ULine Presentation (final)

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Uline Presentation
Bill Broydrick
Principle
Broydrick & Associates
444 N Capitol Street NW
DC 20001
Unemployment—The Big Issue



The unemployment rate declined by 0.3
percentage point to 7.8 percent in
September and for the first 8 months of the
year, the rate held within a narrow range of
8.1 and 8.3 percent, according to a U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics report released in
early October
Employment increased in health care and in
transportation and warehousing but changed
little in most other major industries.
The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1
million, decreased by 456,000 in September
2012.
Economic Growth

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods
and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an
annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of
2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second
quarter), according to the "third" estimate released
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent
Fiscal Policy

In January 2009 the US Congress passed
and President Barack Obama signed a bill
providing an additional $787 billion fiscal
stimulus to be used over 10 years - twothirds on additional spending and onethird on tax cuts - to create jobs and to
help the economy recover.
Monetary Policy


The Fed last month announced a program of openended bond purchases that will be continued until
there is substantial improvement in labor market
conditions, barring a sustained and unexpected
spike in inflation.
To start off, the central bank will buy $40 billion in
mortgage-backed securities each month. The Fed
will announce a new target at the end of this
month, and every subsequent month, until the labor
market outlook improves “substantially,” as long as
inflation remains in check.
Monetary Policy (Continued)


The scale of the Fed’s new effort is smaller than the
Fed’s previous asset purchases. The first round,
starting in 2008, averaged more than $100 billion a
month. The second, beginning in 2010, averaged $75
billion a month. The current round will begin at a
pace of $40 billion a month, although the volume
remains subject to adjustment.
This is the first time that the Fed has tied the
duration of an aid program to its economic
objectives. Thus, this policy also represents more of
a concern for unemployment, rather than the Fed’s
traditional concern of inflation (Inflation is now
running below the Fed’s 2 percent annual target).
World Conditions - China


o
China holds an estimated 1.2 trillion of US debt, which
is about 7.3 percent of all U.S. debt
September 1st, 2012 article appearing in The Economist
stated the following:
The Chinese economy has a habit of beating
expectations. For ten years in a row, from 2001 to 2010,
its growth rate exceeded the IMF’s spring forecast, often
by a big margin. But this year it is likely to disappoint. In
recent months, industrial output has slowed sharply;
stocks of unsold goods are piling up; and Shanghai’s
stockmarket is at a three-year low. For the first time
this century, in 2012 China’s growth rate may dip below
8%. With the world ever more dependent on China’s
economy, that is worrying. –
World Conditions - Europe

The European sovereign-debt crisis is the
Energizer Bunny of financial catastrophes.
Unlike the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S.,
which unfolded quickly, this latest
meltdown just keeps going... and going...
and going.
Issues - Deficit
Both President Obama and Governor
Romney have promised to reduce the
deficit, but their plans have been heavily
criticized for not containing specific
details.
 A new estimate puts the deficit for the
just-completed 2012 budget year at $1.1
trillion.

The Fiscal Cliff
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a number of
observers have used the term “fiscal cliff ” to describe
several big fiscal events set to occur in the U.S. at the end
of this year and in early 2013.
Among them:
•$606 billion of expiring tax cuts, new taxes, and
automatic spending cuts are set to take effect at the
end of 2012
•The expiration of fiscal stimulus measures, such as the
payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits.
•Spending cuts scheduled to be triggered automatically
(sequestration) in January 2013 as a result of the
failure of the deficit reduction super committee last
year.
Effects
Fiscal Cliff Effects: Taxes

Taxes would rise about 20%

Lowest income tax would rise from 10%
to 15% while highest income tax would
rise from 35% to 39.6%

Phase out of Earned Income Tax Credit

Child tax credit will fall to $500 per child
from $1000. Refundable portion will also
be reduced

Expiration of the “Payroll tax holiday," a 2
percent Social Security tax cut on the
first $110,000 in wages, will mean a tax
hike of $1,000 per year.

Tax rate on dividends would jump to
ordinary tax rates of 39.6%
Fiscal Cliff Effects: Spending Cuts
Under the so-called “sequestration” plan hatched in the
summer of 2011, cuts totaling $1.2 trillion over 10 years —
The cuts are also evenly split between defense spending —
with spending on wars exempt — and discretionary
domestic spending, which exempts most spending on
entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid
 The sustainable growth rate formula is scheduled to reduce
Medicare physician pay rates by a double-digit amount —
27% according to the most up-to-date projection from the
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

