2012 Elections: Nation,
State and County
Dan Nataf, Ph.D.
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Goals
• Presidential Election – overview of 2012 results
− Raw vote count, Electoral College
− Change from 2008
− Pollster tracking polls and predictions
− Exit polls – voter coalitions for Obama and Romney
− Lessons – Democratic Lean…
• Maryland
− Presidential vote
− Referenda results
− Lessons: Blue Maryland
• Anne Arundel County
− Presidential vote
− Referenda vote
− Lessons: Purple County
National Results
Popular Vote Electoral College
Obama
51
332
Romney
47
206
National Results
2008
2012
2012-2008
53
51
-2
69,456,897
65,899,625
-3,557-272
Electoral College
365
332
-33
McCain/Romney%
46
47
+1
59,934,814
60,928,981
+994,167
173
206
+33
Obama %
Popular vote
Popular vote
Electoral College
Obama raw vote margins:
2008: 9,522,083
2012: 4,970,644
(2012 vs. 2008: down 4,551,439)
Popular Vote: 1952-2012
70
61
60
55
61
58
57
50
50
44
40
50
48
43
42
30
49
46
41
38
53
51
43
41
38
48
48
46
51
47
41
38
Roller Coaster
53
51
Democratic lean
Republican
ascendancy
20
10
0
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
Dem
1984
Rep
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012
100
90
80
98
97
91
90
83
86
79
70
69
60
70
62
61
58
55
50
50
45
42
40
53
47
39
38
31
30
20
68
32
30
21
17
14
10
10
9
3
0
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
2
1976
1980
DemEC%
1984
1988
RepEC%
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
How did the pollsters do?
Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4
51
Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters
50
50 50
49
49 49
48
47 47 47 47
46
46 46 46 46
44
43
42
41
49
48
47
45
50
50
49 49 49
48 48
48 48
49
49
48
47 47
46 46
45 45
45
44 44 44 44
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
47
46
46 46
45
47 47 47
46
Oct 11
Oct 3
46
Oct 22
45 45 45
44 44
47 47
Oct 16
Obama
Romney
How did the pollsters do:
Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll
(Likely voters)
Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1
Colorado
Votamatic Drew Linzer
votamatic.org/ (+8)
Nate Silver
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/a
uthor/nate-silver/ (+3)
RCP
www.realclearpolitics.com/
Average
Florida
Actual results
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Iowa
Actual results
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Nevada
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
New Hampshire
Obama
Romney
51
49
50.1
48.6
49.9
51
48.9
47.7
48.5
47
50
49.4
47.9
49.1
50
50
50.1
49.1
49.7
49
51.7
51
48.2
50.3
52
48.3
48
46.2
47.5
46
52
51.3
50
51.1
52
48
47.8
47.3
47.7
46
Obama
Romney
49
48.4
46
51
51
49.8
47.8
50.6
48
51
51.6
50.7
48.9
48.4
48.1
46.6
50.4
47.7
50
48
51
50.1
47.9
49
49.2
47.4
49.7
Actual results 51
48.5
48
52.4
51.6
50
47.6
47.6
45
51.3
Actual results 53
46.7
46
North Carolina
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Ohio
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Virginia
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Wisconsin
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Total
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
51.7
51
48.8
50.5
52
48.3
48.2
47.5
48
46
Electoral College
Votamatic (and actual results)
Silver
RCP
Average
None
50.5
47.4
None
48.6
47.3
49
48
50
48
332
300
290
206
237
248
307
230
Exit Poll: Demographics
Trait
Obama
Romney
(47% )
45
52
Women (53%)
55
18-29 (19%)
Trait
Obama
Romney
Liberal (25%)
86
14
44
Moderate (41%)
56
41
60
37
Conservative (35% )
17
82
30-44 (27%)
52
45
Republican (32%)
7
93
45-64 (38%)
47
51
Independent (29%)
45
50
65+
44
56
Democrat (38% )
92
8
62
36
<$100k (72%)
54
44
Suburban (47%)
48
50
>$100
44
54
Rural (21%)
39
59
Protestant (53%)
42
57
White (72%)
39
59
Catholic
(25%)
50
48
Black (13%)
93
7
None
(12%)
70
26
Latino (10%)
71
27
Men
Urban
(16%)
(32%)
(28%)
Exit Poll: Issues
Issue
Obama
Issue
Obama
Romney
Don’t repeal HC
Romney reform (44%)
31
Repeal (49%)
