.44
162.05
36.48
0.13
44.49
52.27
80.61
177.99
37.10
0.30
47.05
51.56
79.94
182.26
36.57
0.20
45.98
51.91
77.78
191.99
36.29
0.14
44.25
52.27
77.74
191.20
36.53
0.15
44.00
51.16
79.30
195.76
36.75
0.13
43.43
TOTAL
477.75
525.69
581.75
593.16
621.23
645.36
645.08
642.98
642.81
641.21
Notes:
• Nominal in trillion IDR
• Included SBSN ownership
• Foreign holders include banks, financial institution, etc;
• Others include individuals, corporates, foundations, etc.
*) Include SUN repo transaction to BI, since February 8, 2008
Domestic Government Securities Ownership (%)
Dec '07
Dec'08
Dec'09
Mar'10
Jun'10
Aug'10
Sep'10
Oct'10
Nov'10
31-Dec-10
BANK
56.23%
49.22%
43.72%
40.08%
37.45%
35.78%
36.27%
35.02%
35.47%
State Own Bank recap
32.38%
27.53%
24.79%
23.78%
22.18%
21.20%
21.32%
21.05%
20.89%
Private Bank recap
15.20%
11.73%
10.31%
9.16%
8.86%
8.52%
8.72%
8.20%
8.73%
Non Bank recap
7.40%
8.59%
7.29%
6.20%
5.71%
5.28%
5.44%
5.08%
5.19%
BPD Recap
1.25%
1.24%
1.03%
0.61%
0.27%
0.28%
0.29%
0.25%
0.23%
0.13%
0.30%
0.34%
0.43%
0.49%
0.49%
0.45%
0.43%
0.46%
Syariah Bank
33.88%
Government
Institutions
3.11%
4.38%
3.87%
3.15%
3.08%
2.96%
2.26%
2.40%
2.00%
2.72%
Bank Indonesia*
3.11%
4.38%
3.87%
3.15%
3.08%
2.96%
2.26%
2.40%
2.00%
2.72%
NON-BANK
40.66%
46.40%
52.41%
56.77%
59.47%
61.26%
61.47%
62.58%
62.52%
63.40%
Mutual fund
5.51%
6.30%
7.77%
7.45%
7.86%
8.10%
7.99%
8.07%
8.13%
7.98%
Insurance
9.10%
10.62%
12.48%
13.16%
12.47%
12.49%
12.39%
12.10%
12.09%
12.37%
16.36%
16.66%
18.56%
22.33%
26.09%
27.58%
28.25%
29.86%
29.74%
30.53%
Pension fund
5.34%
6.27%
6.45%
6.28%
5.87%
5.75%
5.67%
5.64%
5.68%
5.73%
Securities
0.06%
0.10%
0.08%
0.07%
0.02%
0.05%
0.03%
0.02%
0.02%
0.02%
Others
4.29%
6.44%
7.07%
7.48%
7.16%
7.29%
7.13%
6.88%
6.84%
6.77%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Foreign
Total
Notes:
Nominal in trillion IDR
Included SBSN ownership
Foreign holders include banks, financial institution, etc;
Others include individuals, corporates, foundations, etc.
*) Include SUN repo transaction to BI, since February 8, 2008
Offshore’s Ownership of Domestic Government Securities,
Classified by Tenor
[Rp miliar]
200,000
Mayoritas investor asing merupakan ‘long-term investors’, dimana
kepemilikan mereka atas SBN bertenor panjang (lebih dari 5 th)
mencapai 67,04% per 31 Desember 2010.