State of the
Election
•Tonight's Debate May decide the election
•If Romney keeps up his momentum he may surpass the President who has
a slight lead
•If Obama wins, he may strengthen his slight lead and improve his chances
•12 Swing States ( Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New
Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia ,and
Wisconsin
Likely Voters
Romney 50%
Obama 46%
N=869
Registered voters
Obama 49%
Romney 47%
N=1,023
The Electoral Vote
/
Source: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver
Presidential Election in the Swing States
Colorado Romney 48%
Obama 47.4%
Florida
Romney 49.3%
Obama 46.8%
Iowa
Romney 45.8%
Obama 48.5%
Nevada
Romney 46.6%
Obama 48.2%
N. H.
Romney 47.3%
Obama 48%
N.C.
Romney 50%
Obama 45.3%
Ohio
Romney 46.1%
Obama 48.3%
Virginia
Romney 47.6%
Obama 48.45
Wisconsin Romney 47.4%
Obama 50%
Key Senate Races
Current Senate
53 D 47 R
Arizona
Flake (R) 43.3%
Connecticut
McMahon (R) 45.3%
Florida
Mack (R) 40.8%
Indiana
Mordock (R) 47%
Carmona (D) 42.5%
Murphy (D) 48.7%
Nelson (D) 47.5%
Donnelly (D) 42%
Massachusetts
Brown (R)
Montana
Rehberg (R) 46%
Tester (D) 44.3%
Nevada
Heller (R) 45%
Berkley (D) 42%
North Dakota
Berg (R)
Heitcamp (D) 47%
Ohio
Mandel (R) 42.2%
Brown (D) 47.2%
Wisconsin
Thompson 46.3%
Baldwin 49.3%
46%
47%
Warren (D) 48.5%
Campaign
Issues
Obama on Taxes


According to a recent IRS study, President
Obama's proposal to let the Bush tax cuts
expire for top earners would hit only a tiny
fraction of all small businesses, but it includes
nearly 1 million companies that employ
people
No household making more than $1 million
each year should pay a smaller share of their
income in taxes than a middle-class family
pays according to President Obama’s website
Romney on Taxes
Romney has said he will slash income tax
rates for everyone -- including the rich -by 20
 Romney has also promised to pay for his
tax reform plan, which is estimated to
reduce revenue by $5 trillion over a
decade. One way he says he would do so
is by reducing tax breaks that
disproportionately benefit the rich.

Obama on Medicare

The proposal would mostly maintain Medicare in
its current form, while implementing structural
payment reforms to encourage the utilization of
high-value rather than high-cost services.
◦ Thus, Obama focuses his Medicare reform proposal
on two main areas:
 (1) altering the current payment system, and
 (2) reducing fraud and waste in the system. The Office of
Management and Budget estimates that the reforms in the
president’s budget for Medicare, Medicaid, and other health
programs will save $364 billion over the next 10 years
Romney on Medicare


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Nothing changes for current seniors or those nearing retirement
Medicare is reformed as a premium support system, meaning that existing spending is
repackaged as a fixed-amount benefit to each senior that he or she can use to purchase
an insurance plan
All insurance plans must offer coverage at least comparable to what Medicare provides
today
If seniors choose more expensive plans, they will have to pay the difference between the
support amount and the premium price; if they choose less expensive plans, they can use
any leftover support to pay other medical expenses like co-pays and deductibles
“Traditional” fee-for-service Medicare will be offered by the government as an insurance
plan, meaning that seniors can purchase that form of coverage if they prefer it; however, if
it costs the government more to provide that service than it costs private plans to offer
their versions, then the premiums charged by the government will have to be higher and
seniors will have to pay the difference to enroll in the traditional Medicare option
Lower income seniors will receive more generous support to ensure that they can afford
coverage; wealthier seniors will receive less support
Competition among plans to provide high quality service while charging low premiums
will hold costs down while also improving the quality of coverage enjoyed by seniors
Obama on Spending
Romney on Spending
Mitt’s goal will be to bring federal spending below
20 percent of GDP by the end of his first term:
 Reduced from 24.3 percent last year; in line with
the historical trend between 18 and 20 percent
 Close to the tax revenue generated by the
economy when healthy
 Requires spending cuts of approximately $500
billion per year in 2016 assuming robust
economic recovery with 4% annual growth, and
reversal of irresponsible Obama-era defense cuts

Dold vs. Schneider
Robert Dold
The Issues:
•Voted to cut House budget legislative
budget by 5%
•Doesn’t believe in raising taxes
•Empower small businesses
•Wants to repeal Affordable Care Act
•Supports converting Medicare into a
voucher program
•Women’s right to choose
•Supports civil unions, but not gay
marriage
Brad Schneider
The Issues:
•Allow the Bush tax cuts for income
above $250,000 to expire, returning to
the Clinton-era rates, to begin
addressing our deficits.
•End tax breaks for companies shipping
jobs overseas
•Supports Affordable Health Care, yet
believes it drives up costs
•Against Medicare becoming a voucher
program
•Anti-privatization of Social Security
•Women’s right to choose
•Supports Gay Marriage
Modest Reform Proposal
A. Independent Reapportionment

Iowa and California Example of success

Iowa lost a seat but have four competitive races
B. Top Two Primary Vote Getters

California and Washington

Stark

Berman vs. Sherman

Waxman examples
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