Steamboat Springs
Economic Summit 2010
The Changing Tourism Environment
RRC Associates, an STR Company
May 20, 2010
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 2
Sales and Lodging Tax
• Mountain town sales tax down 12.3%
in 2009
• Steamboat Springs taxable sales
down 16.7% in 2009
• Mountain town lodging tax down
19.1% in 2009
• Steamboat Springs lodging tax down
23.4% in 2009
Page 3
-10.0%
-20.0%
2006
Page 4
2007
Tow n
2008
-8.6%
2005
Va
-6.0%
in
ter il
Pa -14.8%
rk
2004
W
pe
n
Br
ec Avo -13.2%
ke
n
n
Cr
r
es idg
-12.0%
e
te
d
Bu
tte -13.8%
Di
llo
-9.7%
Du n
ra
Es ngo -13.2%
te
sP
Gl
ar
-6.8%
k
en
wo Fr
is
o
-4.6%
Mo d S co
un pri
n
t
Mt ain gs -14.0%
. C Vil
re lag -14.2%
ste
e
d
B
S
Sn ilve utte -13.3%
ow rth
St mas orn -16.2%
e
ea
m s Vi
bo
l
at lage -12.3%
Sp
rin
Te gs -15.5%
llu
rid -16.7%
e
As
Percent Change from Year Prior
Taxable Sales
Selected Mountain Towns
• Sales taxPercent
fellChange
in
all
mtn.
towns
in Taxable
Sales from
Year Prior in 2009
40.0%
2009
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-40.0%
Page 5
Tow n
-20.5%
2008
-19.6%
2007
-22.4%
2006
Va
il
er
Pa
rk
1.8%
2005
in
t
20.0%
7.9%
2004
W
As
pe
n
Br Av o -24.8%
ec
ke n
Cr nri
d
es
te ge
d
Bu
-17.8%
tte
Di
llo
Du n
ra
-15.4%
n
Es go
te
s
Pa
-9.9%
rk
Gl
en
wo Fri s
-8.1%
co
od
M
ou Spr
in
nt
-3.5%
M a in gs
t.
Cr Villa-35.0%
es
te ge
d
Si But
-11.5%
te
Sn lve
ow rth
o
m
-14.2%
St
as rne
ea
sV
m
bo ill a
ge -22.2%
at
Sp
rin
-19.8%
gs
Te
l lu
-23.4%
rid
e
Percent Change from Year Prior
Lodging Taxable Sales
Selected Mountain Towns
Percent Change in Lodging Taxable Sales from Year Prior
• Lodging tax change more variable
80.0%
2009
60.0%
40.0%
0.0%
Share of Sales Tax by Season
Share of Taxable Sales by Season, Selected Mountain Towns
90.0%
Share of Taxable Sales May to Oct
80.0%
Share of Taxable Sales Nov to Apr
58.3%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
41.7%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
te
Mt
rP
.C
ar
re
k
st
ed
Mo
Bu
un
tte
ta
in
Vi
lla
Br
ge
ec
ke
nr
idg
e
St
ea
Av
mb
on
oa
tS
pr
ing
s
Di
llo
n
As
pe
n
Fr
isc
o
Te
llu
rid
Si
e
lve
Gl
r
th
en
or
wo
ne
od
Sp
rin
gs
Du
ra
ng
Cr
o
es
te
dB
ut
te
Es
te
sP
ar
k
Va
il
W
in
as
sV
illa
ge
0.0%
Sn
ow
m
Share of Taxable Sales by Season
70.0%
Page 6
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 7
Total United States
% Change YTD by Week
Most recent data shows US hotel
occupancy rising, ADR following
Occupancy % Chg
15%
ADR % Chg
12.6%
10%
5.7%
5.5%
5%
2.3%
1.4%
0%
-5%
2.4%
-0.4%
-4.3%
-2.4%
-3.6%
-4.4%
6.4%
-1.5%
-0.8%
-10%
Mar YTD
4/3
4/10
4/17
Page 8
4/24
5/1
5/8
Total United States
% Change 12 Mos Ended March
For past 12 months,
all US indicators down
4
2.8
3.1
-0.1
0
-4
-3.8
-2.9
-6.4
-8
-12
2009
-5.8
-6.5
-8.1
2010
-13.5
-16
Supply
Demand
Occupancy
Page 9
ADR
RevPAR
Resort Properties
% Change 12 Mos Ended March
2009 generally worse for resort
hotels, but over past 12 months,
indicators were less down for resort
hotels than for total US
10
1.5
1.5
0
-2.2
-7.2
-10
2009
-3.6
-8.6
-3.2
-9.6
-11.5 -12.8
2010
-20
Supply
Demand
Occupancy
Page 10
ADR
RevPAR
Resort Properties
% Change March 2010 YTD
Demand and occupancy were up in first three
months of 2010 for resort hotels. Rates and
RevPAR still negative, but improving.
