EKONOMI INDONESIA
DI BAWAH JOKOWI
Fauzi Ichsan
Managing Director & Senior Economist
Desember 2014
Document Title
0
INDONESIA DALAM KONTEKS GLOBAL:
“TANTANGAN BAGI EKONOMI KEENAM BELAS TERBESAR DI DUNIA”
Document Title
1
ASPEK GLOBAL:
PROSPEK MEMBAIK
• Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia naik, risiko krisis finansial global mengecil
• Melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina tidak cukup untuk menghambat ekonomi dunia
• Normalisasi kebijakan moneter AS – QE berakhir di T4-2014, suku bunga USD naik di T3-2015
• Suku bunga di negara maju naik di 2016, mengikuti kenaikan suku bunga USD
• Revolusi shale gas meningkatkan pasokan energi global dan membatasi kenaikan harga energi
Document Title
2
IMBAL HASIL SUN GLOBAL:
MENGINDIKASI MENGECILNYA RISIKO KRISIS FINANSIAL
Berakhirnya kebijakan Quantitative Easing oleh bank
sentral AS menaikan imbal hasil US treasury bond
Berakhirnya krisis finansial Euro menurunkan imbal hasil
SUN negara Euro yang bermasalah
Dampak kebijakan
quantitative easing
Sumber: Bloomberg
Document Title
3
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DUNIA:
MEMBAIK NAMUN DAMPAKNYA TIDAK BESAR BAGI INDONESIA
Tanpa kenaikkan harga komoditas, ekspor Indonesia akan tetap lemah
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014P
2015P
2016P
US
-2.6
3.0
1.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.8
2.4
Euro zone
-4.1
1.7
1.6
-0.7
-0.4
0.8
1.3
2.1
Japan
-5.2
3.9
-0.7
1.5
1.5
0.5
1.8
1.6
China
9.2
10.3
9.3
7.7
7.7
7.3
7.1
7.0
India
8.0
8.5
6.2
4.5
4.7
5.5
6.3
7.0
South Korea
0.3
6.2
3.6
2.3
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.7
Indonesia
4.6
6.2
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.1
5.2
5.5
Thailand
-2.3
7.8
0.1
6.4
2.9
1.1
6.0
6.5
Malaysia
-1.7
7.2
5.1
5.6
4.7
5.9
5.5
5.3
Singapore
-0.8
14.5
5.3
1.3
3.9
2.9
3.5
4.0
World
-0.7
5.3
3.3
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.6
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
4
PREDIKSI SUKU BUNGA GLOBAL:
SUKU BUNGA USD DIPERKIRAKAN NAIK SEDIKIT
Walau kebijakan QE berakhir di AS, suku bunga global diperkirakan tetap rendah sampai 2016
10/12/2014
T4
T1-2015
T2
T3
T4
USD (FFTR)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
USD (10yr UST yield)
2.29
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
EUR (Refi)
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
JPY (O/N)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
GBP (Base rate)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
AUD (RBA call)
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.75
3.25
CNY(Policy rate)
2.75
2.75
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
IDR (BI rate)
7.75
7.75
7.75
7.75
8.25
8.25
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
5
SUKU BUNGA GLOBAL:
SUKU BUNGA DI NEGARA MAJU MASIH RENDAH
Suku bunga di negara maju, termasuk AS, Euro area dan
Inggris, tetap rendah di 2014
Suku bunga di negara berkembang, terutama yang
memiliki defisit neraca transaksi berjalan, tetap tinggi
Sumber: Bloomberg
Document Title
6
PREDIKSI KURS GLOBAL:
PENGUATAN USD DI PASAR VALAS GLOBAL SAMPAI 2016 KECUALI DI ASIA
Mengecilnya defisit neraca transaksi berjalan AS dan prospek kenaikan suku bunga USD mendukung kurs USD
9/12/2014
T4
T1-2015
T2
T3
T4
EUR/USD
1.24
1.24
1.22
1.20
1.22
1.24
USD/JPY
120
120
124
126
122
124
AUD/USD
0.83
0.88
0.81
0.78
0.76
0.78
GBP/USD
1.57
1.57
1.53
1.50
1.54
1.57
USD/CNY
6.19
6.09
6.12
6.11
6.08
5.98
USD/KRW
1,108
1,100
1,140
1,150
1,135
1,110
12,331
12,200
12,300
12,500
12,200
11,900
1.32
1.31
1.32
1.33
1.31
1.29
USD/IDR
USD/SGD
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
7
PREDIKSI HARGA KOMODITAS GLOBAL:
TERPENGARUH REVOLUSI SHALE GAS DI AS
Meningkatnya produksi energi dan turunnya impor energi di AS membatasi kenaikan harga energi global