160,000
120,000
67,08%
67,04%
19,95%
18,14%
3,04%
4,64%
9,93%
10,18%
80,000
40,000
0
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
31-Dec-10
Total
78,156
87,606
107,997
132,459
148,511
144,089
162,055
172,221
177,991
182,265
191,991
191,199
195,755
>5
52,294
61,055
76,702
98,355
112,448
110,991
116,675
118,854
122,199
125,956
128,489
128,257
131,232
>2-5
17,243
20,374
21,361
21,660
23,135
20,953
28,632
31,737
32,503
33,274
38,375
38,143
35,511
>1-2
4,374
4,491
5,119
8,017
7,135
6,621
6,742
8,345
8,689
5,462
4,623
5,811
9,077
0-1
4,246
1,687
4,816
4,427
5,793
5,524
10,006
13,284
14,601
17,573
20,505
18,988
19,935
Spread over UST-5 Years
400
200
0
DATE
31-Dec-09
30-Jun-10
30-Sep-10
29-Oct-10
30-Nov-10
27-Dec-10
28-Dec-10
29-Dec-10
30-Dec-10
31-Dec-10
-200
TURK-15
-400
31-Dec-09
INDO-15
28-Feb-10
COLM-15
30-Apr-10
30-Jun-10
31-Aug-10
TURK-15
4.59
4.45
3.09
2.69
3.12
3.31
3.31
3.29
3.31
3.33
INDO-15
4.43
4.01
3.04
3.03
2.82
3.24
3.41
3.19
3.17
3.28
31-Oct-10
US-5Y
2.78
1.72
1.14
1.00
1.24
1.75
1.87
1.73
1.76
1.70
COLM-15
2.17
2.35
1.59
1.68
1.60
1.82
1.94
1.64
1.84
1.73
31-Dec-10
Spread over UST-10 Years
300
200
NAME
100
31-Dec-09
30-Jun-10
30-Sep-10
29-Oct-10
30-Nov-10
27-Dec-10
28-Dec-10
29-Dec-10
30-Dec-10
31-Dec-10
0
31-Dec-09
PHIL-20
5.48
5.13
3.92
3.85
4.02
4.29
4.29
4.37
4.34
4.34
US-10Y
3.85
2.88
2.39
2.43
2.54
3.08
3.23
3.09
3.11
3.04
28-Feb-10
COLM-20
5.82
5.23
4.18
3.93
4.68
4.76
4.90
4.72
4.85
4.90
INDO-20
TURK-20
5.13
3.97
3.90
4.14
4.57
4.67
4.55
4.53
4.60
30-Apr-10
5.77
5.63
4.44
4.05
4.55
4.86
4.87
4.87
4.86
4.82
30-Jun-10
PHIL-20
COLM-20
INDO-20 GMTN
TURK-20
31-Aug-10
31-Oct-10
31-Dec-10
Spread over UST-Feb 38
400
COLM-37
INDO-38
TURK-38
TURK-40
300
200
NAME
100
0
31-Dec-09
30-Jun-10
30-Sep-10
29-Oct-10
30-Nov-10
27-Dec-10
28-Dec-10
29-Dec-10
30-Dec-10
31-Dec-10
31-Dec-09
COLM-37
6.62
6.03
5.21
5.08
5.61
5.91
5.98
5.93
5.95
5.93
INDO-38
6.83
6.34
5.30
5.32
5.74
6.07
6.21
6.13
6.15
6.10
28-Feb-10
US-FEB 38
4.62
3.87
3.63
3.94
4.06
4.36
4.50
4.40
4.39
4.30
TURK-38
TURK-40
6.75
6.67
5.75
5.41
5.74
5.97
5.97
5.97
5.97
5.96
30-Apr-10
6.76
5.76
5.45
5.80
6.00
6.00
6.01
6.00
5.99
30-Jun-10
31-Aug-10
31-Oct-10
31-Dec-10
Chapter 7
Rating, Supreme Audit Agency
Opinion, HIPICs and Conclusion
Indonesian Credit Rating
 Rating Improvement Determinants