10
5
4.5
1.7
3.1
1.4
0
-1.7
-5
-4.6
-10
-11.6
-15
-20
-25
2009
Supply
-13.1
-11.8
2010
-23.3
Demand
Occupancy
Page 11
ADR
RevPAR
Occupancy/ADR
% Change 12 Mos Ended March
Resort hotels down
similar to other
location segments
5
Occupancy
ADR
0
-1.7
-5
-2.9
-2.5
-3.7
-5.5
-6.5
-10
-7.4
-7.8
-8.8
-9.6
-11
-11.6
-15
Urban
Suburban
Airport
Page 12
Interstate
Resort
Small Metro
Occupancy/ADR
% Change March 2010 YTD
Resort hotel performance
mixed compared to other
segments over past 3 months
10
5.9
5
4.9
3.4
3.1
0
-5
-0.4
-3.2
-4.7
-1.2
-4.6
-6.0
-8.0
-10
-15
-2.3
Occupancy
ADR
Urban
Suburban
Airport
Page 13
Interstate
Resort
Small Metro
Mtn.
Town
vs.
US
ADR
Average Daily Rate at Mountain Resorts vs. U.S. Overall:
2005 to 2009
$300
$262
$245
$250
$215
$240
$229
-
ADR
$200
MTRiP ADR
U.S. ADR
$150
$100
$91
$98
$104
$107
$98
-
$50
$0
2005
2006
2007
Year
Page 14
2008
2009
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 15
MTRiP Data
• MTRiP collects reservation data from
hotels and property managers from 13
western mountain destinations
• Booking windows continue to shorten,
as consumers wait to plan their trips
until the last minute
• Lodging properties need to be
increasingly nimble and creative
Page 16
MTRiP Data
• Overall, last winter ADR was down, but
looking up for this summer
2008/09 2009/10 Change
Occupancy – last
6 months
40.3%
40.9%
+1.4%
Occupancy – next
6 months
12.5%
12.6%
+0.9%
ADR – last 6
months
ADR – next 6
months
$305
$287
-5.8%
$168
$173
+3.4%
Page 17
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 18
Travel Intentions
Survey
• Quarterly survey of
business and leisure
travelers
• Nationally
representative sample
of 3,806 respondents
• Explores current
sentiment, past travel
behavior, and future
travel intent
Page 19
Confidence Level in Stability of Job by Incidence of Mountain Travel
Confidence
in Stability of Job
60%
50%
Percent Responding
40%
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
48%
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
40%
39%
35%
30%
20%
20%
17%
10%
0%
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not at all confident
HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU IN THE STABILITY OF YOUR JOB OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
Page 20
Outlook on Business
Perceived Outlook for Business by Incidence of Mountain Travel
50%
46%
45%
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
45%
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
41%
39%
40%
Percent Responding
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
15%
13%
10%
5%
0%
Better
Worse
About the same
AND HOW ABOUT 6 MONTHS FROM NOW, DO YOU EXPECT THAT IN THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE BUSINESS
CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER, WORSE, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY
Page 21
Anticipated
Leisure Travel
Anticipations Regarding Leisure Travel Spend
by Incidence of Mountain Travel
Spending
60%
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
50%
51%
45%
Percent Responding
40%
37%
30%
30%
20%
19%
18%
10%
0%
More
Less
About the same
LOOKING OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, DO YOU ANTICIPATE YOU WILL SPEND MORE, LESS, OR ABOUT THE SAME
ON LEISURE TRAVEL
Page 22
Household
Income of
Annual Houeshold Income by Incidence of Mountain Travel
Travelers
30%
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
Average Household Income
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
$
101,924
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months $
78,757
25%
Percent Responding
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than
$25,000
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
$50,000 $74,999
$75,000 $99,999
$100,000 - $150,000 - $200,000 - $250,000 or
$149,999
$199,999
$249,999
more
Average Household Income
Page 23
Spending
on Leisure
Amount Spent on Leisure Travel Over Past 12 Months
of Mountain Travel
Travel inby Incidence
Past
12 Months
45%
42%
Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
40%
No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months
35%
Percent Responding
30%
25%
22%
21%
22%
22%
20%
20%
17%
16%
15%
9%
10%
10%
5%
0%
$1000 and Under
$1001 to $2000
$2001 to $4000
$4001 to $6000
More than $6000
WHAT WAS THE TOTAL AMOUNT YOUR HOUSEHOLD SPENT ON ALL TRAVEL COMPONENTS FOR THE LEISURE TRIPS YOU
HAVE TAKEN IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Page 24
Mountain Travelers
• Mountain travelers
take
more
trips, esp.