T1-2015
T2
T3
T4
T1-2016
T2
Crude oil (NYMEX WTI) –
USD/bl
64
78
89
93
93
93
Crude oil (Brent) – USD/bl
68
83
90
98
98
101
Coal (Newcastle) – USD/tonne
64
62
64
65
68
68
1,160
1,230
1,270
1,320
1,325
1,300
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
14.0
14.0
2,400
2,300
2,450
2,500
2,900
2,900
Gold (spot) – USD/oz
Rice– USD/cwt
CPO – MYR/tonne
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
8
INDONESIA DALAM KONTEKS LOKAL:
“DI PERSIMPANGAN”
Document Title
9
INDONESIA DI TAHUN 2014:
EKUILIBRIUM BARU
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014P
2015P
1) Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
6.2
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.1
5.2
2) Inflasi (akhir-tahun, %)
7.0
3.8
4.3
8.4
7.5
4.5
3) Inflasi (rata-rata, %)
5.1
5.4
4.3
7.0
6.4
7.4
4) USD/IDR (akhir-tahun)
8,996
9,069
9,793
12,171
12,200
11,900
5) USD/IDR (rata-rata)
9,078
8,768
9,410
10,761
11,959
12,200
6) BI rate (akhir-tahun, %)
6.50
6.00
5.75
7.50
7.75
8.25
7) Imbal hasil SUN 10 tahun (%)
7.61
6.10
5.20
8.45
8.00
8.50
8) Defisit APBN (% dari GDP)
-0.6
-1.1
-1.9
-2.2
-2.5
-2.0
9) Neraca perdagangan (USD M)
30.6
35.3
8.6
6.2
10.0
13.0
10) Neraca transaksi berjalan (USD M)
5.1
1.7
-24.4
-28.4
-24.9
-20.0
11) Cadangan devisa BI (USD M)
96.4
110.1
112.8
99.4
112.0
125.0
Sumber: Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
10
EKUILIBRIUM BARU PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI:
PERTUMBUHAN 5.0-5.5% “NEW NORMAL” VS. 6.0-6.5% DI MASA LALU
Pertumbuhan PDB per tahun
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
11
KOMPONEN IHSG:
DOMINASI KONSUMSI DOMESTIK
Sumber: Bloomberg
Document Title
12
PASAR SAHAM:
IHSG MENUJU 5,400 AKHIR 2014
Harga
(09/12/2014)
Sejak awal 2014
Target konsensus*
PE rasio (laba 2015)
BEI indeks
5,122
19.8%
N/A
16.3
Adaro
1,090
0.0%
1,232
11.1
Adhi Karya
2,965
96.4%
3,130
14.7
Adira Finance
7,400
-8.6%
N/A
N/A
Astra International
7,100
4.4%
7,581
13.0
Bank BCA
13,250
38.0%
13,115
17.2
Bank Mandiri
10,525
34.1%
11,777
11.0
Bank Rakyat Ind.
11,225
54.8%
12,484
10.5
Bumi Resources
72
-76.0%
135
2.9
2,220
-2.4%
2,485
15.6
25,000
25.0%
25,969
16.3
Indofood
6,650
0.8%
7,942
12.3
London Sumatra
1,955
1.3%
2,181
12.3
United Tractors
17,600
92.6%
20,852
11.0
3,115
97.2%
3,146
23.4
Holcim
Indocement
Wijaya Karya
Sumber: Bloomberg, * Target harga rata-rata para analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg
Document Title
13
BEBAN HUTANG RUMAH TANGGA:
MASIH SANGAT RENDAH
Rasio hutang rumah tangga terhadap PDB (18%) di
Indonesia (di mana konsumsi rumah tangga menggerakan
55% dari PDB) salah satu yang terendah di Asia
Rasio hutang rumah tangga terhadap pendapatan (26%) di
Indonesia adalah salah satu yang terendah di Asia, karena
rendahnya penetrasi sektor perbankan
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
14
HUTANG PEMERINTAH DAN KORPORASI:
MASIH RELATIF AMAN
Rasio hutang pemerintah terhadap PDB (25%) di Indonesia
salah satu yang terendah di Asia, mendukung peringkat
investment grade oleh Moody’s dan Fitch
Rasio hutang korporasi terhadap PDB (19%) di Indonesia
juga salah satu yang terendah di Asia, karena kuatnya
profitabilitas dan arus kas internal perusahaan
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
15
PERBANDINGAN INDIKATOR RISIKO NEGARA:
“INDONESIA LEBIH BAIK DARI BANYAK NEGARA INVESTMENT-GRADE LAINNYA”
South Africa
Thailand
Russia
Brazil
India
Indonesia
Peringkat S&
(10 Desember 2014)
BBB-
BBB+
BBB-
BBB
BBB-u
BB+
Sovereign CDS
(10 Desember 2014)
188.3
96.3
406.0
178.1
159.3
144.5
Pertumbuhan PDB
(Harga konstan, %, 2013)
1.9
2.9
1.5
2.3
4.7
5.8
Inflasi
(rata-rata, %, 2013)
5.8
2.2
6.8
5.8
6.0
7.0
Hutang pemerintah
(% dari PDB, 2013)
38.8
41.7
8.4
65.0
62.4
25.2
Defisit fiskal
(% dari PDB, 2013)
-4.2
-2.6
-0.5
-3.3
-5.0
-2.2
