INEQUALITY AND POVERTY ECO 2023 Principles of Microeconomics Dr. McCaleb Inequality and Poverty 1 TOPIC OUTLINE I. Income Inequality in the United States II. Income Distribution and Economic Status III. Poverty and Income Redistribution Inequality and Poverty 2 Inequality in the United States Inequality and Poverty 3 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Income Distribution in the U.S., 2005 Household money income The following chart illustrates the distribution of household money income in the U.S. in 2005. Each slice of the pie shows the percent of total income received by the respective quintile. For example, the first, or bottom, quintile received 3.4% of total money income and the fifth, or top, quintile received 50.4% of total money income. A quintile is 20% of all households. Therefore, each quintile contains the same number of households, approximately 22,876,800. Inequality and Poverty 4 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Distribution of U.S. Household Money Income, 2005 1st 3.4% 2nd 8.6% 3rd 14.6% 5th 50.4% 4th 23.0% Inequality and Poverty 5 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Income Distribution in the U.S., 2005 Household money income statistics Median household income $ 46,326 Mean household income $ 63,344 Lowest and mean household income by quintile Lowest – – – – – First Second Third Fourth Fifth $ $ $ $ $ 0 19,179 36,001 57,661 91,706 Inequality and Poverty Mean $ 10,665 $ 27,357 $ 46,301 $ 72,825 $ 159,583 6 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES The Skewed Distribution of Income The distribution of income is highly skewed toward higher incomes. The median, or middle, income is greater than the mode, or most common income, . . . and the mean, or average, income is greater than the median*. There are many more people with incomes below the mean than above it, but the distribution has a long, thin upper tail representing a small number of people with very large incomes. *Data for 2000 Inequality and Poverty 7 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES • Historical Trends in Inequality Share (Percent) of Aggregate Household Income Received by Each Quintile Year First Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile 2005 3.4 8.6 14.6 23.0 50.4 2000 3.6 8.9 14.8 23.0 49.6 1990 3.9 9.6 15.9 24.0 46.6 1980 4.3 10.3 16.9 24.9 43.7 1970 4.1 10.8 17.4 24.5 43.3 1967 4.0 10.8 17.3 24.2 43.8 Inequality and Poverty 8 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Historical Trends in Inequality Between 1967, when the data series begins, and the mid-1970’s, income inequality measured by household money income narrowed. Since the mid-1970’s, income inequality measured by household money income has increased. Inequality and Poverty 9 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Historical Trends in Mean Household Income Although inequality has increased, the average household in every quintile had more purchasing power in 2005 than in 1967. Real income—mean household income adjusted for inflation—has increased in every quintile. Inequality and Poverty 10 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES • International Comparisons Share of Aggregate Individual Income Received by Lowest and Highest Quintiles in Selected Countries (World Development Report, 2005) Country First Quintile Fifth Quintile Ratio 5th/1st Japan 10.6 35.7 3.4 Germany 8.5 36.9 4.3 Canada 7.0 40.4 5.8 UK 6.1 44.0 7.2 U.S. 5.4 45.8 8.5 Russia 4.9 51.3 10.5 China 4.7 50.0 10.6 Mexico Brazil 3.1 2.0 59.1 64.4 19.1 32.2 Inequality and Poverty 11 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Income Mobility The income distribution is characterized by income mobility An estimated 20-40 percent of Americans move into a different income quintile each year. Primary reasons for changes in income are changes in marital status, changes in the number of workers in the household, and moving into or out of full-time, year-round employment. Inequality and Poverty 12 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Income Mobility, 1968-1991 The chart shows the percentage of individuals in families in each income quintile in 1968 who were in a different quintile in 1991. For example, 48.2% of individuals in families in the third quintile in 1968 had moved to a higher quintile in 1991 and 31.3% had moved to a lower quintile. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Inequality and Poverty 25.9 53.1 51.0 41.6 48.2 20.4 24.8 20.5 46.9 24.2 1st 2nd 53.7 58.4 4th 5th 31.3 3rd Moved to higher quintile Stayed same Moved to lower quintile 13 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Demographic and Economic Characteristics Differences between high-income and low-income households and families Demographic, education, and employment differences between highincome and low-income households and families explain much of the inequality in the distribution of income. While some of these differences are inherent to individuals, many are a result of people’s own choices. Inequality and Poverty 14 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Demographic Differences between High-Income and Low-Income Households First Quintile Fifth Quintile Location - Non-metro 21.2% 9.2% Region - South 40.2% 32.0% Race of householder Black 20.6% 5.8% Hispanic 13.4% 5.9% Family Status Married couple 17.9% 79.0% Female-headed family 19.7% 4.8% Non-family household 59.0% 12.5% Age of householder Under 35 23.5% 14.8% Over 65 37.1% 8.3% Inequality and Poverty 15 INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES Education and Employment Differences between High-Income and LowIncome Households First Quintile Fifth Quintile Education of householder* High school dropout 34.4% 2.6% High school graduate 35.9% 16.2% Some college 21.6% 23.1% Bachelor’s degree 5.7% 32.9% Advanced