The Indonesian economy resilience in the face of global crisis in 20072008

Political stability and law enforcement improvement

Prudential government debt management:



Decrease of debt to GDP ratio
Timeliness of debt obligations payment
Increasing investors / lenders confidence
 Sovereign Credit Rating (Fitch, Moody’s, S&P)

Improvement rating one notch down the potential performance yield of
new foreign currency of government securities approximately 75-115bps
 Country Risk Classification (CRC)

Credit risk measurement of a country by OECD member countries

Range 0-7 (high risk)

Decrease 1 level CRC potentially reduce the cost of foreign loans,
especially new export credit facility of about 130-150bps
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (1)
show encouraging progress
Indonesia Rating Profile 1999 - 2010
Tahun
Rating
S&P
Fitch
Moody's
CRC
R&I
JCRA
1999
CCC+
B-
B3
6
B-
-
2000
B-
B-
B3
6
B-
-
2001
CCC
B-
B3
6
B-
-
2002
CCC+
B
B3
6
B-
B
2003
B
B+
B3
6
B-
B
2004
B+
B+
B2
6
B
B+
2005
B+
BB-
B2
5
BB-
B+
2006
B+
BB-
B2
5
BB-
BB-
2007
BB-
BB-
B1
5
BB+
BB
2008
BB-
BB
Ba3
5
BB+
BB
2009
BB-
BB
Ba3
5
BB+
BB+
2010
BB
BB+
Ba2
4
BB+
BBB-
S&P: 2 notch goes to
investment grade
Fitch: 1 notch goes to
investment grade
Moody’s: 2 notch goes to
investment grade
R & I : 1 notch goes to
investment grade
JCRA : investment grade
already
Indonesian Credit Rating Development (2)

Selective default was experienced by the economy in 2001 and 2003
Rating has significantly upgraded after 2004
BBB+14
Krisis
ekonomi
1998
BBB 13
BBB- 12
Rekapitalisasi
Perbankan
Reprofiling VR & HB,
Asset-Bond Swap, &
penerbitan SUN
jk panjang
Lelang penerbitan SUN
secara reguler,
program Buyback
Lelang penerbitan SUN
secara reguler,
program Buyback, &
Debt Swtiching
Lelang penerbitan SUN
secara reguler, program
Buyback, Debt
Swtiching, &
diversivikasi instrumen
Baa1
13
Baa2
12
Baa3
11
Ba1
BB
10
10
Ba2
BB-
9
9
Ba3
B+
8
8
B1
B
7
7
B2
B-
6
6
B3
5
Caa1
4
Caa2
3
Caa3
2
Ca
1
C
S&P’s menaikan rating ke BB
per 12 Maret 2010
CCC+ 5
CCC
4
CCC- 3
CC
2
R/C
1
Moodys’s menaikan rating ke Ba2
per 16 September 2009
S&P sempat
menurunkan
rating ke Selective
Default namun
direvisi kembali 2
hari kemudian
Fitch’s menaikan rating ke BB+
per 25 Januari 2010
SD/DDD
1997
1997
-
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
S&P's
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
Fitch's
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
Moody's (RHS)
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
Non Investment grade
Non Investment grade
BB+ 11
14
Investment
grade
Investment
grade

Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (1)
 Moody’s on 16 Sept. 2009 upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from Ba3 to Ba2,
with highlights as the following:


“The upgade was prompted by the Indonesian economy’s relatively strong resilience to the global
recession as well as its healthy medium-term growth prospects”
“The upgrade was also prompted by an improving credit profile derived from Indonesia’s ongoing
policy prudence, structural reforms, and appropriate debt management”
 On 25 January 2010, Fitch’s upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from BB to BB+
with outlook stable, highlights as the following:

“The rating action reflects Indonesia's relative resilience to the severe global financial stress test of
2008 - 2009 which has been underpinned by continued improvements in the country's public
finances, a fundamental sovereign rating strength, and a material easing of external financing
constraint. ”
 On 12 March 2010, S&P upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from BB- to BB with
outlook positive, highlights as the following:

"The positive outlook reflects Standard & Poor's expectation that the political pressures experienced
by the administration will prove to be only a temporary distraction from implementing its fiscal,
administrative, and structural reform agenda,"
 On 2 April 2010, CRC upgraded credit rating of Indonesia from clasification 5 to
clasification 4, with highlights as the following:

“The main factor supporting the upgrades is Indonesian impressive macroeconomic indicators as the
economy is one of the most resilient amid the global financial crises and Indonesia is one of the few
countries that experienced positive economic growth in 2009. Improvement in macroeconomic
performance and economic stability is the result of a combination of good and forward looking
economic policy, ongoing structural reforms, as well as good debt management”
Indonesian Sovereign Rating – Performance Upgrading (2)
 On 13 July 2010 JCRA upgraded credit rating of Indonesia into Investment Grade
from BB+ to BBB-, with highlights as the following:

