2012 Elections and Public
Opinion
Dan Nataf
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Center for the Study of Local Issues:
Semi-annual survey
• Conducted each March and October
• Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers
• Contents:
− Benchmark questions on the economy, most important
problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics
− Variable questions on current policy choices and major events
Plan – focus on the election
• What are current trends
−
−
−
−
Most important problem facing residents
Right/wrong direction
Perceptions of the economy
Economic circumstances
• How are these trends related to choices for president and
ballot/referenda items
• Where are we in the election nationally
• Discussion!
Most Important Problem
50
48
48
45
Economy
40
38
36
35
36
35
33
30
30
27
25
24
23
21
20
21
19
19
17
16
15
23
17
17
16
15
14
12
12
10
5
13
11
10
9
8
13
12
11
11
17
Taxes
9
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
0
'07
'08
‘08
'09
‘09
‘10
‘10
‘11
‘11
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Economy
Taxes – too high
Growth
Education
Traffic congestion
Crime / drugs
Unsure/no answer
Other answer
‘12
Spring ‘12
Fall
County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12
70
66
62
60
62
60 61
58
57
58 58
55
54
53
51
50
57
55
51 52 51 50 52
52 52
47
49 50
50
47
43
41
40
36
34
31
30
29
33 32
31
29
32
28 27 28 28 28
27
25 24
25
25
24
23
23
23 22 22
21
21
21
20 19
20
20
20
19
19 18
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
15 15 14
15
14
13
12
27
20
10
26
27 26
0
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
'99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11 '11 '12 '12
Right
Wrong
Unsure
Right/Wrong and Partisanship:
% saying “Right”
Levels
Overall Dem.
Rep.
Dem- Unaff.
Rep.
County
50
58
40
18
56
State
36
55
16
39
35
Nation
36
59
13
46
33
Respondent
78
83
71
12
83
Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction:
County, State and USA
80
USA - Right, 73
State - Right, 61
60
40
County - Right,
16
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
-60
-80
7
9
Respondent Wrong, -22
-20
-40
6
RespondentRight,8 4
County - Wrong,
-32
State - Wrong, 49
USA - Wrong, 56
Economic Conditions
Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12
75
71
71
69
65
55
55
49
46
45
49
48County
51
48
48
45
44
38
35
35
32
31
30
27
25
33
33
State
16
15
11
11
USA
5
-5
11
11
13
9
5
‘06
‘07
‘07
‘08
‘08
‘09
‘09
‘10
‘10
‘11
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall ‘11
‘12
‘12
Spring
Fall
Obama Vote by Perceptions of the
Economy - County, State, USA
80
USA Good, 63
60
State Excellent, 50
USA Excellent, 47
40
County Excellent,
31
State Good, 32
USA Fair, 32
20
0
0
2
County Good, 4
4
County
Fair, -6
6
State8Fair, -6
10
12
14
-20
-40
County Poor, -48
-60
-80
State Poor, -56
USA Poor, -57
Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12
70
60
61
56
50
63
59
58
59
60
59
55
53
55
56
56
42
40
59
11
11
43
41
39
30
24
21
21
Utilities Cost
46
39
36
35
Transport Cost
24
17
15
10
44
32
30
20
59
58
Inflation
63
50
47
40
66
63
Taxes
63
13
12
Housing Cost
21
19
24
21
15
Salary Increase
32
31
30
26
Unemployment
20
21
14
14
11
10
17
16
15
14
11
9
Found job
0
0
S '08
0
F '08
0
S '09
0
F '09
0
S '10
0
F '10
0
S '11
F '11
S '12
Hard to afford cost of taxes*
Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living
Hard to afford cost of transportation
Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas
Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently
Unable to find affordable housing
Facing the possibility of unemployment
Found a new or better job recently
F '12
Other economic indicators
80
75
71
70
70
Loss Stocks, pensions
60
60
60
56
52
51
50
47
46
Delay major purchase
51
47
45
44
44
40
38
38
35
33
30
30
32
29
24
19
21
0
S '08
4
20
32
21
17
Unemployment
14
11
6
32
24
15
0
Health care unavailable
27
20
10
35
34
6
8
7
7
9
8
8
Home foreclosure
4
0
F '08
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
F '11
S '12
F '12
Obama Vote by
Economic Circumstances – F ‘12
10
Unemployment, 8
Received a salary
increase , 6
5
Found job, 2
0
0
2
4
-5
Wages or salaries not
rising, -7
6
8
10
12
14
Affordable housing, 5
Foreclosure, -7
Health care
insurance, -10