RRC Travel Intentions
Survey Q4
2009 Results:
Mountain Travelers vs. Other Leisure Travelers
special
event,
ocean/beach, touring, golf
90%
80%
Leisure Traveler (no mountain travel)
76%
Mountain Traveler
70%
66%
Percent Responding
60%
On average mountain travelers took 4.5
types of leisure trips in 2009 compared
to only 2.5 trip types for other leisure
travelers. In terms of total trip volume,
mountain travelers took twice as many
leisure trips in 2009.
53%
50%
43%
40%
38%
40%
31%
30%
26%
24%
27%
26%
20%
12%
25%
14%
21%
17%
14%
10%
10%
8% 10%
8%
3%
0%
Visit
City trip Special
with
event
family
trip
and
friends
Ocean
beach
resort
trip
Casino
trip
Touring
trip
Page 25
Travel Theme
abroad park trip
Cruise
trip
Other
Golf trip
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 26
Steamboat Summer
• Summer visitors have positive
impression of amenities/things to do,
the town in general, and friendly people
• Weaknesses include air transportation,
shopping/retail mix, prices, and
nightlife
• Stay an average of 5.3 nights
• 58% have made previous summer visit
• 42% have made previous winter visit
• Mainly families and empty nesters
Page 27
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 28
US Ski Season 2009/10
• Total skier visits of 59.7 million, up
4.2% from 2008/09
• All regions were up except Northeast;
all regions above 10-year average
• Snowfall down and/or variable
• Days open declined by 2 days nationally
• Visitation generally down in the early
season, up after New Year’s and up
strongly starting President’s Weekend
Page 29
US Ski Season 2009/10
• Overnight visitation, international
visitation, percent paid tickets, and
ticket yield all up slightly
• Lesson volumes increased
• Snowboarding inched up, to 32.5%
• Capital expenditures projected to rise
• Demographics continue to be
challenging
• Overall a positive season by many
measures
Page 30
Total Visits
• Total skier visits 2nd best ever, at 59.7 million
Northeast
Southeast
Midwest
Rocky Mountain
Pacific Southwest
65
60
55
54.0 52.5 54.1
52.1 52.2
57.3
54.4
57.6 57.1 56.9
58.9
Pacific Northwest
60.5
55.1
57.4
59.7
3.8
8.2
50
Skier Visits (millions)
45
40
20.7
35
30
25
7.8
20
6.0
15
10
13.3
5
Page 31
20
09
/10
20
08
/09
20
07
/08
20
06
/07
20
05
/06
20
04
/05
20
03
/04
20
02
/03
20
01
/02
20
00
/01
19
99
/00
19
98
/99
19
97
/98
19
96
/97
19
95
/96
0
Total Visits by Region
• All regions above their 10-year average
Estimated Skier Visits by Region
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
7.6
7.8
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.8
7.9
6.5
7.6
7.1
8.2
5
7.8
7.2
8.1
7.2
7.8
13.2
5.8
4.9
5.2
5.7
6.0
10
10-season avg.
