2012 Elections In
Maryland
Dan Nataf, Ph.D.
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
www2.aacc.edu/csli
National Results
Popular Vote Electoral College
Obama
50
332
Romney
48
206
National Results
Obama %
Popular vote
2008
2012
2012-2008
53
50
-3
69,456,897 61,713,086
-7,743,811
Electoral College
365
332
-33
McCain/Romney%
46
48
+2
Popular vote
Electoral College
59,934,814 58,510,150
173
206
-1,424,664
+33
How did the pollsters do?
Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4
51
Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters
50
50 50
49
49 49
48
47 47 47 47
46
46 46 46 46
44
43
42
41
49
48
47
45
50
50
49 49 49
48 48
48 48
49
49
48
47 47
46 46
45 45
45
44 44 44 44
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
47
46
46 46
45
47 47 47
46
Oct 11
Oct 3
46
Oct 22
45 45 45
44 44
47 47
Oct 16
Obama
Romney
Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking
Poll (Likely voters)
Map of Battleground States
NH
Wis
Nev
.
Iowa
Col
o.
Ohio
Va
.NC
Fl.
Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1
Colorado
Votamatic Drew Linzer
votamatic.org/
Nate Silver
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/a
uthor/nate-silver/
RCP
www.realclearpolitics.com/
Florida
Average
Actual results
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Iowa
Actual results
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Nevada
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
New Hampshire
Obama
Romney
51
49
50.1
48.6
49.9
51
48.9
47.7
48.5
47
50
49.4
47.9
49.1
50
50
50.1
49.1
49.7
49
51.7
51
48.2
50.3
52
48.3
48
46.2
47.5
46
52
51.3
50
51.1
52
48
47.8
47.3
47.7
46
Obama
Romney
49
48.4
46
51
51
49.8
47.8
50.6
48
51
51.6
50.7
48.9
48.4
48.1
46.6
50.4
47.7
50
48
51
50.1
47.9
49
49.2
47.4
49.7
Actual results 51
48.5
48
52.4
51.6
50
47.6
47.6
45
51.3
Actual results 53
46.7
46
North Carolina
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Ohio
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
Virginia
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Wisconsin
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Total
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Average
Actual results
51.7
51
48.8
50.5
52
48.3
48.2
47.5
48
46
Electoral College
Votamatic (and actual results)
Silver
RCP
Average
none
50.5
47.4
None
48.6
47.3
49
48
50
48
332
300
290
206
237
248
307
230
Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)
100
80
80
60
24
10
0
0
1952
-11
1956
-15
1960
0
1964
1968
5
2
1972
1976
1980
-10
-22
-23
1984
1988
-7
1992
-17
-40
-60
-58
-66
-80
-72
-82
-100
36
23
16
20
-20
40
38
40
-94
Dem EC Margin
-96
Dem PV Margin
8
7
0
1996
2000
-4
2004
-3
-6
2008
3
2012
Popular Vote: 1952-2012
70
61
60
61
58
57
55
50 50
50
44
50
40
38
51
49
48
43 43
42
53
51
46
41
43
41
38
48 48
48
2000
2004
53
51
46
48
41
38
30
20
10
0
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
Dem
Rep
1988
1992
1996
2008
2012
Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012
100
98
97
91
90
90
86
83
79
80
70
69
70
62
61
58
60
68
55
50 50
50
45
42
53
47
39
40
38
31
30
1992
1996
30
32
21
20
17
14
10
10
9
3
2
0
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
DemEC%
1984
RepEC%
1988
2000
2004
2008
2012
Exit Poll: Demographics
Trait
Obama
Romney
(47% )
45
52
Women (53%)
55
18-29 (19%)
Trait
Obama
Romney
Liberal (25%)
86
14
44
Moderate (41%)
56
41
60
37
Conservative (35% )
17
82
30-44 (27%)
52
45
Republican (32%)
7
93
45-64 (38%)
47
51
Independent (29%)
45
50
65+
44
56
Democrat (38% )
92
8
62
36
<$100k (72%)
54
44
Suburban (47%)
48
50
>$100
44
54
Rural (21%)
39
59
Protestant (53%)
42
57
White (72%)
39
59
Catholic
(25%)
50
48
Black (13%)
93
7
None
(12%)
70
26
Latino (10%)
71
27
Men
Urban
(16%)
(32%)
(28%)
http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/
Exit Poll: Issues
Trait
Obama
Trait
Obama
Romney
87
13
15
83
Increase taxes for
all (13%)
52
44
Don’t repeal HC
Romney reform (44%)
31
Repeal (49%)
Abortion legal (59 )
67
Abortion illegal (36 )
22
77
Health Care (18%)
75
24
Housing market
(8%)
63
32
Increase taxes for
rich (47%)
70
29
Foreign Policy (5%)
56
33
23
75
Unemployment
(38%)
54
44
No tax increase
(35%)
61
37
Taxes (14%)
32
66
Deficit (15%)
32
66
Most illegal
immigrants
should be offered
legal status (65%)
Economy (59%)
47
51
Deport (28%)
24
73
Rising Prices (37%)
49
49
More in touch Obama/Romney
(53%)/(43%)
91
98
National Demographic Lessons
• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, AfricanAmericans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30
• Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women,
• Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics
• Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white,
Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+
• Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural
Senate:
Dems: 55 (with 2 independents)
Reps: 45
Dem Wins
Rep Wins
23
8
7 open
3 open
3 (or4)
party
change
1 party
change
+ 2 indep.