degree 2.5% 25.1% Employment of householder Full-time 23.2% 79.6% Part-time 12.7% 9.1% No work during year 64.2% 11.3% Mean number of income earners 0.48 2.10 *Data for 2000 Inequality and Poverty 16 True (T) or false (F): Between 1967 and the mid-1970’s, household money income became more equally distributed but since the mid-1970’s inequality has increased. Inequality and Poverty 17 True (T) or false (F): Mean household income adjusted for inflation has increased in every quintile since 1967. Inequality and Poverty 18 Income Distribution and Economic Status Inequality and Poverty 19 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Problems in Measuring Inequality Annual money income is not a good measure of standard of living or economic status Living standards depend on ability to consume. Annual money income exaggerates inequality in ability to consume because of • • • • taxes and transfers the economic life cycle transitory income household size. Inequality and Poverty 20 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Taxes and Transfers Disposable income is more equally distributed than annual money income Consumption depends on disposable income, after payment of taxes and receipt of transfers, not on annual money income. To measure ability to consume, taxes should be deducted from annual money income and the value of non-cash transfers (public housing and Medicaid, for example) should be added to annual money income. Inequality and Poverty 21 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Adjusting Annual Money Income for Taxes and Transfers The distribution of disposable income is more equal than the distribution of annual money income. The ratio of the fifth quintile to the first quintile decreases from 14.82 to 10.75. First Second Third Fourth Fifth Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Annual Money Income 3.4 8.6 14.6 23.0 50.4 Disposable Income* 4.4 9.9 15.3 23.1 47.3 *Annual money income minus taxes plus non-cash transfers Inequality and Poverty 22 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS The Economic Life Cycle Consumption is influenced more by lifetime income than annual money income There is a predictable pattern to lifetime income called the life cycle pattern of income. While income levels may differ widely between lower-income and upper-income households, the income of households at all income levels follows the life cycle pattern. Inequality and Poverty 23 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Life Cycle Pattern of Income $26,036 65 and over 55-64 Median household income by age of householder in 2005 clearly displays the life cycle pattern of income. $52,260 45-54 $62,424 35-44 Income rises from age 15-24 to the peak earning years of 44-55 and then decreases, falling sharply after age 65. $58,064 25-34 $47,379 $28,770 15-24 $0 Inequality and Poverty $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 24 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS The Economic Life Cycle Lifetime income and consumption are more equally distributed than annual money income • Younger households borrow, enabling them to consume more than their incomes. • Older households use up accumulated savings, enabling them to consume more than their incomes. • Households in their peak earning years pay off their debts and accumulate savings, consuming less than their annual incomes. Inequality and Poverty 25 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS The Economic Life Cycle Using annual money income creates apparent inequality where there is none Two households at different stages of the life cycle may have very different annual money incomes in one year but have the same lifetime income, the same consumption, and the same economic status or standard of living. Inequality and Poverty 26 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Transitory Income Consumption depends more on permanent income than on transitory income Transitory income refers to changes in income that are are not expected to last for more than one or a few years at most. Transitory income can be either positive, raising a household’s annual money income above its long-term average, or permanent income, or negative, reducing a household’s annual money income below its permanent income. Inequality and Poverty 27 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Transitory Income Common reasons for transitory income • Unemployment • Time out of the labor market for domestic responsibilities or education or training or illness • Short-term business losses or successes • Sales commissions and bonuses • Irregular and fluctuating incomes characteristic of certain occupations and businesses • Gambling winnings or losses, random events, “lucky breaks”, “bad breaks” Inequality and Poverty 28 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Transitory Income Transitory income and inequality When annual money income is below the household’s expected longterm average, or permanent, income, the household reduces consumption but not by as much as the decrease in income. When annual money income is above permanent income, the household increases consumption but not by as much as the increase in income. Transitory income is an additional reason that consumption and living standards are more equally distributed than annual money income. Inequality and Poverty 29 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC STATUS Household Size Household income is not adjusted for household size A household’s standard of living depends on the number of individuals who depend on the household’s income for consumption. Household size increases as household income increases. Higher income households have more individuals to support so individual income and consumption is more equally distributed than household income. First Second Third Fourth Fifth Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Mean Household Size (2000) 2.90 2.99 Inequality and Poverty 3.22 3.33 3.41 30 The distribution of annual money income is not a good measure of inequality in economic living standards because i. the distribution of disposable income is more equal than the distribution of annual money income. ii. consumption is determined by average expected lifetime or permanent income which is more equally distributed than annual money income. iii. low income households are on average smaller than high income households. 