Customer-Driven Distribution Systems

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Macro Issues
Philip C. Zerrillo Ph.D.
NU- Day 2
What Will Drive the
Performance of a Firm?
 Human resources.

Attracting, developing, retaining, and dismissing.
 New products.

Those that the market wants, those that allow us to enter market.
 Cost control.

Activity based costing, time-based costing.
 Capital management.

Steady capital flow, low cost sources, cash flow management.
 Good vision.

A succinct and directed strategy, well articulated and communicated.
The Drivers of Firm
Performance
Managerial
Performance
Industry
Structure
Macro
Environmental
Factors
Firm Performance cont.
 Environmental factors
•
•
•
•
•
•
Economy
Demography
Political/Legal
Social
Physical
Technological
Demand
Savings
Investment
Interest
Employment
Investment
Income
Employment
Income
Supply v. Demand
Supply





Slow growth
Stable
Low interest rates
Export growth
Domestic dampening
Demand
 Fast growth
 Higher interest rates
 Inflation
 Domestic stimulus
 Export less important
Populations-Selected Countries
Country
USA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
COLOM
PERU
ARG.
CHILE
1950
171
28
54
12
8
17
6
2000
314
99
170
42
26
37
15
% change
83
254
215
250
175
118
150
% of Population byAge
Americas- 2000
Country
USA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
COLOM
PERU
ARG
CHILE
Under 15
21.5
33.1
28.8
32.8
33.4
27.7
28.5
60 and over
16.2
6.9
7.8
6.9
7.2
13.3
10.2
Birth Rate/Death Rate/Density
Continent
BR
DR
Den (per km)
World
21.2
8.9
45
Africa
37.4
13.9
26
W/Europe
9.4
11.8
32
Aus/NZ
12.7
7.4
3
Asia
20.5
7.6
116
North Am
12.9
8.3
15
South Am
21.5
6.5
25
Life Expectancy / Birthrate
N.A. & S.A
Cnt
USA
Life X Life X Fertile Life X Life X
M (80) F(80) Rt (80) M (01) F(01)
71
78
1.8
74.6
80.4
Fertile
Rt (01)
2.1
MEX
65
71
4.3
70.4
76.4
3.2
BRAZ
61
66
3.7
64.7
72.6
2.9
PERU
58
62
4.7
67.3
72.4
3.4
ARG
67
74
3.2
70.6
77.7
2.8
CHILE 67
74
2.7
73
79
2.5
Life Expectancy / Birthrate
EUROPE
Cnt
Life X Life X Fertile Life X Life X
M (80) F(80) Rt (80) M (01) F(01)
Austr 70
77
1.6
75.4
81.5
Fertile
Rt (01)
1.24
Franc 71
79
1.9
75.2
82.8
1.8
Grec
73
78
2.0
75.9
81.2
1.24
Italy
71
78
1.6
75.5
81.9
1.20
Swe
73
79
1.6
77.6
82.6
1.29
Spain 73
79
1.9
75.4
82.3
1.13
Eng
na
na
75.7
80.7
1.61
En
na
Life Expectancy / Birthrate
Asia
Cnt
Life X Life X Fertile Life X Life X
M (80) F(80) Rt (80) M (01) F(01)
H-K 73
78
1.8
77.3
82.8
Fertile
Rt (01)
1.17
Japa 74
80
1.8
77.8
85
1.33
Sing 69
74
1.4
75.9
80.3
1.45
Thai 62
67
3.0
67.9
73.8
2.0
Kor
64
71
2.4
71.8
79.1
1.51
Phil
60
64
4.7
68
72
3.24
Mal
66
70
na
70.6
75.5
2.9
Population Ages
Asia
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Viet Nam
5-25
(80)
33.8
48.5
43.9
44.7
52.0
35.7
46.0
36.0
43.7
46.2
NA
60+
(80)
14.2
4.8
6.2
5.2
4.2
14.3
4.8
7.7
6.6
5.4
NA
5-25
(00)
28
45.5
40.8
40.4
41.2
29.2
44.8
27.4
37.3
36.2
43.8
60+
(00)
16.3
4.9
7.6
7.6
6.6
15.6
5.5
10.6
9.3
8.1
7.5
Life Expectancy
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Viet Nam
Life X
M(80)
71.9
50.1
55.3
54.5
66.0
70.7
60.2
69.2
67.0
62.6
56.7
Life X
F(80)
78.7
49.3
55.1
58.0
70.0
76.9
63.7
74.6
71.5
67.4
61.1
Life X
M(00)
76.4
60.6
63.6
65.3
70.6
75.3
68
75.9
69.9
67.9
66.9
Life X
F(00)
82
60.8
64.9
69.3
75.5
80.7
72
80.3
75.9
73.8
71.6
Birth Rates
Per 1000
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Viet Nam
1980
2000
21.0
48.1
36.2
38.1
35.2
22.3
38.4
21.2
24.4
39.1
39.3
13.9
43
28.7
24.6
25.8
15.3
31.2
12.7
18.6
18.1
28.9
Where Population Resides
COUNTRY
USA
MEXICO
BRAZIL
COLOM
PERU
ARG
CHILE
LARGEST
19.1
15.1
18.4
5.1
6.6
11.3
5.4
3 LARGEST
45.1
20.3
49.5
8.4
7.8
13.5
6
% POP
17.1
22
31
24
32
39
43
3 LARGEST % OF POP
45.1
20.3
8.4
7.8
13.5
6
Literacy
NA & SA





