At Risk Outcome Analysis

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At Risk Outcome Analysis
INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS OF INTAKES AND
OUTCOMES OF NYC ANIMAL CARE &
CONTROL
APRIL
2014
PREPARED BY THOMAS SCOPAC
Headlines

Intakes are increasing. 10% increase for period Dec through Feb. 15% increase in cat Intakes, 5% Increase in Dog
Intakes .



Even with added initiatives ACC direct placement is still only 27% of total placements. Before Adoption Councilors
added it was 25%


This is concerning since much of ACC strategy is based upon educing intakes
For Dogs for the period Jan & Feb intakes are up 7% and placements are down 2%
ACC Direct dog placements in Q 1 2014 is a smaller portion of the total 24% vs. 28 in 2013
The majority of dogs killed are considered adoptable to the public. In 2013 59% and Q1 14 57% dogs killed fell into
this category


Brooklyn is dramatically ahead where in 2013 66% and Q1 63 of dogs killed fell into this category
Over time this dynamic has become worse. Half 2 2012 28% of dogs killed fell into this category.
Dog & Cat Intake Trend Nov - Feb
2500
2000
1500
Sum of Prior
1000
Sum of Current
500
0
Row Labels
Jan
Feb
Dec
Grand Total
Jan
Feb
Dec
Sum of Prior
1784
1611
1782
Sum of Current
1876
1803
2031
Dogs and Cats
Prior
Current
Increase
1784
1876
92
1611
1803
192
1782
2031
249
5177
5710
533
%
5%
12%
14%
10%
Row Labels
Jan
Feb
Dec
Grand Total
Row Labels
Jan
Feb
Dec
Grand Total
Dog Intakes
Current
Increase
832
818
(14)
749
876
127
864
884
20
2445
2578
133
Prior
Cat Intakes
Prior
Current
Increase
952
1058
106
862
927
65
918
1147
229
2732
3132
400
%
-2%
17%
2%
5%
%
11%
8%
25%
15%
Adoptability of Dogs Killed
At Risk List Dogs Killed - System Total
YearQ
Shelter
Q 3 12
Total
Q 4 12
Total
Q 1 13
Total
Q 2 13
Total
Q 3 13
Total
Q 4 13
Total
Q 1 14
Total
Grand Total
Public
229
147
170
254
303
185
163
1451
At Risk List Dogs Killed - Manhattan Shelter
YearQ
Shelter
Q 3 12
MACC
Q 4 12
MACC
Q 1 13
MACC
Q 2 13
MACC
Q 3 13
MACC
Q 4 13
MACC
Q 1 14
MACC
Grand Total
Public
64
50
60
102
96
80
71
523
%
Rescue Only
26%
182
30%
114
46%
70
49%
105
52%
88
51%
77
51%
69
43%
705
%
Rescue Only
41%
334
41%
208
56%
136
60%
171
61%
196
59%
128
57%
124
53%
1297
Grand
Total
563
355
306
425
499
313
287
2748
At Risk List Dogs Killed - Brooklyn Shelter
Grand
Total
246
164
130
207
184
157
140
1228
YearQ
Shelter
Q 3 12
BACC
Q 4 12
BACC
Q 1 13
BACC
Q 2 13
BACC
Q 3 13
BACC
Q 4 13
BACC
Q 1 14
BACC
Grand Total
Public
165
97
110
152
207
105
92
928
%
Rescue Only
52%
152
51%
94
63%
66
70%
66
66%
108
67%
51
63%
55
61%
592
Grand
Total
317
191
176
218
315
156
147
1520
• Numbers of dogs killed based upon ‘At Risk List ‘ date from which they where killed
• Numbers of dogs killed based upon ‘At Risk List ‘ date from which they where killed
• Rescue Only is defined as dogs with no behavior rating or a behavior rating of NH Only. Adoptable is defined as all
other behavior ratings
• Outcomes based upon total number of dogs appearing on “At Risk List” each night in a given month
• Dogs may appear on a list multiple times during and across months, the time the dog ‘survived’ without an outcome is
captured in the “Carry Forward” category
Methodology

Bottom up analysis based upon unique dogs (A#) and frequency at which unique dogs appear on nightly “At Risk List”