1. i and ii 2. i and iii 3. ii and iii 4. i, ii, and iii Inequality and Poverty 31 Poverty and Income Redistribution Inequality and Poverty 32 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Poverty Measuring poverty Poverty rate: The percentage of families whose annual money income is below the poverty income threshold. If income falls below the threshold, all individuals in the family are officially classified as poor. The poverty rate in 2005 for families was 9.9 percent. The poverty rate for individuals was 12.6 percent. About 37 million people were officially classified as poor. Inequality and Poverty 33 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Poverty Poverty income threshold Defining the poverty income threshold is not a scientific endeavor. The threshold is three times the estimated cost of a nutritionally adequate diet as determined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It varies by family size and composition and has been updated annually for inflation. In 2005, the average poverty income threshold for an individual was $9,973 and for a four-person family it was $19,806. Inequality and Poverty 34 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Trends in Poverty Rates The white poverty rate fell during the 1960’s and has been constant since then. The black poverty rate is higher than the white poverty rate but it has fallen more and continued falling over the past 30 years. The Hispanic poverty rate is similar to the black poverty rate but it increased during the 1980’s before falling during the 1990’s. Inequality and Poverty 35 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Who Are the Poor? Characteristics of Poor Families 2005 50.5% of poor people lived in female-headed families. Percent of poor families headed by: Female Black 50.5% 27.5% Poverty rates are highest for people in families with no workers and in female-headed families. Percent of poor people in: Married-couple families Female-headed families White families Black families Families with no workers 5.9% 31.1% 8.7% 23.6% 27.3% Poverty rates are lowest for people in married couple families and in white families. Percent of people in poor families: Under 18 Over 65 27.5% of poor people lived in families headed by a black person. Inequality and Poverty 17.1% 13.9% 36 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Poverty Is Not Permanent There is a high degree of income mobility in the population, even among the poor. More than half of poor people are in poverty for less than 6 months at a time, but many move into and out of poverty frequently. Only about one-third of the poor are in poverty for more than a year and fewer than 10% for more than 3 years. Inequality and Poverty 37 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Income Redistribution Three kinds of anti-poverty programs • Cash transfers to the poor such as Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) • Non-cash transfers such as food stamps, Medicaid, and public housing • Regulatory policies such as rent controls and minimum wage laws. Inequality and Poverty 38 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Income Redistribution Non-cash transfers are inefficient Most anti-poverty programs provide non-cash transfers to the poor. Non-cash transfers are less efficient than cash. For the same dollar expenditure of taxpayer money, the poor would be as well off or better off if they received cash. With cash they could consume goods that provide the greatest marginal benefit. Non-cash benefits may not change the poor’s consumption patterns. The transfer replaces cash they would have spent on their own. They use their own cash for goods that provide greater marginal benefit. Inequality and Poverty 39 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION Income Redistribution Regulatory policies are inefficient Regulatory policies are inefficient and often ineffective. A regulatory policy is like a tax on producers with the proceeds used to finance a subsidy to consumers. But the subsidy is provided to all consumers, non-poor as well as poor. Therefore, the cost of providing $1 of benefit to the poor is much greater than $1. Regulatory policies also give rise to a deadweight loss that reduces the aggregate income of the economy. Inequality and Poverty 40 Why is the mother in the video unhappy about receiving the house? i. Her welfare payment isn’t enough to pay the mortgage. ii. She would have preferred cash to a house. iii. Her welfare payment will be reduced because she has the house. