Australian Mobile
Telecommunications Association
Productivity - Connectivity - Mobility
Mobile Broadband
A Key Economic Driver
Overview
• Broadband is the centrepiece of the digital age
• NBN in partnership with latest generation mobile
telecommunications will drive our digital economy
• Aim to deliver - Productivity - Connectivity - Mobility
• Spectrum is critical mobile infrastructure
• What do Australian mobile operators need ?
– retention of existing bands
– access to Digital Dividend (700MHz) and 2.5GHz
• The risk of indecision – Australia must keep up!
Latest data (June 30 2008)
Australian Communications and Media Authority
•
The number of 3G subscriptions grew by 88% in 2007-08 from
4.6 million to 8.6 million
•
There were 22.12 million mobile phone services in
Australia at June 30 2008, up from 21.26 million
•
The welfare gained by customers (consumer surplus) from
using mobile telecommunications services was $3,287.80
million compared to $317.50 million for internet services. The
ACMA report says the majority of the increase in the consumer
surplus is attributable to changes in the mobile
telecommunications sector as prices fell and subscriber
demand grew
•
In estimating the consumer surplus for mobiles, ACMA
calculated that mobile phone calls fell in price by 21.5% and
the price of SMS/MMS decreased by 41.5%.
Economic Contributions of Mobile
Telecommunications
16.0
$7.73 b
$14.20 b
Indirect Contribution
Total Contribution
14.0
$ billion
12.0
10.0
8.0
$6.47 b
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Direct Contribution
Source: Access Economics 2008
Mobile Broadband - economic
contribution
Why mobile broadband will continue to drive productivity
gains across all sectors of the Australian economy
Current
Forecast
• As at June 2008 there were an
estimated 1m mobile broadband
connections via fixed CPE, data
card, USB modem, handset as
modem or embedded connection*
• Increasing take up of 3G data services will
contribute an additional $2.1 billion to
Australia’s economic input by 2010**
• Annual real household consumption will be
1.4% greater than it would be in a
scenario without mobile broadband
services^
• Real GDP increases by 0.9% more than
it otherwise would without mobile
broadband^
*3G in Australia: HSPA mobile broadband boom, Ovum, 10 November 2008
**Australian Mobile Telecommunications Industry: Economic Significance and Contributions, Access Economics, 2008
^ NextG Productivity Impacts Study, Concept Economics, 13 February 2009
Demand for Mobile Broadband – Fact or Fiction?
Broadband subscription forecast
Fixed
2100
Mobile
Subscriptions (Millions)
1800
1500
1200
900
600
300
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Mobile Broadband includes: CDMA2000 EV-DO, HSPA, LTE, Mobile WiMAX, Other
Fixed broadband includes: DSL, FTTx, Cable modem subs and other
Mobile Broadband 2/3 of all subscriptions by 2012
Source: Ovum RHK & Internal Ericsson
de title
40 pt
subtitle
24 pt
Technology
Mobile Broadband speed evolution
Text
24 pt
vel 2-5
20 pt
LTE - Advanced
LTE
HSPA+
Market impact
Peak rate
Typical user rate downlink
Typical user rate uplink
2009
2010
~2014
42 Mbps
~150 Mbps
~1000 Mbps
1-10 Mbps
10-100 Mbps
Operator dependent
0.5-4.5 Mbps
5-50 Mbps
Operator dependent
Today, most regional areas have access to average 8Mbps services with HSPA+
2
2009-06-02
Top right
corner for
field-mark,
customer or
partner logotypes.
See Best practice
for example.
Global Spectrum Demand Forecast
2010 - 2020
M.2078:
1300 MHz
??
M.2078:
840 MHz
Dec 2013
919 MHz
evolving to 4G
700 MHz:
126 MHz
Today:
380 MHz
2010
3G & LTE
2.3 GHz:
98 MHz
3G & HSPA
3.6 GHz:
125 MHz
3G,
2G & 3G
HSPA & LTE
2.5 GHz:
190 MHz
LTE & 4G
793 MHz
Australia
Spectrum bandwidth
M.2078:
1720 MHz
2015
Source: ITU-R Report M.2078 (2007) Demand Forecast 2010-2020
2020
Retention of existing bands
Incumbent spectrum
licences in 800MHz,
1800MHz and
2100MHz expire from
2013 -17
No guarantee that
incumbents will retain
use of existing
spectrum licences
Impacting investor
confidence in next
generation networks
‘AMTA supports the Minister
making a determination
under s.82(3) of the
Radcoms Act 1992 that
mobile telecommunications –
including future mobile
broadband services are a
class of services where
reissuing spectrum licences
to incumbents is in the public
interest’
Getting the most out of the digital
dividend
• Research shows that the Australian Economy will be $7 to $10
billion better off if the Government unlocks the full potential of the
digital dividend to support both broadcast and mobile use*
‘AMTA considers that demand for mobile
broadband will require at least 120+MHz
of usable UHF spectrum to be allocated
to the mobile industry’*^
• Support for allocation of the Digital Dividend for mobile broadband
use avoids Australia being isolated from the emerging global
band plan
•Spectrum Value Partners, ‘Getting the Most out of the Digital Dividend’, April 2009
Getting the most out of the digital dividend
Net value added ($bn)
10
9
8
7
1. M obile ubiquitous / FTA market conservative
2. M obile ubiquitous / FTA market aggressive
6
3. M obile complementary / FTA market aggressive
4. M obile supplementary / FTA market conservative
5
40 MHz
60 MHz
80 MHz
100 MHz
120 MHz
140 MHz
UHF spectrum allocated to mobile broadband (MHz)
- UHF value maximised
Reallocation of 2.5 GHz for mobile use
• 2000
• International agreement on International Mobile
Telecommunications (IMT) use reached
• Universal international roaming band for LTE
• 2008
• “This is not a healthy environment for business
investment” Senator Conroy, RadComs, 2008
• Govt announced ‘way forward’ - limited progress
• 2009
• No certainty - LTE deployment, ENG redeployment
• 2010 >
• Roll out plans from 2010 (US) - many other
countries 2011 - 2013
Australia urgently needs conformity with global
band plan
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile demand growth (3G) strong and prices falling – ACMA
Mobile economic contribution – direct and indirect – Access
Mobile Broadband – productivity enabling technology
Global and local demand for mobile broadband on the rise
Technology pathway – speed and capacity evolution
New spectrum allocations – critical future infrastructure
Key spectrum issues;
– Retention of existing bands – re-issue licences
– Digital Dividend (700MHz) – unique opportunity - $7 - $10 billion
from optimal allocation – latest research
– 2.5GHz spectrum band key to 4G and beyond
• Australia must keep up.