Analysis is presented in two views




Analyze outcomes for both individual dogs and total published “At Risk List” aggregated by Month
Month is defined by date of publishing of specific “At Risk List”





Relative to “At Risk List” total population
Relative to unique dogs appearing on “At Risk List” during given period
Published “At Risk List” date is the night the list is issued by ACC.
Each day at 6 p.m. AC&C posts a listing of animals at risk for being euthanized the following morning.”
Outcomes are defined as disposition of the dogs from the specific lists defined by month they appear on the “At Risk
List”. In other words, the outcome date does not come into play for the analysis, only the outcome itself for a dog in the
months population. Therefore this analysis may not exactly match ACC statistics as those statistics are decoupled from
the At Risk List. Meaning ACC looks at dogs killed in a calendar month regardless of when , or if, they appeared on the
“At Risk List”
Behavior rating is obtained from ACC At Risk details and is arrived at by ACC Management
Average Days to Becoming Sick calculation. This is the difference in days between the initial medical exam rating and
the final medical exam rating where the initial medical rating was 1-Normal or “x”-NC and the final medical rating is
“x”-C. “x” represents the rating scale values of 2 - 5
*Sourced from ACC Website
Marketing Initiatives



Create Virtual Adoption wards

Behavior ratings and recommendation – “this dogs would be good …..”

Video and more photos highlighting the pets personality

This will be accessible both on the web and in the shelter and should be robust enough for use by the adoption
coordinators

This will supplement the limited adoption space in the shelters, so adoptable pets in the non public areas can have
exposure
Develop a rating system to identify which pets are at risk of qualifying for the “At Risk” list

Publish this rating to the rescues

Create a media mechanism to attract fosters for these pets
Improve social media presence