Maine/Ver
mont
Margin (%)
0-5
6-10
11-15
15+
Dem
4
7
2
14
Rep
2
0
0
6
National Results: Election findings
• Presidential races lean Democratic but without
clear hegemony
• Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on
local candidates
• House – resists Democratic trend due to
Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state
legislative election results)
• Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic
majority” underlies trend
• Elections close enough – perfect ground game
needed to win
Maryland: Presidential Results
In percent
2008
2012
2012-2008
Obama
61.9
61.3
-.6
McCain/Ro
mney
36.5
36.6
+.1
2008
2012
2012-2008
1,629,467
1,547,359
-82108
959,862
923,684
-36178
In votes
Obama
McCain/Ro
mney
Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting
Presidential Vote by County, 2012
County
Obama
Allegany County
32
Anne Arundel County
48
Baltimore City
87
Baltimore County
57
Calvert County
45
Caroline County
37
Carroll County
32
Cecil County
39
Charles County
65
Dorchester County
46
Frederick County
47
Garrett County
23
Harford County
39
Howard County
59
Kent County
49
Montgomery County
71
Prince George's County
90
Queen Anne's County
34
St. Mary's County
41
Somerset County
48
Talbot County
43
Washington County
40
Wicomico County
46
Worcester County
40
Romney
65
49
11
41
53
61
65
59
34
53
51
75
58
38
49
27
9
64
57
51
56
58
52
58
Dream Act by County, % Supporting
Redistricting by County, % Supporting
Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting
All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)
Percentages
Majorities in
Garrett County
Carroll County
Allegany County
Caroline County
Queen Anne's County
Washington County
Harford County
Cecil County
Talbot County
Dorchester County
Kent County
Anne Arundel County
Worcester County
Calvert County
Frederick County
St. Mary's County
Somerset County
Wicomico County
Baltimore County
Howard County
Charles County
Montgomery County
Baltimore City
Prince George's County
Overall
Dream
(Q4)
8
36
37
39
40
40
39
41
43
47
47
49
49
47
46
49
47
52
51
52
61
60
72
70
75
58/42
Redistricting
(Q5)
SSM (Q6)
21
6
46
27
46
43
51
34
59
37
54
44
50
38
58
44
65
44
56
48
62
38
56
49
54
52
67
42
62
45
56
51
64
44
67
34
71
59
65
73
65
73
78
64/36
39
51
59
45
65
57
49
52/48
Casinos
(Q7)
12
42
45
59
46
47
57
47
43
42
50
42
46
54
57
52
58
54
Obama
6
23
32
32
37
34
40
39
39
43
46
49
48
40
45
47
41
48
Overall
11
35
41
43
43
44
45
46
47
47
49
49
50
50
51
51
51
51
54
49
47
61
55
53
60
52/48
46
57
59
65
71
87
90
63
52
54
58
61
66
68
70
51
Standard
Deviation
10
6
12
9
7
8
7
10
6
9
5
3
11
8
3
10
12
12
4
6
10
7
14
16
Lessons for State Elections
• Democratic hegemony remains unchanging
• Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG,
Charles, Baltimore City
• Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County
• Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent,
Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester
Anne Arundel County:
Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012
District
Obama
08
McCain
08
Obama
12
Romney
12
Obama
12-08
McCainRomney
1
51
47.7
51.6
45.4
+.6
-2.3
2
49.9
49.4
49.4
47.1
-.5
-2.3
3
36.5
63.5
35
62
-1.5
-1.5
4
58.5
40.9
56.7
40.6
-1.8
-.3
5
43.3
55.9
40.7
56.6
-2.6
+.7
6
57.8
41.6
53.3
44.3
-4.5
+2.7
7
44
55.5
41.7
55.9
-2.3
+.4
Absentee/Early
/ Provisional
52
47.3
58.4
40.3
+6.4
-7
48.2
50
48.3
49.2
+.1
-.8
Total
Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4
Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1
Anne Arundel County:
Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012
65
64
62
60
59
57
55
52