87
13
15
83
Increase taxes for
all (13%)
52
44
Abortion legal (59%)
67
Abortion illegal (36%)
22
77
Health Care (18%)
75
24
Housing market
(8%)
63
32
Increase taxes for
rich (47%)
70
29
Foreign Policy (5%)
56
33
23
75
Unemployment
(38%)
54
44
No tax increase
(35%)
61
37
Taxes (14%)
32
66
Deficit (15%)
32
66
Most illegal
immigrants
should be offered
legal status (65%)
Economy (59%)
47
51
Deport (28%)
24
73
Rising Prices (37%)
49
49
More in touch Obama/Romney
(53%)/(43%)
91
98
National Lessons
• Presidential elections: Trending Democratic, regional divide,
maximize base turnout
• Democratic issues: pro-choice, health reform, foreign
policy, tax rich, immigration reform
• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans,
Latinos, seculars, single, under 30
• Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women,
• Uncertain: Suburbanites, Catholics (economy/inflation)
• Republican issues: pro-life, no tax increases, less
spending/deficit, no immigration reform
• Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., Protestants, married,
males, 45-64, 65+
• Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural, white, southern
Maryland: Presidential Results –
Solidly Democratic
2008 (%)
2012 (%)
2012-2008
Obama
61.9
62
+.1
McCain/Romney
36.5
35.9
-.6
Actual votes
Obama
McCain/Ro
mney
2008
2012
2012-2008
1,629,467
1,677,844
+48347
959,862
971,869
+12007
Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting
Redistricting by County, % Supporting
Dream Act by County, % Supporting
Casino Approval by County
Support by County
0.0 to 0.31
0.32 to 0.40
0.41 to 0.47
0.48 to 0.53
0.54 to 0.6
0.61 to 0.70
0.71 to 1.0
Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting
Lessons for State Elections
• Democratic hegemony remains unchanging
• Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG,
Charles, Baltimore City
• Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County
• Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent,
Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester
Anne
Arundel
County –
Council
Districts
Anne
Arundel
County
State
Legislative
Districts
Anne Arundel County:
Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012
64
65
62
59
60
57
57
56
58
58
56
55
53
52
50
51
50
49
48
52
49
47
47
45
45
56
44
43
41
41
41
42
44
42
40
40
37
35
35
30
1
2
Ob '08
3
4
MC '08
5
Ob '12
6
7
Rom '12
Early
AA County Election Lessons
• County has purple qualities – support some
Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less
so others (Dream Act, Casinos)
• Maximum turnout election results in very closely
divided electorate
• Local Democratic candidates – can they run as
liberal as state/national party/candidates?
• Local Republican candidates – how conservative
can they be?
• Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6;
Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2
AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
Same Sex Marriage by Demographics
80
Lib, 65
60
31-40, 51
NoRel, 47
Jewish, 40
Spiritual, 35
NonPract, 31
>$250k, 26
40
Dem, 30
Mod, 20 Unaffil, 20
20
0
0
PGW, 18
$75-100, 14
BA, 12
$100-150, 11
$150-250, 8 White, 6
$30-50,
-3
15
20
Some Coll, -7
2 yr Degree, -10
<$30K, -12
$50-75, -15
5
10
-20
HS Dip, -25
-40
Rep, -38
Cons, -48
-60
25
Female, 2218-30, 21
Married, 4
Sep/Div, 0
Single, -3 35
30
Prot, -7
Widow, -8
WhiteEvang, -15
Male, -17
Cath, -21
ChristianOther, -22
Black, -24
41-50, -3
-5
61-70, -6
40
51-60,
71+, -24
45
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
AAC: Demographic Lessons
• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except
SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30
• Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women,
$150-250k
• Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 6170
• Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic,
married, males, 41-60, 71+
• Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree,
Other Christians, White Evangelicals