Mexico
Argent
Chile
Brazil
Peru
(M)
8.2 (F)
3.8
4.6
16.7
5.5
7.8
3.8
5.0
16.8
17
Literacy
Asia
 H-Kong
 Japan
 Thail
 Korea
 Philip
(M) 4.0
NA
(M) 4.0
(M) .7
(M) 5.0
(F)
(F)
(F)
(F)
11.8
NA
8.4
3.3
5.7
Literacy
Europe
 Greece
 Italy
 Spain
 Swe
(M)
(M)
(M)
(M)
4.8
4.8
2.5
2.4
(F)
(F)
(F)
(F)
3.2
2.3
5.8
2.3
What Advice Would you Give
to Mexico? Vietnam? China?
Why Did The US Economy
Slide?
 Greenspan?
 Exuberance?
 Taxes?
 Regulation?
What Will It Take to Make It
Pick Up?
What Will Happen to the
Structure of Industries?
Employment
(% Agriculture)
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Viet Nam
M(80)
7.2
62.5
64.2
56.0
31.9
13.2
55.1
2.0
37.2
69.8
F(80)
4.1
8.5
57.5
52.5
38.1
6.6
33.9
1.1
35.7
75.6
M(00)
6.1
NA
NA
53.0
21.5
NA
51.6
0.3
35.4
59.8
F(00)
3.6
NA
NA
56.0
16.8
NA
31.0
0.04
41.5
60.8
Employment
(% Professional)
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Viet Nam
M(80)
25.4
2.4
3.1
2.7
5.7
11.8
3.9
7.9
3.5
5.1
F(80)
11.0
3.1
2.3
3.2
7.0
17.7
9.8
9.3
9.1
3.2
M(00)
11.7
NA
NA
0.7
4.3
NA
2.0
9.2
1.5
NA
F(00)
14.4
NA
NA
0.6
5.0
NA
2.3
13.3
2.1
NA
Employment
(% Manufacture)
Australia
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
M(80)
44.4
14.6
16.2
20.7
26.8
46.6
15.8
39.8
25.4
11.8
F(80)
10.1
30.4
6.8
13.1
14.5
17.4
11.0
33.7
11.1
7.8
M(00) F(00)
17.8
8.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
8.7
12.0
20.0
29.4
NA
NA
8.4
12.7
26.0
26.1
11.3
27.0
10.0
12.2
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