19.8
12.5
11.8
14.3
13.7
13.3
Skier Visits (millions)
20
15
2009/10
20.7
20.8
21.3
20.0
20.7
25
2008/09
5.5
3.6
0
Northeast
Southeast
Midwest
Page 32
Rocky
Mountain
Pacific
Southwest
Pacific
Northwest
Percent Change in Skier Visits by Region
Preliminary Results
2009/10 vs. 2008/09
Regional Level Map
Pacific Northwest
+3.2%
Northeast
-2.8%
Midwest
+7.2%
Rocky Mountain
+3.4%
Southeast
+6.7%
Pacific Southwest
+14.8%
Percent
Change
in Visits
-5% or less
0% to -5%
0% to +5%
+5% to +10%
+10% or more
Page 33
Skier Visits by State
• Top 5 states account for over half of
total US skier visits
Page 34
Cumulative Visits by TOS
• Caught up to prior year by mid-Feb
Cumulativ e Skier Visits by Time of Season,
2009/10 v s. 2008/09
70.0
3.6%
4.2%
4%
60.0
0.5%
2%
50.0
0%
-2%
-3.9%
40.0
Percent Change
Skier Visits (Millions)
6%
-4%
30.0
Cumulative skier visits 2009/10
Cumulative skier visits 2008/09
Cumulative percent change
20.0
10.0
-12.2%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
0.0
-14%
Thru Dec 18
Thru Jan 3
Thru Feb 15
Page 35
Thru Mar 28
Total Season
Total ACTIVE Domestic
Skiers/Snowboarders:
Total Active Domestic Skiers/Snowboarders:
1996/97
to 2008/09
1997/1998
to
2008/2009
Total Active Domestic Skiers/Snowboarders (in millions)
12.00
10.50
9.87
9.64
10.00
10.07
9.65
9.29
8.76
10.37
10.04
9.88
9.59
9.22
8.76
8.00
6.00
4.00
Only about a 1% annual rate of
growth in participants since 1996/97
2.00
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Season
Page 36
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Tax Revenue
Hotel Occupancy/Rate
MTRiP
Travel Intentions
Steamboat Summer
Ski Resort Industry
Observations
Page 37
Looking Ahead…
Forecast of Selected Economic and Travel Indicators
2009 - 2011
• Rebound forecast in US travel
9.1%
10%
2009
2010f
2011f
8%
Change from Prior Year
6%
4%
2.5%3.0%
2.9%
2.1%
2%
6.2%
6.0%
4.8%
2.9%
0.3%
0%
-2%
-4%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-6%
-6.4%
-8%
-6.6%
-8.8%
-10%
Real GDP
Total Domestic
Person-Trips
Source: US Travel Association as of 2/2/10.
Total
International
Arrivals to the
U.S.
Page 38
Travel Price
Index
Total Travel
Expenditures in
U.S.
US Hotel Forecast
-10%
1.8%
3.5%
5.4%
-2.1%
-0.9%
-8.6%
-8.8%
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
-1.9%
-4.4%
-5%
1.3%
2.7%
6.2%
5.9%
7.5%
7.8%
0.3%
2.8%
5.5%
8.4%
0%
-0.3%
-15%
-20%
2004
2005
2006
2007
Page 39
2008
-16.7%
Yearly Change
5%
3.7%
4.2%
10%
8.1%
• GradualPercent
recovery
(esp. 2011)
Change in forecasted
US Hotel Performance
2009
2010P
2011P
Observations
• Taxable sales and lodging tax were
down in nearly all mountain
communities in 2009
• Steamboat’s sales tax base is less
seasonal than other mountain
communities
• Hotel occupancies and rates are
generally improving, with mountain
communities showing limited strength
• Mountain ADRs are predicted to rise
over next 6 months
Page 40
Observations
• Skier/snowboarder visits were up
despite a decline in days of operation
and snowfall
• Short booking lead time demands
creativity, constant monitoring, and
pro-active tactics to address anticipated
low points
• Mountain travelers are active and
engaged
• Macro-economic indicators are positive
Page 41
THANK YOU!
RRC Associates
an STR Company
www.rrcassoc.com