51
50
48
45
58
57
56
58
56
53
52
50
49
49
47
47
45
43
41
40
41
44
44
42
42
40
37
35
35
30
1
2
Ob '08
3
4
MC '08
5
Ob '12
6
7
Rom '12
Early
AA County: Early Vote - 2012
Obama
Early
Vote
Center
1
2
3
4
5
Overall
Election
Day
Romney
Early/Provsional/
Absentee
51.6
70.9
49.4
60.9
35
45.2
56.7
66.5
40.7
45.7
48.3
27.7
37.8
53.3
32
53.1
49.2
Obama
Obama Early
Early-Election
– Romney
Day
Early
19.3
11.5
10.2
9.8
5
43.2
23.1
-8.1
34.5
-7.4
-.9
AA County Lessons
• County has purple qualities – support some
Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less
so others (Dream, Casinos)
• Maximum turnout election still results in
Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket
• Local Democratic candidates still need to be
cautious about distancing themselves from
national and statewide candidates
• Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6;
Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2
AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics
100
Black, 90
Lib, 84
80
Dem, 64
60
Jewish, 60
$30-50, 50
40
<$30K, 36
20
0
0
-20
NoRel, 29
21
18-30, 22
NonPract, 22 Single,
Sep/Div, 19
Mod, 13
Spiritual, 13 Widow, 11
31-40, 13
Female, 6
Some Coll, 2 BA, 2 PGW, 1 $150-250, 8
5
15
20
30
35 41-50, -7
4061-70, -4 45
$100-150,
-8 25
Unaffil,10-9
>$250k, -8 White, -15
HS Dip, -13
Prot, -13 Male, -12
51-60, -10
$50-75, -20
Cath, -21 Married, -13
71+, -21
WhiteEvang, -29
$75-100, -21
-40
2 yr Degree, -48
-60
-80
-100
Cons, -67
Rep, -76
ChristianOther, -55
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
60
Lib, 43
40
NoRel, 36
Jewish, 30
20
Dem, 17
Student, 17
Not LabMkt, 11
PGW, 11
Sep/Div, 5
0
0
-20
-40
Spiritual, 12
Mod,5 -4
10 BA, -6
15
20
25
$100-150, -9
$30-50, -14
$150-250, -15 >$250k, -15
Unaffil, -16
$50-75, -16
$75-100, -18
Some Coll, -27
2 yr Degree, -31
<$30K, -34
HS Dip, -39
30
Black, -2
35
40Widow, -245
Female, -7
Married, -14
White, -19
Single, -21 Male, -21
NonPract, -26 Prot, -23
Cath, -26
ChristianOther, -35
Unemp, -47
-60
-80
Rep, -53
Cons, -56
50
WhiteEvang, -52
Same Sex Marriage by Demographics
80
Lib, 65
60
31-40, 51
NoRel, 47
Jewish, 40
Spiritual, 35
NonPract, 31
>$250k, 26
40
Dem, 30
Mod, 20 Unaffil, 20
20
0
0
PGW, 18
$75-100, 14
BA, 12
$100-150, 11
$150-250, 8 White, 6
$30-50,
-3
15
20
Some Coll, -7
2 yr Degree, -10
<$30K, -12
$50-75, -15
5
10
-20
HS Dip, -25
-40
Rep, -38
Cons, -48
-60
25
Female, 2218-30, 21
Married, 4
Sep/Div, 0
Single, -3 35
30
Prot, -7
Widow, -8
WhiteEvang, -15
Male, -17
Cath, -21
ChristianOther, -22
Black, -24
41-50, -3
-5
61-70, -6
40
51-60,
71+, -24
45
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
60
Lib, 43
40
NoRel, 36
Jewish, 30
20
Dem, 17
Student, 17
Not LabMkt, 11
PGW, 11
Spiritual, 12
Sep/Div, 5
0
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Mod,5 -4
10 BA, -6
15
20
25
$100-150, -9
$150-250, -15 >$250k, -15
$30-50, -14
Unaffil, -16
$50-75, -16
$75-100, -18
Some Coll, -27
2 yr Degree, -31
<$30K, -34
HS Dip, -39
Rep, -53
Cons, -56
30
Black, -2
35
Widow, -2
45
50
Female, -7
40
Married, -14
White, -19
Single, -21
Male, -21
NonPract, -26 Prot, -23
Cath, -26
ChristianOther, -35
Unemp, -47
Defense, -48
WhiteEvang, -52
AAC: Demographic Lessons
• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except
SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30
• Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women,
$150-250k
• Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 6170
• Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic,
married, males, 41-60, 71+
• Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree,
Other Christians, White Evangelicals