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. i only ii only iii only i and ii i and iii ii and iii i, ii, and iii Inequality and Poverty 41 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION An Anti-Poverty Impossibility Theorem Three goals of an ideal poverty program High guaranteed minimum income: Raise the incomes of all poor above the poverty line. Low break-even income level: redistribution to the poor. Keep costs low by targeting Low benefit reduction rate (or marginal tax rate): Provide positive incentives for the poor to help themselves by working and earning income. Inequality and Poverty 42 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION An Anti-Poverty Impossibility Theorem Ideal policy is an impossibility The three goals are mutually inconsistent. It is impossible to achieve all three. The trade-off among the goals is illustrated by the negative income tax. The negative income tax has never been adopted but it is often proposed as a single cash program to replace the many current cash and in-kind transfer programs. Inequality and Poverty 43 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION An Anti-Poverty Impossibility Theorem Illustration: Negative income tax A negative income tax provides every household with a guaranteed minimum annual income and taxes all market income at a fixed marginal tax rate. The negative income tax is the simplest possible anti-poverty program. Individuals whose income exceeds a specified amount pay tax. The higher the income, the larger the tax. Individuals whose income is below the specified amount receive a transfer from the government. The lower the income, the larger the transfer. Inequality and Poverty 44 Negative Income Tax (1) With no income redistribution, income after redistribution equals market income. Households are located along the blue 45o line. With a negative income tax, households are located along the red line. Families below the breakeven income receive transfers. Families above pay taxes. Income after Redistribution ($000) POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION 100 80 60 40 Breakeven income 20 0 Inequality and Poverty 0 20 40 60 80 100 Market Income ($000) 45 Negative Income Tax (2) Suppose the guaranteed minimum income equals the poverty income threshold. Suppose the marginal tax rate equals the rate currently imposed on middle and upper income families. The breakeven income must be 2.5 times the poverty income threshold. More than half of all families receive transfers. Income after Redistribution ($000) POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION 100 80 Marginal tax rate=35.65% 60 40 Breakeven income=$44,831 income 20 Guaranteed minimum income=$17,603 0 Inequality and Poverty 0 20 40 60 80 100 Market Income ($000) 46 Negative Income Tax (3) Suppose the cost of the program is reduced by reducing the breakeven income to $26,405. Retain the guaranteed minimum at the poverty income threshold. The marginal tax rate must be 66.67%, higher than the highest rate imposed on the highest income families. Income after Redistribution ($000) POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION 100 80 Marginal tax rate=35.65% Marginal tax rate=66.67% 60 40 Breakeven Breakeven income=$44,831 income=$26,405 20 Guaranteed minimum income=$17,603 0 Inequality and Poverty 0 20 40 60 80 100 Market Income ($000) 47 Negative Income Tax (4) To improve work incentives for the poor, reduce the benefit reduction rate back to 35.65%, but keep the breakeven income at $26,405. Now, the guaranteed minimum income must be $9,413, only about half the poverty income threshold, leaving the poorest families in poverty. Income after Redistribution ($000) POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION 100 80 60 Marginal tax rate=66.67% rate=35.65% 40 Breakeven income=$26,405 20 Guaranteed minimum income=$17,603 income=$9,413 0 Inequality and Poverty 0 20 40 60 80 100 Market Income ($000) 48 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION An Anti-Poverty Impossibility Theorem Every anti-poverty program faces the trade-off among the three goals The three elements of the negative income tax—guaranteed minimum income, breakeven income, and benefit reduction rate—are features of every anti-poverty program. The trade-off among these three elements exists in every anti-poverty program. Disagreement and debate about welfare is really disagreement and debate about which of the three goals of the ideal anti-poverty program is more important. Inequality and Poverty 49 According to the statements in the video, why are these poor people standing in line for food? 1. They are hungry and have no money to buy food. 2. They are homeless. 3. They have no transportation to the grocery store. 4. The food is free (except for the opportunity cost of their time). Inequality and Poverty 50 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION What Does It Mean To Be Poor Today in America? Housing 41% of poor households own their own homes. The average home has 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a garage and a porch or patio. More than 750,000 poor people own homes worth more than $150,000; nearly 200,000 own homes worth more than $300,000. Nearly 60% of poor households have two or more rooms per person. The average poor American has one-third more living space than the average Japanese and four times as much as the average Russian. Inequality and Poverty 51 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION What Does It Mean To Be Poor Today in America? Nutrition 84% of the poor say they have enough to eat; 13% say they sometimes do not have enough to eat; 3% say they often do not have enough to eat. Average consumption of protein, vitamins, and minerals is virtually the same for poor and non-poor children. Average protein consumption of poor children is 100% above recommended levels. Poor children consume more meat than higher-income children. Most poor children today grow up to be one inch taller and 10 pounds heavier than the average World War II soldier. Inequality and Poverty 52 POVERTY AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION What Does It Mean To Be Poor Today in America? Possessions Item Approximately One car 70% Two or more cars 27% One color TV 97% Two or more color TV’s 50% One VCR 75% Two or more VCR’s 20% Microwave oven 64% Stereo system 50% Automatic dishwasher 25% Two-thirds have A/C compared with 36% of all Americans 30 years ago. Inequality and Poverty 53