AP Statistics Probability Problem 1 Suppose you are given a standard 6-sided die and told that the die is “loaded” in such a way that while the numbers 1, 3, 4, and 6 are equally likely to turn up, the numbers 2 and 5 are three times as likely to turn up as any of the other numbers. Fill in the following probability distribution table: Outcome Probability 1 .1 2 .3 3 .1 4 .1 5 .3 6 .1 2 Problem 2 Outcome Probability 1 .1 2 .3 3 .1 4 .1 5 .3 6 .1 Let A be the event: the number rolled is a prime number (a number is prime if its only factors are 1 and the number itself; note that 1 is not prime). List the outcomes in A and find P(A). A = {2, 3, 5} P(A)=P(2) + P(3) + P(5)= 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.7 3 Problem 3 Outcome Probability 1 .1 2 .3 3 .1 4 .1 5 .3 6 .1 Let B be the event: the number rolled is an even number. List the outcomes in B, and find P(B). B = {2, 4, 6} P(A)=P(2) + P(4) + P(6)= 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.5 4 Problem 4 Outcome Probability 1 .1 2 .3 3 .1 4 .1 5 .3 6 .1 Are events A and B disjoint? Explain briefly. No the events are not disjoint. Since both A and B contain the outcome 2, the events have an intersection and are not disjoint. 5 Problem 5 Outcome Probability 1 .1 2 .3 3 .1 4 .1 5 .3 6 .1 Determine if events A and B are independent. We know that P(A and B) = P(A)P(B) if and only if they are independent. We also know that P(A and B) = 0.3; P(A) = 0.7, and P(B) = 0.5 However, P(A and B) ≠ P(A)P(B) since P(A and B) = 0.3 and P(A)P(B) = (0.7)(0.5) = 0.35. Therefore, A and B are not independent. 6 Problem 6 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. What is the probability of the event {A or B} that Consolidated will win at least one of the jobs? P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) = 0.7 + 0.4 – 0.2 = 0.9 7 Problem 7 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. Draw a Venn diagram that shows the relation between the events A and B S A 0.5 B 0.2 0.2 0.1 8 Problem 8 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. Write each of the following events in terms of A, B, AC, and BC. Find P(Consolidated wins both jobs) P(A and B) = 0.2 9 Problem 9 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. Write each of the following events in terms of A, B, AC, and BC. Find P(Consolidated wins the first job but not the second) P(A and BC) = 0.5 10 Problem 10 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. Write each of the following events in terms of A, B, AC, and BC. Find P(Consolidated does not win the first job but does win the second) P(AC and B) = 0.2 11 Problem 11 Consolidated Builders has bid on two large construction contracts. The company president believes that the probability of winning the first contract (event A) is 0.7, that the probability of winning a second (event B) is 0.4, and that the probability of winning both jobs is 0.2. Write each of the following events in terms of A, B, AC, and BC. Find P(Consolidated does not win either job) P(AC and BC) = 0.1 12 Assignment Chapter 15 Lesson: Probability Read: Worksheet: Chapter 15 Probability WS 13