California Self-Insurers’ Security Fund Alternative Security Program Overview November 10, 2010 Disclosure Securities or investments are offered through MMC Securities Corp (“MMCSC”), a registered broker-dealer, and member of FINRA/SIPC. Main office: 1166 avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: 212.345.5000. MMCSC, Oliver Wyman, and Marsh Inc. are affiliated entities that are owned and operated by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MMCSC or any of its affiliates may have an independent business relationship with any of the companies described herein. Trademarks and service marks are the property of their respective owners. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. It is not an offer to buy or sell any security or commodity or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. The implementation of or investment in the Alternative Security Program (“ASP”) involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by institutional investors who can bear the economic risks of replacing collateral with a portfolio based approach utilizing synthetic collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps (“credit derivatives”). Certain inherent risks of credit derivatives include, but are not limited to the following: counterparty default risk; correlation may exist between reference entities and counterparties not assumed in risk models; reference entities may exhibit greater correlation than assumed in risk models; estimated recovery rates may greatly differ from actual recovery rates; reference entities may default on their worker’s compensation payments without triggering an ISDA default; and depending on future market conditions, credit protection may not be available at renewal of the ASP or may only be available at excessive cost. ASP sponsors/Investors should not rely on rating agency ratings and should conduct their own analysis or due diligence – identical ratings for different financial products do not guarantee identical risk characteristics since default rates may vastly differ. Certain of the information contained herein concerning credit ratings and default rates is based upon or derived from information provided by third-parties and other industry sources as indicated herein. Results from simulations are for illustrative purposes only and certain assumptions have been made regarding simulations because some models are proprietary to their respective owners and cannot be replicated. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by MMCSC as to the accuracy or completeness of the information set forth herein, and nothing contained in this presentation is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. MMCSC has not independently verified any such information and assumes no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. In addition, this presentation includes certain estimates and assumptions made by MMCSC which may or may not prove accurate. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes only to simplify the presentation and/or calculation and are for illustrative purpose only; this does not reflect the performance of any specific scenario. Simulated performance is hypothetical and may not take into account material economic and market factors. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that estimated returns will be realized or that actual returns or performance results will not materially differ from those estimated herein. Therefore, recipients should not place undue reliance on these results. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. No person has been authorized to make any representation or give any information with respect to the ASP, other than the information contained herein. Prospective institutional investors should not rely on any information other than that contained in this presentation or any supplement to this presentation. Neither MMCSC nor any of its registered representatives, is making any representation regarding the legality of an investment herein by institutional investors. Prospective institutional investors are not to construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax or business advice. Each institutional investor should consult with its own advisors as to legal, tax business, financial, and related aspects of investing in the ASP. This material may not be redistributed without the prior written consent of MMCSC. 1 Contents Self-Insurers’ Security Fund Alternative Security Program (“ASP”) Assessments Financial Strength 2 Self Insurers’ Security Fund Self-Insurers’ Security Fund Overview Purpose: Ensure the timely payment of workers compensation (“WC”) claims to injured workers in the event of default by a member Founded: July 6, 1984 by the State of California Organization: 501(c)(6) non-profit Authority: CA Labor Code Sections 3740-3747 Governance: Board of Trustees 6 elected by member companies 1 ex-officio from CA Department of Industrial Relations (“DIR”) Membership: All CA employers self-insured for WC 588 self insured entities $6.6 billion exposure Mission Statement: "To provide continuity of workers' compensation benefits to injured workers of insolvent, private self-insured companies at the lowest overall long-term cost, equitably distributed to the self-insurance community." Source: California Self-Insurers Security Fund 2010, http://securityfund.org 4 Self-Insurers’ Security Fund Board composition and staff Board of Trustees: Tim East, Chair The Walt Disney Corporation Jill Dulich Marriott International Sean McNally Grimmway Farms Theresa Muir Southern California Edison Janice Murphy Kaiser Permanente William Zachry Safeway Inc. Staff: Regulator: Jeff Pettegrew, Executive Director Ming