ASEAN Economic Integration: Implications for Cambodia, Laos

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www.eria.org
The Voice of ASEAN Youth: ASEAN Priorities
and Challenges
Sothea OUM
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
The 8th Asia Economic Forum on “ASEAN in the Evolving Regional
Architecture: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Direction”
Hotel Sofitel Phnom Penh Phokeethra,
Phnom Penh, 16 -18 March 2012
1
AEC Vision and Blueprint: Key Initiatives Towards AEC
2
Transformation of International Commerce - 2nd Unbundling
in Manufacturing and Related service
Bay
A
Bay
B
Bay
A
Bay
C
Bay
B
Bay
C
Connecting factory & doing business abroad: The
“trade-investment-services nexus”
Bay A
Bay C
1) Two-way flows of goods, ideas, technology,
capital, and technicians.
2) Investment and application of technical,
managerial and market know-how abroad.
1) Necessary trade & service links
Connecting factories
- Trade policy barriers;
- Transportation services;
- Business mobility;
- Communication services.
3
Source: Baldwin (2011)
Bay B
2) Necessary “Behind the border
barriers” (BBB) reform
Doing business abroad
- International investment;
- Application of home’s technology abroad;
- Local availability of business services.
ASEAN Socioeconomic Landscape 1998 - 2009
1998
ASEAN
Cambodia
Laos
Myanmar
Vietnam
GDP
($m)
480,912.6
3,130.1
1,226.2
5,925.8
27,209.6
Trade
Intra-trade
($m)
($m)
576,108.0 120,918.0
1,967.8
688.2
922.3
666.9
3,771.9
1,189.4
20,861.0
5,406.6
ASEAN
Cambodia
Laos
Mynanmar
Vietnam
1,472,434.4
10,797.9
5,585.0
18,988.6
93,187.9
1,536,843.3
8,886.7
2,962.1
10,191.3
125,921.9
ASEAN
Cambodia
Laos
Myanmar
Vietnam
3.06
3.45
4.55
3.20
3.42
2.67
4.52
3.21
2.70
6.04
FDI
Intra-FDI
($m)
($m)
22,958.8 2,727.6
243.0
95.7
45.3
28.3
683.6
153.9
1,700.0
398.7
(%)
11.9
39.4
62.6
22.5
23.5
4,428.9
170.8
57.3
19.5
428.7
11.2
32.2
18.0
3.4
5.6
2542.2
768.4
885.7
587.3
1068.3
16.0
30.1
27.6
N.A
14.5
1.62
1.79
2.02
0.13
1.08
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
2.66
3.04
3.53
4.38
2.96
0.6
0.7
0.7
N.A
0.4
(%)
21.0
35.0
72.3
31.5
25.9
2009
376,207.3
24.5 39,623.0
2,097.9
23.6
530.2
2,478.2
83.7
318.6
5,262.4
51.6
578.6
22,121.5
17.6 7,600.0
2009/1998
3.11
1.2
1.73
3.05
0.7
2.18
3.72
1.2
7.03
4.42
1.6
0.85
4.09
0.7
4.47
Source: ASEAN Secretariat, World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, * Simple average for ASEAN (2008,2009)
4
GDP per Poverty
capita ($)
(%)*
956.2
28.0
253.1
42.0
251.0
38.6
134.1
23.0
360.9
37.4
HDI and Its Components in EAS countries
HDI Rank
Country
Life
expectancy
(years)
Ave. years
of
schooling
Exp. years of
schooling
GNI per capita (PPP
2005 US$)
2011
2010
2
2
Australia
0.929
81.9
12.0
18.0
34,431
5
12
3
11
New Zealand
Japan
0.908
0.901
80.7
83.4
12.5
11.6
18.0
15.1
23,737
32,295
15
26
12
27
South Korea
Singapore
0.897
0.866
80.6
81.1
11.6
8.8
16.9
14.4
28,230
52,569
33
61
37
57
Brunei
Malaysia
0.838
0.761
78.0
74.2
8.6
9.5
14.1
12.6
45,753
13,685
101
103
89
92
China
Thailand
0.687
0.682
73.5
74.1
7.5
6.6
11.6
12.3
7,476
7,694
112
124
97
108
Philippines
Indonesia
0.644
0.617
68.7
69.4
8.9
5.8
11.9
13.2
3,478
3,716
128
134
113
119
Viet Nam
India
0.593
0.547
75.2
65.4
5.5
4.4
10.4
10.3
2,805
3,468
138
139
122
124
Lao PDR
Cambodia
0.524
0.523
67.5
63.1
4.6
5.8
9.2
9.8
2,242
1,848
149
132
Myanmar
0.483
65.2
4.0
9.2
1,535
Source: UNDP (2011).