Purchase delay, -13
-10
-15
-20
-25
Losses
stocks/retirement, -20
Utilities cost, -19
Transportation cost, 25
Hi Taxes, -28
-30
Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12
Obama Vote and Consumer confidence
60
Fair, 53
Good, 44
40
Somewhat
poor, 28
Excellent, 29
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-20
-40
-60
Very Poor, -41
Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes
20
Relates to people
like me, 15 (58%)
15
10
Other candidate dislike, 8 (29%)
5
Background
appealing, 1 (34%)
0
0
-5
-10
-15
1
Congress -work
with, -5 (87%)
2
3
4
Right ideas economy, -4, (89%)
Defend America, 11, (85%)
5
6
7
8
VP choice, -4
(48%)
Obama Vote by Demographics
100
Black, 90
Lib, 84
80
Dem, 64
60
Jewish, 60
$30-50, 50
40
<$30K, 36
20
Mod, 13
Some Coll, 2BA, 2
0
0
5
Unaffil,10
-9
HS Dip, -13
-20
PGW, 1
NoRel, 29
Single, 21
18-30, 22
NonPract, 22
Sep/Div, 19
Spiritual, 13 Widow, 1131-40, 13
$150-250, 8
Female, 6
61-70,
20
30
35
40
45
41-50,
-7 -10-4
$100-150,
-8 25
51-60,
Male,
-12
>$250k, -8
Prot,
-13
White, -15
$50-75, -20
Cath, -21 Married, -13
71+, -21
WhiteEvang, -29
$75-100, -21
15
-40
2 yr Degree, -48
ChristianOther, -55
-60
-80
-100
Cons, -67
Rep, -76
Presidential Job Approval
CSLI
Gallup
65
61
60
55
54
53
50
50
47
47
47
45
45
43
42
44
42
40
40
37
35
35
32
30
30
28
25
25
24
20
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Most important issue by candidate
Overall
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Economy
49
35
59
68
Trust, honesty, character
7
9
6
8
Foreign affairs, national security, defense
7
5
9
0
Healthcare
6
9
4
4
Women’s issues (abortion, contraception,
equal rights)
5
9
3
4
Dislike of other candidate
5
6
5
0
Other answers
20
28
14
16
Total
99
101
101
100
Ballot Items: Referenda
Same Sex Marriage by Demographics
80
Lib, 65
60
31-40, 51
NoRel, 47
Jewish, 40
Spiritual, 35
NonPract, 31
40
Dem, 30
>$250k, 26
Mod, 20
20
Unaffil, 20
PGW, 18
$75-100, 14
BA, 12
$100-150, 11
$150-250,
8 6
White,
0
0
5
10
HS Dip, -25
Rep, -38
Cons, -48
-60
$30-50,
-3
15
Some Coll, -7
2 yr Degree,
-10 -12
<$30K,
$50-75, -15
-20
-40
Female, 22 18-30, 21
20
25
Married, 4
Sep/Div, 0
Single, -3
30
35
Prot, -7
Widow, -8
WhiteEvang, -15
Male, -17
Cath, -21ChristianOther, -22
Black, -24
41-50, -3
40
51-60, -5
61-70, -6
71+, -24
45
Dream Act by Demographic Variables
60
Lib, 43
40
NoRel, 36
Jewish, 30
20
Dem, 17
Student, 17
Not LabMkt, 11
PGW, 11
Spiritual, 12
Sep/Div, 5
0
0
-20
-40
Mod,5-4
10
BA, -6
15
20
25
$100-150, -9
$150-250, -15>$250k, -15
$30-50,
-14
Unaffil, -16
$50-75,
-16 -18
$75-100,
Some Coll, -27
2 yr Degree, -31
<$30K, -34
HS Dip, -39
-60
-80
Black, -2
35
40
Widow,
-2
45
50
Female, -7
Married, -14
White, -19
Single, -21Male, -21
NonPract, -26 Prot, -23
Cath, -26
ChristianOther, -35
Defense, -48
Rep, -53
Cons, -56
30
Unemp, -47
WhiteEvang, -52
County Vote for President
Overall
Barack Obama
Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
42
77
8
34
Mitt Romney
47
14
84
49
Undecided
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote
7
1
5
2
8
0
8
2
0
0
0
2
No answer
Total
2
99
2
100
1
101
6
101
Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll
Map of Battleground States
NH
Wis
Iowa
Nev.
Colo.
Ohio
Va.
NC
Fl.
Vote Estimates
Obama
Romney
Colorado
Votamatic votamatic.org/
Silver
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/natesilver/
RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/
51
49
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
48.9
47.7
48.5
50
49.4
47.9
49.1
50
50.1
49.1
49.7
51.7
51
48.2
50.3
48.3
48
46.2
47.5
52
51.3
50
51.1
48
47.8
47.3
47.7
Total
48.3
48.2
47.5
48
Electoral College
Iowa
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
51.7
51
48.8
50.5
51
51
49.8
47.8
50.6
51.6
50.7
48.9
48.4
48.1
46.6
50.4
47.7
51
50.1
47.9
49
49.2
47.4
49.7
48.5
52.4
51.6
50
47.6
47.6
45
51.3
46.7
none
50.5
47.4
None
48.6
47.3
49
48
332
300
290
206
237
248
307
230
Virginia
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Wisconsin
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
New Hampshire
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
49
48.4
46
Ohio
Nevada
Votamatic
Silver
RCP
Romney
North Carolina
50.1
48.6
49.9
Florida
Obama
Votamatic
Silver
RCP