Kan, Controller James Ware, Chief, Office of Self Insurance Plans (“OSIP”) Cathy Aguilar, Claims Manager Source: California Self-Insurers Security Fund 2010, http://securityfund.org 5 Self-Insurers’ Security Fund Structure Department of Industrial Relations (“DIR”) Legal authority Self Insurers’ Security Fund (“SISF”) Excluded Office of Self Insured Plans (“OSIP”) Credit fees ASP Risk takers Collateral Default protection Self insured employers Self Selfinsured insuredemployers employers Defaulted claim payments Assessments Defaulted estate Audits and regulatory enforcement Annual reporting requirements Defaulted estate Ongoing claim payments Claimants Claimants Claimants Claimants Defaulted self insured employer 6 Alternative Security Program Alternative Security Program Structure Fees/Premium Bank / Surety Security Self-Insured WC Obligation Employer Assessment Fees/Premium Regulator Injured workers Additional Assessment Security Fund Security WC Obligation 8 Alternative Security Program Participation requirements ≥ $5,000,000 ≥ $500,000 ≥ B3/B- Full net worth net income (5 year average) credit rating Partial as for Full, but either - downgraded for “cause,” OR - revoked Excluded new self insured – 3 year wait defaulted failure to post (60+ days) revoked (minimum or no claims) at the Board’s request e.g. one ineligible rating Source: California Code of Regulations, Title 8, Subchapter 2, Article 3 - §15220 9 Alternative Security Program Summary ASP participation expanded in 2010 due to improved credit ratings… 2010/11 $ Assessed ASP Excluded 5,848 599 6,448 Not Assessed1 124 Total Security 6,572 # 350 238 588 2009/10 $ 5,525 741 6,266 %Δ # 338 258 596 110 588 6,377 596 $ % 323 (142) 181 6% -19% 3% 14 12% 195 3% $ in millions 1. The following were not assessed - Employers revoked prior to 2003 - Partial deposits posted to OSIP - the first $220,000 of each Excluded deposit Sources: Office of Self Insurance Plans, CA Self Insurers’ Security Fund 6/28/10 10 Alternative Security Program Industry distribution Industry concentrations remain primarily in Medical Services, Food & Beverage and Utilities… Others <$100 Each 13% 2010/11 Medical Services 20% Aerospace & Defense 2% Automotive 2% 2009/10 Air Transportation 2% Broadcast Media 2% Food & Beverage Retl/Whsl 18% Hotels & Restaurants 2% Consumer Durables Retl/Whsl 4% Business Services 3% Food & Beverage 4% Telephone 6% Consumer Products Retl/Whsl 10% Utilities 12% Source: Moody’s Analytics Industry Groups, Office of Self Insurance Plans, Factiva, Company financial statements 11 Alternative Security Program Rating distribution Ratings improved with the economic outlook, raising the weighted average rating (WARF)… Baa3 WARF 488 619 25% 2010/11 2009/10 % of ASP Notional 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Source: OSIP, Bloomberg, Moody’s, S&P, Moody’s KMV CreditEdge & RiskCalc at 5/15/10 12 Assessments Assessments Total Although the ELP fee increased reflecting higher risk transfer costs, the DLF declined significantly… Excess Liability Protection - ELP Pre-exsiting default shortfall - PEDSF 19.9 30% 12.8 19% 17.1 29% 9.6 16% 14.4 27% 6.2 12% 14.2 30% 23.5 50% 20.1 52% Default Loss Fund DLF 33.8 51% 32.7 55% 32.6 61% 32.6 70% 20.6 65% 11.3 35% Aggregate fees ASP Size % $ millions 2003/04 66.5 4,675 1.42 2004/05 59.4 5,201 1.14 2005/06 53.2 5,893 0.90 2006/07 46.8 5,516 0.85 25.2 57% 2007/08 31.9 5,318 0.60 18.4 48% 2008/09 38.7 5,596 0.69 23.3 50% 2009/10 46.8 5,545 0.84 19.0 43% 2010/11 44.2 5,870 0.75 14 Assessments Rates Although 2010 rates increased on average 5.5%, they remain significantly below those at ASP inception… 27 7% 6 A2 36 34 7% 7 8 A3 Baa1 44 58 41 55 7% 5% 9 Baa2 71 66 7% 10 Baa3 90 83 8% 11 Ba1 124 119 5% 12 13 Ba2 Ba3 142 170 136 156 5% 9% 14 B1 244 237 3% 15 B2 293 283 4% 16 B3 355 338 5% 1. Moody’s equivalent Source: CA Self Insurers’ Security Fund Past performance does not guarantee future results -34% 400 300 -57% 200 -33% 100 -38% -40% 0 B3 29 B2 A1 10/11 B1 5 09/10 500 Ba3 5% 6% Ba2 20 23 Ba1 21 24 Baa3 Aa2 Aa3 Baa2 3 4 Baa1 3% A3 17 A2 18 A1 Aa1 03/04 Aa3 2 600 Aa2 %Δ 3% Aa1 09/10 16 Aaa 10/11 16 Rate - basis points Index Rating1 1 Aaa 15 Financial Strength Financial Strength Assets … and gross assets have increased 629% since ASP inception… 350 Net 327 Capital Target Gross (Net Assets) 300 275 250 216 153 $ millions 204 191 200 150 143 155 149 113 109 101 79 100 50 229 52 45 0 (3) (50) (55) (100) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Current 1 1. Unaudited Sep 30, 2010 Past performance does not guarantee future results. 17 Financial Strength Recent defaults A summary of the Fund’s claim reserves is as follows… Default 7/21/2010 8/3/2009 4/3/2009 3/30/2009 11/25/2008 Estate Triple A Machine Shop Fleetwood Circuit City Stores Fairchild Mervyn's 2008-Current 2007 & Prior 64 Estates Total Reserves (Net) 197,950 27,340,033 18,374,074 1,464,960 30,626,968 SISF Paid Ultimate Loss Cost Security Deposit Over/(Under) 2,405,606 3,499,705 1,053,653 4,404,129 197,950 29,745,639 21,873,779 2,518,613 35,031,097 292,901 11,563,964 14,119,256 1,141,943 720,000 94,951 (18,181,675) (7,754,523) (1,376,670) (34,311,097) 78,003,985 11,363,093 89,367,078 27,838,064 (61,529,014) 42,240,382 167,600,003 209,840,385 100,415,453 (109,424,932) 120,244,367 178,963,096 299,207,463 128,253,517 (170,953,946) The Fund has been carefully following the ongoing conservation of Contractors Access Program, and has sufficient financial resources to address any liabilities that may be assumed from this situation. Source: CA Self Insurers’ Security Fund Independent Actuarial Report and Estate Financial Data Report 6/30/2010 Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18