Neraca transaksi berjalan
(% dari PDB, 2013)
-6.3
-0.4
2.1
-3.1
-2.4
-3.7
Hutang luar negeri jangka pendek *
(% dari cadangan devisa, 2013)
53.2
37.5
19.2
9.4
37.9
57.8
Cadangan devisa
(USD milyar, 2013)
47.3
159.0
509.6
375.8
268.6
99.4
* Akhir T2-2013
Sumber: Bloomberg
Document Title
16
POLITIK DI TAHUN 2015:
TANPA KEKUATAN DI DPR OPSI JOKOWI TERBATAS
Partai politik
% jumlah
pemilih
% kursi DPR
• Koalisi partai pendukung Jokowi hanya menguasai
44% kursi DPR (periode 2014-19)
PDIP (Jokowi)
18.95
19.46
Golkar (Prabowo)
14.75
16.25
• Koalisi partai pendukung Prabowo menguasi 45%,
sementara partai Demokrat “netral” dan
menguasai 11%
Gerindra (Prabowo)
11.81
13.04
• Memadzulan Jokowi secara hukum sulit dilakukan
Demokrat (Netral)
10.19
10.89
PKB (Jokowi)
9.04
8.75
PAN (Prabowo)
7.59
8.39
PKS (Prabowo)
6.79
7.14
Nasdem (Jokowi)
6.72
6.96
PPP (Prabowo)
6.53
6.25
Hanura (Jokowi)
5.26
2.86
100.00
100.00
Total
• Rencana perampingan kabinet yang profesional
terancam ditunda karena kompromi politik
• Kabinet pertama Jokowi rawan kena “reshuffle”
sebelum akhir masa jabatan
Sumber: Komisi Pemilihan Umum, Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
17
TANTANGAN JOKOWI:
FAKTOR GLOBAL DAN LOKAL
• Turunnya harga komoditas global dengan adanya revolusi shale gas di AS
• Re-alokasi dana lebih dari Rp 100tn dari subsidi BBM ke proyek infrastruktur
• Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan yang bersifat struktural, diperburuk oleh pelarangan ekspor mineral
• Karena defisit neraca transaksi berjalan besar, ekuilibrium baru pertumbuhan PDB di bawah 6%
• Dengan berakhirnya kebijakan QE di AS, pembiayaan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan dan APBN
semakin sulit
• Pemerintah baru tanpa dukungan mayoritas di DPR yang bisa kehilangan momentum
Document Title
18
PERKIRAAN KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH BARU:
2015 DAN 2016 TAHUN KONSOLIDASI
• BI dan pemerintah harus menurunkan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan sebelum bank sentral AS
menaikkan Fed Funds rate pada semester 2, 2015
• BI diperkirakan akan merespon dengan menaikan BI rate ke 8.25% pada semester 2-2015
• Setelah menaikkan harga BBM 31%, langkah berikutnya adalah mengunci subsidi BBM per liter
• Konsolidasi ijin usaha di bawah satu atap BPKM
• Revisi kebijakan pelarangan ekspor mineral tanpa merubah UU
• Pemerintah kemungkinan akan menurunkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk 2015 dan 2016
Document Title
19
TATA DUNIA BARU:
PERAN INDONESIA AKAN SEMAKIN BESAR
1990
USD trn
2000
USD trn
2010
USD trn
2020
USD trn
2030
USD trn
1
AS
5.9
AS
10.3
AS
15.0
US
23.5
Cina
53.8
2
Jepang
3.1
Jepang
4.7
Cina
5.9
China
21.9
US
38.5
3
Jerman
1.7
Jerman
1.9
Jepang
5.5
Jepang
6.1
India
15.0
4
Perancis
1.2
Inggris
1.5
Jerman
3.3
Jerman
5.1
Jepang
9.3
5
Italia
1.1
Perancis
1.3
Perancis
2.5
India
4.5
Jerman
7.4
6
Inggris
1.0
Cina
1.2
Inggris
2.3
Brazil
3.9
Brazil
6.3
7
Kanada
0.6
Italia
1.1
Brasil
2.1
Perancis
3.9
Inggris
5.8
8
Spanyol
0.5
Kanada
0.7
Italia
2.0
Inggris
3.7
Perancis
5.7
9
Brasil
0.5
Brasil
0.6
Kanada
1.6
Italia
2.7
Indonesia
4.7
10
Cina
0.4
Meksiko
0.6
Rusia
1.5
Rusia
2.6
Rusia
4.6
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Document Title
20
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QUALIFY FOR AN EXEMPTION UNDER THE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE SECURITIES LAWS NOR DO WE OFFER OR SELL SECURITIES TO U.S. PERSONS UNLESS (i)
WE, OUR AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL ARE PROPERLY REGISTERED OR LICENSED TO CONDUCT BUSINESS; OR (ii) WE, OUR
AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL QUALIFY FOR EXEMPTIONS UNDER APPLICABLE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE LAWS.
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