“JCR explained that the upgrade reflects (i) enhanced political and social stability along
with the progress in democratization and decentralization, (ii) sustainable economic
growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, (iii) alleviated public debt
burden as a result of prudent fiscal management, (iv) reinforced resilience to external
shocks stemming from the foreign reserves accumulation and an improved capacity for
external debt management and (v) efforts made by the second Yudhoyono administration
to outline the framework to deal with structural issues such as infrastructure
development.”
 On 14 October 2010, R & I changed Indonesia outlook from stable to positive with
a rating of BB, highlights as the following:

“The outlook revision and rating affirmation reflects that Indonesia is considered
successful in maintaining high growth despite the global financial turmoil. R&I believes
an upgrade to the ‘investment grade’ or BBB rating category is possible once Indonesia is
set to sustain balanced economic growth by boosting investment in infrastructure.”
Supreme Audit Agency Opinion on Government’s Financial
Report 2009
 Indonesian Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) opines unqualified
(Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) to the Financial Report of
all accounts related to debt management and administration
 Debt management’s accountability continues to improve


Internal control system
Compliance to the existing regulation
Bolivia
Cameroon
Nicaragua
Zambia
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Countries
Mauritania
Ghana
Benin
Mali
Burkina Faso
Tanzania
Gambia, The
Madagascar
Mozambique
Uganda
Rwanda
Niger
Sierra Leone
Malawi
Ethiopia
1,010
635
771
310
959
591
791
341
536
460
2001
424
258
318
255
229
272
292
272
218
223
196
169
171
144
121
913
654
766
342
625
490
2002
423
292
364
315
260
274
250
256
220
222
187
182
190
217
112
974
915
906
800
828
770
490
395
711
664
Year
700
613
2003
2004
537
459
402
353
492
447
433
399
378
326
303
281
255
241
241
310
284
238
243
230
218
199
226
213
199
192
204
193
137
120
1,040
932
889
640
746
738
2005
620
476
505
457
390
368
285
270
320
302
258
251
217
216
164
1,224
988
958
931
796
768
2006
875
553
528
490
402
359
307
287
326
318
303
262
247
233
197
1,379
1,114
1,013
953
( USD )
916
898
2007
847
650
601
556
458
400
377
372
363
363
341
294
286
255
245
GDP per capita of HIPICs and Debt-Relief Countries
454
2000
421
247
312
242
220
268
304
240
234
240
212
162
140
150
124
Notes:
GDP Per Capita of Indonesia 2008 = USD2.246 (source: IMF)


For HIPCs, debt-to-GDP ratio has declined quite significantly from 102% in 1999 to 31% in 2007
Debt write off made debt outstanding to drop off at the level of 90% in average (as on 2007)
Conclusion
 Fiscal deficit requires financing. Debt has long been recognized as the
best policy tool to support liquidity and to refinance matured debt
 Debt outstanding accounts growth in nominal term but debt as a share of
GDP keeps to record a significant decrease and, as our fiscal rule
mandates, it is still in a healthy level
 Ultimate goal of debt management is to acquire fund with low cost &
risk, with long term maturity, untied to any political agenda
 Continuing to achieve sound fiscal policy and debt management:
Looking at another developing and even advanced countries’ performance,
debt indicator of Indonesia stays better and is continuing to be so
 Rules and regulations are already installed in place to guarantee
accountability and transparency of debt management
 Central Government’s Financial Report 2009 has been judged as unqualified
(Wajar Tanpa Pengecualian/WTP) by the State Audit Board (BPK)


Improvement ratings, especially since 2005, and last (12 March 2010)
increased by S & P rated BB- to BB even though in the midst of a global crisis
that is still felt in some countries. While Indonesia has been included in the
investment grade category by JCRA
© 2010
Directorate Evaluation, Accounting and Settlement
Directorate General of Debt Management
Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Jl. Lapangan Banteng Timur 2-4 Jakarta
Tlp: 021-3449230 psw. 5647, 021-3864778
Fax: 021-3843712
www.dmo.or.id
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