E.G. ACC has 7k eyeballs on Facebook where other sites promoting the At Risk pets have in excess of 100k
Analysis Support
Analysis of appearance on At Risk list Jul – Dec 13
Count of AC#Column Labels
Times on
List
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Grand Total
Grand
Killed
Placed RTO Total Killed %
726
773
9
1508
48%
109
235
1
345
32%
37
98
135
27%
10
40
50
20%
1
13
14
8%
1
4
5
25%
3
3
0%
1
1
0%
884 1167 10
2061
Analysis of appearance on At Risk list Jul – Dec 13
Dog appearing more than once
Count of AC# Column Labels
Times on List
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Grand Total
Killed
109
37
10
1
1
158
Grand
Placed RTO Total Killed %
235
1
345
98
135
40
50
13
14
4
5
3
3
1
1
394
1
553
29%
Analysis Support
Comparision 2013 to 2012 since AR Extension and Adoption Department Available to public
Outcome
Behavior Rating
Year
killed
(All)
2012
Outcome
killed
Behavior Rating (All)
Year
2013
Total Dogs Killed Column Labels
Row Labels
Public
Grand Total
7
70
70
8
96
96
9
64
64
10
84
84
12
50
50
Grand Total
364
364
Total Dogs Killed
Column Labels
Row Labels
Public
Grand Total
7
116
116
8
116
116
9
73
73
10
77
77
12
57
57
Grand Total
439
439
S.A.F.E.R Helper dogs killed
Count of AC#
Row Labels
201307
201308
201309
201310
201312
Grand Total
Column Labels
BACC
12
14
8
13
5
52
MACC SACC Grand Total
5
17
5
19
3
11
4
1
18
4
9
21
1
74
Brooklyn – Dogs killed since July
Outcome
killed
Behavior Rating (All)
Year
2013
Total Dogs
Killed
Row Labels
7
BACC
SACC
8
BACC
9
BACC
SACC
10
BACC
SACC
12
BACC
SACC
Grand Total
Column Labels
Public
75
73
2
73
73
61
61
53
51
2
29
27
2
291
Rescue Only Grand Total
31
106
31
104
2
54
127
54
127
24
85
23
84
1
1
24
77
22
73
2
4
19
48
17
44
2
4
152
443
ACC Intakes and Outcomes Dogs & Cats
ACC Intakes and Outcomes Dogs & Cats
ACC Intakes and Outcomes Dogs
ACC Intakes and Outcomes Dogs
ACC Intakes and Outcomes
Dogs & Cats
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
12 ForwardTotal
Intake
40,708
34,761
31,543
28,464
28,917
3,679
61,060
Euth
Intake Chg Euth Rate
11,347
28%
9,373
14.6%
27%
8,150
9.3%
26%
6,872
9.8%
24%
4,843
-1.6%
17%
333
9%
12,048
20%
Euth Rate Delta
Intake
12,489
11,667
11,630
10,816
10,864
1,694
23,374
Euth
Intake Chg Euth Rate
3,070
25%
2,417
6.6%
21%
2,295
0.3%
20%
1,967
7.0%
18%
1,789
-0.4%
16%
186
11%
3,942
17%
Euth Rate Delta
-3%
-4%
-7%
-31%
1974
1223
1278
2029
Dogs
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
12 ForwardTotal
-16%
-5%
-8%
-9%
Dogs
Jan
Feb
Jan & Feb 2014
% Change
Intakes
2013
2014
832
876
749
818
1,581
1,694
7%
Placements
2013
2014
657
696
699
627
1,356
1,323
-2%
653
122
328
178
ACC Intakes and Outcomes
Intakes and Placements for sample period
Dogs
Jul (baseline 2013)
Aug
Sep
Oct
Dec
Jan
Feb
% Change
Intakes
Prior
Current
978
1,085
1,029
1,058
927
909
849
927
864
885
832
876
749
818
6,228
6,558
5%
Placements
Prior
Current
581
658
647
640
588
642
521
604
616
576
657
696
699
627
4,309
4,443
3%
Sample Period is Jul 12 – Feb 13 to Jul 13 – Dec 14
Sample period chosen due to:
• Aligns with launch of Adoption Department
• Aligns with extension of At Risk List Hours
Excludes November due to Hurricane Sandy impact in 2012
ACC Placement Decision Guide July 2011
After AC&C has explored adoption, foster, and placement with New Hope partners
animals may be humanely euthanized with an injection of sodium pentobarbital in
accordance with AC&C’s policy for any of the following reasons:
• Medical or surgical conditions that require treatment beyond AC&C’s or New
Hope partner’s resources
• Behavioral conditions that require modification or management beyond AC&C’s
or New Hope partners’ resources
• Animals adopted and returned with documented medical or behavioral conditions
beyond AC&C’s ability to manage
• Underage kittens and puppies, particularly those less than four (4) weeks of age
without a queen or dam when New Hope or foster cannot be found
• Animals that are deemed a safety risk to humans or other animals, based on
history and/or observation
• Animals afflicted with an infectious disease for which resources are not available
for treatment and/or adequate facilities for isolation and containment of disease
• Owner request due to legitimate health or/and behavior concerns in accordance
with AC&C’s euthanasia policy (Note: owner request euthanasia cases still
require documentation, including scanning for microchip, photograph, and brief
medical summary of the animal’s condition)
• Shelter capacity to house, care for, and meet the physical and behavioral needs
of the animal
Sourced from ACC Website
ACC Behavior Rating Standards


At AC&C, an animal's behavior is determined by looking at all information available. This includes observations made
by staff and volunteers throughout the animal's time at the Care Center, information provided by an owner (if available)
and assessments conducted by behavior staff. Cat assessments are completed by staff members trained in cat behavior.
Dogs are assessed using SAFER, a nationally recognized scientifically-based aggression assessment used to help predict
possible future aggression in the home. We recognize that an animal's behavior might be different in a shelter
environment from its behavior in the public. For more information on SAFER, please click here.
At the conclusion of an assessment, AC&C compiles all of the information available and an animal is categorized into
one of the following behavior designations that describes the best placement option for the animal based on available
information regarding the animal's behavior. The behavior designations are: Beginner Home, Average Home,
Experienced Home, Experienced Home/No Children, New Hope Only, and No Placement. Click here to view Animal
Care & Control's complete Behavior Designation policy. Due to limited resources, AC&C is unable to significantly
modify animal behavior in our Center Centers. Therefore animals needing significant training to address aggression
issues are designated at New Hope Only.
Sourced from ACC Website
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