5
HDI
Index
Challenges: Closing Income Gaps
GDP
GDP per Capita
Required Annual Growth Rate for GDP Per Capita Covergence
to GDP Per Capita of Singapore*
2020
2050
2100
Country
Av.
Av.
2010
Growth
Growth GDP Per
($USbillio
2010 ( $US)
2000-2010
2000-2010 Capita
ns)
(%)
(%)
1 Brunei
12.37
1.52
29,674.82
(0.98)
N.A
2 Cambodia
11.63
7.94
813.80
6.61
53.20
3 Indonesia
706.75
5.23
2,974.03
3.94
34.58
4 Lao PDR
6.46
7.05
1,003.71
5.17
50.02
5 Malaysia
237.96
5.02
8,423.18
2.96
21.27
6 Myanmar
45.43
10.67
742.44
8.49
54.61
7 Philippines
199.59
4.74
2,123.01
2.58
39.19
8 Singapore
222.70
6.00
43,116.69
3.62
3.00
9 Thailand
318.91
4.40
4,992.43
4.07
27.78
10 Vietnam
103.57
7.22
1,173.55
5.85
47.69
Source: IMF (2011), World Economic Outlook 2011 and author's calculations
GDP
N.A
63.85
45.89
68.27
36.07
68.66
71.95
3.00
30.03
58.88
GDP Per
Capita
N.A
13.75
10.12
13.15
7.29
14.01
11.05
3.00
8.70
12.71
GDP
N.A
16.50
13.43
17.95
12.37
17.61
20.29
3.00
9.41
15.69
GDP Per
Capita
N.A
7.65
6.11
7.39
4.89
7.75
6.50
3.00
5.50
7.21
* By assuming that GDP Per capita in Singapore Grows at 3% Per Annum, in 2020 = 57,945, 2050=140,648, 2100=616,589.
All else contant
6
GDP
N.A
9.18
8.10
10.09
8.29
9.75
11.94
3.00
5.94
8.90
What does AEC look like in 2015?
Common
Market
Economic &
Monetary
Union
(range of nuance)
Customs Union
Free Trade Area
AEC 2015 is more than FTA. It aims for
a common market but not quite a
single market. It is not a customs union
and does not aim for economic and
monetary union.
NOTE:
Common Market range of
nuance: from free movement of goods
and freer flow of services, capital and
labor on one end, and on the other end,
a single market.
7
Challenges and Ways Forward
 Challenges
- Jobs, Jobs, and Jobs for new entrants to labor markets and business opportunities
- Master ASEAN language and new high skills to benefit from new industries
- Once AEC is further advanced, fiercer competition – standards and conformance,
technological gaps/frontiers, especially for SMEs
- Structural/sectoral adjustments , skill mismatch, dislocation, losers
 Ways forward
- Be better informed and prepared for AEC – mechanism/safety net to mitigate
-
8
potential negative effects
ASEAN activism - proactive be it business, political or cultural, policies that matter
to youth – Raise your voice to be heard
Compassionate, prosper-thy-neighbors – within and beyond borders
You(th) are deserved and should demand for Quality of Education, Education, and
Education !!!
Streamlining ASEAN studies into education system
“Don't ask what ASEAN can do for you, but what you can
do for ASEAN” - John F. Kennedy, the 35th President of the United States,
reincarnated as ASEAN Champion
Thank You
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
9
www.eria.org
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